Schmidt to the Dodgers?Lieberthal Signing Official

From MLB.com:

The Dodgers apparently are on the verge of acquiring the power pitcher they've coveted, as free-agent right-hander Jason Schmidt on Wednesday told former teammates he accepted a three-year, $47 million offer to pitch in Los Angeles.

In acquiring Schmidt, Dodgers general manager Ned Colletti would succeed in a key step of his offseason Plan B - accumulating surplus starting pitching that not only improves his starting rotation, but could lead to the culmination of Plan A, a power hitter.

The club would not confirm the deal, which would be contingent on Schmidt passing a physical exam. Schmidt's physical condition is no secret to the Dodgers, who recently hired his trainer with the Giants, Stan Conte. Colletti also has familiarity with Schmidt, having helped acquire him as the Giants' assistant general manager.

A Schmidt signing would enable the Dodgers to trade from the following surplus of starting pitchers:

1) Derek Lowe
2) Brad Penny
3) Chad Billinglsey
4) Hong-Chih Kuo
5) Mark Hendrickson
6) Brett Tomko
7) Eric Stults
8) D.J. Houlton
and other minor leaguers

Schmidt and Randy Wolf can't be traded this offseason.

Penny will be the focus of trade rumors as they come, but I can't help thinking that Hendrickson and Tomko also have value to other teams that need back-end starting pitching more than the Dodgers do now.

* * *

Schmidt is a talented pitcher, but he is surely expensive - that projected salary is almost twice what Derek Lowe makes - and does not come without risk. Turning 34 in January with nearly 2,000 career innings, Schmidt in 2006 saw his strikeout rate drop to its lowest point since 2000.

But Schmidt is still above-average through and through, and might well help form a perfect bridge between the Dodgers' veteran starters and the up-and-comers like Billingsley, Kuo, Scott Elbert and Clayton Kershaw.

The Dodgers should look to have six starting pitchers available to guide them through the long season - especially, as others have pointed out, as insurance against injuries or overwork for Billingsley and Kuo - but one of those six can be a veteran mediocrity like Tomko or Hendrickson. That's what a swingman/long reliever is for. If Schmidt falls into place, the team can afford to trade Penny.

Of course, if the Dodgers can get value for someone besides Penny, so much the better, but I'll confess to being among the group that would hate to see the Dodgers trade Billingsley or Kuo before we see what these young pitchers can really do in a Los Angeles uniform.

* * *

Update: The Dodgers officially announced the signing of 34-year-old local boy Mike Lieberthal to a one-year contract with a club option for 2008 to back up Russell Martin. His best days are behind him, but he's a nice pickup for the backup role and figures to be much more content than Toby Hall, who will be jettisoned somehow.

Comments

[goblue1]

1.  Great move Ned. Assuming thats true.

[NPB]

2.  As much as I'll miss Maddux, this is money better spent. Schmidt, Lowe, Penny, Billingsley/Kuo, and Wolf. Now that's a rotation. And I bet we can get some offensive muscle for Penny in a trade.

[Eric Enders]

3.  Two great things about the Schmidt signing:

1. It's only for three years. I really like Ned's philosophy with Furcal and Schmidt of overpaying a bit to get them to sign shorter contracts.

2. It probably eliminates a Manny transaction, which means all the kids stay here.

[Another Tom]

4.  ESPN Deportes is reporting that Manny to the Dodgers for Penny and a prospect could happen by the end of the day. Of course, that is contrary to what everyone else is reporting about Manny to LA being dead. However, signing Schmidt certainly frees up Ned to move Penny.

[GoBears]

5.  I really hope that the Gonazales thing is wrong. If Colletti now trades Penny for a big bat, then the only kid who'll get playing time is Martin. Loney will wait for Nomar to go down, and Ethier/Kemp will wait for Gonzales to get hurt. Pierre never gets hurt - which would be fine if his backups weren't better players.

[Gold Star for Robot Boy]

6.  I think Ned should walk away from the table now.

[Big Game]

7.  I love this signing.

[Jesse]

8.  cool deal. what about kuo?

[Sam DC]

9.  Thanks Bob, wrong Juan and not necessarily gone.

Yes, Penarol, I do sometimes read the Sports Bog -- that guy is very funny and has great feel for the medium. (Called a "bog" because the author once told Raplh Friedgen he wrote a blog and Friedgen asked "What's a bog?")

