If Measure R fails, little gets built for 30 years, Villaraigosa says

Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa appeared today at the Mobility 21 conference in downtown Los Angeles. This is an annual luncheon for transit officials across the region, as well as those who work in the transportation business -- that is, contractors hoping to get a piece of the pie one day.

Villaraigosa gave a short 11-minute speech that was notable for two things: He never actually said the phrase "Measure R," although he talked about it quite a lot, and he never uttered the word "subway." Measure R is a half-cent sales tax increase proposal in Los Angeles that would provide more than $4 billion for a subway extension to the Westside.

Afterward, talking with three reporters, Villaraigosa offered a few interesting kernels. He said that the campaign for Measure R conducted a poll two weeks ago -- just after Congress approved the Wall Street bailout -- and that 73% of voters said they supported Measure R. Villaraigosa added that the 73% was reached after voters were given the arguments for Measure R. That's called a push.

The reason for the poll: "Because there was a lot of concern whether people would still be supporting this measure" after the bailout, the mayor said. "People believe the price of gasoline is up and down and know at some point it's going to go back up and they are looking at public transportation more and more."

I asked him why he didn't mention the subway -- after all, I get plenty of e-mail from readers who support the subway.

"That's the project that people most want in West Los Angeles," Villaraigosa said. "But this is a comprehensive effort to address L.A. County's traffic congestion. The subway is one project, the San Gabriel-Pasadena Gold Line is another project, the Exposition line from Culver City to Santa Monica is another project. The highway improvements that would be made, the rail safety improvements -- there are a lot of reasons that people will support this."

Then I asked Villaraigosa what's the Plan B for transportation funding if Measure R doesn't pass. After all, a lot of elected officials, particularly in the San Gabriel Valley, are opposed to Measure R because they don't think the Valley will get its fair share of tax revenues.

"If you don't pass Measure R, there will be no money for traffic improvements for the next 30 years," Villaraigosa said. "In the next 30 years, I don't expect the kind of federal investments we need in this region and ... local municipalities have always generated most of the [money for] infrastructure investments."

So then I talked to Metro Chief Executive Roger Snoble and asked the same question -- what gets built if Measure R doesn't pass?

"In looking at our 10-year forecast, we have a $2-billion deficit," Snoble said. "The reserves just aren't there."

On the transit side, he said that without Measure R, he believes that Metro can finish the first phase of the Expo Line and possibly the busway along Canoga Boulevard in the San Fernando Valley. And that's about it. There likely wouldn't be money for the second phase of the Expo Line, nor the Gold Line extension, Crenshaw Line or the subway.

And he didn't sound optimistic that the federal government would come to the rescue because the amount of money the federal government budgeted to help transit projects was about $1.6 billion in 2008 and $1.8 billion this current fiscal year. By contrast, there is about $9.6 billion in transit projects in the pipeline around the country.

Later, I spoke with David Yale, Metro's officer for regional programming and asked him the same question -- what can Metro build if Mesaure R fails. "It becomes a case of having to choose between our children," he said (by that he meant children as a metaphor for transit project). "It's going to be very difficult for the [Metro] board to do."

Yale concurred with his boss Snoble and added that four freeway projects may also be jeopardized. The big problem at the moment, he said, is that existing local sales tax revenues are in decline because of the lousy economy.

Of course, Metro and Villaraigosa have an election to win, and there's no reason for them to say that all is sunny if Measure R fails to win two-thirds approval of L.A. County voters on Nov. 4.

-- Steve Hymon

Comments

[forgotten citizen]

