Dodger Thoughts

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November 14, 2006

Key Perspective

November 14, 2006 |  1:32 pm

From Joe Sheehan at Baseball Prospectus:

The thing to tuck away as we head into the Winter of the Massive Cashier's Checks is that our scales are not correctly calibrated for what we're about to see. Every contract is going to be a head-scratcher, because all the new money coming into the industry is, as it has done for decades, going through the owners' pockets and into the players'. The notion of cost-per-marginal-win, or the examples of contracts that have been signed in past seasons, won't help guide our evaluations. It may be impossible to evaluate the deals we'll see beyond the skills, age and projected performance of the player being signed, and how that impacts his team's chance to win. There will be no bargains in this market, at least not in the moment; it will take a year or two before we know again what "overpaid" and "underpaid" means.


Comments (159)

1.  Yup, some of these contracts are going to be insane. Aramis Ramirez at $15 million a year is going to look like a bargain.

The madness has already started today
El Duque re-signed with the Mets for 2 years/$12 million
Mark DeRosa signed with the Cubs for 3 years $13 million

I now expect Nomar to get at least 3 years $30 million. I could definitely see Ted Lilly getting close to $40 million over 4 years. It's time for Ned to turn his attention to guys like Pat Burrell and David Dellucci.

The Rockies have apparently put Jason Jennings on the trade market. He'd be a nice pickup depending on what the Dodgers would have to give up.

2.  At the going price I wouldn't mind Lilly for four years at 10mill. Why quibble over an extra 2 mill per year:)
In this environment I can't imagine any team trading their cheap youngsters because they will need them to mitigate the crazy deals.

3.  If player salaries are increasing due to the new CBA, wouldn't that logically reflect a corresponding increase in team revenue, allowing those salary bumps?

In other words, if the Dodgers now have $120 million to spend (instead of $100 mil), then comparing player values to previous years is moot. All boats are being floated.

4.  3 - Which is okay as long ticket prices don't continue floating, too. Okay, I'm dreaming...

5.  2- That's an interesting point about the "cheap youngsters."
While FA salaries are about to skyrocket, pre-arbitration players now go from "bargain" to "outright steal." The minimum salary for the 2006 season was $327,000, and I can't imagine that going much higher in 2007.
Next season, Mark DeRosa - a 32-year-old utilityman with a career OPS+ of 90 - will make more than 13 times more than what a rookie will make. As I see it, teams would be wise to spend big dollars only for the blue-chip FAs, avoid bidding wars for middle-level talent and invest, invest, invest in the farm system.

6.  If LA gets Lilly, he can compete with Brad Penny for "Best On-Mound Disrespect Shown To The Guy Taking You Out Of A Game You Are Clearly Blowing."

7.  I'm betting Colletti ends up making an offer to Drew.

8.  6 - Not Dodgers-related, but I recall a pitcher disgustedly flipping the ball to Frank Robinson before walking off. F-Robby grabbed the player's belt and yanked him back to the mound. I dislike Robinson's attitude, but that was kinda cool to watch.

9.  it feels like im preparing for the apocolypse.

10.  7 - I agree.

11.  5 It's 380,000 this year.

12.  8- Bob's new favorite player...

13.  5 Minimum salary will be $380,000 in 2007, $390,000 in 2008, and $400,000 in 2009.

With these crazy contracts, the Marlins' stragegy looks even more brilliant. I also like the Nationals strategy, don't overpay for mediocre free agents and sign several minor league free agents, who could be just as effective as guys making 10 times their salary.

14.  13 - With this new salary structure, the "middle class" of players may get squeezed. Imagine a team with two or three top-flight players surrounded by roster of kids.

15.  I know the contracts seem "crazy" to all of us, but it's not as if the owners all got together and decided to make less money with the new CBA. They must feel like they can afford all of this; the increasing minimums and FA salaries.

I've always preferred bargain players, but since they've already priced me out of live-game attendance, why should I care anymore? If I'm just gonna watch on TV anyway, let's win.

16.  Btw, next season's rookie salary will be a little more than 1/12th of what DeRosa will make.

17.  15 - Of course the owners will still make money. What's happened, I think, is MLB's online properties are returning a huge and unexpected dividend.

