Proponents say Measure R results will stand

I've received several e-mails from readers asking if the Measure R results will stand, given that it was a tight race -- it passed with 67.41% of the vote, needing 66.67% -- and that there are still thousands of provisional and absentee ballots to be counted. The short answer is that Measure R proponents are confident the math is in their favor.

County Registrar Dean Logan on Wednesday told the Board of Supervisors that there are likely more than 205,000 provisional ballots and 300,000 to 400,000 absentee ballots still to be counted. (Here's a link to the preliminary transcript.) A little more than 2.4 million people voted for Measure R, so there are potentially a considerable number of votes still out there to counted.

The question is whether there are  enough outstanding votes to change the results. I think it's certainly possible, but I don't have anything in my reporting to suggest it's likely.

If, for example, there are still 500,000 outstanding votes on Measure R still to count and if I'm doing my math correctly, Measure R would have to receive less than 63% of the yes votes from those ballots for it to lose.

(correction: an earlier version of this post said it would have to receive less than 59% to lose.)

MetroriderLA went through the Registrar's posting of Measure R results by city and posted this handy Google spreadsheet of the results. The list shows that Measure R received less than 63% support in most cities and unincorporated areas in the county, however, the list shows that Measure R struggled to get two-thirds support in the San Gabriel Valley, the heart of opposition for the measure.

Even if there are 700,000 ballots outstanding, Measure R would need about 64% of those votes to still pass. Again, the above list of city results suggests that's likely. It's also worth pointing out that the more Measure R votes that were counted, the more support it received -- and the first wave of absentee ballots came in at 64% Tuesday night. Many of the outstanding ballots were likely cast either after the Measure R ads began airing on television or were provisional ballots from Democrats voting for Sen. Barack Obama, which was the exact demographic the Measure R campaign was targeting.

(another correction: an earlier version of this post said it would have to receive 61% of those votes to still pass.)

-- Steve Hymon

Comments

[P.A.]

I make about $95,000 per year and estimate that I spend about $20,000 per year on items that are sales taxed (remember that food, prescriptions and a host of other items are not taxed). This means a $100.00 tax per year from this for me or $8.33 per month. Those making the median income of $50,000.00 and spend $10,000 on sales taxed items will pay $50.00 per year (or $4.16 per month). These are small amounts that will decrease traffic and improve quality of life for all Southern Californians.

[Bob Davis]

A correction on the Monrovian post, the mayor is Rob (not Ron) Hammond. We have friends who live and have a business in Monrovia, and I lived there from 1940 to 1960 (right next to the Pacific Electric tracks!) Our friends and my wife were both against "R", but I voted for it, figuring that "the perfect is often the enemy of the good". I hated to be on they same side with Zevsky, and ignore my local supervisor, but if the tax doesn't pass, the Gold Line Foothill Extension may move from "a few years" to "I should live so long!"

[lsm]

Dana Gabbard, in which states are politics not especially odd? Alaska? Louisiana? Florida? Alas, politics in the Golden State look conventional compared to some of the real wacky leaders. Still, if Republican stonewallers in Sacramento helped pass Measure R, I'll chuckle along with you and thank them.

[Morris Jones]

I find it interesting that in my own home town of Monrovia, Measure R still polled 59% in favor. That means that if our mayor Ron Hammond was running for election based on defeating Measure R, he would lose big time. I hope he and the other SGV officials take due notice. Fixing the west side serves the entire county!

[Ken Alpern]

I think it's safe to say that such a statewide sales tax increase from Sacramento would have killed this funding initiative.

[Dana Gabbard]

M, there was talk of a possible sales tax increase to fix the state budget earlier this year and trust me--we advocates of R were worried it would kill support to ask for a local sales tax while the state was also boosting it (even temporarily). But Republican legislators dug in their heels against any taxes, and only were willing to pass a budget that was so phony it only served to delay the inevitable. But at least it gave us a chance to pass R before the statewide sales tax boost proposal resurfaced. Politics can be odd, especially in this state.

[M]

I wonder how the proposition would have turned out had the plan for the 1.5% tax increase statewide was announced before the election. Having over a 10% sales tax is pretty hefty on top of having state income tax.