I am very frustrated about Mrs. Richards. she claimed she is a career bus rider. To me, her solution was living closer by express bus and carry schedule. I always live closer by 5 minutes walking distance to express bus, and i carry schedules, thomas guide, umbrella, (don't want to carry PDA). i did couple research before I take bus trek. I still get sranded all the time. Mrs. Richards is very knowledgeable since she has all archive information and pay attention to events. that is her job. However, we used our experience as guidance. We use our frustration as guidance. We know history without loooking at the archuive. We like to use our imagination and hallucination to see if there is light at the end of tunnel. We try to grasp everything, but WE ARE TOO BUSY WORKING AND CATCHING THE BUSES THAT GO NOWHERE.
To avoiding being insulted or labelled misinformation/misconclusion, i just went to MTA and metrolink. I check the metrolink schedule (just river side one that goes to city of industry), the last one stops @ 6;35. I checked the express bus schedules (49- series) the buses offer very limited services after 7pm. I did not even bother to check morning schedule. I know many people take metro link as well as 480's from SG to union station. I always wonderwhat their schedules are. Are all the jobs in downtown, Hollywood end between 3 and 5pm. Most of my jobs have working schedules betwwen 9 and 6 or 8 to 5. Some people do have to work over time (let's not complicate trasnportation people mind, i will not include those people including myself). I always wonder how people can utilize metrolink or buses if they have to leave at 6pm. If their companies is along bus routes or red/blue lines, that may be easier, or it is kamakazi mission. Further away will make taking bus challenge. Many people claim SG will use expo. yes, If the companies are within 30 minutes walking distance of expo and we work in companies that let us leave early so we can catch 6pm or earlier transits. to go to the sea, I can take 33. People may not like, but for the bus riders, that is better tthan nothing. We have to take buses no matter what
It is hallucination to have HK/NY model. It is even hallucination to have DC model. I have a dream by the time I died (2050 or 60), LA will be 1/10th of DC transit. I am not as knowledge as Richards, but I don't think that is going to happen. Exoerience told me. All the information i gather told me
Be honest with you, I do wish i can take bus/rail/etc to go to universal studio and enjoy all the rides. I doubt i can do it.
After expo is built, I wish i could go to SM beach, but I have to make sure I leave SM by 3 or 4 pm. Actuallly, when I go t o Pasadena every weekend, i make sure i leave Pasadena earlier. It is haunting experinece to take public transit. Unless it is job related, i am not taking chance. It is not MISINFORMATION. it is frustrating experience
To us, bus riders, we try to understand the plan. We try to listen. However, we care about the result. We want to see the light at the end of tunnel. if not, we want to see gradual change
For car drivers, in order for thjem to switch the mode, they need assurance taht they can get home safely. I already provided example why people don't want to take bus when they want to save the gasoline, LACK OF CONNECTION. My friend lives in Mar vista has struggle so hard to find a bus to go to Torrance. he wanted to boycot the oil companies. He could not. he probably has to drive after Expo is built. Some people mentioned 20% will go to bus improvement. I don't think that is enough to improve the situation.
TV ads mention this is like freeway projects in the 50's and 60's. I don't buy it. MTA and public relation has to prove instead just biting back on us. Prove to us this will be. Bus rdiers don't have to wish they have enough money to buy cars. Car drivers can feel comfortable taking transit. Instead asking people to count the head (Ms. Richards, compare with DC, the number of heads is much less ). do a better planning.

[Kymberleigh Richards]

Wouter van Biene tries to sound like he has all the answers, but he is apparently deficient in the history.

The service to LAX is the way it is not because of poor design but because the Airport itself foolishly blocked the Green Line from being routed to go there when it was designed and built. This was due to political pressure from the cab and shuttle van operators, who fear the availability of public transit would kill their cash cow.

You can decry the downtown hub of existing rail service all you want, but ... it works. Go down to Union Station at rush hour and watch the passengers come in on Metrolink and rush to get on the subway to go on from there. When you've had enough of watching that, take the subway three stations to 7th St/Metro Center and watch the crowds there connecting between the subway and the Blue Line. (And be sure to note how many people get off at the two downtown stations between Union and 7th.)

Then get back on the subway and watch the passenger flow on and off at L.A. City College, Holllywood, and the Valley. Try counting the passengers that get off at North Hollywood Station; you'll lose count before they've all rushed past you.

The extension of the subway makes sense precisely because of the downtown hub, because people have chosen to live out in the suburbs but still work in the Miracle Mile, Century City, or Santa Monica. Do you realize that 22% of the projected new ridership of the subway extension will come from residents of the San Gabriel Valley?

Here's another reality check for you: Those shopping centers that you expect people to be able to drive to in order to ride your horrendously long "radial line" aren't going to let people park there if they aren't customers. Your idea has been tried, again and again, ever since the days of commuter buses in the 1970s. I can cite you dozens of examples where park-ride lots were kicked out of shopping center parking lots.

