Dodger Thoughts

Jon Weisman's outlet for dealing psychologically with the Los Angeles Dodgers and baseball

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May 23, 2006

When Worlds Collide ... in a Good Way

May 23, 2006 |  1:51 pm

Hope you'll excuse or enjoy the following stat-happy cruise ...

Some people value walks, others value the stolen base. Right now, the Dodgers are getting close to the best of both worlds. The team ranks second in the major leagues with 197 walks, fourth in the majors with a .357 on-base percentage, tied for first with 42 stolen bases and tied for sixth with an 80.8 percent stolen-base success rate.

That, plus some strangely effective pitching - the Dodgers are third in baseball in ERA despite being 19th in strikeouts per inning pitched - has soothed a power deficiency that has left Los Angeles 21st in the majors in hitting home runs and 16th in slugging percentage.

The sluggish strikeout rate for the pitchers, plus the fact that the Dodgers have been slightly lucky as far as the opposition's batting average on balls in play (.288, 11th-lowest in baseball) has me thinking that the pitching has a good chance to decline. However, if the team can preserve its judicious rate of home runs allowed (sixth-best in baseball), the ERA might stay reasonably in line.

Meanwhile, there's every possibility that the Dodgers will avoid an on-base slump, thanks in part to the recent additions of Willy Aybar and Russell Martin. Walkers such as Rafael Furcal and Jose Cruz, Jr. must also be given due credit for their strike-zone judgment in a season in which pitchers have had no reason to fear challenging them.

In addition, even taking into account Furcal getting thrown out on five of his past nine steal attempts and Kenny Lofton's somewhat strange adventures trying to take an extra base, the team's baserunning looks like it can continue to be an overall asset. When it comes to baserunning, good or bad, I'm guessing that what you see after 40 games tends to be what you get for the whole year. Maybe I'm wrong.

In any case, baserunning is secondary to on-base percentage - the team wouldn't have all these baserunning opportunities if they weren't getting on base to begin with. With both things working, at least for now, the Dodgers have found a way around their power shortage. Isn't it nice that despite all fears, walks have been embraced (however accidentally) by the current Dodger team?

* * *

Though they helped market the concept of "Tracyball" in embarrassing fashion, I've been impressed with how clearheaded the Pittsburgh beat writers have been in evaluating Jim Tracy's tenure with the Pirates. In calm fashion, while keeping in perspective the overall situation in Pittsburgh, they continue to raise questions and poke holes. The latest example is this chat with Dejan Kovacevic of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette:

nice_throw__Barry: Under "Lloyd Tracy" the Pirates have been playing very poor fundamental baseball. I have not been cynical and have preached to my friends to give Tracy's staff 2 months for the teaching to set in. Will Tracy be able to stop the 5 years of poor fundamentals, or will a change in players be the only cure?

Dejan Kovacevic: So far, it seems just about everything Tracy preached on a daily basis through spring training has failed to come about. More walks? No, last in the league. Throw more strikes? No. Moving runners along? Not at all, as has been highlighted in these past couple of games. Steals? Good ratio -- 21 of 26 -- but not much of a total. Winning one-run games? Well, you know how that one has turned out. It remains to be seen how much of this is on the coaches and how much on the players, I agree. For the moment, though, it looks bad for both.

Steve_Z: Geez Dejan, Tracy's killing us with Jose H. and Jeremy B.? What's he thinking about?

Dejan Kovacevic: On the first count, Tracy clearly feels a loyalty to a player who did quite well for him on a 2004 Dodgers team that he holds in - how to put this? - the very, very, very highest regard. Just as clearly, that player is no longer the same, and one wonders how much longer this can last. As for Burnitz: Don't overthink it. Management signs someone to a guaranteed $6.7 million, and he is going to play. Even Burnitz has acknowledged this much.

lz1: Jim Leyland has done wonders with the Detroit Tigers this season so far. How do you think he would have fared in comparison with Jim Tracy if Leyland was indeed the current Pirates skipper?