The water wars were hilarious. As was tracking down that DC U player's appearance on GUTS.

[blue22]

10.  5 - Can't imagine there's room for both a Penny-for-OFer trade and a Gonzo signing. Schmidt's $16M really puts a hurtin' on the budget already.

[Eric Enders]

11.  "ESPN Deportes is reporting that Manny to the Dodgers for Penny and a prospect could happen by the end of the day."

If it's Penny and Ethier, I would be delighted. Penny and Broxton would be OK. Penny and Loney would be painful, but acceptable.

Penny and anyone else, I'm leading the mutiny.

[AlmostGagne]

12.  I'm not particulary thrilled with this signing. At the start of the season Schmidt will be 34 years old. So over $15 mil per season is allocated to a pitcher age 34, 35, and 36.
Of course, if adding Schmidt allows us to trade Penny for a middle of the line-up bat, then it's different. As it stands I just don't see it as a wise investment.

[GoBears]

13.  Anyone have any idea what the Schmidt and prospective Gonzales deals would do to the payroll.

[Another Tom]

14.  10 - Assuming the "budget" is still the budget. It seems everyone has 3 weeks of allowance and is heading straight for the arcade.

11 - It was actually Manny and 2 prospects. My guess was Penny, Broxton and Loney because Boston is hell-bent on getting a closer.

[Gold Star for Robot Boy]

15.  I wonder how hard Grittle is pushing for the acquisition of Man-Ram.

[blue22]

16.  13 - Jon has $98.8 on the sidebar, but you can take a net $2M away based on the Hall-for-Lieberthal swap.

$16M for Schmidt and $5M for Gonzo brings it to a cool $118M!

[Penarol1916]

17.  9. I was about to ask you about the water wars stuff and if you followed it on DC 101. Those posts on tracking down the United Keeper were amazing. I only wish I cared even remotely about the Redskins and Wizards, then that place would easily be my second favorite blog on the web.

By the way, did the Giants offer Schmidt arbitration?

[GoBears]

18.  12. It's funny that we can be excited that, if I may quote 12, "adding Schmidt allows us to trade Penny" when they're both power pitchers, and the one we'd be trading is much younger and much cheaper. I agree that Schmidt is better right now, but, especially given how fragile he is, I'll be surprised if he's better for 3 years.

And I say this despite being excited about getting him.

[Greg Brock]

19.  I really like Loney, but Penny and Loney for Manny would be alright in my book.

Did McCourt find some dubloons off Catalina or something?

[Johnson]

20.  12 How old was Kevin Brown when we gave him his big contract? What was that, 6 years at $15M per or something? For some reason I get the feeling that the total dollar value was over $100M - 7 years, maybe? And payrolls were lower then.

[Gold Star for Robot Boy]

21.  16 - $118MM sounds reasonable, considering the offseason salary inflation.

[blue22]

22.  20 - He was 34 I think. It was 7/$105M ($15M per).

[goblue1]

23.  Let the league know Penny is avail, and walk away from the table.

Gonzo.... im 50:50 on.

Like to see the team younger not older.
Besides, isnt he right in the Giants wheelhouse? Old, defensive liability.
Maybe he is too young, actually.

[Gold Star for Robot Boy]

24.  19 - The MLBAM check arrived.

[jdm025]

25.  WOO HOO!!!!!!!!

We now have at what everyone wants. When Zito is gone, Coletti can really work the lines.

[Greg Brock]

26.  Penny for Dunn.

Please?

Pretty please?

[blue22]

27.  21 - A Manny trade would be a net $12M added to the payroll (assuming Penny goes, and Boston doesn't send any salary). Of course, Gonzo probably doesn't sign then, so it ends up being a net $7M increase.

Penny/Loney/Broxton + $7M for Manny? Still not sure about that, but it'd help if Manny didn't demand his option years be exercised.

[Gold Star for Robot Boy]

28.  No Gonzo, unless he understands he's now a platoon player - and is paid as such.

[GoBears]

29.  16 I was going to guess $120M. To be fair to DePodesta, that can't be forgotten when we do our GM comparisons. But to be fair to Colletti, it also takes the sting out of the Pierre contract. There'll still be the sting of watching him stink for 800 games, but at least the contract hasn't cost the team a chance at an ace.

