Crocks

The notion that Adrian Beltre only performs well when he is motivated is absurd.

The idea that he wasn't motivated during the times in his career that he has slumped is absurd.

The idea that he can turn it on and suddenly excel at the theoretical moment he becomes motivated is absurd.

Beltre struggles to maintain his best level of performance, for whatever reason. He falls into bad habits. For all the theories about Tyler Houston, bone spurs, drugs, Dodger Stadium and ennui, we don't really know why this is.

It's more than plausible - it's realistic - that Beltre has moments of high focus and motivation when he can't hit a lick, and moments when without even thinking about it, the game comes easy like Sunday morning.

If you care to, show me how you know that Beltre didn't care about his performance in 2005 with Seattle. Because everyone with the Mariners that I know of says the guy was working his butt off.

Too many times, we assign pop psychology or knee-jerk explanations without merit. We should aspire to do better than that - whether or not we're motivated to.

* * *

Tonight's Game

Comments

[overkill94]

1.  Obviously we don't know the exact reasons for Beltre's inconsistencies because we don't even know him as a person. But honestly, my most probable explanation is his lack of focus. It's not just the way the stats support the claim (career year going into free agency, 2nd half surges to redeem awful first halves, even his recent success against the Dodgers), it's also just a feeling I get from watching him play. He just seemed to have a different look in his eye in 2004 - a little more determination along with focus. Is that such a terrible judgement?

[Wayne Wei-siang Hsieh]

2.  I think Jon's general point, and he can correct me if I'm wrong, is that really isn't enough evidence for the "motivation" explanation for Beltre's erratic performance.

Jon's of course right, but if we were as judicious as him with our evidence, we'd have a lot less to talk about, eh? =)

Anyhow, though, I do think blaming Beltre for not being focused enough ignores the fact that he could be TOO focused. That's the implication of the term "pressing," no, that a player can sometimes be trying too hard? It may actually be that he just needs to relax.

Regardless, it's clear that none of us really know. What is clear IMO is that Beltre's production is so consistently erratic that I thank the stars we didn't hold on to him.

WWSH

[Jon Weisman]

3.  1 - I don't think focus and motivation are the same thing. I think lack of focus can hamper him at times. I also think you can be motivated and still lose focus, or focus on the wrong things - rather easily, in fact.

[Jon Weisman]

4.  2 - Yes, I think he presses and as I just said, sometimes forgets/misremembers what's important at the plate.

The problem I have with not being judicious about how we discuss it is that when it comes time for Beltre's story to be summed up, I'd hate for it to rest on ill-serving myth. I'm not trying to keep people from having fun, of course, but I don't see what's fun about dubious assertions.

Feel free to prove me wrong, of course.

[Wayne Wei-siang Hsieh]

5.  BTW, a larger point I'd like to make is that I think fans way too often make moral judgments about ballplayers. Hence the implication of some that Beltre is some kind of mercenary who only plays well if a big payday depends on it. That could be true, but I do think ballplayers, like everyone else, do deserve the benefit of the doubt. Beltre might just "naturally" be a player who has the sort of spotty track record he has. Not giving him an excessive contract is thus simply a recognition of his actual ability, measured in objective terms, as opposed to a judgement on his worth as a human being.

Of course, part of the enjoyment of baseball is we attach subjective, even ethical, factors to it. That's certainly partly true for me. I take a genuine glee in the defeat of the Giants. I have a real feeling of contempt for the smugness of the Yankee franchise. After all, we all probably spend too much time on baseball, when measured by any rational cost-benefit analysis.

How that goes with the first paragraph of my comment--I have absolutely no idea...

WWSH

[Bluebleeder87]

6.  all I know is that he's been playing like the '04 Beltre against us, & I don't like it!

[dzzrtRatt]

7.  Hargrove's quotes in the story from the Seattle papers a couple weeks ago rang true for me, mainly b/c Hargrove knows the man.

Pop-psych is hard to avoid, but combining what I know about Beltre with what Hargrove said, I think Beltre has always been sort of the ingenue, the young guy who blew away more experienced players, and got approval from that. When he reached the major league level, where a lot of players were at his level, he think that to win approval, he has to be way better than the best. When, in fact, all Seattle's paying for is for him to be a little better than the best. Ergo, he's been pressing, nonstop, and we know that doesn't work.

I'll further speculate that returning to Dodger Stadium gave him a sense-memory of when the game was fun, like in 2004, and his neural pathways allowed the good vibes to flow again.

