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February 15, 2007

Ethier Has an Arm (Well, Two - But You Get the Idea)

February 15, 2007 |  8:01 am

In this article rating outfield arms of 2006, John Walsh of The Hardball Times finds that both Luis Gonzalez and J.D. Drew were below average, Juan Pierre was below average but better than Kenny Lofton, and that Andre Ethier was tops among left fielders in baseball.

If you buy in, it means the Dodger outfield will be about as good at throwing runners out and holding them as it was last season.

Walsh writes:

I consider five different situations when an outfielder's throwing ability comes into play:

1. Single with runner on first base (second base unoccupied).
2. Double with runner on first base.
3. Single with runner on second base.
4. Fly out with runner on third base, fewer than two outs.
5. Fly out with runner on second base, fewer than two outs (third base unoccupied).

For those plays, I add up how often the runner is thrown out or how often the runner is "held," i.e. prevented from taking the extra base. A comparison with league average allows me to rate the outfielder's arm. ...

The Rodney Dangerfields of the outfield throwers, left fielders never get no respect. Nevertheless, many left fielders save (or cost) their team significant amounts of runs each season. The cream of the crop in 2006 was the Dodgers' Andre Ethier, who doubled his expected kill total and was also excellent at holding runners.

I don't recall anything exceptional, one way or another, about Ethier's arm. Ethier's ranking benefited from an assist rate that was double the league average, and it's true that rookies and/or weak arms are often tested so much that their assists rise unexpectedly. But Ethier also held more runners than the average left fielder, so something good was going on.

Or maybe teams were just waiting to hit the ball to Lofton.


Comments (389)

1.  I just had to join in. I have been reading this blog for about 1 year now and have enjoyed it so much, I think that I will throw my opinions out into the sphere and see what sticks. Hope you guys don't mind another opinion chiming in from time to time. Even if it is from a Southern transplant.

I am not too worried about the outfield because the cream will rise to the top. Come May or early June, I think that we are likely to see Ethier traded along with a pitcher for a bat and Loney will become an outfielder for a season or two until Kemp has some time in Vegas to sort out his breaking ball woes. Just my opinion.

2.  I never understood how Lofton could be that fast without lifting his knees.

Does anyone remember that Dave Parker throw to the plate on the old This Week in Baseball show? It was on the show fade-out reel. I don't think there's ever been anything like it.

3.  I remember seeing Bo Jackson make a catch against the wall in left field, then fire a rocket that the catcher had to raise his arm over his head to catch at home plate.

4.  2

That throw was from an All-Star game, wasn't it?

Yeah .... that was a beauty.

Too bad Parker didn't take care of himself ... he could have made the Hall.

5.  4 Yep, good memory, it WAS from the All Star game.

6.  1 - It remains to be seen whether the Dodgers actually make a trade. There isn't much power hitting sitting around (Dunn?) and we scored plenty of runs without much power last year. I could see a scenario where things go ok in spring training, and the start the season goes by without embarassment and nothing happens. Within the first two months, I think we will need a 6th starter and maybe 7th starter, so if he hasn't made a trade by then, then Colletti might be missing some of those bullets he has now. Hopefully if he does trade pitching it will be the Brett Tomko, Mark Hendrickson variety (both of which must have some value due to their extreme affordability in this market). If Joel Hanrahan is a getting a shot for the Nationals and Gil Meche is a 55 Million dollar player, than pitching is pretty valuable.

7.  Lemme throw my hat into the "stop talking about trading Ethier" ring. Quite the recurring theme around here. I love this guy.

8.  Welcome Cajun! Good to have you.

I'm not crazy about the idea of trading Ethier, or of trading any young outfielder in general. Whether or not he's got the best arm of leftfielders, he's certainly going to be the best the Dodgers have out there to start the season with, so I'd hate to see him flipped somewhere else to try to acquire more power - when it's highly possible both he (and Betemit/La Roche, and Loney, along with Kemp at some point) display more power, too.

