Dodgers' rotation of questions

OK, let’s talk about your deepest Dodgers fear, that open secret still too close to home for the faithful to willingly address:

Starting pitching.

Don’t shudder now, this has to be done. Crossed fingers and heavenly gazes will not get it done.

Truth is, the Dodgers' rotation could just as easily be the best in the N.L. West as it could be the fourth-best.

Each of the first four starters arrive this spring with serious questions, and there is precious little depth behind them. And as it always is, depth will be needed.

Hiroki Kuroda, Clayton Kershaw, Chad Billingsley and Vicente Padilla will head into spring with the first four spots secured. Eric Stults and James McDonald lead a long list of potential fifth starters.

Kuroda, 35, is coming off a reasonable season, considering he twice lost time to injury. Yet 8-7 with a 3.76 ERA was hardly an improvement from his previous season, and at his age, further injury is always a risk.

Kershaw remains an absolutely exciting prospect. He enjoyed an excellent sophomore year (8-8, 2.79, 185 strikeouts). He also threw a career-high 171 innings and will probably throw more this season. As much as he looks like a coming ace, the Dodgers will have to closely monitor the effect of the extra work.

Billingsley is in danger of becoming an enigma. There are times when he looks brilliant, and others when he appears fragile. He got off to a strong start last year and seemed to have built his confidence, only to fade in the second half. This is his fifth year, and he needs to pull it together.

Padilla essentially replaces innings-eating Randy Wolf in the rotation. After coming to the Dodgers Aug. 20, the mercurial Padilla, counting the postseason, went 5-1 with a 3.20 ERA. He did not throw at hitters, cause a riff in the clubhouse or say his daddy was bigger than your daddy. Now, can he keep it together a full season?

As a group, it could be strong. Then again, it’s not a stretch to imagine it going the other way.

Now look at the projected rotations of the Dodgers' N.L. West rivals.

Arizona: Brandon Webb, Dan Haren, Edwin Jackson, Ian Kennedy and Billy Buckner.

Colorado: Ubaldo Jimenez, Aaron Cook, Jorge De La Rosa, Jeff Francis and Jason Hammel.

San Diego: Chris Young, Jon Garland, Mat Latos, Kevin Correia and Clayton Richard.

San Francisco: Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Jonathan Sanchez, Barry Zito, promising phenom Madison Bumgarner.

Only the Padres are obviously overmatched. Lincecum is coming off consecutive Cy Young award-winning seasons and leads a deep staff. Webb and Haren are potential Cy Young winners for Arizona. Colorado is solid one through five.

Of course, none of the rival staffs figure to be supported by the kind of lineup the Dodgers will put together.

But to win consistently, the Dodgers will need plenty of rotation questions answered. If they expect to repeat in the West and finally advance to the World Series, the answers will all have to be positive.

And that’s pretty questionable.

-- Steve Dilbeck

Photo: Dodgers starting pitcher Chad Billingsley. Credit: Los Angeles Times

Comments

[demrmybums]

I note you are pessimistic about our starting pitching, yet you overlook the fact that Lincecum has put up more innings has a more unorthodox delivery and is therefore more likely to suffer injury than the Dodger Starters. Webb is coming off an injury and therefore is a total unknown factor he may return to his previous level or he may crash and burn. What we can look at is what they have previously accomplished and use that to attempt to project the staff as a whole over the upcoming season.
In reality Lincecum will probably pitch another great season and Webb will probably be among the best in the league and that is the way we should look at them in our analysis. The same is true for Billingsley, and Kershaw. They are young and should match up well against any competition.
As far as the 5th spot in the order the Dodgers have a number of pitchers with ML experience that have demonstrated the ability to pitch at that level. I personally favor Haeger as a knuckleball pitcher he will provide a significant change from the Dodger fireballing starters, however, Torre has not shown any true confidence in Haeger dropping him from the rotation after one bad start, so we will probably see Stults in the 5th spot with Haeger as the long man. Both are out of options and I would not be surprised to see them released to the benefit of another club while we hold on to PVLs to the detriment of the team in the long run.