18.  A few days ago, someone suggested that we target Ray Durham as a center fielder. This might actually be a good idea. Durham is one of those guys who might slip through the cracks since he's lost his base stealing ability and is getting up there in age. I'd definitely offer him $18 million over 2 years. Durham is a great athlete, but has had some hamstring problems the past 2-3 years. Durham would fit nicely in the number 2 hole. He gets on base at a pretty good rate, gets a lot of extra base hits, and usually hits 20 bombs. He'd be a big upgrade over Lofton offensively.

19.  Durham's age-34 spike in power seems worrisome because I don't think he can do that again. I foresee 280/360/440/800 - good, but it would be folly to expect 20 HRs.

20.  19
"Spike in Power" would be a good name for a book about the steroid era in baseball.

21.  19 - Or a name for a metal band.

22.  18. Durham didn't seem to like the move to CF all that much when he was with the A's. Besides, I would guess that he would rather play 2B for the Padres and they would probably pay him more as well.

Face it, we're getting either Moises Alou or Luis Gonzalez to replace Drew. And Kemp will be in CF.

Is there some way we can get Alou and Gonzalez? I'd rather pay them a combined $10 million over one season than what Soriano and Lee are asking.

23.  20

I thought that was the title of a movie about a former Boston/Seattle banjo-hitting shortstop being elected US President.

24.  Hi everybody. I've been missing from the comments here for some time due to some sort of passing obsession with Cal football. Its good to be back.

There's no way Colletti is making an offer to Drew.

I think you guys are missing the point somewhat about the need to keep young, cheap guys around. The reason for the anticipated big money deals this winter is that teams can afford them. They have the money. That doesn't mean its not important to have young cheap guys to fill out a roster, but I don't think its any more important this year than before.

25.  7 - what kind of offer could Colletti make to Drew?

Given our other SoCal team, The Pasadena* of Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, and their GM/Owner's proclaimation to bring in a bat, would an offer of 5/$75 be surprising?

*Pasadena is where Drew and wife love to live.

To me, I'd pass on Drew, knowing Boras will likely get someone to sign him for 5/$75 in this seller's market.

26.  Is there some way we can get Alou and Gonzalez?

I like your plan of two decent players for the salary of one good player, but an outfield of Gonzo, Ethier, and Alou would also need Furcal out there playing rover.

27.  22

id rather have Alou then Gonzalez. At least Alou is still a beast with the bat.

28.  24 - I get your point. But my point is, yes, salaries are going up but that's no reason to pay a lot for junk just because you can.

29.  Alou, over the last two seasons, played in only 221 games. That, combined with his age (40 at the '07 ASB), is a big red flag.

30.  18 - Didn't Lofton tag from third on a pop-fly to Durham, who was playing 2B at the time???

Not sure we want his arm anywhere near CF.

31.  29

i realize that. I understand that signing alou for 2007 basically means you can only pencil him for 100-125 games or so. But in those games, you can probably expect an OPS+ of 120-130, which is pretty good production. the rest of the games can be given to someone like Kemp.

32.  30 I bet Lofton would tag from first and take second on a fly ball hit to himself in center.

33.  I don't understand why there seems to be this reluctance to dish out a huge contract to Either Lee or Soriano. If a big bat can be had without having to trade away any of our farm then why not?

34.  33- Especially if we're going to end up dumping draft picks, anyway. Both Alou and Gonzo are type As.

35.  Is Dave Roberts type A?

(free agent, not personality)

36.  Let me just say: If Baseball Prospectus is correct, then maybe we can table the boring discussion of whether player X is overpaid or underpaid at whatever dollar amount the Dodgers cough up. I love all the sabermetrics learnings for benefit of glorious nation of Dodger fans, but seeing those stats applied to dollars always strikes me as a bridge too far, in that the optimal logical market based on production does not and will never exist. It's an auction ruled by (usually scarce) supply and (Steinbrenner-driven) demand.

When you're talking about a high-budget team like the Dodgers, it's even less relevant. There's a shape to the market, but the only relevant comparisons for salaries are what happens during one specific season, e.g. who is worth more, Zito or Schmidt? Assume both will be overpaid. But which one should you overpay more?