If this is true, Seattle might see a big turnaround and date it to this series. I have to admit I'm rooting for Adrian.

[Steve]

8.  a larger point I'd like to make is that I think fans way too often make moral judgments about ballplayers

They take their cues from the media, which has a deal with the players they cover not to criticize their talent. This leads to the code words we are all familiar with. People then appear to take this dance seriously.

[Bluebleeder87]

9.  It's gonna be interesting to watch Izzy play 3rd base for the frist time, although I do agree keeping Aybar would have been good, sending Kou down would have been o.k. for me.

[Bluebleeder87]

10.  don't know if anybody cares but Roger Clemens is strugling 2-0 Twins & making alot of pitches.

[thinkblue0]

11.  9-

if furcal, lofton AND izzy all play we're in trouble.

[Bluebleeder87]

12.  there all in the line up, Izzy's glove at 3rd don't bother me the throws maybe, but not the glove, I just hope Furcal starts hitting already.

[thinkblue0]

13.  I hope this is just showcasing for a trade...because I can't, for the life of me, figure out why anyone is advocating having Izturis in the lineup.

[Scanman33]

14.  People like to use terms like "They're pressing," or "They're not motivated" because it doesn't take any real knowledge of the intricacies of baseball to make that observation. It also doesn't take as much work to come to that conclusion. Plus, people like to throw this "explanation" out there because it makes them feel as if being a major league baseball player is just like their own job: We feel if we are unmotivated by our jobs, we don't work as well. Never mind the fact that hitting and catching a baseball is probably 100,000 times harder than what we do in our daily jobs.

This oversimplicification of analysis has been shoved down our throats by the ESPNs of the world, who realize their audience doesn't want an intricate explanation for things, but a canned 10 second notion from an ex-ballplayer who we can point at and say, "Hey, he reminds me of me!"

[overkill94]

15.  1] For all the flak that the Furcal/Lofton/Izzy trio gets, is it that much different than having Aybar instead? Sure he had a little pop, but it's not like we're replacing a power hitter with a banjo-hitter. If Izzy can simply keep his OBP around .350 and play good defense, I don't see why he should take any heat.

[overkill94]

16.  14 This isn't a totally unfounded notion though, his career stats seem to back it up. Sure it's not a correlation you can directly analyze, but it's at least something to think about.

[EricNus]

17.  As a Dodger fan and a big Beltre fan living in Seattle, I can say that Mariner fans generally like Beltre the person. They think he is a great guy, a class act, and realize he is a hard worker. Most Seattle fans I have spoken to think he pushes way too hard and sucks because of it.

Watching most of his plate appearances, I think that is the best theory. When he relaxes and just hits, he does well. Thankfully he seems to be reaching that point.

[ninjavshippo]

18.  12
I think Jon said it yesterday, but is the throw from 3rd really any less than the throw from the hole @ SS?

[Scanman33]

19.  I think people don't want to believe that his 04 was an abberation...a perfect storm of his abilities coming together, so to speak. I'd say the big drop in his walk rate has a lot to do with his breakout season. Is he as bad as he has shown? Probably not, but to expect anything above .340/.450 is just pie in the sky thinking.

My totally unsubstantiated and unresearched feeling is that he either has an injury or he went off steroids. Beltre was never the type to hit no doubters, so either malady could hurt his bat speed and take 15-20 feet off of balls that went over the fence for him in 04.

[Scanman33]

20.  19-I meant spike, not drop

[dsfan]

21.  9-

Not that Kuo's any great shakes, but dropping him to place Izzy would've weakened an already enfeebled pitching staff. They don't have much quality, so they're pretty much forced to go with extra quantity. Probably better to go with 12 pithers, because the starters check out so early night after night.
A position player was the best choice to free the spot for Izzy.

[Bluebleeder87]

22.  Maybe I'm wrong but mentaly? I'm sure he'll settle down but that's an opstical at times no?

[bigcpa]

23.  14 This morning on Dodger Recap or whatever A. Martinez was apologizing for Baez saying he's been jerked in and out of different "roles." As if relief pitching in general isn't a "role." Does Baez really stare down the hitter and think "I am pitching in the 7th inning. What now?" More garbage analysis- and I thought he was pretty good on Dodger Talk post-Porter.

[Bluebleeder87]

24.  But Aybar is a such a great hitter though.

[GoBears]

25.  This oversimplicification of analysis has been shoved down our throats by the ESPNs of the world, who realize their audience doesn't want an intricate explanation for things, but a canned 10 second notion from an ex-ballplayer who we can point at and say, "Hey, he reminds me of me!"