Anyone else get the idea that one reason Colletti seems to be setting up a scenario where he can trade Penny is that he wants all DePodesta acquisitions gone? This would leave only Kent and Lowe, right? And Saenz, but Colletti had to re-sign him.

[Gold Star for Robot Boy]

30.  it'd help if Manny didn't demand his option years be exercised.
IIRC, Man-Ram is demanding the option be picked up if he's traded.

[blue22]

31.  30 - That's not what's been going around in the last few days. Manny just wants out, apparently.

[Disabled List]

32.  I'm ready to punt on Manny. Ned should go after Dunn.

[jdm025]

33.  16
I think that insurance will also pick up a bit on the Mueller contract, but that seems negligible (maybe 2-3 mil)

[Marty]

34.  Mr. Schmidt, please see this doctor for your physical. He's a good man, and thorough.

[Johnson]

35.  22 Thanks. So Brown got basically the same average salary, but for 4 more years (in a cheaper market) at the same age. Not that I'm defending the Brown deal, but the reported Schmidt deal doesn't look so bad in comparison. I'd much rather pay $16M per for the age 34-36 seasons of a power pitcher than $15M per for the age 34-40 seasons of another. (Though looking at BP, it looks like Brown was quite a bit more dominant than Schmidt, putting up 130 PRAR over his 5 seasons before the deal in comparison to Schmidt's 88.)

[Eric Enders]

36.  Not sure if it's been updated but the ESPNDeportes article from last night says Manny is demanding that one of his two option years be picked up if he's traded.

[LA Native]

37.  I agree with going after someone like a Dunn now. Forget about Gonzo. Manny would be nice if we don't have to give up too much, but I wonder if the payroll can handle that and don't think Boston will settle for much less than Broxton, Penny, and maybe Loney, which is too much. Also, Manny is really a DH and a huge liability in the field.

Dunn can play first as well, so Loney would be expendable (he is not now, b/c Nomar is too injury prone). I could see Loney and Penny for Dunn (and maybe something else from Cincy, especially if we toss in someone like a Tomko). Anyone have a solid idea on Dunn's defense at 1st (and in left for that matter)? This makes more budget sense than a Manny deal.

[still bevens]

38.  Mr. Schmidt, let me be the first to welcome your doughboy face and silly goatee to Los Angeles. I respect you as a player, but perhaps you can talk to Mr. Kent about facial hair alternatives.

[blue22]

39.  I really like Dunn, but somehow I don't think he fits into the new "Go-Go Dodgers" strategy now.

[KG16]

40.  Doesn't the Pierre signing and going after Manny/Dunn pretty much block all but one of the kids in the outfield? So we basically need to choose between Ethier and Kemp this off season? Anyone else worried by that idea?

[BlueCrew]

41.  37. i think penny AND loney for dunn is too much

[Gold Star for Robot Boy]

42.  40 - Like I said, stop now, Ned.

[Greg Brock]

43.  34 Nice. That didn't go unnoticed.

A good man. And thorough.

[jdm025]

44.  Just say not to Gonzo. Wait it out and find someone who needs some pitching and we may just pay less for a big bat than a net increase of $7 mil.

Example (though I hope we look elsewhere)
Penny for Burrell:

Net salary gain: less than $2 mil.

NO PROSPECTS TRADED

[LA Native]

45.  41

I agree. I think they need to add someone else. If we add a Tomko or Hendrickson that someone else should be even better.

[Marty]

46.  I live for Lebowski references...

[goblue1]

47.  I don't think theres really any big push for Dunn or Manny by the organization at this point.
I suspect we pick up Gonzo to share time in the OF and run what we got.
Maybe add a 'pen arm.
By mid year we will see which of Kemp, Ethier and Loney share the OF with Pierre-gate.
Shame to see Loney play in the OF- such a nice glove at 1B.

[Gagne55]

48.  41 Especially since Loney is better than Dunn. Homeruns ain't everything.

[Dane Bramage]

49.  What impact could this have on the possible re-signing of Gagne? Is it no longer a priority?

[Eric Enders]

50.  48 In our wildest fantasies maybe that's true.

