The Rightly Rated Farm System Begins to Deliver

Tonight's Game

* * *

It's like being called a bad parent when you weren't even pregnant yet.

One of the phonier damnations of the Dodger farm system accuses the team of failing to produce a bonafide star from the minor leagues, despite the Dodger system being highly rated for years. The flaw in the argument is that until recently, these so-called high rankings for the Dodger farm system did not exist.

Both Baseball Weekly and Baseball America had low rankings for the Dodger system as this decade began. As recently as 2002, the Dodgers were considered incompetent at the draft, with their No. 1 pick, two-way player James Loney, an apparent anachronism - a tools player from high school drafted ahead of proven, specialized college talent. That the dim Dodgers were putting Loney at first base instead of on the mound befuddled analysts even further.

The Dodger farm system did not begin to regain favor in the public eye until later that summer when Loney, who was only 18, surprised everyone by justifying the Dodgers' faith in him with a spectacular season at the plate in Rookie ball. Then in 2003, the Dodgers delivered what perhaps became their highest-rated draft in many years, highlighted by pitchers Chad Billingsley and Chuck Tiffany. Still, skepticism remained over the Dodgers' reliance on high school talent, so that even just two years ago, not everyone was sold on the team's minor league roster.

It really wasn't until 2004, when Joel Guzman came to life, that perception of the Dodger farm system began to soar. Again, this makes sense, because the infusion of talent in the farm system is both recent and young. Willy Aybar signed a huge bonus in 2000, but was only 17 at the time. Guzman was signed from the Dominican Republic in 2001 - but he was only 16 at the time.

So those who have taken the failure for the Dodger farm system to produce a star in 2005 as a sign that it has been overrated have lost perspective on time. The struggles of most of the 2005 rookies accurately reflect the state of the Dodger minor league talent prior to 2002. With the possible exception of Chin-Feng Chen, none of the rookie hitters for the major league Dodgers this season ever really impressed scouts after they were drafted. Other than Jonathan Broxton (still only 21), Hong-Chih Kuo (in between injuries) and the strange case of Edwin Jackson, the same holds true for the 2005 rookie pitchers. Jason Repko, a 1999 first-round draft choice, epitomized the until-recently feeling about the Dodger minor leaguers. He was considered, like most Dodger draft choices, a flop. The fact that he has barely scratched out a major-league OPS above .600 in 2005 is no disappointment - it's as much or more than anyone thought he would do until 2004.

With Aybar and Dioner Navarro (a minor leaguer acquired by trade from the Yankees via Arizona last offseason) emerging in the past two months, the first set of better-regarded position players in years have taken superb first steps. At the same time, Aybar and Navarro are not even the hottest prospects in the Dodger system at their positions. If the 22-year-old Aybar and the 21-year-old Navarro, who have combined for an on-base percentage of nearly .400 in about 250 plate appearances, can continue to develop the talent they have shown, imagine what the future might hold for the Andy LaRoches and Russ Martins, for Guzman, and so on. The fact that these futures might not arrive until 2007 is really, truly beside the point.

It might turn out that Aybar and Navarro will have sophomore slumps and put their careers in perception limbo like Jackson. It might turn out that we never know who's going to be great until they get to Los Angeles.

So let me just leave things where I began. The Dodger farm system has not promised more than it has delivered. It has not been highly rated for years. The rise of the farm system, both in perception and reality, is a recent development, and the prospects are arriving right on time.

Comments

[Bob Timmermann]

1.  Sounds like someone's been arguing with Rob McMillin and Matt Welch.

[Jon Weisman]

2.  I know it might sound that way, but this isn't a response to them.

[Bob Timmermann]

3.  I think that since the Dodgers have had such a long dry spell with the minors, people are naturally suspicious.

But it wasn't that long ago when the Dodgers had a long run of ROYs: Karros, Piazza, Mondesi, Nomo, and Hollandsworth.

[Warren]

4.  Google Alerts sent this to me earlier today. It's a pretty good read for those who are pro-Tracy.

http://sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/n/a/2005/09/26/sports/s145131D43.DTL

[King of the Hobos]

5.  Phoenix Desert Dogs start playing next Tuesday (This years Dodgers AFL team). Hopefully the Dodgers prospects impress, and more importantly, don't get injured. Games will be on Gameday, which is almost more tempting than watching the playoffs =)

Vegas will have Gameday next year as well, or at least should. They hoped to get Gameday to AAA teams, but I haven't heard if it's official

[Jon Weisman]

6.  4 My question - and this is sincere, not sarcastic - is this. If everything else were the same except Jim Tracy were not the manager of this team, how many games would the Dodgers have won this season?