Fair enough, but do you remember what sports coverage was like before ESPN? Local junk and a few national hagiographers. ESPN has now been surpassed by the internet, but it was a quantum leap forward in sophisticated sports coverage 25 years ago.

As for Beltre, Amen to Jon's post. But I always liked the bone spurs theory. I remember coming up with it (probably at the same time as 1,000 other observers) early in that 2004 season. I saw him lunge, as usual, for a slider low and away, fall to the ground in pain, and then lay off that pitch thereafter. Lo and behold, good hitter's counts and better results followed. He'd forget after a while, lunge, crumple, and re-learn the lesson.

Of course, that might explain the start of his great season, but it can't explain why he'd keep forgetting the lesson, and eventually fail to re-learn in once his ankle was again healthy. That speaks to the power of ingrained bad habits, lack of focus, pressing, whatever.

[dzzrtRatt]

26.  14 You've got two concepts rubbing together that are very different.

"Not motivated." Yeah, I agree, that's often thrown around when it's not warranted. It's cynical and often a product of envy.

"Pressing." Actually I've heard many players themselves provide that explanation, so my using it doesn't constitute "oversimplification."

I agree, on his worst day, Adrian Beltre performs at a level that most of us will never reach in any endeavor. But he is a human being, not a robot, and I think it's fair to say we're all passingly familiar with the complex psychology of human beings. Often the explanations for mysterious changes in behavior or performance are just that simple.

[Bluebleeder87]

27.  who could we have sent down? (position)

[Scanman33]

28.  By playing Izturis, the Dodgers are putting out the idea that they need him. In doing so, they feel like they're driving up his value. So when the calls come in, Neddy can say, "I'm going to need more of an offer to justify moving ym starting 3B".

[GoBears]

29.  I know Jon wants to lay off the pitchers for a while, but I have a simple factual question (and I promise that it's sincere). Did Billingsley induce even one swing-and-miss last night? If so, was it only by Washburn? I didn't want to go back through the whole broadcast, but near the end of his 5 innings, it occurred to me that I couldn't remember even one pitch that wasn't hit (fair or foul) or eschewed. I remember some called strikes, and of course the foul balls, but no misses.

Even if I'm right, I refuse to infer anything about the next 15 years of his career from this odd turn of events. I wonder if he really was tipping his pitches.

[Bluebleeder87]

30.  Loriano is out pitching Clemens

[natepurcell]

31.  29

he struck out sexson on a swing and miss curveball.

[Bob Timmermann]

32.  29
Richie Sexons struck out swinging in the third inning. That was the only time somebody swung and missed.

[Bob Timmermann]

33.  Mine took longer to post because I misspelled Sexson!

[GoBears]

34.  31. Thanks. I do remember that now. Phew. Anyone else? And I don't mean for strike 3 alone.

[Bob Timmermann]

35.  Beltre swung and missed on a Billingsley pitch in the 4th according to the ESPN box.

[StolenMonkey86]

36.  10 - I care, Liriano's on my fantasy team. The Dodgers will see him, and Johan Santana, this weekend after the Pirates.

Incidentally, I dropped tonight's starter, Felix Hernandez, because he doesn't quite have it all down yet. He strikes people out, but gives up the long ball a lot, including 3 to the Giants on June 16. The crazy thing, though, is that he's just a couple months over 20.

[dsfan]

37.  The most plausible explanation I've heard for Beltre is that the 2004 foot injury improved his balance, increasing his ability to stay on the ball. He had been a lunging hitter, to his detriment, regularly just a tick too anxious. A slight mechanical fix can be profound when you have a very good athlete who'd shown good all-fields power on certain other pitchers but needed to narrow some holes.

Makeup? His remarkable durability suggests toughness and desire. You simply cannot play that much baseball Beltre had from age 16 onward unless you have those qualities.

I buy that PEDs can increase batspeed, or at least prevent it from waning by fostering quicker recovery. In turn, that could better allow a hitter to wait on pitches. But I don't think he was a PED guy, and if the LA media didn't indulge that speculation, whereas others do, bully for the LA media.

Tony Gwynn even said in the 2004 season that it was evident that Beltre was staying back on pitches better and attributed it to the foot/ankle spurs. Said his body was in a more balanced hitting position at the right time.
As for the subsequent reversion, that seems fairly logical, given the amount of muscle memory that preceded 2004. My hope is Beltre can tune into his '04 mechanics on a more consistent basis.