[Bluto Blutarsky]

You can take any generalization too far, including the one that says "Pitching wins ballgames."

Pitching keeps us in ballgames, preventing blowouts.

But aggressive offense shouldn't be underestimated. We're not dominant in this department, but we can hold our own.

One of the definitions of excellent management is "Getting above-average performance from average people." Torre & staff will need to do this with the pitching staff, again.

Wolf and a committee of others, including Padilla, stepped up big-time last year.

Different season, a new face here and there, but same challenge.

[nash west]

The pitching should be solid in the first three spots. The fourth seems to be good, but the Dodgers have been seeking for the fifth starter for several years. The offense would improve if the could get one bat into the line up to protect the top four men. A player with a good average with some "POP". Is there a solid minor league catcher that can come through? We have a solid back up catcher to give the starter a rest every now and then. But we need a tough starter. Russell Martin is done as a catcher. Poor arm, weak bat. Maybe be a back up for third or first base. Or use as trade bait to bring in another solid pitcher.

[Dodger Tony]

Clayton Kershaw led the league in walks last year, which should be of enormous concern. Hiroki Kuroda has thrown an ungodly number of innings if you combine Japan and the U.S. Vicente Padilla, while a gamer, has relatively average numbers over the course of a full season. Our fifth starter will most likely be McDonald, as Torre has shown absolutely no confidence in Eric Stults. I have no comment on Chad Billingsley except that he should be traded.

[Hollywood Dodger Mark]

The whole division has great starting pitching. Ours got slightly worse. Padilla and upgrade over Wolf though. Pressure on Billingsly will intensify as season goes on. Needs a sports shrink. Our offense also took a hit - speed: Pierre/ODog gone. Manny much less of a hitter now which means Eithier will be on his own. I question Kemp's work ethic and his moth-like attraction to the bright lights of Hollywood. As discussed, Martin is done. I can't watch another entire season of 5-3 ground outs. Blake, tons of guts, is a year older and faded in second half. The real enigma which no one EVER discusses is the 12 million (36 for 3 years) in the 6 hole - Mr. Furcal. I believe his insane salary is partially the cause of ODog's departure. Imagine having 20 million or more dollars spent on the DP combo - not under this regime, my friends. Furcal has been at the bottom of the heap defensively in the NL shortstop department for the past few years. Did he lead the league in errors again? If anyone knows, please post, my gut says yes. His freewheeling batting style has always made him a streaky, neither-fish-nor -fowl type lead off hitter. Poor stick handling makes him a bust in the two hole. Put him at the bottom and he sulks. As a fan favorite he constantly escapes media scrutiny. Bullpen is best in the game. I'm also with the knuckler as well. Give him all the starts he can eat. Especially early games. Looking for bigger things from Loney. Ice water in clutch. Belliard now old and fatter than before. No range.

[Jess]

Pitching is good enough to win the West IMO. Not much of a drop off, if any, replacing Wolf with Padilla. Hiroki getting drilled on the noggin was his main injury, considering he started the year hurt and regained his form. I think Kershaw's gonna have a great year, which leaves Bills(Torre wil figure out the #5 spot). I agree he needs to see a shrink! His stiff is just too good to be hot and cold like that. Hopefully he's lying on a couch, crying and what not, getting "healed" as we speak. (Ace Ventura voice)"I have excorsiiiiized the demons!!"

My quesion is the "O". Manny needs to let that past go and just play ball. Act like the goofball he is and keep the clubhouse loos. No need to press when Either, Kemp and Loney are ready to carry the load. But when he sulks it creates tension that negatively affects the young guys. Manny gets back to being Manny, stats be damned, Dodgers will roll. Too good of a lineup not to.

[Bluto Blutarsky]

I have my concerns about Billingsley, as well, but it's time to circle the wagons.

Whatever he needs, I think Torre & company are going to try their best to provide it.