[Eric Enders]

7.  3
We also had a milder run of guys who became successful for other teams, like Ted Lilly, Henry Rodriguez, John Wetteland, and Paul Konerko.

[Adam M]

8.  8 - would "guys who became successful for other teams" include Pedro "Tommy Said I Was Too Short" Martinez?

[Adam M]

9.  6 - One thing I know is that another manager might have pulled the plug on Izturis as the leadoff man much earlier. He showed far less reluctance to move Shawn Green around in the lineup, and it's arguable Tracy's moving Green around so much messed with Green psychologically and contributed to Green's departure. One will notice this argument rarely gets raised by local media these days.

[King of the Hobos]

10.  4 Even for the anti-Tracy, that wasn't a bad article, quote wise anyways

"We had a great group of guys at the start and at the finish," Werth said. "There's definitely a difference in atmosphere from last year to this. I don't really think we have a bad clubhouse, I just think some things have happened over the course of the season — injuries, close losses, things like that."

I guess that's good news, as is...

Kent, who signed a two-year contract last winter, has always been known as a loner, but Werth defended him, saying the public perception concerning the All-Star second baseman "is not close," and that he loved having Kent as a teammate.

Has Werth become the new PR guy?

And to take Tracy out of context

"I think that's something you talk about when the season's over," he said. "That's the way I've done it for four years. I'm not changing."

Putting the quote back into context, is this just Tracy's ambiguous style, or is there a hidden message? Maybe it's the optimism over analyzing the quote, but there seems to be some hostility in the quote

[Steve]

11.  Don Adams died just before Jim Bowden could sign him to a three-year deal to play shortstop

[Jon Weisman]

12.  9 - "it's arguable Tracy's moving Green around so much messed with Green psychologically and contributed to Green's departure. One will notice this argument rarely gets raised by local media these days."

It's not a good argument to raise.

Green's slump preceded Tracy moving him around. In fact, the world was almost as impatient for Tracy to move Green out of the cleanup spot as they were for Tracy to move Izturis out of the leadoff spot. More impatient about Green, if you consider that Izturis batted leadoff in 2004.

Tracy gave Green as much rope as any manager would dare give someone who was producing as poorly as Green in the cleanup spot.

Green's departure came for one reason - he was not playing like a $16 million player. It wasn't Tracy's fault.

It is true that Tracy gave Izturis more patience in his batting slot.

[Steve]

13.  Green hit cleanup for twenty seven years.

[Bob Timmermann]

14.  Your Penultimate Random Dodger Game Callback

September 26, 1946

The Dodgers might have won the battle this day at Ebbets Field, defeating the Philadelphia Phillies 8-2, but they also might have lost the war as star left fielder Pete Reiser broke his left leg. The win moved the Dodgers to within one half game of the first place Cardinals at 95-57.

Reiser's injury happened in the first inning. Second baseman Eddie Stanky led off with a walk. Third baseman Augie Galan flied out and Reiser forced Stanky at second. Reiser, who led the NL in 1946 in stolen bases, took a big lead and Philadelphia pitcher Charley Schanz threw back to first. Reiser slid back into first feet first and jammed his leg against the bag and snapped his left fibula.

Reiser was carried off the field and taken to the hospital. Dick Whitman ran for Reiser and took second on a passed ball by Philadelphia catcher Rollie Hemsley. Right fielder Dixie Walker singled home Whitman with the first run of the game.

The Dodgers scored four times in the fourth. First baseman Eddie Stevens led off with a double. Center fielder Carl Furillo tried to sacrifice, but beat the bunt out for a hit. Shortstop Pee Wee Reese beat out an infield single to short to score Stevens. Catcher Bruce Edwards laid down a bunt and he beat it out also. Pitcher Kirby Higbe popped out. Stanky then bounced a ball into right field to score Furillo. Oscar Judd came into relieve for Philadelphia and walked Galan to force in a run. Joe Medwick, a midseason pickup in his second tour of duty in Brooklyn, drove in the final run with a groundout.

In the sixth inning, Galan singled and Medwick followed with his second home run of the season. The Dodgers added their final run in the seventh on a squeeze bunt from Edwards to score Furillo.

Meanwhile, Higbe went the distance to pick up his 17th win of the season. He gave up seven hits and struck out six.

