The Dodger who can have the greatest effect on the 2012 season

  

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He is the key to the Dodgers’ 2012 season, the one player in a position to most affect whether the team is again mediocre, or poised to make a postseason run.

Andre Ethier, a dismayed Dodgers nation turns its eyes to you.

The Dodgers went into the off-season talking about how they would make a run at a big bat. As you just might possibly have noticed, it never arrived.

Now even if you’re doing the massive assuming the Dodgers are for 2012 -– Matt Kemp will approach the same numbers, Juan Rivera will still drive in runs, Juan Uribe can’t possibly be as awful as he was in 2011, Dee Gordon will hold up over the course of the season, James Loney will more closely resemble his second-half self -– that still doesn’t figure to be enough to lift the team into the playoffs.

The one player who has the potential to have a massively better year in 2012 is Ethier.

The extremely talented, emotional, hard-working, inconsistent, prideful, exasperating All-Star right fielder.

After the 2009 season, Ethier was on the verge of superstardom. He hit 31 home runs, had 106 RBI and completed his second consecutive season with a slugging percentage north of .500. He started 2011 like he might make a run at the triple crown. Then came a broken pinkie from which he never seemed to fully recover.

Last year there was an early 30-game hitting streak in an otherwise disappointing season. Finally there was that odd, they’re-making-me-play-hurt rant, followed by denial, followed by season-ending knee surgery.

His final 2011 numbers: .292 batting average, 11 homers, 62 RBI, 67 runs and a career-low .421 slugging percentage.

There is plenty of room for improvement there, and if Ethier can do it, he can provide that big bat that was sorely missing last year. He is the one player who can make a dramatic difference in the Dodgers' lineup.

Which doesn’t mean it will happen, though I suspect it will. Still, prophesying Ethier’s future performance is like trying to predict the next Alec Baldwin remark. Could be really good, could be what the hell?

Now there are a couple of very good reasons to anticipate Ethier will bounce back with a huge season. Presumably he is healthy, his knee surgery was not major and that pinkie certainly should have healed by now. And he is in his contract year. He signed a one-year, $10.95-million deal this winter and can become a free agent for the first time at the end of the coming season.

General Manager Ned Colletti said the Dodgers were interested in signing Ethier to a long-term deal, which so far hasn’t happened. Ethier took notice of Chad Billingsley getting a three-year deal last spring, and that was long before Kemp signed his $160-million deal this off-season.

Ethier may determine he'll be in a better negotiating position after putting in a full, healthy season, whether re-signing with the Dodgers or hitting the open market. Or maybe he would prefer the security of a big contract right now. It’s Ethier, so it’s a guessing game.

Dodgers Manager Don Mattingly said Ethier gave away 100 at-bats last season by letting his emotions get the best of him. That was almost 20% of his season. For a guy who bats in the middle of the order.

Ethier turns 30 in April, so you would like to think he’s maturing enough to stay focused and not allow setbacks to send him gyrating off course. He is an intelligent and, when he wants to be, highly charming (as demonstrated in the following MLB.com video) player. He and Kemp could own this town.

And if the Dodgers are going to contend, he’ll need to.

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The offensive emptiness that is the Dodgers 2012 bench

Look real hard and you can find it. It’s there, just not exactly under the spotlight. Maybe not in hiding, though you could make the argument that the Dodgers will try it.

It is the Dodgers’ bench, such as it. And as it is, it’s wholly unimpressive.

Presenting your 2012 Dodgers in reserve: catcher Matt Treanor, infielders Jerry Hairston Jr. and Adam Kennedy, and outfielders Tony Gwynn Jr. and Jerry Sands.

There’s some versatility and some nice defensive elements, but offensively there just isn’t much there. The power hitter is Sands, he of the 194 career at-bats? The left-handed bats are Gwynn and Kennedy?

This is all as currently scheduled, of course. And these things almost never go as scheduled. Which would explain why the Dodgers started last season with Xavier Paul, Hector Gimenez and Ivan DeJesus Jr. on the roster.

General manager Ned Colletti said he thinks this year’s bench can be superior to last season’s, before quickly asking which Dodgers’ bench he should reference.