Torre made a very astute move in leaving Bills out of the NLCS rotation. If the manager had given up on him, there wouldn't have been even a one-year contract offered.

My advice is to pitch him against the stiffest competition, to harden him for the stretch and post-season. We do him no favors by saving him for the weaker match-ups.

[Bob Michelson]

The Dodgers will be luck, really lucky, to make the playoffs, they have not improved a weak batting line up, Manny carried them for the first half last year and then became less then good the second half, the youngsters they would not trade for a winning starting pitcher that can pitch innings and is young are not what they are cracked up to be, or have not yet been. The league they play in will be tougher this year, their pitching is more then suspect and looks mediocer at best. Fire the general manager that overpaid for every broken down player he has found for the club, get rid of the top heavy salaries, and look for some pitching help and a big bat and then we might have a chance. I am still a fan and hope the Dodgers well this season, but I am a long time fan and have seen much better clubs then this one.

[Jess]

"Manny carried them the first half last year.."

Huh? How could he have carried him in the first half when he was suspended for 50 games??

[Kevin]

Do any of you watch Dodger baseball? Most of you talk like we have a weak lineup...um anything but! We had one of the best lineups top to bottom last year, and that's not going to change. And to all your Martin haters GIVE ME A BREAK!! The guy is still one of the best defensive catchers in the NL, and even though he had a terrible year offensively he is still better than most catchers in baseball. Seriously people think before you post.

[gene]

The Dodgers aren't trying to build a champion. They're trying to build a team that will be competitive enough to make an argument that if everything and I mean EVERYTHING goes right they might win the division again, and if so anything can happen. Unfortunately, in refusing to acquire the missing ingredients of a championship team they're squandering the best years of their young talent. I can't remember a good Dodger team having a weaker rotation than this one.

[rolie]

Nice Post. I like the rotation comparisons. Looks like we have a slightly better rotation than the Madres. SF, Arizona, and Colorado look to be better.

Our rotation looks manageable during the regular season with the offensive support. I think it'll be harder to get to the NLCS this year. Without O Dawg we are gonna see a lot of missed double plays. Our bullpen will again be fatigued by playoff time. Our starting pitchers aren't that great, except for the improving Kershaw. He is the only bright spot. Billingsley is the big question mark. It'd be nice to get him back on track.

Edwin Jackson coming back to haunt us. Can't wait.

[Andrew Wagner]

Some frightening comments on this article. First of all, the stats listed for Kershaw are incorrect. He actually was 8-8 with a sub 3 era and 180 k's. Second of all, it is pretty obvious that some of these commenters are fair weather fans. Really...the Dodgers wouldn't offer a one year deal to Billingsley if Torre had given up on him? Ever heard of arbitration? Do you guys understand player value at all? The last comment appears to have been written by a fan of an opposing team. Bob Mickelson claims that the Dodgers didn't improve a weak batting lineup. That leaves me speechless, as the Dodgers led the league in batting average and were top 10 in most offensive categories. Demrmybums.....great post. Nash West....to answer your question...there are NO solid catchers with pop in the minors. Martin had an incredibly frustrating career, I agree. However, he had 2 stellar years for a catcher in 07 and 08, and is only 25 I believe, still to early to say he is "done". HollywoodDodgerMark...It is pretty obvious you have some distaste for Furcal. I wont argue with your analysis on OBP, but your conclusion on his defense is utter lunacy. Errors are the worst defensive measurement there is. He has elite range and a top 3 SS arm in MLB. He consistently ranks in the upper echelon of SS in range factor, UZR and other metrics. Surely you would rather have a SS who made errors only because he got to more balls than any other SS, than a guy who made no errors because he only got to balls 3 feet to his left an right. Furcal at least has a chance at getting an out on a ball in the 5-6 hole, and if he doesn't, it's a basehit anyways! I'm not trying to bad mouth anyone here, don't take it personally. I just don't like when people are misinformed and then post an opinion as a fact, because all it does is give Dodger fans a bad name

[oldbrooklynfan]

I think the grass is always greener in the other fellows yard.
But that can just be imagination.
When you worry, you see all the negative stuff.
I think we have just as good a rotation as any of the rest but it's harder for us to see it.

