California's population to grow 39% by 2060, report says

California's population will reach nearly 52.7 million by 2060, according to a new state report. 

The projection, released by Gov. Jerry Brown's Department of Finance, said the state will cross the 50 million threshold by 2049.

The report showed 39% growth in the state's population. By comparison, if there was a state made only from the difference between the California's current population and its projected population in 2060, it would be the fifth-largest state in the nation. 

California's demographics are also in for a major shift, according to the report: For the first time since California became a state, Latinos will be a plurality in early 2014. By 2060, they will be nearly half of the state's population. 

Although the state's Asian population is also growing, it will only be a little more than 13% of the state's population, the report said.

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California taxes surge in January, report says

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-- Chris Megerian in Sacramento
twitter.com/chrismegerian

California taxes surge in January, report says

California was flooded with tax dollars in January, according to a new report, and the state received $5 billion more revenue this month than Gov. Jerry Brown had anticipated.

The Wednesday report from the Legislative Analyst's Office shows a stark reversal for the state budget. At the end of November, tax revenue had fallen almost $1 billion short in the current fiscal year, according to figures from Brown's Department of Finance.

Now the state appears to be $5 billion ahead, which could provide further evidence for the governor's declaration that California has emerged from its financial crisis.

The analyst's office floated three possible causes for the surge in tax revenue. The most positive theory is also the simplest -- the economy has improved and there's more income to tax.

The others are less optimistic. It's possible that wealthy residents, fearful that federal budget negotiations would increase their taxes, decided to cash out investments early. If so, that means the state could see less tax revenue in the next fiscal year.

It could also be an issue of timing -- this year, residents may end up paying more of their taxes in January and less in April.

In addition, there's an important caveat to the positive news from the Legislative Analyst's Office. Much of the extra revenue could be gobbled up by the state's constitutional school funding formula, said Jason Sisney, a deputy legislative analyst.

“There are certainly scenarios where the increased revenue is entirely consumed by Proposition 98," he said.

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-- Chris Megerian in Sacramento
twitter.com/chrismegerian

Photo: Gov. Jerry Brown discusses a chart showing budget surpluses. Credit: Rich Pedroncelli / Associated Press

Federal courts give California more time to ease prison crowding

Three federal judges on Tuesday agreed to give California an additional six months to reduce prison crowding to contested levels.

The U.S. District Courts' order that moves the deadline from June to December also demands California divulge whether it intends to file a motion to cease federal oversight of its prison healthcare system. The state in early January filed such an action to end oversight of the care given to mentally ill inmates, and Gov. Jerry Brown had vowed to seek a similar end to healthcare oversight as well. In the meantime, the judges put California’s motion to dismiss prison population caps altogether on hold.

Last week, one of those judges also ordered the state to produce details of its plans to return some 9,000 prisoners now housed in private prisons out of state, and to tell the court where it intends to house them.

California contends it no longer needs to meet court-ordered population caps in order to provide adequate care to inmates. In multiple orders, the judges have insisted the state reduce prison crowding to 37.5% above capacity, or to about 110,000 inmates. California is currently at nearly 150% of capacity.

Lawyers for inmates in the class-action lawsuits complain California's bid to rid itself of federal oversight came without warning. California last fall blocked efforts by plaintiffs to gather information on how the state was planning for prison population changes, saying such fact-finding was premature. Inmate lawyers have told judges they now are hard-pressed to conduct discovery and gather evidence in the three months allowed under federal law.

"They started a war basically. It was a surprise attack," said Don Specter, lead attorney for the Prison Law Office. The Berkeley firm is handling a 12-year-old inmate class action against the state over prison medical care.

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-- Paige St. John in Sacramento

Assembly race will split key Jerry Brown allies

The battle for the Bay Area Assembly seat being vacated by Joan Buchanan next year will be a typical Capitol struggle, with labor-backed candidates squaring off against more business-friendly moderates.

What will make next year’s race a bit unusual is the fact that one of those candidates, Orinda City Councilman Steve Glazer, just happens to be an advisor to Gov. Jerry Brown.

Glazer defines himself as a “Jerry Brown Democrat,” seeking to find balance between environmental protections and stoking job growth. That’s not surprising, given Glazer’s role as a consultant for the state Chamber of Commerce and another business coalition seeking to rewrite the state’s environmental laws.