The Dodgers were off on September 27, but they moved into a tie for first when the Cardinals lost at home to the Cubs, 7-2. On September 28, both teams won with the Dodgers beating the Braves and the Cardinals beating the Cubs. But on the last day of the regular season, both teams lost. Mort Cooper of the Braves shut out the Dodgers 4-0 while the Cubs, behind Johnny Schmitz, beat the Cardinals 8-3.

So for the first time since its founding in 1876, the National League season ended in a tie and a best of three playoff was scheduled. The Dodgers won the coin flip and opted to start the playoff in St. Louis and play the last two games, if necessary, in Brooklyn.

Just over 26,000 came to Sportsman's Park to see the first playoff game. Cardinal lefty Howie Pollet, battling an injury to his side, went the distance as St. Louis won 4-2. Joe Garagiola drove in the insurance run for the Cardinals in the seventh. Ralph Branca took the loss.

After a day off, the teams returned to Brooklyn. Joe Hatten got the call to save the Dodgers season, but the Cardinals battered him and a succession of five relievers for eight runs, three of them in the ninth. Murray Dickson got the win and Harry Brecheen came in to relieve in the ninth and struck out two with the bases loaded to send the Cardinals to the World Series, where they would defeat the Boston Red Sox in seven games.

Reiser's loss was something the Dodgers were used to as other injuries had limited him to just 122 games in 1946. Stanky had the highest OBP on the team at .436. He walked 137 times although he hit no home runs. Reiser led the team with 11 homers. The team hit just 55 for the season. Walker led the team in batting at .319 and drove in 116 runs with just nine home runs. The Dodgers did score 701 runs, second most in the league.

The pitching staff was headed up by Higbe who was 17-8 with a 3.03 ERA. Hatten was 14-11 with 2.84 ERA. The staff ERA was 3.05, which was also second best in the NL.

In a sense though, the Dodgers lost the battle in 1946 to the Cardinals (who had won four of the last five NL pennants), but they were going to win the war. Jackie Robinson had a tremendous year playing in the minor leagues in Montreal. Branch Rickey was going to make some changes. And from 1947 through 1966, the Dodgers would win ten pennants and four World Series, while the Cardinals would win just once.

Thanks to the New York Times, Baseball-Reference, and Retrosheet.

[D4P]

15.  12
Even if Green was "playing like a $16 million player," there's a good chance he would have been traded.

[Jon Weisman]

16.  15 - I doubt it. They would have kept him and probably not signed Drew.

[D4P]

17.  16
But the $6 million savings from Green was instrumental in signing Lowe, right? At least, that's what we were told.

[natepurcell]

18.  can someone direct me to the article where welch bashes the dodger farm system on primer?

[Jon Weisman]

19.  17 - not sure Lowe is relevant to this discussion of Green. If Green were a 1.000 OPS guy and expected to remain so for another year, DePo would not have traded him unless another team absolutely overwhelmed him with an offer. Lowe would have been a secondary consideration.

Green was traded because in DePo's mind, he was overvalued.

[Warren]

20.  6 "My question - and this is sincere, not sarcastic - is this. If everything else were the same except Jim Tracy were not the manager of this team, how many games would the Dodgers have won this season?"

Probably a similar number in all honesty.

Another manager might have played Choi and Perez a little more, had less patience for Izturis in the leadoff spot, punted on Phillips earlier, and stuck with Robles less. But in my opinion those are all relatively minor differences. A game here or there.

How many wins did Tracy squeeze out of last year's team that another manager might not have?

I'm not pro or anti Jim Tracy at this point. I think after last year he deserves a shot with a healthy roster next year before we reach any conclusions. That being said I wouldn't be heart broken if he decided to go elsewhere.

I read your column a few weeks back about not calling for Tracy to get the axe unless you are prepared to name a replacement that would do better. If we stay on that train of thought who is there? I can't think of anyone this side of Bobby Cox and Tony La Russa who might have got a few more wins out of this club. And I think that even with those two it's still at sub-.500 team.

[Adam M]

21.  12 - I think we're actually making similar points here. As manager, Tracy had to move Green down in the lineup, but the moves (both up and down) definitely seemed to mess with Green's head and make the situation worse--and yet the local media peanut gallery seems to have forgotten this.

On the other hand, Tracy should have dropped Izturis a lot earlier this. Cesar Izturis 2005 was clearly a #7/#8 hitter, not a leadoff guy.

[GoBears]

22.  19 Right. And if Green were still here, Drew wouldn't be, and Drew's money could have gone to Lowe. And Green would have had his hand broken on an HBP, and the media would screaming that he should have been traded to save money.

[Icaros]

23.  With Green and Lowe, no Drew: $24 million.

With Drew and Lowe, plus $10 million to trade Green: $29 million.