Dejan Kovacevic: Probably better, but maybe not for the reasons you think. I will cite two: 1. He was intimately familiar with the talent at hand from having spent so much time at PNC Park over the past few summers. As a result, it is far less likely, I think, that he would have tried to alter anything about the styles of Zach Duke, Chris Duffy, Jose Castillo and others. That might have allowed all those players to continue their natural progressions. 2. He would have thrown enough food about the clubhouse to feed half of Sudan. ...

* * *

Tonight's Game


Comments (309)

1.  Isn't it nice that despite all fears, walks have been embraced (however accidentally) by the current Dodger team?

Yeah. Whatever happened to Grittle's aversion to "that Oakland thing"?

2.  Walkers such as Rafael Furcal and Jose Cruz, Jr. must also be given due credit for their strike-zone judgment in a season in which pitchers have had no reason to fear challenging them

How long will pitchers continue to avoid challenging them?

3.  Getting in late from the last thread. I was astonished that anyone would not know that the term "rubber match" came from the card game Bridge. I used to play a lot of Bridge, so that may explain it, but it seems like that's one of those "sure, everyone knows that" things.

4.  2. At some point, Cruz may become a late inning defensive replacement and strict platoon agaist RH. I think his lack of production from the leftside and the plan to play Lofton about 60-70% of the time will possibly either bring a trade (unlikely) or a callup Guzman or Kemp.

Also, Furcal, Drew and Kent have always been fairly decent in drawing walks. Garciaparra is showing better plate discipline while still mashing the ball and while 2 out of 3 kids have shown good eyes in the minors, we'll see what happens when the league sees them a second time.

5.  3. I never played Bridge in my life. Am more of a pinochle player. To me, Bridge is what my grandparents use to play when I was a little kid.

Baseball.
What happens when Navarro comes off of the DL? vr, Xei

6.  3 - I have listened to Vinny for many a year and until Sunday, never knew that the phrase "in the hold" came from old ship lingo.

7.  5 You're missing a great game. Bridge has a steep learning curve; you need to learn all the conventions or you won't bid right, and then, you need to think about proper play and communication between your hand and your partner's hand. Learning this stuff might be more work than some people are willing to put in to learn a card game, but for me, it was a really satisfying game when I played it well.

Now, I haven't played in 10 years and have forgotten everything.

8.  Is there a way to look up how we compare in scoring with two outs. I don't know if its just me but it seems like the Dodgers are getting a lot of two out runs.

9.  5 - As opposed to pinochle?? :)

10.  almost?

11.  I came from a pinochle family, although my family's rules did not seem to match any that I ever found in any printed source.

We had lots of our own lingo.

The weird thing in pinochle is trying to remember that 10s beat the face cards.

12.  10 - You know, "almost" appears twice in the above post, and I should probably cut them both out. I'm almost sure of it.

13.  Jon, I completely agree with you about the baseball savvy shown by the Pittsburgh sports media. I think it also shines a glaring light on the lack of said savvy of many of our local reporters.

14.  I love how Tracy has become a little GM in Pittsburgh just as he was here. If you need to point to his biggest flaw, that has to be it.

15.  Bridge is the second-best card game there is and I've tried to get my friends interested in learning it but to no avail.

16.  13 - could we maybe convince the Times to fire Plaschkers and hire this Kovacevic guy?

17.  Oh do these comments sound like some posts here in DT in say about July 2005...

Bob_M: I agree with playing the youngsters. Even if it does not improve the record, it will make for a much more interesting season. What would most people rather see, an aging veteran who had an average career try to hold on for one more season, or a youngster trying to sink or swim?

Dejan Kovacevic: If you ask the upper levels of Pirates management, they seem convinced the public in Pittsburgh would prefer to see a "competitive" team -- a term I hear often -- as opposed to one that is young and takes its lumps. I would beg to differ, but no one is asking me.

Wilbur_Miller: Has anybody in management been able to explain how the Burnitzes, Simons and Randas of the world make the Pirates "competitive?" I mean, really, how connected to reality are these people?

Dejan Kovacevic: Well, that aside, the larger issue, Wilbur, might be how connected they are to the fan base. Only about 99.9 percent of the mail I get strongly, vocally advocates going young. Now, I understand that I am hearing mostly from diehards and the club has to sell tickets to all types of fireworks lovers, but that general sentiment -- and you hear it all over -- has to represent enough of a groundswell to justify doing the right thing.

