Truth-squadding the new Measure R ads

Three new Measure R ads have debuted. This one emphasizes rail safety,  this one is on bridge safety and the third claims that Measure R will reduce asthma by reducing traffic. (The third ad is posted after the jump).

The first noticeable item, as Rick Orlov at the Daily News has already pointed out, is that no politicians appear in the ads. Of the four ads for Measure R, the only name of a politician invoked came in the first one and it was someone who hasn't been in office for almost 48 years: President Eisenhower.

Now, let's take a look at statements made in the new ads:

WHAT THE AD SAYS: "When an older bridge is shaken by an earthquake, the damage can be devastating," says Jonathan Stewart, a professor of civil engineering at UCLA, standing in front of the 6th Street Bridge in downtown L.A. "Measure R will allow us to repair bridges and tunnels, modernize our freeways and improve rail safety with new technologies."

REALITY: All the statements are technically true and the 6th Street Bridge has been found to have structural issues. However, if you were to go to the Metropolitan Transportation Authority's website and look at the four-page expenditure plan and do a search for the word "safety," you may be surprised that the word is nowhere to be found. Fifteen percent of the revenues go to cities in Los Angeles that can use them on transportation projects as they see fit, including safety. But that hasn't been determined yet. Highway improvements in the plan would have to incorporate modern design, but these projects weren't conceived as safety improvements; rather they're intended to unclog parts of freeways such as the 5 and 710.

WHAT THE AD SAYS: "You don't have to be an expert to know many parts of our rail system are out of date," says Don Sepulveda, president of the Los Angeles section of the American Society of Civil Engineers, while standing on a train platform. "We all know that now...Measure R will allow us to install new technologies like positive train control and automatic train stop systems to prevent accidents before they happen."

REALITY: Metrolink train No. 111 crashed head-on into a freight train on Sept. 12, more than six weeks after the MTA board set the expenditure plan for sales tax revenues. Rail collision technology was not part of the discussion at the July meeting of the board. The plan (see above link) dedicates anywhere from $70 million to $1.18 billion to Metrolink operations, capital improvements and maintenance. It's up to the board to decide how much money it wants to send to the commuter rail agency. It wasn't until after the crash that anti-collision devices were publicly discussed by Metrolink and, quite frankly, that was only because The Times and other media began running stories about how such systems were employed elsewhere. All that said, the ad is technically correct: the MTA board appears to have the authority, if it so chooses, to spend money on safety systems for Metrolink. The expenditure plan does not specify any other money for improved safety systems for Metro light rail or subway systems, but such systems could be implemented on new rail lines built with sales tax money. It should also be noted that Metro rail doesn't have to share its tracks with freight trains, as does Metrolink.

WHAT THE AD SAYS: "Measure R gives people the chance to get out of their cars and into expanded public transit," says Trisha Murakawa, chairwoman of the American Lung Assn., standing on a brushy hillside above urban development. "By synchronizing lights, you'll spend less time idling in traffic. It will cut the rates for childhood asthma by reducing smog and air pollution and will also reduce our dependence on foreign oil."

REALITY: Measuring how much public transit reduces the number of cars on the road is difficult. But it can safely be said that as Los Angeles County's mass transit system has been expanded over the last 18 years, there are more vehicles on the road in 2008 than in 1990 on most freeways, according to Caltrans traffic counts. That said, some numbers have leveled off. For example, the number of vehicles on the Pasadena Freeway in 2003 at the Avenue 43 interchange ranged from 127,000 to 129,000 on a daily basis. The Gold Line opened that year and in 2007, that same interchange had about 122,000 to 127,000 vehicles on a daily basis. Childhood asthma has been linked to smog by studies, most notably a report by USC in 2002. There are many sources of smog in Southern California, according to the South Coast Air Quality Management District, whose 2007 air plan states that the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach remain the largest source of smog in the region. Measure R's expenditure plan does not specifically target the ports, but provides $590 million for unspecified improvements to the southern portion of the 710 Freeway and to grade separations for the Alameda Corridor East project. Those projects could hypothetically reduce truck and train idling, respectively. Other sources of smog include passenger cars, diesel locomotives, airplanes, household chemicals and emissions from factories and power plants.

THE FINAL VERDICT: None of the ads have statements that are blatantly false, but they all have claims that are difficult to quantify. Two of the ads cast Measure R as a safety measure, and safety improvements could result. But safety wasn't at the forefront of Measure R, which has mostly been sold politically as a way to raise funds to build more mass transit and make some road improvements. To quote the MTA's website: "Measure R is a half-cent sales tax increase that is expected to provide the local resources to finance new transportation projects and accelerate those already in the pipeline."

--Steve Hymon

Comments

[Brad]

Hi Steve - love your blog but wanted to make a quick note about your last statement and how you looked at the total number of cars at an intersection. This is useful in the sense of 'how busy is that intersection' but doesn't give the entire picture. I looked at the CalTrans website to look at the VMT (Vehicle Miles Traveled). From 2000 to 2007 VMT in LA County increased by 7.4% (from 37403 to 40186.6) while LA County population increased by a whopping 15.9% (from 8863052 to 10275914 according to http://www.laalmanac.com/population/po24a.htm). Even though there are more people driving their cars and the total miles are increasing, 'miles per person' actually decreased over that period.

[Spokker]

The focus on the ads should be about increasing mobility in our region. All this stuff about reducing asthma, safety, and bridges is fuzzy marketing nonsense.

Cities with extensive public transportation systems have some of the most infamous traffic headaches in the world. I was reading about Seoul's subway system AND their monster traffic jams, and their highways are toll roads. Look at New York and Tokyo for more examples.

The point isn't decreasing traffic, the point is increasing options. Those that want to sit in traffic are more than welcome to. The point is to create more options for those who are unwilling or unable to drive.