Among the other candidates in the race is Tim Sbranti, the mayor of Dublin, who has the backing of the powerful California Teachers Assn.

The CTA has been an important ally for Brown, giving millions to his 2010 campaign as well as his effort to pass Proposition 30 last year. Brown has not officially endorsed a candidate in the race, but Glazer says the governor is “supportive” of his candidacy. Sbranti will likely have the backing of the CTA and Democratic political consultant Gale Kaufman will run his campaign.

The race also underscores the sometimes uneasy relationship between Brown and some parts of the Democratic base. While they have backed the governor in the past, the CTA has been wary of Brown’s plans to alter the state’s education funding formulas, a centerpiece of his legislative agenda this year.

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-- Anthony York in Sacramento

Photo: Steve Glazer, an Orinda City Councilman and advisor to Gov. Jerry Brown who is running for a state Assembly seat next year, takes Brown's Pembroke Welsh corgi, Sutter, for a walk in the Capitol in 2011. Credit: Don Kelsen / Los Angeles Times

Jerry Brown aide announces state Assembly bid

Steve Glazer, who managed Gov. Jerry Brown’s 2010 campaign, announced his own candidacy for state Assembly on Tuesday.

Glazer, who serves on the City Council in the Bay Area city of Orinda, looked to stake out ground in the political center in a statement Tuesday, saying he wants to “eliminate roadblocks to economic revitalization and job creation” while working to protect the environment.

He said Brown would be supportive of his campaign but that the governor has not formally endorsed his bid.

Glazer is no stranger to the Capitol. He worked for Senate leader David Roberti and for Gray Davis while Davis served in the state Assembly. While continuing to serve as an informal advisor to Brown, Glazer also helped the California Chamber of Commerce during the last round of legislative elections.

That support from the business community could prove pivotal in what has historically been a moderate district. The 16th Assembly District seat Glazer will seek is currently held by Assemblywoman Joan Buchanan, a Democrat, who will be forced from office next year by term limits.

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-- Anthony York in Sacramento

Skelton: Jerry Brown's speech was good, but not complete

Gov. Jerry Brown is on a roll. Democrats effusively praised his State of the State speech, while Republicans held their fire. 

In Monday's column, George Skelton says the governor's speech was "vintage Brown: Quoted dead guys. Recalled California’s glory. Preached bold vision."

But, Skelton says, there are "two things he inexcusably ignored."

One was gun control. Secondly, Brown didn't talk about hundreds of billions of dollars in unfunded obligations for public employee pensions and retiree healthcare. 

“It’s the most serious financial problem facing the state and that’s why I’m so disappointed that so little attention is being paid to it,” says Joe Nation, a Stanford professor and former lawmaker.

All of Skelton's columns are here. 

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Photo: Gov. Jerry Brown delivers his State of the State address at the Capitol. Credit: Luis Sinco / Los Angeles Times

Federal receiver says California prison claim "distorts" his position

This post has been updated to include response from state agency officials.

The overseer of California's prison healthcare said Friday that Gov. Jerry Brown's claim he supports California’s contention that prison crowding no longer is a problem is untrue, and   "distorts" and "misrepresents" his true position.

J. Clark Kelso's lengthy status report, filed Friday before a federal judge in San Francisco, gives California credit for continued improvements to its troubled prison system. However, Kelso concludes with a sharp rebuke to Brown's declaration earlier in the month that California is ready to shed federal oversight.

"The State attempts to cite our recognition of the State’s prior compliance with Court orders and our silence regarding particular problems caused by overcrowding as an endorsement of the State’s position that further compliance with the overcrowding order is unnecessary," Kelso wrote. "That distorts the content of our reports and misrepresents the Receiver’s position."

Brown and his lawyers argue that California can deliver constitutionally adequate care to inmates even at crowding levels 45% above what the state's 33 prisons were designed to hold.

[Updated 5:30 p.m. Jan. 25: State corrections officials on Friday again contended crowding no longer impairs medical care. “We have shrunk the prison population by more than 25,000 inmates just since realignment has been in effect, and by more than 43,000 inmates since 2006,” said Deb Hoffman, undersecretary of communications for the California Department of Corrections and Rehabilitation. “The Court itself has said that due to the tremendous improvements in prison medical care, the end of the receivership is in sight.”]

Kelso disagreed. He argued that overcrowding continues to be a chronic problem that creates "a cascade of consequences that substantially interferes with the delivery of care."