Bob_M: As a side note, I always enjoyed your writing on the Penguins, and now with the Pirates. I hope in the near future you are writing (and I'll be reading) about meaningful games after the All-Star break.

Dejan Kovacevic: I appreciate that, Bob, but I'm afraid meaningful baseball will have to hold until next April. Unless, of course, the team goes young. That, to me, would represent something plenty exciting to cover and, from a reader's standpoint, to follow.

18.  Sort of a belated comment from yesterday, but for once I got to go to a game...

How does defense figure into all this? Yesterday, I think they had 2 outfield assists at the plate and 3 double plays. Save for that Aybar error in the first and a missed (albeit tough) diving try in center, could snappy defense be helping in keeping the team ERA so low? Any stats available for that?

19.  Canasta was the game I played with my parents. They also played bridge but probably thought it to strenous for the younguns to play adequately.

Why this comment?

[Isn't it nice that despite all fears, walks have been embraced (however accidentally) by the current Dodger team?]

What makes you think it is an accident? Didn't Grady come over from the RedSox who were one of the most patient teams in baseball during his reign? Manny, Ortiz, Nixon, Varitek, Mueller and Damon are all known for the ability to take a walk.

20.  7 I also like bridge and haven't played in at least 10 years, probably 15. It is likely the one game my kids would have a hard time picking up and enjoying. So we stick to fun board games like Settlers of Catan and Puerto Rico. Amazing how 6-8 year olds can pick up complex rules as long as they involve colorful pieces.

21.  12 The first 'almost' could stand to be removed. I think the second one is 5/6 right - just change the 'l' to a ' ' and you're good to go.

22.  We used to play canasta in the back of the van on the way from LA to Seattle. Those were the days when you could lay some boards over the luggage and sit in back, without any fear about wearing seatbelts. I still love canasta.

23.  Tracy clearly feels a loyalty to a player who did quite well for him on a 2004 Dodgers team that he holds in - how to put this? - the very, very, very highest regard.

That was funny.

24.  20 This comment has made my day. Another boardgamer!

I'm currently addicted to Caylus, but I'm not any good at it. My favorite (non-current addiction category) is El Grande or San Marco...

25.  20 It's good to hear that 6-8-year-olds can pick up these games... our gaming group -- all in their early 30s -- are starting to breed now and we're wondering at what point the kids will be able to join in. It seems like a great family activity, but the rules can be complicated.

26.  I played a version of contract rummy called "Shanghai", you could google it, kids can play it with adults, it is a good time killer.

27.  19 - I just wasn't sure how conscious it was on Little and Colletti's part to put together a team that might lead the team in walks. I think it's possible that they look at walks as a fringe benefit. I don't know.

28.  24 Nice to see another gamer! I'll have to look at Caylus. We've played San Marco, but not as much as Puerto Rico, and we haven't yet bought El Grande. Ticket to Ride is also fun. My kids always bug me to pay "Super Settlers", which for us refers to taking all the sets, mixing them up, and making as large and convoluted a map as we can.

29.  25 Start them young with easier games and work them up to it. Also, let them play with you on a 'team' ... eventually they figure it all out. Mine are rapidly reaching the point where they are a serious challenge.

30.  I used to play Shanghai on computer.

I would say that Backgammon, Gin, Hearts, Monopoly and Scrabble have been my most common non-computer game pursuits - off the top of my head, anyway.

31.  15 I think bridge is the best four-handed game there is; gin and cribbage the best two-handed game. Pinochle is a good three-hand game. I play bridge on the ocmputer; don't know people in LA interested in playing bridge, although I guess there must be multiple thousands.

32.  18. the Dodger defense ranks 6th among NL teams in Defensive Efficiency, and 11th overall. The davenport translations show Kent and Martin to be excellent defenders so far, while Furcal and Mueller have been nearly replacement level defenders. Every one else is right around average, including Nomar.

33.  We played bridge, pinochle, and several versions of canasta as kids. Those were the days before the Walkman, cable TV, videos, and video games. Other than reading, diversion pretty much required interaction, and in the times that I lived outside California, there were plenty of lousy-weather days that forced us to stay inside. Card games were the modal activity.

