Gas prices continue spiral downward

It's official: the price of gas at the Chevron station I've been watching for months has been halved from its summer high. Back in July, the price was $4.73 for a gallon of regular. This morning, the price was $2.359 for that same gallon. The station is located at the corner of Hill and Colorado in Pasadena.

The Energy Information Administration on its website has weekly average gas prices going back to 1990, but I couldn't find another occasion when the price fell by half. In the past 18 years, most of the price dips were on the order of 20% or so.

Another remarkable threshold: the national average for a gallon of regular is now $1.989, according to AAA. The last time that the average price for a gallon of regular was under $2 a gallon was in early March 2005, according to the EIA statistics.

-- Steve Hymon

Photo credit: Steve Hymon / Los Angeles Times

Gas prices not luring everyone back to their cars

Good evening. Here's an article I wrote today that may run in some editions of The Times tomorrow, space permitting. Some of the information has already been posted here, but I thought I'd go ahead and post the story anyway for those interested:

Remember all those mass transit ridership records set this summer as gas prices spiked?

Those records appear to be history, at least for now, as ridership on some large California transit agencies fell slightly in October. In most cases, the number of riders was higher than a year ago – but off from the peaks of June and July.

Meanwhile, some motorists report that traffic has worsened in the past two months, as it usually does this time of year.

“If I get on the 405 at Century at 7:30 or 8 p.m., I can some days make it to the Studio City area in half an hour,” wrote Marion Jewell, who works near Los Angeles International Airport, in an email to The Times. “That seems like a miracle.”

Many miles away, Oxnard attorney Fred Rosenmund said rush hour traffic remains stinky. “It’s awful and the 101 is still capable of coming to a standstill,” he said, adding that traffic at other times seems to have lightened.

However, data collected by road sensors suggest that traffic on many Southland freeways was typically moving at a slightly faster clip in October of this year than in 2007, according to the UC Berkeley Freeway Performance Measurement System.

So what’s going on out there?

Mass transit officials offer a variety of explanations: seasonal variations in ridership, higher unemployment due to the sour economy and gas prices being the top three. In the last six weeks alone, the price of a gallon of regular gas has fallen about $1.30 on average on the West Coast, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Prices are now under $2.50 at many local outlets in Southern California.

“I’m going to go out on a limb and say I think that gas prices have something to do with it, but I wouldn’t say it has everything to do with it,” said Ed Muncy, director of service planning for the Los Angeles County Metropolitan Transportation Authority. “It’s hard to get a read on what’s going on with the economy and its effect.”

The MTA is the largest transit provider in Southern California, but its numbers are mixed. Overall, about 1.55 million people took MTA buses or trains on an average weekday in October, down from a month earlier and also down about 70,000 from July, when ridership peaked. The subway, however, had more riders in October than in September.

(correction: an earlier version of this post said 1.55 million people took MTA buses or trains in October. It's 1.55 million people on an average weekday.)

The agency sees it another way: Ridership is up from a year or two ago, suggesting that people are either shifting to transit or the number of transit-dependent is growing.

A good example of that phenomenon comes from Metrolink, which specializes in long-haul commuters. Its ridership slipped from 49,261 average weekday riders in September to 48,629 in October. But in October 2007, Metrolink was carrying 44,448 riders each weekday.

Whether they're riding transit or not, more than two-thirds of Los Angeles County voters favored the half-cent sales tax increase for transportation spending in the county, with a heavy emphasis on building more rail. Ballots are still being counted, but Measure R is now holding a comfortable lead.

Some transit agencies continue to see more riders. Foothill Transit –- which operates buses in the San Gabriel Valley –- had a better month in October than in July, and Orange County Transportation Authority buses had their best month ever in October with 6.3 million riders.

“I think there’s a long-term relationship between gasoline and ridership,” Art Leahy, chief executive officer of OCTA. “I was a bus operator in 1974” –- he drove a bus in Los Angeles –- “when the energy crisis caused a jump in ridership that never really went down. We actually saw a similar thing on the Metrolink system. It only dropped off a little.”

Leahy believes it’s only a matter of time until gas prices jump again. And he says his agency will be ready. Instead of selling 150 old buses as planned, the agency decided to keep them in storage for the next big ridership surge.

--Steve Hymon

MTA ridership slips as gas prices fall

The Metropolitan Transportation Authority just released their statistics for October ridership: with the exception of the subway, ridership fell slightly from September as gas prices began their free-fall.