Speaking of shopping centers, the vast majority of those who shop at them are disinclined to use public transit, because they don't want to wrestle with carrying their multiple purchases on transit.

Measure R, despite what you see "in your mind", is basing a project list on demonstrated need. Your plan reminds me of the ones proposed in the 1960s and 1970s by the late Baxter Ward, who envisioned a lot of travel to destinations that, in reality, the public didn't see the need to build rapid transit to. In contrast, the need for the subway to the Westside (to UCLA!) is a proven one, and the only rational way to create a network of service is to find the proven needs and fill them.

I'm sorry if that insults your ordered mind, but your remarks prove you do not understand public transportation planning well enough to present an argument which stands up to scrutiny.

The Measure R plan may not be perfect, but nothing is perfect in this world, and I see the logic in what is proposed, even if you do not. This is a plan that will work for Los Angeles because it is based on the needs of Los Angeles rather than something someone imagined without any basis in fact.

[jeremy]

oh and:
"Irvine Spectrum, via UCI, South Coast Plaza, Westminster, Cal State Long Beach downtown Long Beach, The Del Amo Mall in Torrance, The Galeria Mall in Redondo to LAX. Then onwards to Culver City, UCLA/ Westwood and through the mountains to the Valley to the shopping centers in Woodland Hills, crossing the Metro Link and finishing at Cal Sate Northridge."

you mean something like this?
http://www.flickr.com/photos/godblessbotox/2902470224/in/set-72157603993144591/
[LACMTA harbor subdivision]

[jeremy]

Wouter van Biene,
the reason you see metro maps fallowing some haphazard lines shooting out from down town is that with no money coming from any place metro is forced to use existing rights of way. which here in los angeles mean old abandon railroads.
which in there heyday were designed to move things from around the county to downtown and out.

voting no on this plan because you dont like the look of the maps is simply shooting yourself in the foot. the only way metro will be able to make anything is with this sales tax increase.

this plan is not a global EIR, it is a funding mechanism for projects. specific routing will be designed when the projects come online. now is not that time. without measure R. that time may never come.

in regards to hong kong, it is much easier to plan a transportation system for an area that is 426 sq m [hong kong] then it is for 4,752 sq mi [los angeles]

[Wouter van Biene]

Proposition R supports a transportation plan that is ill-conceived. Let me preface my comments that I lived for many years in Europe and in Hong Kong, where I enjoyed using well developed and effective public transportation systems.

In order for public transportation to be successful, it has to attract riders. And in order to attract riders the system needs to a) go where people want and need to go and b) offer a transportation frequency that limits waiting times to ten minutes or less. (During Rush Hour in Hong Kong, you can catch any train at any station every two minutes, during off peak times every four minutes. It is faster to take the train than to hail a taxi.).

In looking at the map underlying Prop R, we see a network design that is terrible. For one, the network is is exclusively "Down Town Centric". All lines are spokes towards (ad from) downtown, nothing is radial. Any transportation setup involving a large population center needs to have radial elements in addition to spokes to eliminate the need to travel great distances to cover a short geographical distance.

Additionally the Plan looks hap hazard with various little spurs and connectors, rather than a broad approach to solve a problem. Look at the design around LAX! All kinds of little fixes in stead of rerouting the Green line into :LAX and then interconnecting with train service going North-South under LAX.

In my mind, we need to rework the transportation plan at a minimum with a radial line that runs from Irvine Spectrum, via UCI, South Coast Plaza, Westminster, Cal State Long Beach downtown Long Beach, The Del Amo Mall in Torrance, The Galeria Mall in Redondo to LAX. Then onwards to Culver City, UCLA/ Westwood and through the mountains to the Valley to the shopping centers in Woodland Hills, crossing the Metro Link and finishing at Cal Sate Northridge. Please note that many of the major stopping off points are Malls. They are all destinations that many people travel to every day. These sites also have an advantage that they already have large parking facilities, so that people can travel to these areas by car and continue by public transportation. Including our universities in these plans will allow for a strong ridership of people who can ill afford to drive and alleviates all the parking problems we see today at places like UCLA. It also assures high levels of ridership, which will allow us to run the trains with enough of a frequency to make it attractive to all. And airports are a natural: It is one of the few places where all users are changing transportation mode (from wheels to wings and wings to wheels). This is where the offering of a well designed Public Transportation system will have a big impact, provided we offer direct and frequent service to destinations that travelers desire.

