Gas prices not luring everyone back to their cars

Good evening. Here's an article I wrote today that may run in some editions of The Times tomorrow, space permitting. Some of the information has already been posted here, but I thought I'd go ahead and post the story anyway for those interested:

Remember all those mass transit ridership records set this summer as gas prices spiked?

Those records appear to be history, at least for now, as ridership on some large California transit agencies fell slightly in October. In most cases, the number of riders was higher than a year ago – but off from the peaks of June and July.

Meanwhile, some motorists report that traffic has worsened in the past two months, as it usually does this time of year.

“If I get on the 405 at Century at 7:30 or 8 p.m., I can some days make it to the Studio City area in half an hour,” wrote Marion Jewell, who works near Los Angeles International Airport, in an email to The Times. “That seems like a miracle.”

Many miles away, Oxnard attorney Fred Rosenmund said rush hour traffic remains stinky. “It’s awful and the 101 is still capable of coming to a standstill,” he said, adding that traffic at other times seems to have lightened.

However, data collected by road sensors suggest that traffic on many Southland freeways was typically moving at a slightly faster clip in October of this year than in 2007, according to the UC Berkeley Freeway Performance Measurement System.

So what’s going on out there?

Mass transit officials offer a variety of explanations: seasonal variations in ridership, higher unemployment due to the sour economy and gas prices being the top three. In the last six weeks alone, the price of a gallon of regular gas has fallen about $1.30 on average on the West Coast, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Prices are now under $2.50 at many local outlets in Southern California.

“I’m going to go out on a limb and say I think that gas prices have something to do with it, but I wouldn’t say it has everything to do with it,” said Ed Muncy, director of service planning for the Los Angeles County Metropolitan Transportation Authority. “It’s hard to get a read on what’s going on with the economy and its effect.”

The MTA is the largest transit provider in Southern California, but its numbers are mixed. Overall, about 1.55 million people took MTA buses or trains on an average weekday in October, down from a month earlier and also down about 70,000 from July, when ridership peaked. The subway, however, had more riders in October than in September.

(correction: an earlier version of this post said 1.55 million people took MTA buses or trains in October. It's 1.55 million people on an average weekday.)

The agency sees it another way: Ridership is up from a year or two ago, suggesting that people are either shifting to transit or the number of transit-dependent is growing.

A good example of that phenomenon comes from Metrolink, which specializes in long-haul commuters. Its ridership slipped from 49,261 average weekday riders in September to 48,629 in October. But in October 2007, Metrolink was carrying 44,448 riders each weekday.

Whether they're riding transit or not, more than two-thirds of Los Angeles County voters favored the half-cent sales tax increase for transportation spending in the county, with a heavy emphasis on building more rail. Ballots are still being counted, but Measure R is now holding a comfortable lead.

Some transit agencies continue to see more riders. Foothill Transit –- which operates buses in the San Gabriel Valley –- had a better month in October than in July, and Orange County Transportation Authority buses had their best month ever in October with 6.3 million riders.

“I think there’s a long-term relationship between gasoline and ridership,” Art Leahy, chief executive officer of OCTA. “I was a bus operator in 1974” –- he drove a bus in Los Angeles –- “when the energy crisis caused a jump in ridership that never really went down. We actually saw a similar thing on the Metrolink system. It only dropped off a little.”

Leahy believes it’s only a matter of time until gas prices jump again. And he says his agency will be ready. Instead of selling 150 old buses as planned, the agency decided to keep them in storage for the next big ridership surge.

--Steve Hymon

Comments

[Dan H]

traffic is definitely worse lately. I have been commuting from Pasadena to Santa Monica every day for the past 4 years and these past two months are the worst that I have ever seen it. 2 hours each way is not uncommon. Get the empty "NOT IN SERVICE" buses off the freeways at rush hour! I see at least 20 going the other way both in the morning and the evening.

[Damon Tordini]

I believe OC's ridership will continue to increase. For one, we are still comparatively lower in transit usage than LA.

In OC, at 6.3 million riders/month (205,000/day) this equates to 6.6 trips per 100 people. LA, by comparison, is at about 15 trips per 100 people.

Also, our housing trends are moving towards being transit friendly. Something like 50,000 apt units are in the works for Anaheim's platinum triangle and the Irvine business complex.

[David Galvan]

Carlos: You may have already seen it, but Steve pointed out that the 1.55 million per MONTH figure was an error. The actual figure is 1.55 million people riding MTA buses/trains in an average WEEKDAY.

[Dana Gabbard]

The downside is nearly every transit agency has or is in the midst of raising fares and/or cutting service due to inadequate funding. OCTA, for example, while hugely successful as to ridership is in a world of hurt financially, undergoing a hiring freeze etc. Even though the politicians in Sacramento claim to support mass transit and acknowledge it has a huge role in attaining the greenhouse gas emission reductions mandated by AB 32, they still rob transit to balance the budget. Until a way is found to end this transit will continue being stretched by the tug-of-war between demand and funds...

[Carlos]

I don't think I understand. MTA serves 1.55 million passengers PER MONTH with the subway, light rail, and buses, and OCTA serves about 6.3 million passengers PER MONTH with just bus service. What is the O.C. doing right? Does anyone who reads this blog that rides OCTA have this answer? I sure am curious.