[bob cuomo]

Another very good post, Steve. Sorry, but the Dodgers will not finish any higher than second (maybe not that high) because their starting pitching isn't good enough. I'm a fan saying that too. For one thing, they don't have an ace. Sure, Kershaw is going to be a star, but it won't be this season...perhaps after one more year of experience. Billingsley is too inconsistent. Kuroda is on the downside. Yes, Padilla did pitch well after being acquired, but can he do it for say, 30 starts? And there's no No. 5 guy...as you said, it'll probably be Stults or McDonald, who wants to start this season.

[WBB]

Except for Lincecum, the G-nats have the most overrated staff in the major leagues. Leading the way is Matt Cain, the single most overrated pitcher in the bigs.

[underdog]

A desire to see Chad Billingsley, whom most scouts still consider to be one of the better young -- accent on word "young" - pitchers in baseball, someone they consider at worst a very good #2 starter and at best still a potential ace, traded, would be the kind of mistake fans would regret quickly and down the road in equal measure. For a team that needs more pitching to trade one of their best young pitchers is absolutely senseless, imho. There are indeed some potential question marks and concerns about the rotation, though some of those gaps could very well be filled by other young guys coming up like McDonald, Elbert, Lindblom and the like. Thanks for the post, at any rate.

[Steve Dilbeck]

Andrew: Thanks on the heads up on the incorrect stats on Kershaw. They have now been corrected.

[Mark]

If the Dodgers could pick up Wang or Martinez for the second half of the season and the playoffs, they might be in good shape. I still think the Dodgers are the second best team in the NL after the Phillies. They are a good enough team to win it all if they get a lot of lucky breaks and their rotation lacks enough depth so that a few bad breaks could leave them a .500 team.

[These Dodgers Suck]

no Dodger team has ever won anything without top quality starting pitching

[Bluto Blutarsky]

This is the best team money refuses to buy.

McCourt & Co. are all about leverage. Some fans that see a reduced payroll ask, "Where is the money going?"

Into his pocket, his bride's, and their attorneys.

After two seasons reaching the NLCS, they think they have this game, gamed.

With Billy Beane it was Moneyball; with McC it's Stingyball.

Wait till players go on sale, and if you must buy now, buy "seconds."

Remember, in '08, Manny was FREE!

[MyDogTasha]

OK, please stop comparing the Dodger rotation to that of others in the NL West.

This is the rotation we should be trying to match up to:

Roy Halladay, Cole Hamels, Jamie Moyer, Joe Blanton & J.A. Happ

Beat that rotation to make it to the World Series. And, in the process, you'll leave Arizona, Colorado, San Francisco and San Diego in your rearview mirror.

[68elcamino247]

May 24, 2010
Circle that date on your calendars.
That is the day the custody trial is set to begin.
She wins, team is torn down quickly.
He wins, team is sold in a more orderly manner.

[artieboy]

Sadly I think SF will have the best starting pitching overall. However I think our boys will keep most games close...close enough for our bullpen to take over.

If we have the lead going into the 7th count is as a W.

I think our biggest problem is the first month of the season where the majority of games are on road in freezing weather.

[artieboy]

>>OK, please stop comparing the Dodger rotation to that of others in the NL West.<<

If we can't beat the others in the west then we most likely won't be in the post-season to begin with. I believe 1 through 4 we ill be OK. #5 at the start of the season will be different at the AS break and will be different in September.

What about the defense around the pitcher particularly up the middle. Russel Martin can block the ball but can't throw anybody out...Belliard has very limited range at 2B...Furcal was not the same SS in 2009 that he was before the back surgery. Will he return to his former self or is 2010 a copy of 2009 which wasn't very good.