For the pinochle fans, my brother pulled double Aces-around in pinochle one time (only time I've ever seen it - it basically ends the game) and forgot to "bury." As his competitive older brother, I sure wasn't going to remind him. Once we'd played a set of cards and it was too late for him to correct his mistake, I pointed it out, voiding the hand, and pretty much ending his willingness ever to play pinochle again. That was rougly 25-26 years ago - I think he's still ticked off.

34.  Funny story. One of my good friends is from Chicago and he was back for a wedding the weekend of the Cubs/Padres series. So pretty late friday night (night before the Piazza homer game), he is out with the guys from the wedding party at a neighborhood bar somewhere. And he looks over and sees Dusty Baker at the bar picking up takeout! So my buddy goes over and starts talking to him (Cubs had gotten shellacked that night) and spent about half an hour buying him drinks and stuff. Apparently, Baker told them about watching Hank Aaron hit #714.

Best part. One of the other guys (not my friend!) asked if the Cubs could do better by adopting the White Sox smartball approach. Baker basically said, "[profanity] smartball, [profanity] smallball, you give me those starting pitchers and I'll win playing baseball."

True story -- I've got pictures.

35.  Oh yeah, lots of backgammon and cribbage too.

36.  Caylus is a bit heavier (more of a "gamer's game") than San Marco, Ticket to Ride, Settlers, or even Puerto Rico. Definitely check it out, but make sure you think it would be good for your kids before buying...

If your kids like the big board, try Railroad Tycoon. They should be able to handle it if they can handle Puerto Rico. It's a very good game and the big board is very cool.

37.  30 Monopoly? Boo! Hiss! :)

If you like board games, you might want to check out some of the games Daniel and I have been describing. Rather than Monopoly's roll-and-move-and-do-what-it-tells-you philosophy, these games are all about choices -- there are any number of things that you CAN do, but you have to choose one or two of them. They're less luck-dependent than Monopoly, more about making a strategy and implementing it without incurring the wrath of your opponents...

38.  37 - You're assuming that I'm looking for some high-end intellectual experience when I play Monopoly.

Of course, it should go without saying that my all-time favorite game was Strat-o-Matic.

39.  My favorite was All-Star Baseball, trying to gauge how hard to spin that dial was always fun.

Strat-O-Matic taught me about Sliding Billy Hamilton.

Backgammon is something that comes along in your life and then leaves like acne. Well at least in acne's case I hope so.

40.  34 I have to agree with Mr. Baker there. Where did Chicago rank in offense for all their "smartball"? They had great pitching, with which you can win without great hitting.

Jon, you have a typo in the last paragraph before the Kovacevic chat stuff: "...the Dodgers have found away around their power shortage."

41.  The Dodgers have had good luck with the A-E disc this year.

42.  40. More to the point, they hit a ton of HRs. Smallball not only was not the reason they won, it was also not the way they played. Oh sure, Ozzie would have them run around and give up outs just to keep the games competitive, but the rest is a myth.

43.  39. I still find Internet Backgammon a reasonably fun way to pass the time when I'm on hold. Or "talking" to my mother, which is pretty much the same thing in terms of the number of words coming from my end.

44.  40 - thanks

45.  43
Wait a second...are you my long-lost brother?

46.  For all you fathers out there, the best place to teach a kid card games, is on plane rides. They are captive and bored and welcome any entertainmetn at that point. That where I tought my daughter poker, gin and blackjack. Of course, after that they make you play ALL THE TIME. (200+ hands of poker on the way home from Australia)

47.  5

DL? vr, Xei

what dose that mean?

48.  DL = Disabled List

49.  48

vr, Xei I mean.

50.  vr, Xei = Very respectfully, Xei

51.  Lofton is playing tonight, so I guess he's healthy. Cruz gets the night off

52.  A very common closing to a letter or a memo in the military. That is why I assumed Xei was in the Navy.

53.  50

that's a new one to me. Where do you come up with those words?

55.  50

you were in the navy? how many push ups could you do in your "hay day"?

54.  50

you were in the navy? how many push ups could you do in your "hay day"?