[Jacob L]

51.  Having our prospects blocked by Pierre worries me a great deal. Prospects blocked by Dunn, maybe a litte. Having prospects blocked by Manny doesn't worry me at all. He's really good at baseball.

[Sam DC]

52.  An Eric Stults sighting!

[ToyCannon]

53.  37
According to Dewan, Dunn would be considered the worse LF in baseball if Manny was a DH. I don't think Ned has any interest in Dunn but if we acquired him, Ned would have acquired two players (Pierre/Dunn) with the largest discrepancy in skills in baseball.

[Greg Brock]

54.  I love Loney, but he's not better than Adam Dunn. Homers aint everything, but Slugging, OBP, walks, doubles, homers, P/Pa go a long way.

[Gold Star for Robot Boy]

55.  Lineup of:
Furcal - SS
Martin - C
Garciaparra - 1B
Kent - 2B
Ethier - LF
Loney - RF
Betemit - 3B
Pierre - CF (but he'll be leadoff - ugh)

Honestly, I'm underwhelmed. It's a lineup more solid than scary. I can see the upside of going for Pat the Bat.

[Gagne55]

56.  Though, I'm for no more transactions. The addition of Schmidt makes this clearly the best team in the division. Somebody is going to get hurt meaning that trading a SP is not necessary. Kuo can be stored in AAA until somebody goes down. And, I don't consider Tomko, Stultz or Hendrickson to be starting options anyway at this point.

[DodgerJoe]

57.  I know everyone is talking about Penny for Manny. But does Boston really need another starter (Shilling, Matsuzaka, Beckett, Wakefield, Papelbon, Lester)?

I am more in tune with Penny for Dunn.

[LA Native]

58.  49

I'd imagine Gagne is not a priority now for both budget reasons and the fact that we don't need as deep a bullpen with Maddux gone and Schmidt in. I'd still like to see him back, but doubt it will happen. Could change if Broxton is traded, which I hope we don't do that at this point.

I still think we desperately need a power hitter. Don't think both Eithier and Loney will survive the off-season with the Dodgers as they play power positions with little power. I like them both, but we are getting to the point of either giving them a position to play or trading them. We can't keep all of these prospects and not give them a place to play forever.

[Gagne55]

59.  Loney's rate stats in the majors last year were better than Dunn's. He also hit .380 at AAA. He also is a much better fielder and a better baserunner than Dunn.

[Jon Weisman]

60.  Lieberthal signing is official. Update to come.

[Gold Star for Robot Boy]

61.  I wouldn't mind Dunn.

[ToyCannon]

62.  44
How do you figure. Penny makes 8 Mill and it was my understanding that Burrel will make 13Mill in 2007. Source is
http://tinyurl.com/uh3x6

[Gold Star for Robot Boy]

63.  60 - A solid backup. Good signing, and with a hometown discount, I believe?

[Greg Brock]

64.  Jayson Stark just posted that the Dodgers are still in on Mulder. If we're going for the dreaded nine-man rotation, it makes sense.

Hot Stove is crazy.

[LA Native]

65.  59

No argument from me, only that we desperately need power. Dunn's defense does worry me though.

[goblue1]

66.  Loney is great, but you should be thinking Mark Grace (best case, and heck- he aint bad at all!).
No indication of > 20HR power, at any level.
Looks like a solid pro though.

[Gold Star for Robot Boy]

67.  66 - So, Loney's long-term future is a gig as a mediocre color man on the telecasts for a mediocre team?

[jdm025]

68.  62
Oops. I was looking at his '06 salary (9.75 mil) on ESPN and not his '07 salary. The point is still that I would rather have Burrell and one of the kids in the rotation than Gonzo and Penny which would still end up being a cost savings (15 mil for Penny and Gonzo over Burrell's 13 mil plus the $400 for Kuo and/or Elbert)

[Gagne55]

69.  I think he has Tony Gwynn upside. He might not hit 20 homers, but I think he'll be a batting champ and gold glove one day. Still, I'm probably overrating him. The plexiglass priciple might hit him hard.

[goblue1]

70.  66
Obviously, you're not a golfer.

