Measure R's lead increases, chances of defeat grow slimmer

The lead for the half-cent transportation sales tax hike in Los Angeles County grew slightly on Tuesday from 67.22% to....67.23% with another 121,700 votes having been counted, according to the Los Angeles County Registrar. Measure R needs two-thirds voter approval to pass.

There could still be more than 288,000 absentee and provisional votes to be counted, but the number likely isn't that high (I explained why in this morning's post). With a raw vote lead of at least 14,280 (if, for example, .667% is the threshold), it appears that the results of the remaining ballots will have to be substantially different from the nearly 2.69 million ones that have been counted for Measure R to be defeated.

--Steve Hymon

Comments

[David Galvan]

"But other than Villaraigosa (whom I can't believe I'm praising), I haven't seen one new face in 20 years that has a clue about transit, who is in a leadership position."

Oh, and regarding that: Now that Measure R has passed, the most important step to getting these projects actually built and finished will be acquiring additional funding from the state and the federal government. Villaraigosa has been trying to participate in National politics (he was on Obama's transitional advisor team last week), and may be considering a run for governor. He has also stated, as mentioned in a previous post on this blog, that he's going to work hard to try and get federal and state funds to speed up the purple line extension. Tony V's political ambitions could be good for L.A.'s transit systems, if he stays true to his campaign promise of building a subway to the sea (which he has so far).

[David Galvan]

John Q: For all of your nay-saying, I didn't here much in the way of suggestions on how to do things better. Sure, you said to vote out the leadership and put people who "have a clue about transit", but you certainly don't make it clear how any of the things you predict would be changed for the better if different leadership were in charge.

While most of your grim predictions are impossible to disprove until they don't happen, I'll point out that your expectation that the city will "waste a billion on a people-mover system at the airport (as promised)" is a bit misleading. The people-mover project is an LAX project, not an MTA project, so Measure R's funding can't go to it. And the LAX master plan states where the funding will come from here:
http://ourlax.org/prog_faqs.cfm#q22

I suppose we always have the option to do nothing. You can continue to feel free to do that. The rest of us will be making an investment in the future.

[Dana Gabbard]

We can take some comfort that in Nov. 2004 Measure A, the renewal of the sales tax in San Diego County, similarly passed by the narrowest of margins but the lead actually increased as the provisional and absentee ballots were counted. This article has it passing by 103 votes as of November 3rd:

http://www.nctimes.com/articles/2004/11/04/election2004/17_26_1311_3_04.txt

It eventually achieved 67%:

http://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/co_city_sch_elections/county_report_2004.pdf

I predict all of John Q's dire predictions will not happen. Gokhan is absolutely right about the self-interested politicians and phony community groups that opposed Measure R. I’ll just quote Robert Graves from I, Claudius about how I see the fallout for the dubious opponents:"Let all the poisons that lurk in the mud hatch out."

[John Q]

Gohkan claims the people have "slapped a few ...", as if voting to tax ourselves achieves something.

The joke is on the people.

Just as before, when we passed Measure A & C, along with a few state transportation measures, then found that our local pols killed off all rational mass transit efforts, so too, we will see these monies diverted and diluted, to pay for the stupid leaseback/AIG debt, to buy another billion-dollars worth of buses to satisfy the BRU, to put in more "rapid" "technology", buy "fare evasion" systems, install "safety" systems, expand pointless diesel commuter rail overlays (which were supposed to have been electrified a decade ago), waste a billion on a people-mover system at the airport (as promised), and stripe some half-a**ed "peak hour" bus lanes on Wilshire, without the concrete lanes necessary to support the coaches. The governator will collaborate with Congress, and find the MTA has to pay a few billion for carbon offsets. The Red Line will be extended to Crenshaw, but will not open. The Expo line will be completed to Culver City, but shut down under federal decree until rebuilt with full separation, resulting in Phase II becoming a busway. The so-called 405 transit option will be re-engineered as a bidirectional carpool lane on Sepulveda; new $3 million dollar hybrid hydrogen buses will be painted in Rainbow colors to promote the "emission free" ride, but most coaches won't make it up the hill.

After about five years of nonsense, ALL of the 30-years worth of funding will be gone (yes, they'll borrow against it), and they'll be back, asking for more. Meanwhile, the state will have siphoned equivalent offsetting amounts from existing transportation funds. And you'll still be riding buses at 9 mph.

If you want sound transit systems, you have to replace the incumbent politicians who screwed it up to begin with, BEFORE you decide to simply give them ever-larger piles of cash to burn. But other than Villaraigosa (whom I can't believe I'm praising), I haven't seen one new face in 20 years that has a clue about transit, who is in a leadership position.

But go ahead and rejoice, if being taxed is what fulfills you.

[David Galvan]

Here here! While I know it will take a decade or two, I'm looking forward to my city becoming a GREAT metropolis (not just a big one).

[Matt]

Woo Hoo!!!

[Gokhan]

This is a strong indication that there is no systematic trend left in the votes, and the remaining votes will be mostly statistical effects, which are negligible at this point, being at about 0.1% for the remaining votes, and 0.01% for the final result, which should be 67.23 ± 0.01%.

So, this is great news. The people of Los Angeles County, especially those in the low-income and minority areas, have proudly voted for this measure. By doing so they slapped a few self-interest politicians and phony community groups in the face. With an overwhelming 67+% vote, it is now apparent that these politicians and community groups neither represent their own communities nor Los Angeles County in general, and they need to do the honorable thing and step down.

What a major milestone in the history of Los Angeles! This is when the transition from the city known as where everybody drives and nobody walks to a normal metropolitan city starts.