"Unfortunately our bench ended up playing," Colletti said. "The bench was really the second bench."

Which is why the 2012 edition is so scary. Chances are, some of them are going to have to play more than expected. And this is what manager Don Mattingly will have to choose from based on last season’s numbers:

Player                         Avg.                OBP                 SLG

Treanor                      .214                .338                .291

Hairston                     .270                .344                .383

Kennedy                     .234                .277                .355

Gwynn                        .256                .308                .353

Sands                         .253                .338                .389

And as a group, it’s not like it’s a bunch of kids approaching their prime. Kennedy is 36, and Treanor will be in March and Hairston in May.

Plus you have to remember the Dodgers’ regular everyday lineup is already going to have its risks. Rookie shortstop Dee Gordon batted .304 last season but in only 224 at-bats, so we’ve yet to see if pitchers adjust to the slight Gordon. And A.J. Ellis is going to be the main catcher, and has a career .262 average with zippo power in 206 career at-bats.

There’s not a strong pinch-hitter in the group, either. Career averages as pinch-hitters: Treanor .200, Hairston .174, Kennedy .223, Gwynn .288, Sands .000 (only four at-bats). There's not really a reserve shortstop.

Last year the Dodgers wanted to start the season with a bench of Dioner Navarro, Jamey Carroll, Aaron Miles, Tony Gwynn Jr., Marcus Thames/Jay Gibbons. Navarro and Thames were busts, and Gibbons couldn’t overcome vision issues. Yet they still might prove a better group.

The Dodgers 25-man roster is basically set. If everyone makes it through spring healthy, there are no position openings.

 ``If it goes the way it’s planned, the team has some flexibility to it but not a whole lot,’’ Colletti said.

On days when Juan Rivera or James Loney don't start, the bench will get a boost but it could use plenty more. It could have used a Coco Crisp, but Colletti denied an interest in the outfielder before he re-signed with the A’s.

``Never had a conversation,’’ Colletti said.

Colletti is operating under budget constraints unworthy of a team playing in the second-largest market in the country, but such are the times when your team is in bankruptcy court.

And such is the bench.

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Photo: Dodger Stadium. Credit: Brian van der Brug/Los Angeles Times.

Presenting your 2012 Dodgers lineup (Updated)

One thing about having an almost entirely set 25-man roster  -- you can start figuring out what the daily lineup is going to look like. Even if it is still December.

The Dodgers’ heavy off-season work, or at least their modest lifting, is all done. Unless you’re still the kind that holds out hope of an unexpected Prince Fielder signing.

But if no significant additions are coming, it’s not hard to visualize the Dodgers’ main daily lineup, at least against right-handers:

Shortstop Dee Gordon (L), second baseman Mark Ellis (R), right fielder Andre Ethier (L), center fielder Matt Kemp (R), left fielder Juan Rivera (R), first baseman James Loney (L), third baseman Juan Uribe (R) and catcher A.J. Ellis (R).

And let the rest of the National League tremble in its wake.

This is not necessarily a terrible lineup, though it’s dependent on a lot of things going right. Probably way too many things, but then the same can pretty much be said for the rest of the National League West.

Gordon hit .304 with 24 stolen bases in his 233 plate appearances of his rookie season. But he had only seven walks, leaving him with a .325 on-base percentage. Still, that’s a fairly small sample size at a young stage in his career. He figures only to get better, and is such lightning on the bases, he has to be given the leadoff spot. Anyway, there’s really no one else in that lineup to bat leadoff.

Mark Ellis split his time last season batting second and seventh, but hit .297 in the two spot, as opposed to .215 hitting seventh.

The Dodgers are gambling that a trio of hitters returns to form next season -- Ethier, Loney and Uribe. Ethier, 29, will be key. Coming off minor knee surgery, he has the most upside. And the Dodgers will need it if they bat him third.

All they want from Kemp is more of the same, which is the same thing as asking for everything. Kemp, who came in second in the N.L. MVP voting, could have a slight drop-off and still be one of the game’s premier hitters.

