Game 5 planner: UCLA at Oregon State: Saturday, Sept. 29

It’s probably not right to compare a college football team to a pastry, but the key to Saturday's Oregon State-UCLA tilt is turnovers.

The 2-2 Beavers beat Utah at home, 24-7, to open the season, committing two turnovers to none for the Utes. Then they went to Cincinnati, committed seven turnovers (to two) and were walloped, 34-3. Back at home against Idaho State, OSU had just one turnover and forced four during a 61-10 rout. Then last week in Tempe, a 19-0 lead against Arizona State vaporized thanks to six turnovers (against two) in a 44-32 loss. OSU is a Pac-10 worst -8 in turnover margin and averages four turnovers a game!

UCLA has committed eight turnovers this season and forced seven, but five of its eight giveaways were in one game at Utah. In the Karl Dorrell era, when UCLA wins the turnover battle, the Bruins are 20-2, but just 12-20 when tied or losing on turnovers.

So what can we expect?

>> Neither side will be able to run the ball. Oregon State gives up only 29.5 yards a game and the Bruins only 85.5.

>> Both defenses are porous against the pass: Oregon State gives up 259.5 yards a game and a 59.6 completion percentage while the Bruins give up more yards, 304.2, but a much lower completion rate at 51.1. That’s good for the Bruins, since OSU quarterback Sean Canfield is completing 58.6% of his passes, but for only 223.8 yards a game and has nine interceptions. UCLA’s Ben Olson (pictured) has four interceptions in three games, three of which were against Utah.

>> Look for both defenses to apply lots of pressure: Oregon State leads the conference with 14 sacks and UCLA is tied for second at 13.

>> Oregon State will try to step on UCLA’s throat immediately. The Beavers have outscored their opposition 40-3 in the first quarter! Over the next three quarters in their four games so far, the Beavers have been outscored by 12 points. UCLA has a 23-7 edge in first-quarter scoring against its first four opponents, then loses the last three quarters by a combined three points.

>> One area that might make a difference is punting. UCLA’s Aaron Perez is averaging a league-leading 44.3 yards a kick compared with Alexis Serna’s 34.5 yards. That could help the Bruins in field position.

No one wants to win this game worse than Oregon State’s Mike Riley. He’s 0-8 against UCLA, with four losses as an assistant coach at USC and four more as Oregon State head coach. The Bruins have won four in a row against Oregon State, but haven’t played in Corvallis since 2002, the last year of the Bob Toledo era.

The other things you need to know:

>> Weather could be an issue with a high of 66 degrees projected and a possibility of afternoon showers.

>> The latest line shows the Beavers favored by two with an over-under of 54, so the experts project a final score of 28-26. CollegeFootballNews.com sees the game this way: "In a defensive struggle by Pac-10 standards, Oregon State will pull out a poorly-played nail-biter on a late field goal from Alexis Serna." Their prediction is Oregon State 24, UCLA 23.

>> The game will kick off at 3:41 p.m. and be televised in Los Angeles on FSN West with Barry Tompkins, Petros Papadakis and Jim Watson on the call. On the radio, the game will be available on KLAC-AM 570 with Chris Roberts, Matt Stevens and Wayne Cook at the microphones.

I will be providing in-game commentary on this site on a more-or-less continuous basis as we have for the road games at Stanford and Oregon, plus a quick post-game analysis and statistics.

Ben Olson photo courtesy of UCLA