The agency's press release is below. They put a different on the numbers, pointing out accurately that ridership overall is up over a year ago. So, it depends how you look at it. The chart at right shows ridership on the Blue Line to help offer some perspective. (Click on it to see a larger image).

Quickly, here are the September and October numbers:

MTA buses: From 1,253,620 in September to 1,222,589 in October.
Subway: From 149,699 in Sept. to 154,935 in Oct.
Blue Line: From 84,917 in Sept. to 80,577 in Oct.
Green Line: From 45,346 in Sept. to 41,746 in Oct.
Gold Line: From 25,511 in Sept. to 24,004 in Oct.
Orange Line: From 27,987 in Sept. to 25,428 in Oct.

You can see the numbers from the past three Septembers at Metro's website.

This trend of falling ridership seems common. Metrolink, for example, went from 49,261 average weekday riders in September to 48,629 in October. But in Oct. 2007, Metrolink was carrying 44,448 riders each weekday.

One exception is the Orange County Transportation Authority, which set a record for ridership on its buses in October. See Thursday's post, which explains the agency is actually holding onto 150 old buses for the next time gas prices spike.

The Metro press release on their October numbers is after the jump.

--Steve Hymon

Gas prices pancake but OCTA sets new ridership record anyway

I’ve been gathering up transit ridership from agencies around the state, curious as to whether the number of passengers has dipped now that gas prices have cratered since their summer highs. Not all the numbers are in yet, but most agencies have seen a slight dip in ridership since it peaked in July.

One exception is ridership on buses run by the Orange County Transportation Authority, or OCTA. Ridership jumped to an all-time high of 6.3 million for October, surpassing the 6.2 million in July.

“I think there’s a long-term relationship between gasoline and ridership,” Art Leahy, the chief executive officer of OCTA, told me Thursday afternoon. “I was a bus operator in 1974” -– that’s right, he actually drove a bus in Los Angeles –- “when the energy crisis caused a jump in ridership that never really went down. We actually saw a similar thing on the Metrolink system after the [1994] earthquake and people tried it out and stayed. It only dropped off a little.

“There’s a long-term problem here in that oil consumption worldwide is climbing and production is not keeping pace,” he added. “We’re going to see increased market competition for fuel and energy and I think that leads to the conclusion that prices will continue to be unstable and we’ll see fluctuations. I hope it doesn’t happen, but the fact is it’s a fragile market. I think independent of why people take a bus or not, we should prepare for uncertain energy markets in the future.”

In fact, OCTA started preparing for such problems more than a year ago. Instead of selling off old buses that it was replacing, the agency kept about 150 of them in storage, figuring it was worth the $1 million annual cost of maintaining them.

“If we slip into a serious crisis where people can’t get gasoline or if gasoline prices did what they did a few months ago, those buses will be like gold because you won’t be able to get new ones,” Leahy said.

--Steve Hymon

Exxon station won't budge from $4.69 a gallon

Remember the Calabasas Exxon station that last month was charging $4.69 a gallon? As gas prices lurch even farther downward locally, the Calabasas Exxon is still charging … $4.69 a gallon. The above photo, by the way, was taken Sept. 8.

That price regularly tops the Los Angeles charts at Gasbuddy.com, and a call to the Exxon station confirmed it. The man who answered the phone said the station’s owner sets the prices but was not available to talk.

If there were no rival gas stations nearby, I could understand. Convenience and habit might haul in some regulars. But a Google map shows that the Exxon station (listed as a Mobil) is one gas station in a cluster of at least three.

Calabasas Auto Spa & Detail‎ is just 417 feet away, the map says. A man named Amir took my call and said the day’s price for regular gas was $2.99.

You may want to chalk that up to brand names -- the familiarity of “Exxon” inspires a comfort that “Calabasas Auto Spa & Detail” might not (sorry, Amir) -- but the map shows a Chevron station 0.2 miles away.

Do comparable brand names mean comparable prices? Nope. Chevron station store manager Carlos Chavez said his gas was $3.09.

I asked Amir if he knew why the Exxon station charges so much.  “It is strange,” he said.

Does he see people filling up there?

“It sometimes happen,” he said. “I don’t know why.”

Neither do we.

--Lauren Raab

photo: Chris Bucka

Gas prices in tailspin

I took this photo today in downtown San Dimas. I'm glad that I decided not to fill up in Pasadena, where most stations are still selling a gallon of regular for more than $3. The price at the Chevron I've been following since June was $3.21 as of Tuesday.