Yesterday's "overpaid" is next seasons' bargain (Furcal, Drew if he'd stayed) And I'm sure Florida, Minnesota and Oakland would jump into the FA market feet first if they could afford it.

37.  Like I've said before: If only there were some kind of strategy GMs could follow that focuses on identifying undervalued skills and finding bargains in the market...

38.  33 - I'd rather have Soriano.

39.  What is confusing to me is when trades for Pat Burrell and Vernon Wells are brought up when you could just lose money and not talent for roughly the same amt of power.

40.  35- Yep.

http://tinyurl.com/ybbxpx

41.  Is Dave Roberts type A?

(personality, not free agent)

42.  Is Dave Roberts type A?

(blood, not personality or free agent)

43.  37 but as soon as one appears, the advantage goes away. Beane knew all along his edge was temporary, based on a market dysfunction; and it was mostly applied in his case to the draft and minor league systems.

There are few secret major league stars. Everyone patted Beane on the back for using his secret sauce to find Milton Bradley, but we Dodger fans knew he was a fine player without having to dive too deeply into the numbers. He got traded for his off-field conduct, period. (That trade was more of an Al Davis move than a Billy Beane move.) Beane isn't letting Zito go because his slide rule says he should. He's letting him go because he can't afford him.

44.  I love all the sabermetrics learnings for benefit of glorious nation of Dodger fans

i chuckled.

45.  but as soon as one appears, the advantage goes away

To some extent, yes. But it's not as if all GMs buy into whatever undervalued/underappreciated skill, stat, etc. that Beane or Depo or anyone else believes they have discovered. I doubt, for example, that Ned is checking out EQAs and WARPs and RATE2s. You may not be able to outwit every other GM, but you can probably outwit a lot of them.

46.  Death, taxes and the Cubs.

47.  I doubt, for example, that Ned is checking out EQAs and WARPs and RATE2s.

I bet he pays someone to do that. I bet most of them do. Why not -- it's basically public information, for the price of a subscription to BP, for about the same price as Derek Lowe's pedicure budget for spring training.

Why would you avoid helpful information? I'm sure our loyal reader Josh Ravitch has told him about those lively boys at Dodgerthoughts and all their talk about these wacky acronyms. He might use his gut to override what those numbers say, but by this time I should think it would be part of a front office's duty to keep track of this stuff--if for no other reason, to help in negotiations with agents.

"My boy's got the highest EQA of any left handed first baseman in the game! Pay up!"

"The EQ-what now? Me, I prefer usin' VORP. His VORP is crap."

48.  So, the Giants are in talks with Juan Pierre.

Um...Yay! (Sorry EJM, you Pierre lover you).

49.  33. While we can't be sure yet who will be overpaid and who will be bargains, it seems like Lee and Soriano are pretty good bets to be overpaid in any offseason.

I don't like Lee because he has no defensive value and his career OBP is .340. With him youre basically paying for power and little else; I'd like my big ticket items to be much more versitle than that.

I'd don't like Soriano because, like Lee, he's a corner OF with serious OBP issues. In his case your paying for the power and the speed, the two most consitently expensive skills in the game. Besides, he had his career high in SLG and OBP last year, the chances of him matching that at any point in his contract are pretty small, yet he'll be paid like an 900 OPS guy. He'd be a nice addition for the right price, but I really doubt the we'll be lamenting the Dodgers not signing him in the years to come.

My guess is that Soriano and Lee go elsewhere, there are more than enough teams interested with plenty of cash. I'd rather pay a half-decent vet (as unexciting as that sounds) and rely on Logan White and his staff to find another Ethier in the rough.

50.  48. Don't get too excited, supposedly the Dodgers are interested in Pierre as well, but who knows how true that may be.

51.  Just because we have money doesn't mean we have to spend it...that should be Ned's motto this offseason.

The only player out there that I think is worth paying big money to is Soriano and he's still a bit iffy. I'm talking about position players, not pitchers here.