9.  I believe that All-Star Dave Parker throw was at the Kingdome in '77 or '78.

10.  Best arm I ever saw belonged to Roberto Clemente but I did see Lee Lacy make a play similiar to the Dave Parker All-Star play when he was 1st being tried out in RF. He wasn't known for a strong arm and it was a fluke play but I remember Vinny going crazy over the throw. Or maybe my memory is just full of cobwebbed bits that retrosheet will quickly prove to be false.
Last year it seemed Kemp showed a great and accurate arm in the beginning but as the season wore on it seemed his throws became more and more inaccurate. Ethier showed a strong and accurate arm for a left fielder but I'm surprised he's the top gun in the NL for all LF.

11.  I wonder if Ethier will have an above average arm for a Right Fielder? If Drew would have stayed than Andre would have been the CF. What I don't understand is how losing Drew made signing Pierre a necessity?

12.  Best right field arms I've seen (in no particular order):
Dwight Evans
Ichiro
Parker
Jesse Barfield

(trying to remember the "-4"s on the old Strat cards) :-)

13.  Ooh, Dwight Evans was so good! Nothing like watching some foolhardy runner trying to test his cannon arm back in the late 70s and early 80s in Fenway! (Back when you could stroll up to the box office on a game night and get a bleachers ticket for $8.)

14.  Parker had an insane arm.

For me just as an observer, the biggest problems for Ethier and Kemp were tracking balls - nothing to do with throwing them. Though I would have been willing to endure them learning CF on the job, I can understand how a GM would feel they didn't belong there defensively in 2007.

12 - I thought guys like Evans and Parker went to -5.

15.  Isn't there more to "holding a runner" than a strong arm? It seems the differences of time the ball is in the air is pretty small compared to the time it takes getting to the ball. Maybe Either has good instincts, positions himself well for different batters and has good fundamentals catching/throwing the ball accurately, but not a great arm.

16.  12 How quickly we forget Raul Mondesi!

I'd also include Larry Walker on that list.

17.  Carl Furillo was rumored to have quite a gun, but I expect DBurns is the only poster who might have seen it in action.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carl_Furillo

18.  15 - Yes, and he might position himself well, but again just from my personal observation, his instincts and speed were nothing special.

16 - Of course.

19.  DodgerSims got a mention and a link in today's Hardball Times link package for the NCAA basketball style tournament I'm running with my baseball simulation program. The Dodgers will be playing the Mets in the 2nd round of the tourney today.
http://tinyurl.com/ywtqmq

vr, Xei

20.  16

mea culpa ....

(hanging my "knows something about the game's history" head in shame)

14

its been 10+ years since I played, so you are probably right ...
Catchers also had -5 arms too, right?
(I remember a post-injury Eric Wedge having a +5 (!) catcher's arm one year)

21.  What about Joe Furgeson(sp?), probably one of the best right fielders ever. Oops, rule #6 violation... well, how about one of the more exciting outfield assists in Dodger history. I like the way he pulled a Kobe, and practically took the ball from his teammate and gunned the ball home. :)
vr, Xei

22.  Meanwhile Jon, you gonna let Rob ankle you like that?

23.  I've always liked Vlady's arm

24.  21
From the Toy Cannon no less.

25.  22 - Publicly, yes. By e-mail, though, I've tried to make the case that "the murk that rag emits" was a bit much. But life goes on.

26.  25
At least in the future, people will more easily be able to understand "People", "Us Weekly", or even "The Hollywood Reporter."

27.  I agree with Jon that Ethier does not track the ball well. He gets by in left buy does not seem like he would be capable in center. His arm is strong but his footwork is poor.
I also believe that Ethier will be traded. He has not won any favor with the organization with his sulking and generally immature attitude. I can't check the stats like some here but I believe that if you do, you'll find that in the first half, a lot of balls that he put in play fell for hits. More than should be expected. When they stopped falling, he started sulking and he spiraled to the bench.
Yes, he is young and maybe he'll grow up. But I think they might deal him while his value is high because he is entirely replaceable. Kemp, Loney, Broxton, Billingsley, LaRoche (and probably Elbert) are all more valueable and somebody's got to go if we're going to get a power hitter.

28.  Mondesi doesn't get enough respect. He had a cannon, he was very accurate, and he was pretty good at getting to balls in the alleys. I saw cut-off a lot of balls headed into the corner and rifle a quick bullet into second, either getting the out or holding the guy to a long single.