[jdm025]

71.  66
I see Loney as the perfect combination of Grace and JT Snow. I read that some scouts would consider him as the best defensive 1st baseman in the NL if he played regularly. I would take that in a heartbeat and try to find some more power at another position.

[robohobo]

72.  Ned should wait until later in the season to talk trades. We clearly have a competitive team in the NL West. That way we can wait and see just what our young players have and which of our pitchers will be durable (we may need all of them). Also, other players will be available that are not available now. Every team has a chance at this time (except the Pirates).

[goblue1]

73.  71

agree.

thats why i think/wish/hope were done for the winter.

[Jacob L]

74.  I would say that the balance of Ned's off-season right now is positive, with only the Pierre signing a major drag. I fear, though, that it could get ugly from this point.

I'm hugely against signing Luis Gonzalez. Are we sure we're not talking about the other Luis Gonzalez as a backup infielder? Ned loves backup infielders!

And with the so-called surplus of pitching from which to deal, I'm worried about Billz and Kuo. I'm fine with Penny being traded for quality (Manny), but Ned shown a prodigious talent in not getting fair return on trades.

Allowing that the Dodgers have to trade some pieces, I think they'd be best off waiting until much later in the offseason, when teams start getting desperate, and Hendricksons, Tomkos, and the like start looking good. In other words, I'm hoping for hot stove beer goggles.

[GoBears]

75.  Yeah, I guess that one of our star prospects would have to go with Penny to land that mythical big bat.

Which would just show that Sheehan was right about Colletti - that he sees prospects as chits. The team might improve in the short run, and in the long run, well, as Keynes said, "in the long run we are all dead."

[ToyCannon]

76.  Never a big fan of players who can only do one thing. Dunn can hit home runs. Can't field, can't run. His vaunted OBP was only 365 last year, not exactly stud worthy given how hopeless he is once he gets on base. He walks alot but has to since his average is terrible. He's played in one of the best hitting parks in the NL for homeruns with a park effect of 129 in 2007 and 119 for the last 3 years. Even higher for a LHH.

The best comp I've been seeing for Loney is Adrian Gonzalez. He picked up 16 win shares in 2006. Dunn had 18. Not that far off base to say that Loney if not as good as Dunn certainly has the ability to make it close and within several years could easily be winning the contest.

[Sam DC]

77.  We have some smart baseball writers at the Post:

Washington, D.C.: I saw that the O's have picked up a bunch of bull pen pitchers. Are these guys any good....we sure paid a lot from them.

Dave Sheinin: The real question isn't whether they are good or not -- Danys Baez, Jamie Walker and Chad Bradford are all very serviceable, talented pitchers. The question should be: Will they all be effective for three years? The answer, more than likely, is no. It is very difficult, if not impossible, to name many non-closers who have strung together three consecutive effective seasons as relievers. In other words, relievers are the most inconsistent group of players in baseball. And I think it is unwise to go around handing out three-year contracts to them.

[still bevens]

78.  76 Gonzales also started showing some power this year. Remember Loney is only, what, 22?

[Gagne55]

79.  72 Agreed. Unless Bonds has interest in a discount deal in LA, just go with what you got. The current 25 man as of now:
P:
Lowe, Schmidt, Penny, Billingsley, Wolf, Hendrickson, Tomko, Dessens, Broxton, Beimel, Saito, Kuo (AAA?)
C:
Martin, Leiberthal
IF:
Nomar, Kent, Loney, Furcal, Betemit, Saenz, Martinez
OF:
Ethier, Pierre, Anderson, Werth, Repko(AAA?)

[goblue1]

80.  79

Werth? .... Can I interest you in a discount on a bridge? Great price, really.

[Andrew Shimmin]

81.  Every time somebody compares Loney to J.T. Snow, an angel gets its wings put through a woodchipper.

[ToyCannon]

82.  Lieberthal lifetime 275/338/450

Compared to Hall of 265/301/384

Talk about improvement even though Hall did do the job in the limited at bats Grady gave him.

[jdm025]

83.  74
I also think that some patience would be prudent at this point. I don't think that Bills is going anywhere, and I hope that Hendrickson's bullpen numbers from last year could make him very useful as our #6 starter and middle relief. This would leave Tomko and Penny as the odd men out.