[Jon Weisman]

24.  Green's EQAs since 2000

2000 - .289
2001 - .323
2002 - .321
2003 - .285
2004 - .280
2005 - .286

Green has not been significantly better this year than he was last year - more significantly, he has remained far from his 2001-2002 level.

Green is better than the healthy Dodger outfielders but worse than the injured Dodger outfielders (both Drew and Bradley).

First base? Choi is at .260, Saenz is at .285. Green is a little better than the combo. Not much, though.

[D4P]

25.  19
I bring up Lowe because in most of the discussions I've had about the Green trade, the Lowe signing has been treated as a byproduct of the Green trade, and folks have argued that the Green trade made the Lowe signing possible. They've essentially argued that, in exchange for Green, the Dodgers got not only the 4 minor leaguers from AZ, but were also thus able to sign Lowe.

I never really bought that argument because I didn't see why the Dodgers couldn't have signed Lowed anyway, even without the $6 million savings from the Green trade.

[Adam M]

26.  20 - Pythagoras might have something to say about this, but if you look at the Pythagorean standings right now, they'd tell you Ozzie Guillen and Bob Melvin were the best managers in baseball and Willie Randolph is the worst (Tracy is, as might be expected, squarely in the middle with a -1 rating). I have a hard time buying what Pythagoras is selling right now.

[Icaros]

27.  I never really bought that argument because I didn't see why the Dodgers couldn't have signed Lowed anyway, even without the $6 million savings from the Green trade.

They could have, but then probably couldn't have signed Drew.

[DougS]

28.  21 I never got that impression. From what I've read about Green's shoulder surgery (especially Will Carroll's article), I think what was going on with his labrum was more important than what was going on in his head.

[GoBears]

29.  21 This sort of stuff always baffles me. Why would moving around in the lineup matter? It might hurt a player's pride a bit to know that the idea is to get him fewer ABs, but why don't we believe that every hitter tries to do well every time up? I can see that maybe a free-swinger would be frustrated batting behind a base-stealing threat, where he's asked to take pitches or some such. But if we know that batting order doesn't matter to team success (the same 8 players will score roughly the same number of runs no matter what order they're in), then why should place in said order affect a player's success?

I see, e.g., that Choi was much better batting 2nd, but to me that's random variation that would not survive bigger sample sizes.

I think one of the drawbacks of baseball's laconic pace is that we have too much time to think about climbing inside players' heads, and assessing motivation, AND trying to explain everything causally. One of the great advances of sabermetrics is that we have much better causal theories than before. But another, perhaps even greater, advance is to show just how much luck (random variation) there is in baseball, and that while the game has become more and more explainable (and thus predictable) in the long run, it's still utterly unpredictable game to game and pitch to pitch.

[Jon Weisman]

30.  Hmm ... wondering about my communication skills.

21 - "the moves (both up and down) definitely seemed to mess with Green's head and make the situation worse--and yet the local media peanut gallery seems to have forgotten this. "

No, I completely disagree with this. Green only seemed to improve once he dropped down below Beltre. If you check his splits from 2004, the numbers back it up.

Batting fourth: .790 OPS
Batting fifth: .863 OPS
Batting sixth: .826 OPS

20 - "I read your column a few weeks back about not calling for Tracy to get the axe unless you are prepared to name a replacement that would do better. "

That's not what I said. What I said was that if you nominate a Tracy replacement, have a good reason for it. Don't pick a name just because it sounds nice.

[Icaros]

31.  If you figure in Dreifort's full salary, since no one knows yet what insurance discount came about, Drew, Green, and Lowe on the team would have put the Dodgers above the $100 million threshold.

[Jon Weisman]

32.  25 - That may be the case. If so, it would only support the notion that Green was traded because DePo found him overvalued. If Green were worth keeping, DePo would have kept him.

As it was, if Drew and Bradley had not been hurt (predictably or not), DePo would have been completely vindicated in trading Green. As it is, I think DePo might still be vindicated.

[Marty]

33.  Dreifort. If there had been a Dreifort bobble-head it would have blown it's neck out.

[D4P]

34.  32
I agree that Depo thought Green was overvalued, but I still think he might have been traded even if that wasn't the case. I'm not convinced Depo was comfortable with a $16 million salary, even had the player been playing well enough to earn it (which Green clearly wasn't). I don't think Depo wants to build a team around one or two very highly paid players; I think he'd rather spread the talent (and money) around more evenly.