Reggie Smith had a nice arm. I started following the Dodgers closely in '77 and Reggie was my favorite Dodger back then.

Bo Jackson had the best arm I ever saw. The famous throw when he nailed Harold Reynolds at the plate - on a throw from the warning track, on a fly, right in the catchers mit - was the most shocking throw I ever saw.

29.  These from Jayson Stark:

Most improved teams (NL)

1. Cubs
2. Diamondbacks
3. Dodgers

Best free-agent signings

1. Daisuke Matsuzaka, Red Sox (six years, $52 million)
2. Jason Schmidt, Dodgers (three years, $47 million)
3. Alfonso Soriano, Cubs (eight years, $136 million)

Worst free-agent signings

1. Gil Meche, Royals (five years, $55 million)
2. Drew, Red Sox (five years, $70 million or three years, $42 million, depending on how you read the fine print)
3. Juan Pierre, Dodgers (five years, $44 million)

30.  27 - "He has not won any favor with the organization with his sulking and generally immature attitude."

Where did you get this? Yes, Ethier could be traded, but every indication is that the organization loves his character. He's been a top citizen, and by some accounts played through some pain (when he was allowed to play) in the final weeks.

I imagine he got depressed as the season got tougher, but sulking is a whole different matter. The impression given is that he was just worn down.

31.  Hooray, let the character assassination begin! I can hardly wait to see which backup shortstop we get in return!

32.  Remember 1996 when all we had to do was beat the Padres once in games 160-162 to win the West, lost all three and "won" the wildcard? (Sorry to dredge up old pain....) I was at all three games and saw all three losses, but I will NEVER forget Raul Mondesi gunning out the potential winning run at home plate in the top of the 8th inning with two on and one out in game 162.

Retrosheet tells me it was Steve Finley who hit the non-winning single, and after the play, the late Ken Caminiti was intentionally walked, setting up a bases-loaded popout. Ah, nostalgia, how players and stories intertwine.

I'll always remember the thrill, after a weekend of utter and repeated heartache, seeing Mondesi seemingly save the season just as we appeared to be headed for defeat. And that's back when he was still a good player, and the darling of LA. I was devastated when they dealt him for Shawn Green, heh.

33.  Sorry, to interrupt, but does anyone know why do certain teams report today and others next week? Is it just up to the team or is there something behind it?

34.  Don't you know? Any time a player isn't succeeding, it's because he doesn't want it enough, he doesn't have that gritty hustly drive, he's not 5'7" or a former punter....

I'm curious as to how the winner of the Stenson Award for character and work ethic somehow now has attitude problems. Or is it just his association with the man he was traded for? Joe Morgan, is that you?

35.  Juan Pierre is a jerk. He's all about Juan Pierre. Sure he stacks up stolen bases, but how many times is he going to get caught? 30? How vain. He should play for the team and not just for himself.

36.  Fun with character assassination!

37.  33
I would imagine it's just the preference of the organization's coaching staff. And the front office probably has X number of dollars budgeted for spring training as well and can only pay for Y number of days.

38.  Speaking of Mondesi and his arm --

Anyone remember that play (in the late 90s I believe) when he threw out at firstbase a runner who had singled to right field?

I've never seen that type of play before or since.

39.  38
The throw out at first on a "single" to right happens every now and then. It's usually with a pitcher running. They don't break out of the box fast and they usually just end up looping something over the second baseman's head and if the right fielder is playing shallow, he can run in and get the guy at first.

Larry Walker did it at least once.

40.  No question, best arm on the Dodgers, Rafael Furcal.

33 It is up to the clubs, I believe the CBA mandates a March 1st cut-off date for reporting but the clubs can establish their own reporting dates.

41.  Ethier's attitude problems are simply that he's a sulker and gives up on himself. He's not selfish or a back talker. I know this partially by those who have told me (not trying to be coy but I can either say what I've heard from those who are close to the situation- or not) and also from his actions and words. Remember when he said to the press during a September pennant race that he didn't think he'd be a Dodger next year?
Why as a rookie would you ever say such a thing? I can tell stories if you want to get a beer but for now, can we just call it my opinion?