I think that once Zito signs, Penny becomes very desirable to a club like the Cardinals, but what do we get from them? Makes me wonder if Coletti has already heard from some other teams about contingency plans for SPs.

[GoBears]

84.  I see Loney as the perfect combination of Grace and JT Snow.

I know the conventional wisdom on JT Snow is that he was a defensive wizard. But I seem to recall some metrics showing that he was actually below average. Now, I also know that defensive measures are iffy at best, but what is the current verdict on Jack's boy? Was he as good as he "looked" or did he have to make all those dives because he had no lateral movement? Anyone? Bueller?

[Eric Enders]

85.  59 "Loney's rate stats in the majors last year were better than Dunn's. He also hit .380 at AAA. He also is a much better fielder and a better baserunner than Dunn."

Let's compare oranges to oranges, though. Dunn's career minor league line was .304/.425/.525 at sea level. Loney's is .298/.366/.436, with the best year coming at altitude.

Dunn's career major league line is .245/.380/.513 for an .893 OPS. Loney's, coming with an extreme sample size caveat and Coors Field caveat, is .284/.342/.559/.901 -- not much different. Dunn has proven this is his real level of ability. Loney has not.

You could say Loney's a better fielder at first base, which would be true, but the position we have open is outfield. Adam Dunn has played the outfield before. James Loney hasn't. They might both suck out there. We don't really know at this point.

A better baserunner than Dunn? Setting aside the fact that we're nuts if we sign guys based on their baserunning, I present their career baserunning records in pro ball:

Dunn: 108 SB, 37 CS
Loney: 30 SB, 22 CS

Neither really runs a lot, but last year Loney stole bases at a 67 percent clip and Dunn at 100 percent.

There is no legitimate way to argue that James Loney, right now, is a better player than Adam Dunn. None. And I say this as someone who likes Loney a lot and hopes we keep him for a long time.

[ToyCannon]

86.  78
Or course I hope Loney is a better baserunner then Adrian. Only Jeff Willingham was a lousier runner with a negative -25 according to BJH 2007.

[jdm025]

87.  81
LOL

[Dark Horse]

88.  75-While I'm not in favor of trading the prospects in question, I find this locution fascinating: trading one of our "star" prospects for a "mythical" big bat. Our prospects just now are more myths than stars--hence "prospect"--whereas a bat like Ramirez's is about as factual, as star-like as they come.

It's easy to get lost in the shine of potential, is all I'm saying. As someone who, too, prefers the future of Matt Kemp to Adam Dunn's strikeout totals. Even if were Kemp to approach Dunn's power in actuality it'd be beyond my wildest dreams.

[jdm025]

90.  84
My judgment was based solely on his 6 Gold Gloves, but I know that those can exaggerate a fielder's reputation.

[goblue1]

89.  JT Snow = Gold glove 1B, no bat = AAA SS.

And an ex- Giant, yucky.

[natepurcell]

91.  Im not as fascinated with Dunn as I use to be two years ago. He just never took that big step of improvement like i thought he would.

[natepurcell]

92.  that said in 91, I would trade Penny for Jenkins+ Yovanni Gallardo and not look back.

[blue22]

93.  91 - He regressed mightily last year. It's an overrated stat, but don't you have to hit better than .234 to be considered, you know "good".

[natepurcell]

94.  Id also approach Beane with a Penny for Swisher swap. It seems that with losing zito and the health risk of Harden, he might need another decent pitcher.

[ToyCannon]

95.  According to Dewan JT had a +11 3 year ranking which put him 9th on the list. He felt that age was catching up to his defense but he seemed to think from the small paragraph he wrote that JT deserved his 6 gold gloves.

[Andrew Shimmin]

96.  Dunn has played 160+ games each of the last three years. He's a gamer.

[natepurcell]

97.  96

Dsfan probably loves him for his durability :)

[goblue1]

98.  96

Yes, he can hurt you daily.

[Marty]

99.  Yovanni Gallardo....great name

Yovanni go have lunch?

The possibilities are endless.

[GoBears]

100.  90. Right. GGs prove nothing except that the conventional wisdom is what it is. I'm asking what the data say.

I don't really care, but I suspect that JT made a lot of money for being perceived to do one thing well that he might not have done all that well. You know, sort of like our new speed demon in CF. Different skill, same result.