Kelso said there is inadequate evidence to support Brown's assertion the state can deliver adequate medical care. "Instead," he wrote, "the available evidence supports only the more limited conclusion that significant progress and improvements have been made, without establishing that the constitutional threshold has been crossed."

At this point, California has only asked federal judges to set aside oversight of mental health care in the prisons, and to drop population caps the state admits it cannot meet. Brown said he intends to also file motions seeking to dismiss oversight of prison medical care.

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--Paige St. John in Sacramento

California lawmakers to hear testimony on state's gun laws

Looking at possibly tightening the state’s gun and ammunition laws, California lawmakers will hold a special hearing in Sacramento next week to review the state’s firearms policies and its history of gun violence.

The special joint hearing of the Assembly and Senate Public Safety committees comes as President Obama is pushing for federal restrictions on certain types of weapons. Many of those guns are already illegal in California, which has among the toughest gun laws of any state in the nation.

In the wake of the school shooting in Newtown, Conn., in December, many California lawmakers have already introduced bills in this state urging further restrictions on access to various weapons and ammunition.

Sen. Kevin De Leon (D-Los Angeles) has introduced a bill that would require anyone who wants to buy ammunition to first obtain a permit and undergo a background check.

Sen. Leland Yee (D-San Francisco) is pushing legislation that would require gun owners to reregister their weapons annually and limit devices that allow for faster reloading of semiautomatic weapons.

Gov. Jerry Brown has in recent weeks avoided questions when asked about whether the state should have tougher gun restrictions.

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--Anthony York in Sacramento

Photo: Senator Kevin De Leon (D-Los Angeles). Credit: Nick Ut / Associated Press

Gov. Brown calls for environmental law reform to 'cut needless delays'

Gov. Jerry Brown said in his State of the State address Thursday that he wants to refine California’s environmental protection laws so they don’t unnecessarily hold up development projects that create jobs.

"We … need to rethink and streamline our regulatory procedures, particularly the California Environmental Quality Act," Brown told the joint session of the Legislature. "Our approach needs to be based more on consistent standards that provide greater certainty and cut needless delays."

The comments came a few weeks after a group of business leaders called for changes in CEQA to prevent what they say is lawsuit abuse that misuses the environmental laws to bottle up projects in court.

On Thursday, the Natural Resources Defense Council asked the governor to preserve CEQA.

"We urge Gov. Brown to reject efforts to weaken the California Environmental Quality Act, which has provided protections against local pollution and health threats for residents for more than 40 years,’’ the council said in a statement responding to Brown’s address.

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-- Patrick McGreevy in Sacramento 

Photo: Gov. Jerry Brown gives his State of the State address at the Capitol. To the left is Assembly Speaker John Perez; at right is Senate President Darrell Steinberg. Credit: Hector Amezcua / Sacramento Bee

Groups disagree if California crime rise related to prison plan

Public policy groups are seizing on new statistics from the FBI to claim California's prison realignment plan is causing "significant increases" in crime, even as others say the numbers show no connection at all.

The Sacramento-based Criminal Justice Legal Foundation said the FBI numbers released this week show a 7.6% increase in homicide and double-digit increases in burglary and auto thefts the first half of 2012 when compared to the first six months of 2011. Foundation President Michael Rushford said the cause is obvious: Gov. Jerry Brown's 2011 plan to cut state spending and ease prison crowding by making nonviolent felonies county jail offenses. He said the numbers give credence to anecdotal stories of increased crime across California since the plan took effect.

“This report tends to confirm what police chiefs, sheriffs, parole officers, and even some judges have been warning us about over the past year. Crime in California is increasing under realignment,” Rushford said.

Not so fast, according to the Center on Juvenile and Criminal Justice.

The center agrees that violent and property crimes in California rose in 40 of California's 69 large cities, the biggest crime increase the state has seen in 20 years. Those crime rates varied greatly by community, rising as high as 33% in San Mateo and dropping as low as 13% in Santa Barbara.

Researcher Mike Males said there was no connection between those changes and places with the largest proportion of "realigned offenders," individuals who would have gone to prison in the past but are now the wards of counties. In fact, crime rates dropped in five counties receiving a disproportionate share of those new prisoners.

"Analysis of the best data available to date suggests that offenders and parolees who have not committed violent or serious crimes can be supervised at the local level without jeopardizing public safety," Males said.

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-- Paige St. John in Sacramento