[Steve]

35.  29 should be primary text, and a test given on it at the end of the year.

[Jon Weisman]

36.  34 - Certainly possible, but I see no evidence that DePo would not pay $16 million to a real superstar, especially for just one season, as it would have been with Green.

I think it's just as easy to assume that DePo wants the good $316,000 players so that he can spend big money on a superstar if he wants to. That way, even with a couple of megamillionaires on the team, the team wouldn't be completely dependent on them.

[Icaros]

37.  34 Since the $16 million was only for one more year, it probably wouldn't have bothered DePodesta as much if Green had been putting up Manny Ramirez numbers.

He probably wouldn't have resigned him at that price, though. Imagine what we could have gotten in trade for Green if he had been any good.

[D4P]

38.  36,37
Well, it should be interesting to see what happens this offseason. I put the probability of maintaining payroll at $100 million (and signing "megamillionaires") at less than 0.5, but ya never know. I'm looking forward to seeing what Depo has in store, particularly since I'm not attached to any of the players on the current squad (with the exception of HSC).

[Bob Timmermann]

39.  Final from Boston

Blue Jays-Red Sox

POSTPONED

[natepurcell]

40.  greens salary was only for one more year. it wasnt as if it was a long term albatross on the team.

[das411]

41.  Re: the search for a new field manager, did anyone else see this in the Philadelphia Inquirer this weekend?

>>
The Indians might have the AL manager of the year in 37-year-old Eric Wedge, who finished his playing career a few years ago as a backup catcher for the Phillies' triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre club. The Indians have another rising young managerial star in their system in Torey Lovullo. He, too, spent time in the Phillies system, playing at Scranton in 1999 and finishing the season in the majors. Lovullo managed Akron to the Eastern League title last week and could move up to triple-A Buffalo next year...
<<

Just another name to throw out there. Now quick! Somebody ask Timmerman who has the longest hitting streak of the century going into tonight. Gotta make sure he is now a safe distance away from Rex Hudler's stash...

[D4P]

42.  OT: Arrested Development in less than 10 minutes.

[natepurcell]

43.  Well, it should be interesting to see what happens this offseason. I put the probability of maintaining payroll at $100 million (and signing "megamillionaires") at less than 0.5, but ya never know

well of course, considering there are not any superstar players available in FA this offseason

[Bob Timmermann]

44.  2-0 White Sox over Detroit in the 3rd.

It's raining in New York and Philly as well.

[D4P]

45.  43
That has a lot to do with it, although (in theory) he could trade for megamillionaires as well.

[Adam M]

46.  30 - My communication skills probably need the work, especially since you're the one who gets paid to communicate! I should have said that I was only referring the psychological situation with Green. From a baseball standpoint, moving him was unarguably the right thing to do, but it did seem to sour Green and may have increased his willingness to leave the Dodgers. Which lends grist, deserved or not, to the "character" and "class" arguments, whose merit I dispute. Amazing how a guy can play with a bum shoulder for half a year, supposedly in the interests in the team, and yet what really hurts the man most is getting dropped in the batting order.

[Bob Timmermann]

47.  Longest hitting streak of the 21st Century would be Luis Castillo, 35 games in 2002.

[Icaros]

48.  38 Personally, I'm hoping that payroll doesn't get to $100 million next season. Pretty much all of the available free agents are lousy, and I'd hate to sign mediocrity for the sake of appealing to narrow-minded fans and analysts who think that a team that isn't wasting money is a team that isn't trying to win.

If the Dodgers get healthy next season (Drew), play better players (Choi, no Phillips) and see continued growth from youngsters like Navarro and Aybar, I think they'll be contenders.

It'd be nice to pick up more starting pitching, but I don't want Burnett, Washburn, Millwood, or Weaver, and they're the best on the market. Maybe some creative trading would work out, but I'd stay away from most of the free-agent market this offseason.

[blue22]

49.  48 - I think its likely that the payroll goes down next year, barring some major trade (Bobby Abreu?, Adam Dunn?).

I also don't necessarily think that's a bad thing, for the reasons you stated.

[das411]

50.  47 -Ouch! Then where did I see that Rollins has the longest since Vlad Guerrero in 1999?

And does anyone know why McKeon is benching Miguel Cabrera? Sounds like the Marlins are counting themselves out of it already.

[Icaros]

51.  Certainly I should have added Gagne to players who need to be healthy next season, and I'd add Broxton and Kuo to the list of developing young players.

[Steve]

52.  I'd sign Millwood depending on the price.

[Bob Timmermann]

53.  I should have said it's raining in Baltimore, where New York is playing. It could be raining in New York though. But not as many people would care since both the Yankees and Mets are on the road.