42.  That's why they call it assassination. Because it's a crime of intent.

43.  i feel compelled to mention strong-armed rightfielder jose gonzalez, who once--more than once?--hit the third-base stands on the fly.

44.  42 And you are that master.

45.  27
Wow Greg sorry you got scorched here. I guess next time you'll need to supply a bibliography because we know everyone else here never comments on heresay.

46.  Ethier did have an abnormally high BABIP, which sunk toward the end of the season: http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx?playerid=6265&position=OF&page=7&type=full

He's also decidedly NOT clutch. This is very interesting (but meaningless):

Situation - OPS
Tie Game - .534
Within 1 R - .748
Within 2 R - .802
Within 3 R - .813
Within 4 R - .824
Margin > 4 R - .926

He certainly saves his best for when it counts least -- early in the season and with his team impossibly behind. Unfortunately, there are no good metrics for measuring sulking. Perhaps one could analyze over the course of a season the curvature of the corners of a player's mouth, or the angle he holds his head at, or...?

47.  45
Please be sure the bibliography follows MLA conventions.

48.  37 Quick perusal of the MLB CBA shows that the players start getting paid when the season starts, they do get allowances for accomodations, travel and meals for Spring Training.

This is a clause out of the CBA that expired in 12/2006 but I would guess that this did not change in the new CBA.

ARTICLE XIV—Spring Training Conditions
A. Reporting
No Player shall be required to report for spring training workouts more than thirty-three (33) days prior to the start of the championship season, provided that:
(1) injured Players, pitchers and catchers may be invited to attend spring training workouts no earlier than forty-five (45) days
prior to the start of the championship season

Season starts on April 1st, So under the CBA, the last day to report would be February 26th, though most teams are reporting by the middle of next week.

49.  41. "Remember when he said to the press during a September pennant race that he didn't think he'd be a Dodger next year?"
-no

This is the first I've heard of any 'problems' with Eithier. According to Henson the Dodgers where ready and willing to move Ethier to CF next year.

On the issue of Ethier's arm - I remember plenty of good throws from him last year, a couple times he killed a baserunner and later in the year the baserunners stop challenging him. He's not fast, of course, but I wonder if OF's habitually have trouble when they first reach the majors considering that the stadiums are much bigger and more full than in the minors.

50.  This is just the pattern playing itself out again. There's no need for bibliography. The whisper campaign has begun, and that's all that needs to be known. The media will follow like the lemmings they are.

51.  45. Yes, thanks TC. Probelm is that I didn't attack Juan Pierre or Kenny Lofton and worse, I questioned the heart of one of our Golden Boy youngsters. I also brought it on myself with the "I know something but I'm not saying how I know it" thing. Oh well.

49. You can look it up. It wasn't hidden.

52.  48
I don't if it's as much as a factor of paying "Murphy money" to the players as it is paying all the other people (coaches, instructors, security) that you need. There could also be rent issues.

Or maybe the manager is just lazy.

53.  Okay, okay. Easy, everyone.

Greg didn't get scorched by anyone except the scorcher.

Greg - you're totally entitled to what you wrote. It surprised me and I have a different take on it, but it's cool.

I do remember when Ethier wondered aloud whether he would be a Dodger next year. I just don't see how this should be taken as something negative. He had a crisis of confidence, but the flip side of that is high expectations of himself.

As far as the stories go that you can't tell, Greg, fair enough. I guess I just hate to see us go down the Drew road with Ethier. As far as I can tell, his effort has been 100 percent.

54.  50 - A propos to this, I have to say, is T.J. Simers' column today.

55.  Slightly off-topic ...

for roto purposes only, where would you draft Furcal in a 12-person, mixed league non-keeper draft:

1) overall position (round)
2) amongst shortstops

56.  54 I think T.J. should start quoting Jon's takes verbatim and refer to him as "Anonymous DTer"

57.  50
While I've heard that teams partake in smear campaigns it has never struck me as a good way to engage in trade activities since any smear campaign that was effective would lessen the value of the player your trying to deal. It makes for good copy but does it make for good business practice? Of couse no one has ever accused the present or past Dodgers of employing good business practices.

58.  Seems I've heard that Loney may have the strongest arm on the team. And we may get to see if that's true if he plays any right field.

