UCLA-USC preview

No shocker here ... USC is a better football team this year than UCLA.  As one of only media guys who focuses primarily on these two programs (the Orange County Register's Adam Maya is the other, though our own David Wharton has been on both beats this season), here's my take on how L.A.'s crosstown rivals match up.

When USC has the ball:

Expect a big game from Trojan tailbacks. USC should easily pile up 200 yards on the ground and a couple guys probably will hit the 100-yard mark. It wouldn't be shocking to see three players break that barrier.

The one area where the Bruins can disrupt USC is when the ball is in the hands of Mark Sanchez. Brian Price and Brigham Harwell clog up the middle for UCLA, and could help get some pressure on the Trojan signal caller. Unfortunately for UCLA, Sanchez is mobile and throws well on the run. Flushing him out of the pocket only gives USC's receivers time to get open. The Bruin secondary, however, is a consistent group that could give the Trojans some trouble. One matchup could be badly exploited, though: USC's Patrick Turner is 6 feet 5. The tallest cornerback on UCLA's two-deep chart is 5 feet 11.

When UCLA has the ball:

UCLA has been held to 10 points or less four times this year. It'll probably happen again Saturday. This is the best defense the Bruins' have seen all year — and it isn't even close. Breaking it down position-by-position borders on cruel and unusual punishment.

The biggest mismatch will be in the trenches. The Bruins have one of the worst offensive lines in America. The Trojans' defense boasts the best front seven in America. You do the math. Some are cynically whispering that this is a recipe for injury. That's a bit melodramatic, but bruised egos can't be ruled out.

The wild card is if Coach Norm Chow has something diabolical planned.

Special teams:

UCLA has a great punter in Aaron Perez, and he'll be important for the Bruins to try to pin USC deep in its own territory. Both teams have consistent kickers. UCLA may have the edge here, but the game won't be close enough for it to matter.

Coaching:

The biggest story lines of the week will come from the sideline and the press box. Will Pete Carroll and Rick Neuheisel battle it out for the title of Captain Charisma? Can Norm Chow stick it to his old boss? Or can DeWayne Walker, for that matter? Is Steve Sarkisian a worthy successor to Chow?

None of these questions can really be answered Saturday. Neuheisel and Carroll's real battle ground is in recruiting, and it will take a couple of years to see any developments there. Chow doesn't have much to work with, so that mitigates what he can do. Maybe he'll have something up his sleeve next year when he returns to the Coliseum press box for the first time in half a decade.

Intangibles:

The rivalry is intense, the Victory Bell is on the line, and 13-9 is still fresh in everybody's memory. But even though this is UCLA's "bowl game," motivation isn't likely to muster them through. In terms of talent, physicality and practice intensity, there's no contest in this one. Home-field advantage is muted by the fact that USC is actually closer to the Rose Bowl than UCLA, and Trojan fans will be out in force to check out the venue of their next contest, scheduled for Jan. 1.

Final outcome:

Over at SportsHubLA.com, they like to make me pick a final score for every game. I'll announce it early this week: 38-7. I think UCLA's Terrence Austin will have one huge play and that's how UCLA gets on the board. USC will spread the ball around so nobody will stand out, but the tailbacks will pad their stats.

—Adam Rose

Photo: Alex Gallardo / Los Angeles Times

Comments

[WESTWOODHERO]

Gee, it wasn't hard to figure out that Adam Rose is in the tank for 'SC.

[Victor]

usc all the way baby

[Brillcat]

Yeah, I think WESTWOODHERO's thoughts aren't too off the mark. Obviously, USC has done much better than the Bruins have this season (and I see little reason that won't continue tomorrow), but it is a bit unseemly that someone who is clearly not an unbiased observer would predict a resounding victory for his team.

[cv]

38 -7 sounds like he is in the tank for ucla