Dusting off the crystal ball and gazing into the Dodgers' second half

Here are 10 things absolutely, positively guaranteed to happen with the Dodgers over the second half:

1) The team will continue to announce paid attendance figures a good 30% higher than Dodger Stadium’s actual attendance.

Some nights the paid attendance figure is so laughable I actually feel sorry for the PR guy making the announcement in the press box. Lots of people must be staying home. No wonder Frank McCourt is having trouble making those alimony payments.

2) Manny Ramirez will go on the disabled list again.

I’d say he’s suddenly an old 38, but 38 already is old for a ballplayer.

3) Andre Ethier will continue to be the Dodgers’ best and worst interview.

He’s like Pinto in "Animal House," a devil on one shoulder and an angel on the other. You never know which one you’re going to get.

Ethier can be insightful, funny and intelligent. Or he can be terse, confrontational and belligerent. You roll the dice, you take your chances.

4) George Sherrill will return from his new pod as an effective late-inning reliever.

I have absolutely no logical reason to believe this, I just do.

5) Joe Torre will announce in September this is his last season managing.

George Steinbrenner might have been difficult to work for, but everybody in the Yankees' organization understood the mandate -- to win. Why would Torre come back to manage under a dysfunctional, uncertain ownership situation?

6) General Manager Ned Colletti will add a pitcher before the July 31 non-waiver trading deadline.

I didn’t say a significant pitcher, I said a pitcher.

7) Vladimir Shpunt will take pity on a struggling Dodgers team in mid-August and send them some free positive energy.

And people say Russian seers have no heart. Anyway, for what he got paid, he owes them.

8) Vicente Padilla will go on the disabled list with bruised ribs.

This after temporarily forgetting he’s in the National League, plunking one guy too many and getting it back in his next at-bat.

9) Matt Kemp will continue to spend an enormous amount of energy trying to be cool.

On the fence, however, on which Kemp the Dodgers get on the field -- the productive five-tool budding star or the disinterested, underachieving disappointment.

10) The Dodgers will make a September pennant run in the National League West, only to be outlasted this time by the Rockies.

There are plenty of "maybes’’ and "unknowns" that make this the shakiest of the 10 picks, but right now, that’s what the gut is saying. With an admittedly small contribution from brain.

-- Steve Dilbeck

Comments

[Greg]

I quite agree that it's laughable the discrepancies between actual & paid attendance, but I was under the assumption that, 1) this is a league wide thing, not just a Dodgers thing, 2) what, other than pride, is the difference here? I mean, and someone please correct me if I'm wrong here, paid attendance means # of tickets sold (i.e. money that people have paid the Dodgers), actual attendance is just the # of those that have shown up. Then, other than issues of pride (and concessions), what is the actual significance here?

[Yours truly]

Steve, you are indeed the man and (professionally) you're living the life I wish I had.

GREAT JOB!

Keep up the good work ~

[Steve Dilbeck]

Greg: The significance is the number of people who have tickets and are choosing not to attend the games. They used to be called no-shows. There is an alarming number at Dodger games. Whether that's a refusal to support ownership or disinterest in the team, it's trouble for the organization.

[Alan]

2, 4, 5, 6, 9 and 10 are the only ones that matter here.

You're probably right on 2, 5 and 6. And you're hinting correctly on 6, Colletti's idiot boss isn't giving him the "allowance" to spend. Good pitchers aren't cheap, and cheap pitchers aren't good - same as seafood and a lot of other things in life.

And 5, Torre, will be the biggest loss going forward.

As for 9 and 10, if Kemp realized how cool it could be when he's playing to max potential, he'd be beyond cool. The guy has amazing abilities, but doesn't appear to "get it." He could rank among the game's best with the right bust-your-butt-all-the-time effort.

I fear the Dodgers will lose out to the Rocks late, but perhaps not. We're still pitching one arm short, despite the fact 7 wins from the 5-spot so far has been pretty good. The main 4 can't afford the occasional bomb - they have to be solid enough that the Dodgers take stretches of winning 15 of 20, or 9 of 11, or 23 of 30. The rest of the NL West will find a way to clip us more than they have so far, so we've got to beat the others, too.

The Dodgers can do this, but they've got to heat up. The NL West can be had for sure at 95-67 - that's the mark every year to shoot for. So at this point, we need 46-28 from here to the house. That's why a big-name pitcher and his 14 or 15 starts from early July would make so much more sense than a middle-rung pitcher and only 10 or so starts after Aug. 1.

[bob cuomo]

Yes! I'm glad you led off with the attendance item. It truly is a joke that they announce the tickets sold number instead of the number of people actually in the park. I feel sorry for Vinny, who also has to use the paid figure.
As for the other stuff: I agree, it wouldn't surprise me if Ramirez goes on the DL again. And yes, Torre would be crazy to return for another season in light of the ownership thing. Yeah, Colletti probably will acquire a pitcher, but it'll be a No. 4 or No. 5 kind of guy. As for Kemp, I'll borrow a line from Forrest Gump: it's like a box of chocolates, you don't know what you're going to get. And I refuse to acknowledge the Russian guy...oops, I just did.

[Greg]

@Steve - The deterioration of the brand is indeed troubling and I don't dispute that. What I wonder though is, what is the difference between the Dodgers' paid versus actual attendance? It would only be alarming if your 30% is far greater than the rest of the league. This is not to deny that the McCourts divorce is having an effect but I really wonder if casual fans really do care or as aware as those of us who are more hard core fans & journalists who cover the stuff.

Disinterest is a troubling thing for baseball period, not just the Dodgers.

[Steve Dilbeck]

Greg: Well, since MLB doesn't announce actual attendance any longer, there's no way of knowing how the Dodgers' no-shows compare to other teams. The team claims it isn't markedly different than last year. But everyone with vision can see not only the banks of completely empty seats, but often majority of sections only populated by half. There's been several occasions when the Dodgers have announced a crowd in the mid 40s when the stadium was barely half full. The questions is, why?

[Greg]

The answer behind why is because inflated figures look better! That's what wrecked the US economy, after all, however, I think this would only be an issue to the Dodgers if their discrepancy is worse than other MLB outfits. Since as you say MLB no longer publishes actual attendance figures, I don't think this is a Dodgers only issue (which granted isn't a position you asserted in the original post.)

[Rick]

What matters is if the #4 or 5 type starter is like Garland for San Diego this year or Padilla for us last year, that would be great.
I know McCourt might be cheap but the real problem in getting an ace like Lee or Oswalt is that our minor league system peaked about 5 years ago and has stopped producing enough prospects to trade or fill holes on the big club. (Hopefully some of the touted pitchers we do have coming up will pan out.)
Until now Colletti has had prospects to work with and except for a few blunders like giving up Santana (which was a money thing) we shouldn't regret most of the prospects traded away.
Yeah Manny is old but look how well he has hit this year each time he has gotten in the groove right before getting injured. Sure he is not worth $25 million at his present age and physical condition but he is still a good hitter and will help the Dodgers a lot if he stays healthy.