If your starter can get the ground ball he needs but the middle infielders are too slow to make the play...what's the point.

[artieboy]

>>no Dodger team has ever won anything without top quality starting pitching<<

Our 2004 boys got into the playoffs without top quality pitching.

Unless you consider: Weaver, O. Perez, and Lima time quality pitching

[artieboy]

>>He consistently ranks in the upper echelon of SS in range factor, UZR and other metrics.>Furcal at least has a chance at getting an out on a ball in the 5-6 hole, and if he doesn't, it's a basehit anyways!<<

If he can get to the ball and keep it in the infield so that the runner at 2B can only go to 3B then that by itself is a good play...but sadly I don't think he did much of that in 2009.

If the metrics say something different then maybe they are just as bad a defensive measurement as errors.

[rdlee]

I'd start Jeff Weaver as my #5.

[Hollywood Dodger Mark]

RE: Furcal:
"your conclusion on his defense is utter lunacy. Errors are the worst defensive measurement there is. He has elite range and a top 3 SS arm in MLB. He consistently ranks in the upper echelon of SS in range factor, UZR and other metrics. Surely you would rather have a SS who made errors only because he got to more balls than any other SS, than a guy who made no errors because he only got to balls 3 feet to his left an right. Furcal at least has a chance at getting an out on a ball in the 5-6 hole, and if he doesn't, it's a basehit anyways!"

Mr. Wagner, regarding Raphael Furcal's defense. LOL. I think you made my point. When you lead the league in errors at your position I don't think saberhagen metric numbers do you any good. If only I could remember the UZR for Maury Wills. As for arms, Shawon Dunston had a great arm as well. Furcal is done.

[N.P.Krohn]

Bills broke his leg in the off season last year and was overcompensating on his way to an all-star first half before his arm fell apart and lack of off-season conditioning caught up with him in the second half. As long as the arm did not suffer irreperable damage there is no reason not to expect a great year. Kershaw is for real and will only get better, this year could be something special. Padilla will drive us all crazy but win more than he loses. Kuroda making 25 starts could be the difference between first or second place this year. No.5? Top of the rotation guys are supposed to get CG's but when it comes from the bottom it has a huge impact on the entire staff many games after. The only Blue's arm I know of with multiple CG's in the last two years is Stults. He fields the position better than anyone else in the rotation and when he starts we have an A.L. type line-up. Pedro will be there in July and should be grabbed but Stults deserves a dozen starts in Apr. and May to see what he can do.

[Ricky rincon]

The last time I heard or read about a sports shrink counseling a pitcher, it was Mark Hendrickson on the couch. All Bills needs is run support and a sizable lead.

[rick jamison]

Face it. The Dodgers WILL NEVER get to the World Series as long as McCourt is the owner.

[Allen]

I have no idea of the direction that the Dodgers want to go in. Just about all of their signings will add to their minor league teams and are maybe o.k. as backups but with a pitching staff that is just fair and no real power after the three outfielders, how can this team even think that it can contend for anything? It seems that the split at the top of Dodger ownership will cause over 3 million fans to visit the all you can eat areas more often as the games will get out of hand more often.

[FanUpInSB]

The rotation the Dodgers need to match is the Phillies. They have beaten the Dodgers twice in the NLCS. I still can't get over Sherrill and Broxton giving up runs in late innings to the Phillies. I think they should sign Pedro Martinez, he can teach the young guys how to pitch and it would lift Manny's spirits. I do however have a hard time seeing 2010 being a Dodger year. They need a pitcher to have the "winning magic" to ride to victory; see Hershiser in'88. Also hard to see most of the lineup having monster years and slugging out wins like the Red Sox. Trying to be realistic here . . .

Colleti has done OK as GM, a few bonehead moves (Jones, Schmidt), but overall most moves have been good. I don't want to see them give up young talent. McCourt is a concern, guy is way in over his head and barley hanging on for a millionaire. Payroll should be at $120 million without breaking a sweat.