I can buy Beltre's suggestion that he would've fared better for the Dodgers in '05 than he did for Seattle. But I doubt he would'be approached his '04 numbers. I also believe he pushed through a leg injury last year and that it reduced his overall performance.

[Steve]

38.  This morning on Dodger Recap or whatever A. Martinez was apologizing for Baez saying he's been jerked in and out of different "roles."

Exactly. Pap. A complete abdication of any responsibility to truth. It's merely corruption masquerading as analysis.

[StolenMonkey86]

39.  Average age of tonight's lineup: 30.3 years old.

If you (hypothetically) had Aybar in instead of Kent and Kemp instead of Lofton, the average age of the lineup would drop to 26.7, leaving Izturis still in the younger half.

Is that why Grady keeps referring to Cesar as a "kid"?

[Steve]

40.  A Martinez -- that's the 9 homerun, 100 RBI guy. OK. With him, it might just be he's stupid.

[bigcpa]

41.  38 Amazing to think that sites like Baseball Prospectus can jump to the head of the line- right past the global behemoth ESPN- just by disclosing that certain players "suck" and backing it up.

[Rich Lederer]

42.  We should aspire to do better than that - whether or not we're motivated to.

Pure journalistic gold in the context of that article.

[Steve]

43.  Danys Baez is an insult to the word suck. He requires a whole new verb. Perhaps Danys Baez kolbs.

[natepurcell]

44.  Beltre's going to cap off this series with a 2 homerun night.

[Bluebleeder87]

45.  Dodgers live said Hernandez is 4-0 in his last 4 starts yikes!

[natepurcell]

46.  3 shortstops in the infield might actually be a decent idea for whenever lowe pitches.

[Bluebleeder87]

47.  nice start

[ninjavshippo]

48.  40
Why is A Martinez speaking on behalf of Baez?

http://www.imdb.com/name/nm0553436/

[ninjavshippo]

49.  Gotta give it to Lowe. Ever since the end of last season, he's been a lot better and worth the megabucks.

[Bluebleeder87]

50.  44

Beltre's going to hit in to 2 DP's, strike out ounce & hit a scramer to old friend Izzy but Izzy will make an easy play on it.

[Gen3Blue]

51.  Something I wanted to say today but held off on in deference to Jon's moritorium on pitching theory. I'll make it brief. In general, the best type for middle relievers are old vet pitchers who have been out there and seen pressure hundreds of times. Take Saito. The worst are rookies with great stuff, who are facing great pressure (this is one of my few chances to shine in the majors). They get wild and shook and walk people. See Kuo and Broxton. This is a broad statement -- there are many exceptions.
Thats all for now.

[EricNus]

52.  Is it totally ridiculous to rearrange the infield putting Nomar at third, Kent at first, and Cesar at second? Sorry if this has come up before, and I realize it's a pretty seismic change...but maybe it would be a better way to maximize the talents of the four players?

[Gagne55]

53.  Tomko not starting. Lowe gets the start instead. Losing streak might actually end, then. Does this mean Perez is forced back to the rotation tomorrow?

[Bob Timmermann]

54.  51

The most notable exception would have been Pedro Martinez.

[ninjavshippo]

55.  I suspect OP will have to get at least one or two more starts, given how shallow our rotation is, before they decide what to do with him.

[Andrew Shimmin]

56.  Broxton also makes a pretty good exception, since he's had a fine year for a middle reliever.

[dsfan]

57.  41
No disrespect to BP, but ESPN sold out a long time ago.

[Gen3Blue]

58.  This site acknowledges the psychological component of baseball and the last decade as a D's fan has driven how important this is home. I'm fascinated watching how we are now in a losers head, and how meekly our batters go. It doesn't matter who is pitching. From my experience it will only change when some individual really does something to break the mold.

[Andrew Shimmin]

59.  I could be wrong about this, but it seems like ESPN is showing more sports recently, than it had been. I haven't seen any quiz shows or that Frankly guy on the primary ESPN in a while now. Could be a sampling error, or maybe they really did stop trying to be MTV.

[Gen3Blue]

60.  54 Yes, and also the lesson that someone with any talent should be a starter.

[ninjavshippo]

61.  I was just checking VORP over @ BP and saw that we're getting by with basically six pitchers (Penny, Lowe, Saito, Sele, Broxton, Beimel), and I think we all expect Sele to Erickson out soon.

That's kind of sad. Going into the season, I could have sworn pitching would be one of our strengths.