59.  I don't have any problem with Kenny Lofton, but any disingenuous port in a storm.

60.  55

oh ... its a 5x5 league, btw ....

Ron Shandler is expecting quite a nice season from Furcal, FWIW ...

61.  53. Thanks Jon. To be clear, I don't think that Ethier has horrible attitude problems and I should have been clearer on that originally. I just think he is immature and that that affects his ability (and may continue to do so). I have no problem with him being on the team I root for. Bigger issue is that I can't see him being better than a .300 hitter with little power and a medicore outfielder. That's a good player but not as good as I can see the others I named becoming. We're blessed with a crowded clubhouse and if you had to pick someone of value to other clubs to get traded for value, who would you pick?

62.  The assists of Andre!

5/19/06 vs Angels - In the 9th inning, with the Dodgers up 16-2 at the time, Ethier threw out Mike Napoli trying to stretch a single into a double.

5/22/06 vs Rockies - In the 2nd inning, Ethier throws out Cory Sullivan at home trying to score from first on a double by Danny Ardoin.

6/18/06 at Oakland - In the 7th inning, Nick Swisher is out at home trying to score from second on a single by Jay Payton.

6/26 at Minnesota - Jason Kublel flies into a DP and Ethier throws out Michael Cuddyer at home.

7/1 at Anaheim - Robb Quinlan singles to left, Ethier misplays, but Quinlan is eventually thrown out at third trying to stretch 7-2-5.

7/23 vs St. Louis - Scott Rolen singles to score two, but Albert Pujols is thrown out at third by Ethier.

8/11 vs. San Francisco - Ray Durham is thrown out at second trying to stretch with two outs in a 2-2 in the 7th by Ethier.

9/4 at Milwaukee - Prince Fielder is out at home trying to score from second with two outs on a Jeff Jenkins single.

63.  57 -- I don't think it has to do with business practice. Sometimes it is regular petty jealousies, dislikes; other times it is to backfill and justify otherwise unjustifiable acts; other times it is ideological. But there is always a purpose for it, even if it is rarely a good one.

64.  Yes, 17, I did see a lot of Carl Furillo (aka the Reading Rifle). He often took a shot at throwing to first after a hard hit single to right; the scoreboard was 297 down the line and 315 to direct right. Another great arm of that era was Cliff Mapes of the Yankees.

65.  60
I'm surprised your asking this group if you already know what Shandler is predicting. I'm going to assume you only purchased his forecaster and don't have access to his mock draft information. His mock 5/5 draft has Furcal going in the 4th round behind Reyes/Rollins/Jeter/Lugo.
I myself would take him before Lugo. HQ has always been a bit more optimistic about Lugo then they should. JMO

66.  55 Im not a fantasy guru, but I think in the pantheon of short stops Furcal is good but not utterly fantastic. Theres some better bets at the position than Furcal in spite of the fact that hes going to put up good numbers for an SS in avg, hr and perhaps sb. I think Jose Reyes is easily your #1 SS in fantasy.

67.  If Furcal can looks anything like he did the last two month of 2006 - the Dodgers win the division and Furcal is a top-3 MVP candidate.

68.  If were going to talk fantasy baseball for a second, I have sort of a rookie question. When it comes to drafting what are your guys strategies with regard to the first couple rounds? When do you get to the point where you try to fill in the positions where value is in short shrift (ie: 2B, C) vs mashers who will put up huge numbers but will most likely be 1B or DH?

69.  Interested in NL only 5x5 roto keeper league?
HR, OPS, SB, SLG, R
WHIP, SV, QS, K, HD

5 keepers in 2008

Snake Draft 6 pm PCT on March 7, 2007

If so e-mail me....dbartholomew@gmail.com

70.  Depending on how good your league is, I'd actually stay away from Furcal. Let someone else ride out is usual sub par April and May, then make some obscenely unfair trade to get him.

71.  61 - Maybe it hit too close to home because I'm immature when it comes to my work. Seriously.

72.  61 -- What sort of value are you thinking we would get for Ethier? Not likely anything worth having over Ethier, I'd say. I agree that he has a lower ceiling than quite a few other Dodger youngsters, but other teams know that too.

73.  60
Skip my comment in 65, that was a 2006 ranking. I clicked on the wrong link. Sorry.