[Update: In the orginal post I had a brain cramp and wrote Kemp started the season batting third and late in the season was moved to fourth, which is actually reverse from what happened. My my No.1 fan, Benjamin Villarreal Camacho, ever-so kindly pointed out my mistake. Kemp actually hit slightly better in the cleanup spot (.647 vs. .569 slugging), so it remains to be seen which way Manager Don Mattingly goes in 2012.

Batting Rivera hitting behind Kemp was given credit for Kemp’s strong finish, so wherever Kemp bats, Rivera is likely to follow. Kemp hitting third, Rivera fourth and Ethier fifth only happened nine times in 2011.]

Mattingly could bat Uribe sixth instead of Loney, but he seems to like alternating his left-right bats in the lineup.

Uribe is coming off one of the most disappointing seasons in Dodgers history. He has a lot to prove, and at age 33, not much time to prove it. The Dodgers are counting on Loney being the hitter he was the second half, which is understandable but difficult to depend upon. Anything offensively from A.J. Ellis is a bonus.

Against left-handers, Mattingly could choose to sit Loney and play Rivera or Jerry Sands at first. Ethier, too, could get spelled if he doesn’t improve against lefties (.220 last season).

Outside of Gordon and Kemp, it's a lineup devoid of speed. It could have decent power, but after Kemp, that's no lock either. There are plenty of "maybes'' with this group, but that could prove a season's theme.

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Jerry Sands would still be better off playing every day in minors

That would be Jerry Sands, the one Dodgers prospect with power close to being ready to play every day. The question is, how close?

The Dodgers’ current outfield has Matt Kemp in center, Andre Ethier in right, and for the most part Juan Rivera in left. Rivera could split time with Tony Gwynn Jr., Jerry Hairston Jr., and the theory goes, Sands.

Only I’m thinking, despite his strong September, Sands would be best served starting next season as an everyday player back at triple A.

He’s 24 and still needs to play regularly. And even if Manager Don Mattingly goes all lefty-right splits and plays Rivera some at first for James Loney, or Sands or Rivera for Ethier, I doubt he’s going to get the kind of at-bats the still-young hitter needs to continue to develop.

And despite saying otherwise, maybe the Dodgers are thinking the same thing. There is a report at MLB Trade Rumors that the Dodgers and Cubs are talking to Coco Crisp about playing left field.

Crisp, 32, is a  speedy switch-hitting outfielder who put up some very respectable numbers last season for the A’s (.264, 27 doubles, 49 steals, 69 runs). He would no doubt be a solid addition for the Dodgers, but one who would need real playing time.

How seriously the Dodgers are about this is uncertain. Crisp earned $5.75 million last year, so it could be as simple as his agent calling the Dodgers and saying his price has come down, are you interested? Of course, you would think it’d have to come down fairly significantly to pique the bankrupt Dodgers’ interest.

Dodgers sign Tony Gwynn Jr. to two-year, $2-million deal

And it didn’t go down to the absolute wire or anything.

The Dodgers did right Monday, signing outfielder Tony Gwynn Jr. to a two-year, $2-million contract only hours before the deadline to tender him or lose him to free agency.

That’s probably a year more than most might have expected, but General Manager Ned Colletti has been on something of a two-year contract binge this off-season.

Gwynn, 29, will receive $850,000 next season and $1.15 million in 2013. Gwynn told The Times' Dylan Hernandez that the Dodgers approached him Thursday and the deal was completed over the weekend.

"The first offer they made me was a two-year deal,'' Gwynn said. "I hadn’t even thought of that. When they came with a two-year deal, my ears immediately perked up.''

The two-year contract will carry him through his arbitration years. He can become a free agent at the end of this deal.

Gwynn was not tendered a contract by the San Diego Padres after hitting .204 in 2010, enabling him to originally sign with the Dodgers.

"I was a lot more calm with the whole process [this year],'' Gwynn told Hernandez. "I was coming off a much better season. I was comfortable going through the whole process. I knew I was going to have a job somewhere. But I wanted to stay here. I really enjoyed the coaching staff. I enjoyed being with the players.''