56.  Hornblower and possibly Aubrey think whist is the best card game for its parts from Bridge, hearts and canasta, without feeling as exclusive as Bridge.

57.  Quick fantasy question for 'yall: I need to sit one of the following two players in my lineup tonight: Jonny Gomes vs. Roy Halladay, or JD Drew vs. Jason Jennings. Which would you choose? How's Drew been swingin' the bat lately?

58.  56 You can't mention whist and NOT mention Phileas Fogg as well. If only someone made a great "80 Days" movie.... though David Niven was an excellent casting decision.

59.  I would sit down Drew. He seems a bit lost right now.

60.  59

atleast he threw out, the Colorado runner.

61.  He is hitting .286 with an .851 OPS over the last week. He's certainly not horrible.

62.  61 Yes, I wouldn't have asked if I didn't think it was a tough question. Gomes is a total stud this year, but so is Halladay. So does Halladay reduce Gomes to being less than Drew vs. an average pitcher?

63.  57 - when it doubt, go to stats:
Drew vs. Jennings 4/11 all singles.
Gomes vs. Halladay 3/11, 1 HR with 6 Ks.

Halladay certainly has pitched better but Drew does seem to swinging and missing at a lot of offspeed stuff, outside his PH homer.

64.  55 67 in 2 minutes. No need to do more, since that is what's required to max out that portion of the PRT (physical readiness test). Ran the 1-1/2 mile in 8:24, but still not fast enough to max out the score. Never could max out the curl ups (known as situps in the civilian world) neither. I pump out 70 in the first minute, then struggle to get 10 more in the next minute. I guess to much fast twitch fibers in my abs.

65.  Well, it's decided now, I went with Bob's suggestion and put Gomes in the lineup.

66.  Breaking news: Old (or recent) friend Cody Ross has just been activated from the DL by the Reds. You can adjust your fantasy rosters accordingly.

67.  64

that's pretty good. now that you mention 67 in 2 minutes I gotta time my self.

68.  (31) Trivia Question:

What well known Dodger from the past was a World Class Bridge Player?

69.  65

Gomes is a real good ball player, good choise, He (as you probably know) played in the Mexican leugue for one year.(to work on his swing or something) his parents are from Portugal I think?

70.  My late friend Alan (who was as big a Giants fan as I was a Dodgers fan) and I used to play dice baseball which I found in a book entitled "The Second Fireside Book of Baseball" edited by Charles Einstein (c. 1958 by Simon & Shuster). The there were both a simple and a more complicated version of the game described in the book, which can be found on pp. 260-261. Though it was obviously not stat oriented, or sophisticated by today's standards, it was free and lots of fun. You could play nine innnings in about 20 minutes. We spent many happy hours letting the dice determine the fate of our bitter rivals during our late childhood and early adolescence in the late 50s and early 60s.

71.  68 My guess would be Wes Parker.

72.  Jimmy Rollins should learn bridge.

73.  57-

As the three time champion of my keeper league (for whatever that's worth) I'd sit Gomes. Halladay is just too dominant, and Drew isn't hitting all that great right now but there's always at least a good chance he can draw a walk or two against Jennings.

While Gomes is dominating....I wouldn't trust him against Halladay...he's just too good.

74.  If JD Drew hits three home runs tonight, Ken is going to come after with some weird Swedish weapon.

75.  74-

I can loan him my leather Viking mask.

76.  My dad taught us a dice baseball game that was quite clever for the time. He created it in the early 60's and he taught me how to use a sliderule at the age of 7 so I could create the %'s since calculaters didn't exist at the time. I had 4 brothers and if we weren't playing baseball we were playing that game and using real baseball cards for the lineups. Needless to say our Willie May's, Hank Aaron's, and yes Bob even Frank Robinson cards become worthless with use but I think we had more fun with them then the kids who put them in plastic collecting sheets.

77.  Angels' first two batters:

Single
RBI Double, out trying to advance to third

78.  Back to important things, if you ever get a copy of the New Baseball Reader, edited by Charles Einstein, which is similar to the Fireside books mentioned in 70, check out a chapter from the Ultimate Baseball Association, (you can find the novel by the same name), great read and again illustrates how well even a made up game, just reads so well and can have as much drama as one of the following chapters that has the Koufax perfect game transcript of Vin Scully's radio broadcast.