[Bob Timmermann]

54.  Guerrero had a 31-game streak in 1999.

Maybe people just don't like Luis Castillo.

[Icaros]

55.  52 He's had such a good year ERA-wise, I'm afraid he'll be getting Lowe money. I'd take him on this year's price no question.

[bigcpa]

56.  48 How can you lump Burnett and Millwood with Washburn and Weaver? Both would be a nice upgrade on Weaver. It's not my money.

[Bob Timmermann]

57.  Brandon Inge has hit a 2-run homer to tie it up in Detroit against the Pale Hose 2-2.

[bigcpa]

58.  Burnett has given up 35 homers... in his last 556 innings.

[Adam M]

59.  I personally wouldn't want to spend $16 on Shawn Green 2005, just to have the warm fuzzies of paying him for the length of his contract.

48 - That's an interesting question. If we look at Jon's recent projection of needed HR totals for various lineup slots, could a healthy Dodger team as currently constituted be reasonably expected to hit those? My gut says no, but my gut lacks lateral thinking skills. Working on a strictly back of the envelope basis:

1 - 5 HR Perez
2 - 15 HR Choi (I know, I know)
3 - 30 HR Drew (fingers & toes crossed)
4 - 30 HR Bradley
5 - 25 HR Kent
6 - 20 HR Cruz (?)/Werth
7 - 15 HR Navarro/Phillips (? gack)
8 - 5 HR Robles
PH - 5 HR Ledee (?), Repko, etc.

Out of those, #3-4-5 seems like the biggest gambles, which is not reassuring. Then again, it seems reasonable to expect them to come close, and also to get more than 5 HR from the #1 and #8 slots.

[Icaros]

60.  56 I don't want to go anywhere near Burnett's injury history, and Millwood has been pretty inconsistent throughout his career.

[Bob Timmermann]

61.  Players on the Dodgers who have hit more home runs this year than Brandon Inge:
Jeff Kent
Jose Cruz
Hee-Seop Choi
J.D. Drew
Olmedo Saenz

Padres who have hit more home runs than Brandon Inge:
Ryan Klesko
Joe Randa
Brian Giles
Khalil Greene

[Nagman]

62.  Caught part of what I think is called "The Big Show" on 710 with Mason and Ireland, and heard a humorous exchange.

One of them says something like "I just want to say to all the Oakland fans, Moneyball fails. In fact it fails AGAIN, just like it's failed every season.", at which point the other guy says, "Well, umm, you can't say that its Moneyball that's failing, they do what they do with half the payroll of the Angels."

[Icaros]

63.  59 Next year could be a lot better, or as bad as this year, but the only way the Dodgers can revamp the team immediately is if they trade the farm. I'd rather wait until the farm is ready to play for LA.

[Steve]

64.  Burnett carries the stench of Dreifort-ism.

[Bob Timmermann]

65.  62
I'm betting that the logical person in that conversation was Mason and the illogical one was Ireland.

[bigcpa]

66.  Did you know?

Dodger 3b's this year out OPS'd the Cardinals .723 to .713.

[Bob Timmermann]

67.  The White Sox are back ahead 3-2.

I noticed yesterday that the White Sox are last in the majors in LOB. I think the total was 972, which is a very small number and may break the franchise low for a full season which was a little over 1000.

I've also noticed that the White Sox are 26th in the majors in OBP and 5th in homers.

The record low in the majors for a full season is by the 1957 A's who were last in the AL in OBP and first in home runs.

[Adam M]

68.  62 - Just like it failed for the Red Sox last year!

[HomeDePo]

69.  59 - at this point you have to consider aybar the opening day starter or atleast somebody who really pushes antonio perez during spring training.

[Adam M]

70.  69 - Thanks! Nothing against Robles, but Aybar/Perez sounds much better to me.

Note to self: buy a bigger enevelope...

[Bob Timmermann]

71.  The Dodgers have left 1096 runners on base this year, which is around 7.7/game.

[natepurcell]

72.  prospect news:

dodgers had 2 prospects in the top 20 list of the SAL.

#1- elbert
#7- dewitt

shame that blake johnson and denker did not make it. travesty i tell you! travesty.

[Adam M]

73.  71 - But how do they compare on the Olneys?

[natepurcell]

74.  to add.

i am surprised that elbert is the number 1 overall prospect in the sally league. i guess we have to keep a rotation spot open for him in 2009 or so.