Sub-$3 a gallon gas is prevalent throughout the Southland, although the Gasbuddy map is still showing a lot of areas where it's more than $3. More significantly, the average gas price around the U.S. has now dipped below prices from last November, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. In California, the average is $3.05.

The big questions are whether prices will remain down and whether it's too late to save the Big Three automakers in the U.S. My colleague Ken Bensinger wrote an excellent article for the Tuesday edition of The Times looking at what may be in store for the Big Three. Some experts, remarkably, said perhaps it's best not to prop them up any further -- there's too much competition from foreign automakers who build cars in the U.S. and that there's no longer enough business to go around. Plus, the Big Three (Chrysler, General Motors and Ford) are saddled with huge pension benefits they have to pay.

On a similar note, Bensinger wrote on The Times' Up to Speed blog Tuesday that Chrysler is in such dire shape that it is ceasing production of two SUV hybrids -- the Dodge Durango and Chrysler Aspen -- before the vehicles could be sold to consumers.

-- Steve Hymon

Photo: Steve Hymon / Los Angeles Times

Chart: U.S. Energy Information Administration

Gas prices drop 26% from June high

The numbers on AAA's daily fuel gauge website are quite incredible today: the price of a gallon of regular in California now averages $3.42 -- down $1.19 from the high of $4.61 on June 19.

Even more stunning is the fact that the average price of a gallon of regular is under $3 in 14 states. Oklahoma is the cheapest at $2.62 a gallon.

It's hard to say if California will see those kind of decreases. Gas tends to run high here because of state requirements for a cleaner type of gasoline. But if prices keep sinking, California may could see $3 gasoline by the holidays.

The big question is whether cheaper gas dampens America's newfound enthusiasm for smaller, more fuel-efficient cars. It's hard to imagine Americans flocking back to big SUVs, given that pulling equity out of homes to buy cars and trucks is no longer a realistic option for many homeowners, or those who still have homes.

--Steve Hymon

Come and get it: $4.69 gas still available in Calabasas

I posted earlier today that the average price of a gallon of regular gas has dropped almost 75 cents since its high of $4.61 on June 19.

So take a guess when this photo of the Exxon station at the corner of Calabasas Parkway and Calabasas Road was taken?

A) June 19
B) July 19
C) August 19
D) Friday!

If you guessed 'Friday,' you guessed right. Alert Bottleneck reader Chris Bucka took this photo. "Which is worse," he wrote me in an email. "The fact that gas there is $4.69, or the fact that there are more than a couple of cars actually filling up!?!"

The price remains $4.69 as of this morning, by the way.

Bucka also noted that gas is about 50 cents cheaper a gallon at the 76 station on the other side of the 101 Freeway. I've seen the same phenomenon at the Chevron station I've been tracking in Pasadena. It's more expensive than the 76 right down the street, but the Chevron has a convenient location and plenty of pumps -- and there are always people filling their tanks there.

--Steve Hymon

photo: Chris Bucka

Gas'onomics 2008: Drive less, pay less, ride more

Two government reports out this week show how high gasoline prices have begun to ripple across the nation's transportation system. Think cause and effect. Or maybe supply and demand.

As Times business writer Ronald D. White reports today, the Federal Highway Administration found that Americans drove less for the seventh month in a row last May. And we're likely headed for the first annual drop in road travel in 28 years.

Lo and behold, White also says, gasoline prices have suddenly begun to decline, according to Energy Department figures. Not enough to keep all those Detroit automakers from melting down their SUV molds but enough to push gas station prices in some parts of the country back below $4 a gallon. The average for California fell 14.3 cents to $4.317 a gallon.

Meanwhile, in it's own story about the decline in driving, CNNMoney.com reports that transit riders -- just like in Southern California -- are setting ridership records:

Usage jumped in the first three months of the year by 88 million trips from a year ago, for a total of 2.6 billion, according to the most recent figures available from the APTA [American Public Transit Assn., a private trade group.]

Some of the most dramatic increases occurred in the light rail systems in Baltimore, Minneapolis and St. Louis, the commuter rails of Seattle and Harrisburg, Penn., the buses of San Antonio and Denver, and the subways and elevated rails of ... Boston.

The Boston Globe reported Monday that the Massachusetts Bay Transportation Authority broke a ridership record of 375 million passengers in fiscal year 2008, which is 21 million more than the prior year.

There is one big downside, as both reports explain: as people drive less and buy less gasoline, the feds predict a significant decline in the gas tax revenue that pays for road and bridge maintenance.

-- Bill Nottingham

Photos: San Bernardino Associated Governments (top); Associated Press / Brian Bohannon (bottom)