Nothing...nothing is more irritating to me than giving complete average players money to do the job someone else could do for the minimum. I'll take Alou...like Nate said, the guy can still hit...he may not player 162 games but the guy hits well enough to warrant giving him a shot with Kemp filling in for him on days off.

If I'm Ned I might make a nice offer to Soriano..it's tough to turn down a 40 HR guy especially when our lineup is severely lacking in power. Other than that, I go after Schmidt and maybe look into a salary dump type trade (i.e. Burrell)

52.  Why would you avoid helpful information?

That's not the issue. The issue is whether you think the information is helpful in the first place.

53.  I think its pretty clear that Ned relies more on scouts than stats at this point, which isn't necessarily the wrong choice, especially when you have Logan White's scouting staff at your disposal. I say you play to your strengths, and the strength of the Dodger front office seems to be on the scouting side of things.

54.  51. I don't think Kemp is well suited to bench duty. It seems like people here are very bearish on Kemp, what is wrong with him playing CF on a daily basis? His defense will certainly be better than Lofton's, and while he probably won't match Lofton's OBP, he will trump Lofton in the power departement as well as improving on Lofton on the basepaths. Im willing to trade the OBP for defense, power, and speed, not to mention the millions of dollars in salary. And if youre going to advocate Gary Matthews Jr. for CF, I don't even want to hear it.

55.  His defense will certainly be better than Lofton's

It wasn't this year. At least not certainly.

56.  54. sanchez101

I feel the same way about Kemp, why pay pierre or GM JR. when Kemp can do a suitable job and I think only get better. Either way Id say its a net upgrade over last years Loften....... I get the feeling that Ned doesnt feel the same way about it though.

57.  It wasn't this year. At least not certainly

Im going to argue sample size unless there are horrid defensive #s in the minors which I have no idea of.

58.  On Kemp, I just saw a guy who, once things got more challenging, kind of vanished. He's a great talent, but he needs more seasoning. I don't want to spoil him. That's why you'd bring in someone else for the short run.

59.  40 http://tinyurl.com/ybbxpx (A list of players and their FA classification)

Did anybody notice that Lugo only just barely made the A-type FA cut? Wow. I mean, that could have hurt.

60.  58. dzzrtRatt

might be the right answer, its just Im personally sick of the yearly stopgaps, especialy if this team doesnt come together before April id just say let um play

61.  55. I honestly don't know how you can say that. Im not saying Kemp is Willy Mays or anything. But the metrics say that Lofton was a replacement level fielder last year, and I believe them. His routes were curious, his raw speed had dissapeared by May, and his arm was a wet noodle. Kemp at least has the speed and the arm, even if his routes weren't any better, he'd be an improvement. And then there is the whole age thing.

More importantly, it seems like your making a judgement on Kemp's defense from watching him with the Dodgers last year, and unless your a scout or you saw a lot of him in the minors, I'd don't think your opinion on the matter should hold much, if any, weight.

56. If I was Ned, I'd sign Lofton to a small one year deal (say, $2-3m) and if Kemp really needs more time in AAA, then you platoon Repko and Lofton until either Kemp is ready or the production from those two is so unimpressive that you move Kemp into the position anyway. The key is building the rest of the lineup strong enough so that you can bat your center fielder 8th the whole season.

62.  56 - Here's the end of the article in the Times on Drew opting out:

Colletti said Drew's decision would not make him any more likely to surrender top prospects in a trade.

"We've got some good young players here," Colletti said. "At this stage, you're not going to fix everything by buying up contracts or by buying free agents."

63.  I don't think Kemp is well suited to bench duty.
I don't think Kemp, at the moment, is well suited to duty in the majors. After that great start, he fell off hard. After his homer on June 14, in 109 at-bats Kemp hit 202/233/275/508. Over his final 76 ABs, he struck out 29 times and his line was 171/192/224/416. There's slumping, and there's overmatched.
Unless Kemp pounds the Grapefruit League, he should start the season in Las Vegas not in LA.

64.  But the metrics say that Lofton was a replacement level fielder last year...
Didn't the metrics say Kemp was worse? That's what I remember.