[Bob Timmermann]

75.  The Olneys were retired last year by ESPN.com and Elias. They've gone the way of the GWRBI.

I believe the only Olney champ ever officially crowned was Adam Everett.

Who actually does stuff like hit home runs now.

[clopez]

76.  6
About 60 comments too late, but...
I think Tracy "single-handedly" cost this team about 10 games. That still leaves the club with a poor record, but one that is at least excusable [perhaps playoff bound too, incidentally] considering the injuries.

The point that bears consideration is that Tracy killed morale to such a degree that we're left wondering how many games he really cost the team. The lost rubber match against the Cards in L.A., for example, no doubt had a depressing effect on the team. A win would have had them 3 back of the Pads on Aug 1st with the satisfaction of having won a series against a formidable foe who has owned them of late. Instead they never saw better than 4 back.

After games like this players must know the script is already written. I don't mean to digress with the obvious here [Tracy is bad blah blah blah], I'm just stating/probing how much of an intangible, non-empirical impact managerial ineptitude can have.

[dzzrtRatt]

77.  Going back aways to 3, that run of ROY's in the 90s led to bad things like arrogance and complacency on the part of Dodger management. There was much less than meets the eye to it. Piazza was a star, and Mondesi could have been, although I'm sure his "makeup" problems were apparent to the organization before it was apparent to the rest of us. Nomo was a ROY in name only; he had already established himself in Japan. Eric Karros is the single most overrated player in Dodger history. By Hollandsworth, you couldn't even say "Dodger Rookie of the Year" with a straight face.

But Fred Claire bragged about this accomplishment til the cows came home, hoping no one would notice the team had stopped winning, needed to import expensive problems like Strawberry, and was generally fraying and losing it.

[Bob Timmermann]

78.  INGE INGE INGE INGE

Brandon goes deep again and it's 3-3 in Detroit.

[dzzrtRatt]

79.  76 Morale can't be used against Tracy. He apparently is well-liked by the players.

I think suggesting he's cost us 10 games--i.e. the division championship--is a huge huge stretch. Also, it's not a fair analysis to put all the focus on the debit side of the ledger. Maybe JT has cost us 5 games thru making obviously (not in retrospect) bad decisions. But that's balanced out by, say 2 or 3 games where his managing contributed to a win.

[Steve]

80.  The whole problem is building the "morale" of players like Jason Repko, who can't actually play.

[FirstMohican]

81.  I'm a little late here, but man is it a relief to read material like this after being on the road for the last few hours listening to 570 and 710. Thanks.

[Steve]

82.  The newly chemistry-less (or, if you prefer, playoff-less, since they appear to be the same thing) Florida Marlins can not stop Cristian Guzman, they can only hope to contain him.

[FirstMohican]

83.  79 - I always got the impression that the players liked Tracy too, based on post-game comments. Though, a friend of mine who talked to a Dodger half-way through the season definitely didn't get that impression. While that's just one Dodger, that fact makes it harder to say that the players generally like Jim Tracy.

[LetsGoDodgers]

84.  I don't have a manager in mind, but I'd rather see a new manager for the Dodgers next year; someone who agrees with DePo's philosophies and will strategize accordingly. Call it Smallball, call it Moneyball, call it whatever you like, just get the GM and the manager on the same page!!!

Then again, all the injuries pretty much guarantee a DePo/Tracy tandem in 2006. Yuck.

[FirstMohican]

85.  82 - I'm sure Lo Duca is turning the teams collective frown upside-down as we speak...

[GoBears]

86.  66 Dodger 3b's this year out OPS'd the Cardinals .723 to .713.

And credit for that goes to...Hee Seop Choi, for ending Rolen's season early.

[das411]

87.  86 - Didn't the Great Wall of Korea do something similar to Mark Prior a couple of years ago?

Maybe you SHOULD trade him to Tampa Bay; if Delmon Young is going to be their Darryl Strawberry, maybe Hee can be Kevin Mitchell.

[Steve]

88.  85 -- Ken Rosenthal did not indicate so. But since August 16th, if I've counted right, LoDuca is 15 for 87, so it is just more polite to talk about "chemistry"

[Blue Thrue and Thrue]

89.  62 I have a friend who's an A's fan, and he was spouting the same "wisdom" about Moneyball not working, especially in the playoffs. I pointed out that having one of the lowest payrolls in the game is the failed approach, not Moneyball. As Boston proved so well.