Unless and until our Public Transportation planners put plans on the map that make sense and avoid the fritter process where one has to change transportation mode one or more times to reach a common destination from a common departure point (such as Downtown to LAX or LAX to the West Side or the Valley) public transportation in LA is doomed and will not yield any return on the investment we are being asked to make.

In short vote NO to THIS transportation plan and demand a plan that will work for Los Angeles.

[John]

Measure R is not a perfect Plan by any means. I don't see any meaningful plan for San Fernando Valley. Have you seen 405 and the 101? However, I'll take any lousy plan from these lousy leaders. Westside subway is a must! SGV should stop bickering because this project will result in cleaner air for all of us, less demand for gasoline and will create thousands of jobs for a long time to come.

[N_C]

I'm voting yes. A world class city should have a world class transportation system. This is a step in that direction.

[Bill A'Hearn]

Suddenly, after years of NIMBYism, LA wants rail. Inspite of this (NIMBYism), LA has the Subway, the Expo Line, & the Valley Busway. Meanwhile the SGV got the Gold Line, and has wanted the extension built for years. Heck, they were talking about it before the initial line was completed.

We are entering a recession, and sales tax revenues will be down. I have little faith that the available money won't end up going towards Villaraigosa's projects.

So, I'm sticking to my no vote. Sorry.

[Ken Alpern]

The BIG question here: Will those political leaders opposing this measure fight like heck to NOT accept the money for projects in their area because they don't like this?

If this passes, and late this year or early next year we're funding the Gold Line to Azusa, will the SGV politicians fight to oppose that, too?

...I didn't think so...sheesh...

[TrafficBulldog]

Ah, geez more taxes?

But, we already can't afford to operate the equipment we have now.

How about we legalize refueling at home. You know oil prices got us into this economic mess, how about we make it legal to refuel your vehicle with electricity, natural gas, or hydrogen at home.

No more money for roads until they do that.

Cause if they aren't going to do that, then we have likely peaked with our transportation needs/costs.

http://trafficbulldog.org has a plan to revive the American Economy...and it involves getting clear of the pumps.

[JDRCRASH]

I may be a West Covina resident, but even I can see that not voting in favor for this proposition is a huge mistake, not only to commuters, as well as small businesses, especially in this economic time....but the environment as well. By voting NO, you are in effect delivering yourself many more years of not only traffic congestion, but air congestion.

So.........PLEASE VOTE YES ON MEASURE R FOR ALL OUR SAKES!!!!!

[SM]

Measure R is very important because LA County will only continue to grow and we need to build smarter. Adding more subways to this city will help not just los angeles but the valley also, and this improvement will not only help people that live in the area, but people that live in other areas and don't want to be stuck 2 to 3 hours to get to work.

[Dana Gabbard]

That poll is a sign R has excellent prospects. The opposition is disorganized, has no campaign (or funding) and basically consists of disgruntled pariochial usual suspects. I welcome the chance to reject the selfish politics they represent and embrace a regional vision that isn't just about "what is in it for me"?

[Matt]

Not sure where some of this misinformation is coming from. The Gold Line extension will be built before the subway extension under this measure so this jumping the line business has no merit.

Also, it is ironic because the SGV seems so upset when they tried to jump the line ahead of the Expo line to get funding for their project when it was clear in the long range plan of the region that the Expo Line was a priority over the Gold Line due to its much higher ridership and lack of alternatives such as the San Gabriel Valley's Metrolink system which is not available in that part of the County. In reading the measure there seems to be a lot to benefit areas that are complaining from a freeway and road standpoint, while I see little to none of that in Los Angeles. People trying to smear this seem to say it is just for the subway, but in reading the measure that makes up just a very small portion of the Funds so this is very disappointing to hear.

Finally, many SGV residents commute to jobs in that part of the county and are begging for rapid transit here so it is pretty sad that they are going to be left out in the cold because of their own political leaders spreading some misinformation.

