Ramping up, July 30: bridge safety and Portland mass transit

Good morning, Bottleneckers. I'm back from a couple days off and will resume posting regularly today. That's Portland's relatively new gondola  shown at right. More on that below. 

Bridges hold up

Although Tuesday's quake was smaller than some recent big ones in California, the region's road infrastructure held up well. Caltrans has completed seismic upgrades to many state bridges, but fixes are still needed for many bridges owned by cities and counties in the state. Perhaps the best-known here is the 6th Street Bridge that crosses the Los Angeles River east of downtown.

Sales tax initiative

While the Metro board last week approved an ordinance to go to the November ballot with a half-cent sales tax increase, a companion bill, AB 2321, must still be approved by the Legislature that allows the initiative to go forward. The next stop for the bill is in the State Senate's Appropriations Committee on Monday. Four of the 15 senators on the committee are from the Southland, including Gil Cedillo, Sheila Kuehl, Jenny Oropeza and Mark Ridley-Thomas. Metro specifically changed the spending plan to placate Cedillo and Oropeza. Much more on this throughout the week.

Today in gas prices

Prices continue to drop or hold steady. The Chevron station in Pasadena that I'm obsessed with has been sitting at $4.43 for a gallon of regular gasoline since last Friday, but the average price in other parts of the state has dropped, according to AAA, and the price of a gallon of regular is below $4.20 in parts of the San Joaquin and Sacramento valleys.

The big question is at what price of gasoline do Americans begin shifting back to driving more? If you peruse these statistics from May 2008 at the U.S. Department of Transportation website, it's easy to see that the number of miles driven by Americans really began dropping in November -- when the price of gasoline in the state was averaging about $3.23 to $3.39 a gallon. Gas had actually been more expensive earlier in 2007 and the price dropped in January of this year, but the fact is people started driving less in November.

The best guess here is that a confluence of economic circumstances caused the drop. Ideas anyone?

Portland transit

I was in Portland, Ore., the last few days, and it's intriguing to see all that the city is doing on the transportation and planning front. They even have a gondola as part of their transit package and the number of people cycling around town is impressive. In recent years, several Los Angeles officials have visited there to see if there are any lessons they can bring home to L.A. I'll post some photos, statistics and impressions from my trip soon.

--Steve Hymon

Photo: Steve Hymon / Los Angeles Times

Comments

[Susan]

Just got into town with the station I am obsessed with--drum roll, please:

3.63

YAY

[Susan]

Susan in Texas is happy too! College Station is down to 3.71 at Wal Mart (though money grubbers at Exxon on the corner are still holding at 3.98). I'll be back in Tyler tomorrow and expect my local station to be in the 3.60-something?

[BOB2]

I'd certainly support a gondola between Chinatown and Dodger Stadium, but don't forget how McCourt made his fortune? Paid Parking!

The November fluctuation in mileage does not appear to be very statistically significant. Normal ranges of variations in the estimation methodlology or even a change in the timing of Thanksgiving can account for a variation like that. Long term trends based upon large samples of good data are needed to estimate the cause of such changes. Clearly multiple data sources over the last six months confirm a strong gasoline effect on overall driving.

The run up in fuel prices in Spring of 07 did, in fact, result in less mileage driven in May of 07 according to Caltrans own PeMS data. PeMS is Caltrans very robust freeway data monitoring system. There was a presentation on this last year that showed this decline quite clearly.

Gas prices are not the only factor affecting mileage or transit use. Metro and Metrolink both have problems with inadequate service levels, overcrowding ,and lack of parking, resulting in less growth, than would otherwise be the case. Rail Transit ridership ,as reported to Federal Transit Administration, and transit in general, has been rising in this region since 02-03,. So this recent uptick in transit has been part of a longer term trend. Quality and quantity of travel substitutes significantly affects travel behavior choices.

Numerous studies and trials show most people adapt to higher fuel prices initially by using more efficient vehicles first. If one has a Hummer and a Prius, one logically takes the Prius, next comes less optional driving, then comes exploringl transit for certain types of trips or too transit "friendly" locations. These all change the relative access tradeoffs to different locations, affecting our real estate market, if the conditions persist, over a significant period.

[Rebekah Wright]

I think it's result of a rise in everyday expenses (groceries) and standstill or decline in incomes (with some employers holding back on raises.) Or worse, job loss or home foreclosure. It is much easier to cut back on gas than food or housing. Most people I know have been in a financial pinch for a while. The huge increase in gas prices this year is just the cherry on top of an already miserable economic year.

[Spence]

Let's install a gondola that runs from Union Station to Dodger's Stadium. How rad would that be?

[Morgan Wick]

So you're suggesting the decline in driving has more to do with the general economic slump than with high gas prices per se?