[coachjpark]

90.  Is Robles our #3 hitter of the future??? Something about that depresses me....

[sanchez101]

91.  77. I always the thought the Dodger Farm system was productive in the early 90's. Apart from the ROY's (Piazza, Karros, Nomo, Mondesi, Hollandsworth), Jose Offerman Pedro Martinez along with Pedro Astacio, Ismael Valdez. Also, useable players such as Jose Vizcaino and Tom Goodwin came up at the time. Given that not every one is going to be a Piazza-Pedro level star, I would think that the farm system from 1990-1994 produced more than its share of baseball talent.

[DaveP]

92.  my checklist for success regarding tonight's game:

1. Edwin goes at least 5 innings and no more than 3 earned runs
2. Aybar starts at 3B and is on base at least once
3. Navarro has a solid game behind the plate and collects at least one hit
4. Kuo pitches a scoreless inning (none of this LOOGY stuff for Kuo) and his elbow is still attached upon returning to the dugout
5. Choi with an extra base hit

Four out of Five and I'll consider it a good night. Notice there is no mention of the score. I don't care about the W/L at this point.

[clopez]

93.  79
Jim Tracy is definitely well-liked by most of his players (as has been documented ad nauseam), but I doubt his moves have garnered a lot of trust. I'd bet a lot of players think his routine is pretty dicey at this point:
"The bunting has failed us over and over again, but I like that skip is sending Repko out to bunt right now..."
?

Conventional wisdom states that managers cost there squad 4-6 games a year. I say 10 becasue I have witnessed at least seven and have read accounts of other games I missed. I don't think JT belongs in the median of 4-6. No way. And believe me, I've taken into account the games he's won us, or the credit side-- like yesterday, you could argue that by pinch-hitting Phillips he won the game. I've given him his due and still come up with 10.

You're right though, the issue of morale is a very shaky topic, like "chemistry," which I generally prefer to steer clear from. I just think there's something to be said about shaping the mental make-up of a team. In my opinion JT did this to an above average, detrimental degree this year.

[sanchez101]

94.  92. I think that pretty much sums up what i look for when watching the dodgers recently, who gets the win and the loss is pretty irrelevent to me. Its a pretty liberating feeling and can make watching the game more fun, when the team is going to loose anyway

[LetsGoDodgers]

95.  I'd also like to add that I'm not thrilled about this offseason's free agents. Millwood is up-and-down for his career, Burnett is the second coming of Dreifort due to his absurdly high pitch counts, Washburn is highly overrated, and that leaves Weaver.

I'd roll the dice on imports like Paul Byrd (for bottom of the rotation) and Matt Lawton (in the leadoff role for his OBP). If we shoot the moon for a pitcher, it better be a Matt Morris-caliber starter.

[natepurcell]

96.  only thing tonight is for edwin to get his fb velocity up.

if its still sitting at 90-91 im going to be worried/dissapointed.

[Bob Timmermann]

97.  Robles is the #3 hitter tonight

Aybar
Choi
Robles
Kent
Cruz
Navarro
Werth
Repko
Jackson

[Steve]

98.  Cristian Guzman doubles in two more. Florida held to only two "chemistrys" by Hector Carrasco.

[DaveP]

99.  -96 If he's working at 90-91 again, I'd guess he lasts no more than 3 or 4 innings. He'll get shelled.

[GoBears]

100.  76 I too think that a claim that JT cost the team 10 wins is ludicrous. Ludicrous, because how could we ever know? One of the benefits of blaming the manager for making what seems to be the wrong move is that we can assume that the right move, had it been made, would have worked out. But really, even the better player is still more likely to fail than to succeed. Really, Tracy's head-scratchers merely add insult to injury most of the time. The team is not only losing, but looking dumb along the way. Occasionally, they also cost the team the game. But then again, his bonehead subbing of Phillips for Choi yesterday, while dumb a priori, worked out, and, in better times, would be evidence that he has a magic touch with substitutions.

We can use RC/27 or VORP or some such to estimate how many more runs the team would have scored had Choi received 200 more ABs, Phillips 200 fewer, etc., and Pythagoras (channelled by Bill James) would tell us that how many more wins the team would have had (other things equal) but those are merely estimates. Luck might still have burned us. We might not have won many more close games, and might just have made some of the blowout losses into close losses. Look at the ChiSox and Twins. For the last few years, the Twins have been very lucky (outstripping their Pythaogrean W-L record) and the ChiSox very unlucky. This year, it's reversed (or was last time I checked).

And that's leaving aside the question of how many of JT's bonehead moves would have been made by any other manager as well. So the statement about the Tracy Factor being 10 games is ludicrous because it's unknowable. That doesn't mean it's wrong, however.