[BOB2]

So Measure R gets 73% with the push questions? This tells me it has the same 60-65% base support it had in June, with no opposition. Sorry not enough for the two thirds? And, did they test the oppositions messages? This measure was poorly developed, poorly planned, and the lack of effective consensus building has lead to significant opposition. So what is plan B? And, the Mayor's campaign is based on fear mongering? Heckuva a job?

[Andy]

Bill: I understand the frustration, but it seems pretty clear that the county cannot continue to do nothing, otherwise we're just digging ourselves into a bigger hole.

I'm not sure I understand why people are so skeptical the allocated funds of Measure R for the Gold Line Extension will be diverted elsewhere.

[J]

Wait in line? The Westside and particularly the Wilshire Corridor HAVE been waiting in line. They were first slated to get a subway in 1980, not to mention Wilshire subway plans dating back to the 1920's. After decades of delays and suspensions, the Westside, the region most in need of transit improvements and the region without ANY rail, is finally able to get something. Yet the mere possibility that the Westside MIGHT get something causes everyone else in the county to cry foul. (sigh)

[John Q TaxPayer]

Oh, sure, the sky is falling.
These are the same clowns that told us if we didn't "reduce" our phone tax via Prop S, that they'd have to lay off police and firemen.

Sorry guys, Prop R is not going to be rammed down our throats.

If you want to propose YET ANOTHER sales tax increase, in the name of mass transit, then you'd better take the time to assemble a package that we all can support. As it is written, this proposal asks me to pay for 30+ years without a dime coming back to my community. Normally, I wouldn't even balk at contributing to a county-wide improvement project that doesn't benefit us directly, but we were promised a major piece from day one, and it has been rescinded.

R was put together by the very same people that have blown every opportunity to develop real transit in LA for the last 30+ years - the same folks that killed the Red Line three times (the valley extension, the wilshire extension, and the eastside extension), that killed off Expo, made the Blue Line run at-grade, de-automated the Green Line, sacrificed the ROW's in Venice, on Sepulveda and Santa Monica Boulevards, and who keep championing their "rapid buses" as some form of monumental achievement, as if they were any faster than limited stop service.

Let these geniuses go back to the drawing board for two years and try again.

[Bill A'Hearn]

Sorry, but I'm voting no. After screwing over the SG Valley on the extension of the Foothill Gold Line. No way. Heck, we had to take the Gold Line away from MTA to get it built in the first place. And now the westside wants in, and a subway to boot? Too bad, get in back of the line and wait your turn!

[tiptop]

Countywide leadership? Gag me with spoon. These magnanimous statements are only be made because the push poll told them to say it that way.

[Kymberleigh Richards]

J -

What kind of rhetoric is that? "Little gets built in 30 years"?

30 years of that tax revenue can be used to leverage federal and state funds, as they become available over that 30 year period, to build all the projects on the list.

Or are you skeptical that the funds will actually be used for the projects? Because if you are, you need to realize that the state law that allowed this measure to appear on the ballot mandates those projects be built. These aren't funds that can be raided, like the Governor and Legislature has with the sales tax on gasoline.

======

Dale,

Sure, there could be a later measure, but all the political analysts say this election is the best chance to get a mix of voters that is likely to approve it.

If you know anything of our region's history, you'll know that transportation measures, once defeated by the voters, take a full ten years to become viable again, due to voter skepticism about measures that are brought back after failure to win approval in a previous election.

The Mayor knows this as well as any of us, and he also knows as well as any of us that this has to be passed ... NOW.

[Dale]

Yeah, as if MTA and Antonio would not bring back another sales tax measure ASAP if Measure R fails!! Give me a break. What, are we cancelling all future elections?

[J in Pasadena]

Also, if it gets passed, little gets built in 30 years. So what's the difference?

[Ken Alpern]

I'm glad that the Mayor is pursuing this like a Countywide leader, which is far more than the Board of Supes can say right now.

Whether they're in favor of, or in opposition to, this Proposition I'm not seeing much of a cohesive countywide advocacy on the part of the Board.

Hopefully, whether this passes or fails it can lead to greater discussion and planning for countywide cohesion. This has never been about one project, be it the Wilshire Subway or the Foothill Gold Line--it should be what's best for the county and its commuters.