79.  77- Vlad homer, radio guys says Figgy was out per the replay.

80.  Vladimir Guerrero has now gotten a hit in all 41 games he has played against Texas.

He has homered in the first inning. The Angels are leading 2-0.

81.  77 - I saw this at least twice today where Scioscia said the only thing they are doing well is running the bases...I guess Orlando didn't see that comment.

82.  Third batter: Guerrero HR

83.  Angel guys making a big deal about 6 players making his major league debut this season, let's see off the top of the noggin, Saito, Loney, Martin, Ethier make 4 for the Dodgers, am I missing anyone.

84.  I think the Rangers are learning why Phillies fans were so frustrated with Vicente Padilla, the Nicaraguan Ismael Valdez.

85.  74

Wow Bob, this is the first time I ever see you make a typo. what's the world coming too!

86.  Gary Matthews Jr. has 17 doubles?

Who'd he play for, Bob? Granada Hills High? I know I covered some of his games.

87.  85
I make lots of typos. I also leave out words frequently.

86
The Baseball Cube lists Gary Matthews Jr. as going to Granada Hills. His father went to San Fernando.

88.  87

The short time I've been here I've never seen a typo from you.

89.  74 Gomes is already 0-for-3. Expect the Swedish doomsday weapon any minute now. 73 gave his advice an hour too late.

90.  Steve Trachsel can go ahead and retire now.

91.  If anyone's watching the NYY-Boston game, did that really happen the way it looks on the Game Tracker? (Arod reaches on 3rd strike passed ball. Takes second on passed ball. Third on FC. Scores on passed ball.)

92.  Kendry Fever has begun.

93.  rex hudler just called a Kendry Morales homerun ... and was right

94.  Add to 91 - Isn't that what they brought Mirabelli back for?

95.  "what's the world coming too [sic] ! [sic]

Thrice ironic! Well played!

96.  Kendry Morales has a single and a double in his first two major league ABs. The League of Small Samples declares that the Angels do have rookies that can play well.

97.  92 Kendritis?

98.  93

Huddy is a psycic (sp?)

99.  Time for Nats notes.

Just now, tied in the top of the seventh, Jose Vidro led off with a double and Robinson promptly had (best hitter on the team but recently struggling) Nick Johnson bunt him over to third so that (struggling all year, first night back off the DL) Jose Guillen and (promising but erratic rookie) Ryan Zimmerman could bring him home. It worked, in the sense that Guillen sac flied and the run scored. But of course that's all they got; we'll see if it holds. Last night, the Astros scored 10 off the Nationals.

2. Oh, as I'm typing OF PH Daryle Ward and Alfonso Soriano b2b homers to extend the lead to 4-1.

3. Last night, Gigantor pitched an ining and a bit then came off the field and threw up due to food poisoning. Bowden quoted in the paper the next day as saying the play on the field made him want to vomit. If there's a single thing that bugs me the most about that guy, it's the way he incessantly rips his own players to the press.

4. Smallest Nationals crowd ever at RFK last night (18,302 plus me).

100.  Time for Nats notes.

Just now, tied in the top of the seventh, Jose Vidro led off with a double and Robinson promptly had (best hitter on the team but recently struggling) Nick Johnson bunt him over to third so that (struggling all year, first night back off the DL) Jose Guillen and (promising but erratic rookie) Ryan Zimmerman could bring him home. It worked, in the sense that Guillen sac flied and the run scored. But of course that's all they got; we'll see if it holds. Last night, the Astros scored 10 off the Nationals.

2. Oh, as I'm typing OF PH Daryle Ward and Alfonso Soriano b2b homers to extend the lead to 4-1.

3. Last night, Gigantor pitched an ining and a bit then came off the field and threw up due to food poisoning. Bowden quoted in the paper the next day as saying the play on the field made him want to vomit. If there's a single thing that bugs me the most about that guy, it's the way he incessantly rips his own players to the press.

4. Smallest Nationals crowd ever at RFK last night (18,302 plus me).

 

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