Averaging $1 million per year is hardly an unreasonable amount for a reserve outfielder as versatile, and who was used as much last season, as Gwynn.

in his first season with the Dodgers, Gwynn appeared in a career-high 136 games, batting .256 with 37 runs and 22 stolen bases in 312 at-bats.

The Dodgers' starting outfield is set with Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier and Juan Rivera, though Gwynn could still play a reasonable amount of time in left field for Rivera, who also plays first, and as a late-inning defensive replacement.

Colletti has tried to add strong defensive players this season, and Gwynn continues with that trend.

"That suits me really well,'' Gwynn said. "That’s not just a Dodger thing. If you’re able to go out and get some of the bigger hitters, that’s nice. But a lot of times, games are won on defense and pitching. I’ve been on teams where the offense wasn’t very good, but the defense was, and when it came down to one run, it gave us an edge.''

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Photo: Dodgers outfielder Tony Gwynn Jr. slides safely into second base with a steal as Braves second baseman Dan Uggla tries to handle the throw during a game last season at Dodger Stadium. Credit: Allen J. Schaben / Los Angeles Times

Dodgers need to tender Tony Gwynn Jr.

The hours are ticking away and Tony Gwynn Jr. waits.

Can we do away with the suspense? Do the Dodgers really need to play this game of contract chicken with Gwynn? Make the deal, or tender him a contract and go to arbitration. Seems simple enough.

Unless, of course, the Dodgers could be playing another game — how low can you go?

Gwynn is the one Dodger who is uncertain whether the Dodgers will officially tender him a contract prior to Monday’s 9 p.m. deadline. I’ll go out on a thin limb here and say I’m pretty sure Clayton Kershaw gets tendered. Andre Ethier and, yes, James Loney, are going to be offered contracts. Hong-Chin Kuo, sadly, is not expected to receive an offer.

And that leaves Gwynn, who went through this last season with the Padres, who non-tendered him. Which made him available to sign with the Dodgers, which he did at what proved to be a bargain price at $675,000.

Gwynn played more than expected (a career-high 136 games) and better than most anticipated. He was as strong as advertised defensively, a little better than expected offensively and stole 22 bases.

In most ways, he was the ideal extra outfielder. And still would be.

So don’t risk losing him over a comparatively small amount of dough. If the bankrupt Dodgers are really planning on playing Juan Rivera in left most days, they’ll need Gwynn just as much this season as last. And although Jerry Hairston Jr. could play center if — deep breath here — injury were to befall Matt Kemp, Gwynn is the better defensive outfielder.

In a text to Dodgers.com's Ken Gurnick, Gwynn said he was uncertain how it would all play out. Bring him back and end the suspense.

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Photo: Tony Gwynn Jr. gets ready for batting practice last season. Credit: Luis Sinco / Los Angeles Times

Hey, buddy, could you spare an extra starter?

Baseball’s annual winter meetings are this weekend in Dallas, but don't look for the Dodgers to exactly be at the hub of activity.

General Manager Ned Colletti is nearing the end of his budget for the 2012 season and he’s still minus two starters for the rotation.

The Dodgers must be on the every-other-year rotation plan. They went into the 2010 season with only four starters, which proved one Charlie Haeger knuckleball away from total disaster. Last year they actually thought they had an extra starter in Vicente Padilla, who managed to throw almost nine innings before ending his season due to injury, surprising no one. And then Jon Garland went down.

For 2012 they currently have Clayton Kershaw, Chad Billingsley, Ted Lilly and two holes. Rookie Nathan Eovaldi may have to fill one slot, but assuming they are unable to bring back Hiroki Kuroda, that still leaves a huge gap. Unless you’re all excited about the return of Dana Eveland.

Between Frank McCourt dropping another $9.9 million in bankruptcy-related expenses (per The Times' Bill Shaikin) just through October and Colletti dropping $4.5 million on Juan Rivera, it doesn’t appear the Dodgers have enough money left to bring back Kuroda. He wants to pitch one more season.

If the Dodgers go the free-agent route, the second-tier starters available are wholly uninspiring. Mike Petriello looked at them and his best, reluctant recommendation is … Jeff Francis?

There is, of course, the trade market. Yet to acquire a quality arm the Dodgers probably would have to give up an Andre Ethier or James Loney, both one year from free agency, simply creating another hole.