74.  60
Try this link

http://tinyurl.com/2883wj

75.  71. =) Immaturity is only an issue if you don't deliver. Ken Griffey, Jr is the biggest man/child I ever met. He also hit an awful lot of home runs so, no issue. You hit quite a few home runs in this ballpark and I'm guessing you do in your other ballparks as well.
Wow, that sounded kiss up! But true.

76.  Regarding Mondesi, I remember sitting in the right field bleachers watching him warm up in between innings. The other dodger outfielders would be lobbing the ball back and forth while Mondesi was trying to knock the ball boy over who was warming him up in right field. His throws were effortless and never seems to rise above eye level. He had a cannon.

77.  Didn't Mark Whiten have a good arm?

78.  And on the whole character issue, unlike some people here (by their own admission, I am not insulting them) I put a lot of stock in a player's character. Bradley's character made him despicable in my eyes, same with Sheffield, and Perez. I went from being a big Joel Guzman fan to being, at best, indifferent to him being traded because of revelations about his character. But for Ethier, I am just not hearing anything that raises more than a little bit of concern (lacking self confidence is very far from being a jerk). And it sounds to me like the Dodgers still like Ethier a lot, and that was certainly not the case with Bradley, Perez, and Guzman (or Sheffield years ago).

79.  77
Mark Whiten had a tremendous arm.

If he could only have handled breaking pitches...

80.  I will be setting up a Friends of DT fantasy baseball league later this week when Yahoo opens up. Most likely one H2H and one Roto, depending on the turnout. Last year we had a rather large turnout, I won't mention how I did, but I believe someone like Toy Cannon won (correct me if I'm wrong).

Regarding the Furcal fantasy ranking. In a standard 5x5, 12 team (mixed) league with HR,RBIs,Runs,SBs,AVE as the offensive categories, I'd rank him 5th, behind Reyes, Tejada, Jeter and Young... and very slightly ahead of Rollins and H.Ramirez.

http://MLBMockDraftSoftware.blogspot.com/

vr, Xei

81.  Was Mark Whiten the guy that was good at hitting 4 homeruns in one game...?

82.  76 He also tattooed a canon on his arm.

83.  But on 9/7/93 they tried to throw 4 fastballs by him.

84.  Simers's column is from yesterday right? I didn't see any Ethier talk in there. Did I miss something?

85.  80
You are wrong. I only came in 3rd and I have no idea who the poster was who won but he kicked our butts. The only regular besides yourself that I knew was JoeyP.

86.  83
It was a doubleheader. There FIVE fastballs!

87.  He had a Loney kind of game.

88.  No, the issue is not character. The issue is innuendo, spin, and nickel-store psychology.

89.  88. There are rules and #8 is staring you in the face.

90.  No, actually it's not. But thanks for playing.

91.  84. Talk wasn't of Ethier but Jon was just making a point that it's clear that what people say in blogs makes it's way into the media... quickly.

92.  65

Well ... I'm ALSO interested in DT reader opinions, since you watched him last year in what should be one of his prime seasons (age-wise).

93.  [80] i'm down with an h2h league. i don't like roto.

94.  89 -- So what IS your position on "character?" Your saying the character issue is something else -- "innuendo, spin, nickel-store psychology" -- is not persuading me that you just don't care about a player's character, and are pretty much happy to denigrate the concerns of anybody who purports to do so -- unless I am mistaken and you are actually paying me a compliment by implying that what I care about isn't character, but "innuendo, spin, and nickel-store psychology."

95.  94. I think that was meant for 88, no?

96.  Xei, ESPN is offering free fantasy baseball this year with free stat trackers. I think you should hold the league there instead of yahoo.

97.  I'm afraid I can't answer that question because Rule 8 is staring at me right in the face, with dead eyes.

98.  95 -- Yes, post #88. Sorry about that.

99.  For myself, I start from a position that it is just very hard for a fan to reliably know much about a player's true "character." I certainly hear a lot of discussion on the subject that seems very unfair, and while I don't begrudge Greg S his inside sources, they don't get me very far in figuring out if Ethier truly does or does not have a positive character for a baseball player.

100.  99. Absolutely true and fair.

 

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