[natepurcell]

62.  uhhh... did the ump know what were strikes and what weren't in that AB?

[Gen3Blue]

63.  I hate to say it, but Kent and Drew have been tough baggage for the Rooks to carry this week.

[scareduck]

64.  That's kind of sad. Going into the season, I could have sworn pitching would be one of our strengths.

Given what was in the rotation, I would have said that was a mistake.

BTW, Jon, just for my own curiosity, today's column isn't aimed at moi, is it?

[ninjavshippo]

65.  I agree w/ the previous contention that Drew hasn't contributed enough recently.

[Bluebleeder87]

66.  Izzy is still perfect

[ninjavshippo]

67.  Come on golden boy...

[Bluebleeder87]

68.  well let's hope we get that run back

[Bluebleeder87]

69.  you guys think Drew is still hurt?

[Bluebleeder87]

70.  I know Kent is still feeling his way back from being on the DL.

[Sam DC]

71.  Chris Needham who runs the Capitol Punishment blog posted this kind of cool comment re the BAL/FL game in the comments of a Nationals chat site:

"Awesome! FLA/BAL, Top 10, runner on second with Miguel Cabrera at the plate. They tried IBBing him, but the pitche was just into the opposite hitter's box, so Cabrera stepped forward, lunged at the high 'fastball' and smacked it into centerfield for the go-ahead RBI!

— Chris, 19 minutes ago"

[Gagne55]

72.  That homerun basically ended the game. Dodgers lose... again.

[Bluebleeder87]

73.  71

Wow

[DXMachina]

74.  63 - I agree about Drew. He's been in a bad slump, but Kent's hit .355/.412/.581 since he came back from the DL. Maybe it's time for Grady to flip them in the line up, like he did when Kent was having the miserable April.

[ToyCannon]

75.  Hard to believe but I'd rather have the Mariner starting lineup then ours. Only Nomar is noticably better and that is only because Sexson is not having his normal year.

[Bluebleeder87]

76.  Nomar's hot let's hope he hits a dinger

[Sam DC]

77.  72 Huh? Don't we have the top scoring offense in the league?

[DXMachina]

78.  72 That homerun basically ended the game. Dodgers lose... again.

Wow. I didn't know you could have a walk off home run in the third inning.

[Sam DC]

79.  77 Or is my sarcasm detector malfunctioning again.

[JoeyP]

80.  Betancourt hitting a home run off Derek Lowe was about the most improbable thing I could think of happening in tonite's game.

[ninjavshippo]

81.  Lowe is one tough AB...

[Bob Timmermann]

82.  79
This sarcasm detector is off the charts!

[ninjavshippo]

83.  82
My sarcasm detector is set to stun... I'm not sure what that means.

[Bluebleeder87]

84.  HALLO!

[Marty]

85.  I gotta say I'm very impressed with my first look at King Felix. Is there any way we can kidnap him?

[ninjavshippo]

86.  Lowe the destroyer!

[Sam DC]

87.  clap clap clap clap!

[DXMachina]

88.  Brushback hit. :)

[JoeyP]

89.  Ok the 2nd most improbable thing is Lowe having a 10 pitch at bat against Felix and getting a base hit.

[Bob Timmermann]

90.  80

Think harder.

For example, I think it is highly unlikely that Kenny Lofton will turn an unassisted triple play.

I find it unlikely that Kenjie Johjima will hit four triples.

[Bluebleeder87]

91.  83

Lowe was having a good at-bat fouling off pitches & so forth, to top it off he hita bullet that almost took Hernandez head off, it was sweet

[Andrew Shimmin]

92.  Nate, please report to comment 85 and await further instructions.

[Marty]

93.  What do people who know about such things think of his mechanics. It sure looks like he whips his arm around.

[Greg Brock]

94.  You might be a pitcher on the basepaths if you jog into right center field on a double play attempt.

[Bluebleeder87]

95.  85

Not a bad idea consedering our pitching situation

[natepurcell]

96.  92

I've looked into this already. Almost possible. They have secret service with him 24/7

[JoeyP]

97.  This lineup is missing a Bison.

[JoeyP]

98.  I just noticed that Gameday shows Beltre with 11 errors. Thats quite a few for it only being June, and Beltre only playing 3rd.

[MartinBillingsley31]

99.  Lofton's tanking 747 ops now.
Meanwhile kemp is waisting away on the bench opsing 1046.

[Bluebleeder87]

100.  that little breaking ball stayed up.