Dodgers.com’s Ken Gurnick previewed the winter meetings by estimating that Colletti had only about $10 million left to work with — and that was before he spent at least $800,000 on utility infielder Adam Kennedy.

Meanwhile, for the rest of baseball, Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder are still out there.

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Daily Dodger in review: Juan Rivera earns return engagement

JUAN RIVERA, 33, outfielder/infielder

Final 2011 stats: .258, 11 homers, 74 RBI, .319 on-base and .382 slugging percentages in 466 at-bats (combined Dodgers/Blue Jays).

Contract status: Signed this month for next season at $4.5 million.

The good: Picked off the scrapheap when designated for assignment by the Blue Jays at the All-Star break, Rivera was a pleasant surprise, particularly early. Of course, he was being compared with the right-handed bat he replaced in left field, Marcus Thames.

What Rivera did best was drive in runs. He had 46 RBI for the Dodgers (sadly just one behind Rod Barajas for fourth on the club) in just 219 at-bats and hit .344 with runners in scoring position. He was given much credit for giving Matt Kemp protection in the batting order and helping to ignite the team’s improved second-half offense.

Played left, right and first base.

Juan Rivera could earn $9 million in two years with Dodgers

Juan Rivera's new contract with the Dodgers is valued at $4,480,769, according to a filing by the players' union. Rivera is guaranteed $4.5 million, as was previously reported.

The deal includes a $4-million salary for next season and a $4-million option for 2013 that the Dodgers can buy out for $500,000. Rivera can earn an additional $500,000 in performance-based incentives in each of the next two seasons.

In both years, his 400th, 425th, 450th, 475th, 500th, 525th and 550th plate appearances would each earn him $50,000. His 575th and 600th plate appearances would each earn him $75,000.

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Photo: Dodgers left fielder Juan Rivera. Credit: Michael Robinson Chavez / Los Angeles Times

Daily Dodger in review: James Loney played into another contract

JAMES LONEY, 26, first base

Final 2011 stats: .288 batting average, 12 home runs, 65 runs batted in, .339 on-base percentage, .416 slugging percentage, 56 runs in 531 at-bats, five errors.

Contract status: Arbitration eligible.

The good: Hit .320 in the second half and finished on a tear, batting .388 the last six weeks. When he started hitting, and after Juan Rivera arrived, the Dodgers started winning.

Continued to be a smooth glove. Was Gold Glove caliber most nights.

The bad: After batting .211 in the second half of 2010, was hitting only .202 on May 2 before starting to discover his stroke. All that power everyone was so hopeful would develop on that 6-foot-2, 202-pound frame has never happened.

His 65 RBIs were his lowest in the last five years.

What’s next: One of the more interesting decisions the Dodgers have to make this off-season, although it’s difficult to imagine they actually go the Russell Martin route with Loney, non-tender him a contract and get nothing back in return.

The only way they let Loney go is if they actually sign Albert Pujols or Prince Fielder. This is where I’m supposed to advise, do not hold your breath.

The take: Loney remains a lightning rod for sabermetric worshipers who despise having a corner infielder without relative power. That view gets additional relevancy because the Dodgers have no real power anywhere else in the infield.

Certainly, Loney’s power numbers are low for an average first baseman. Still, if he can hit anywhere near how he did in the second half, then that’s a valuable player to have in the lineup. And you can’t punish him further because the rest of the infield lacks anything approaching a slugger but make a decision on him individually.

Loney was paid $4.875 million last season and would probably get more than $6 million in arbitration this off-season. The Dodgers have to determine if he’s worth it.

If you assume they’re out of the Fielder-Pujols market, then it’s a bullet they have to bite. If they just let Loney go, they don’t really have much else there. They could try outfielder Jerry Sands, who’s still unproven at the plate, or worse, Rivera.

Loney looked like a guy who figured it out at the end of the season. He also had to see how Matt Kemp refocused in the off-season and came to camp in top shape and determined to reach his potential. The Dodgers have to hope so.

-- Steve Dilbeck

Photo: James Loney. Credit: Luis Sinco / Los Angeles Times