65.  61- My opinion is based only on his major league time, since I don't have any way of evaluating minor league fielding. He looked bad in the outfield, and put up a -4 FRAR, eight points worse than Lofton, admittedly over a significantly smaller sample. I'm not saying he won't be better next year, I'm only saying he wasn't "certainly better" than Kenny this year. Which makes me skeptical that he will be certainly better next year. Could well be; I just don't see why I should be certain of it.

66.  58. I agree with that stopgat strategy, I just can't quite figure out how people can make such sweeping judgements based on 154 ab's, many of which came in pinch hitting opportunities.

Consider Kemp and Grady Sizemore at the same age. Sizemore debuted in the majors in 2004 at age 21 for 138 ab's, his OPS was 739. Kemp debuted last season, at the same age, and with similar playing time, had a 737 OPS. Continueing the Sizemore comparison: Grady's career minor league line (through age 21) was .293/.383/.417 and Kemp's is .309/.357/.516. It may seem like Sizemore was a much more polished hitter, but Sizemore had a 1.7 K/BB ratio in his last minor league season, and Kemp had an identical 1.7 K/BB ratio last year.

And it's not as if Kemp struggled as much as people think, BP had him with a .260 EQA last year (league average). Because he 'looked' bad to the untrained eye he's not ready? That's not convincing to me in the slightest.

67.  64. The metrics for Lofton were over a full season, for Kemp they were in such a limited amount of playing time that they are next to meaningless. Case in point, the metrics have Loney being terrible defensively in a similar sample size, which is clearly wrong. BTW, according to the metrics from past minor league seasons Kemp clearly above average.

68.  65. You should be certain of it because Kemp is faster, has a better arm, and more importantly is two decades younger. Remember, were not comparing Kemp to an average fielder, or even a below average fielder, we're comparing him to probably the worst defensive CF in the game last year, who isn't getting any better. I'd say its certain that almost ANY other CF would be better defensively than Kenny Lofton.

69.   51 Nothing...nothing is more irritating to me than giving complete average players money to do the job someone else could do for the minimum.

case and point,... Ramon Martinez

70.  Because he 'looked' bad to the untrained eye he's not ready? That's not convincing to me in the slightest.
So, if we can't trust our vision can we trust the numbers?
for Kemp they were in such a limited amount of playing time that they are next to meaningless.
Apparently not.

71.  Isn't Gary Matthews Jr. suppose to the best defensive CF free agent? Because his rate2 (94) is basically the same as Lofton's (93). What do the other metrics say? (I'd look at my Fielding Bible, but it's at home and I'm not)

Combine this with his career year at age 31, I'm really hoping Colletti doesn't sign Matthews Jr., especially when we could just resign Lofton for nearly the same production (albeit he wouldn't play nearly as often).

72.  Lofton: RF-2.29 ZR-861 FRAR-4 Rate2-93
(LF/CF/RF)Kemp: RF-(2.36/1.76/1.13) ZR-(.783/.771/1.000) FRAR-(2/-4/-2) Rate2-(115/63/73)

68- Rowand, Brady Clark, Andruw Jones, and Griffey were worse, this year, in just the NL, according to Chris Dial's version of UZR. Reed, Baldelli, Bloomquist, Kotsay, Mackowiak, Crisp, and Gary Matthews were worse than Kenny, in the AL. Kenny was bad, no doubt about it. But he probably wasn't the worst in the game.

http://tinyurl.com/gkomp

73.  71. King of the Hobos

does rate2 take in consideration of balls Loften couldnt reach? there is also the fact that Loften's arm probably took away several attempts at base runners going to 3rd for example, which Matthews may have committed an error on, similar to the Soriano theory of assists

74.  [61] i don't think anyone here needs to decide whose opinion counts about something, or for how much. everyone's entitled to say their piece.

75.  72- can you really trust a list that rates Juan Pierre as the best defensive cf in the NL?

I'd love to see the Dodgers buy low on Ryan Langerhans. I've always thought that he could become a great defensive cf.

76.  75- I'm glad you asked me that. This list was once linked by THE regfairfield. Indisputable proof that it's right!

I don't much trust any rankings. But I also don't trust my eyes. And I don't trust anybody else. So, then what? Can't just ignore it entirely.

Red Sox officially winning negotiation rights to Matsuzaka. Bob's smug dinner-eating attitude fails to bite him in the butt. . . this time.

77.  70. That is a strawman argument. Im not saying we can't trust any numbers, Im saying we can't trust defensive metrics in extremely small sample sizes. Moreover, Im not saying people can't trust their eyes, Im saying we shouldn't trust untrained eyes.

72. The fact that those metrics think guys like Rowand, Jones, Baldelli, Clark, Matthews, and Kotsay were worse than Lofton should tell you how much they're worth. As for Bloomquist and Mackowiak, they weren't full time players, which was my point, I should've made that clear. As for Griffy and Crisp, I can believe those guys could've been worse than Lofton.

The main point here is that I don't think any defensive stat is really that great, and when you try to use them in a small sample size, its useless.

74. Everyone is entitled to express their opinion, I'm not saying anyone can't. Im just saying that I don't find some opinions all that meaningfull, and I feel the freedom to express why.

78.  76. I'd say you can trust the eyes of scouts. Fans obviously can't judge things like scouts can, but you don't have to be a scout to tell that Kemp has a stronger arm and better footspeed than Lofton.

79.  77- The bit about my opinion's being worthless is the only thing we agree on, so far. Although, it's not very nice to come right out and say so.

78- Have the scouts said Kemp was better than Lofton, last year?

80.  Oh, and now I see Bob beat me to the Matsuzaka announcement. So, that's a little embarrassing.

81.  Good news on Loney in the dominican: his Isolated Patience is .104. The bad news is that his batting average is .242, but I think that will improve. Does this mean anything, or are Dominican baseball stats generally worthless?

82.  That is a strawman argument.
I see it as less an argument than making a point about inconsistencies.

83.  80
Shame made me come back sooner.

84.  83- Did you get to watch the presser? By the time I tuned in, it was some guy talking to himself, promising to take phone calls. Then it cut to a color test chart. For some reason.

85.  84
I don't watch pressers. I find it boring to watch someone iron clothes.

86.  Seems that the DRays won the bidding for Akinori Iwamura

http://tinyurl.com/yky6qz

87.  51 million just to win the rights to offer Matsuzaka a contract?! Yikes. So much for the Red Sox "we're poor paupers compared to the Yankees" days.

88.  wow. i wonder if they really plan to sign him or not.

89.  86 - Cool! And they had us all thinking they'd be going after Mulder! ;)

90.  with all this talk about the free agents available does anyone have any out of the box ideas for possible trades and/or free agent acquisitions?

Off the top of my head, what about Ryan Church? Nice talent, wouldn't cost us a boatload to get him...Anyone have any other ideas?

91.  LAT -- if you see this, can you shoot me an email at sam DOT brodsok AT comcast DOT net?

I swear, I'm not trying to horn my way in on the Lerners.

92.  On Adam Dunn
"He's a very strange package," said an American League executive. "The power is incredible, obviously, and he does walk a lot. But the defense is brutal and the strikeouts are brutal. I think they'd move him if they could."
That quote has to be from Bill Stoneman.

93.  92-

hahahahaha. I'd take him. His k's are brutal but it's hard to deny a 400 OBP that hits 40 HR.

94.  Wow, did that commerical just say "It's Shat-tastic!"??

95.  From a book blurb on Amazon.com

"Lynn Robinson, M.Ed., is one of the nation's leading experts on the topic of intuition."

I sort of had a feeling that she was.

96.  95 everybody needs to run to Bob's wish list on Amazon and start shopping NOW :-)

97.  86. Beat me to the punch, but I'm happy nonetheless.

Dodger fans, I know that you may not want to hear this or want the player but Cantu may be on the trading block. He's 25, has 20+ HR potential but just has a horrible glove and lacks range.

98.  8 Am told it was Jim Barr.

http://tinyurl.com/wjgkh

99.  Do we have an accurate total for our current payroll now that JD is gone and we have yet to sign any current freeagents?

Where does Delwyn Young stand in the Dodger outfield projections? I don't have a concrete feeling about where his development is. Mid-season replacement, one year, two years, one good spring training away? Anyone?

100.  I hate being 99, 49, etc...

 

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