Villaraigosa says that subway could break ground in 2012

In a radio interview today with my colleague Patt Morrison on KPCC, Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa said that a subway extension to the Westside could break ground as early as 2012 or '13.

Where does that number come from?

It's based on five big 'ifs,' namely:

Late summer 2008: MTA staff releases an alternative study recommending a subway extension and a route. Likelihood of happening: Very good.

Fall 2008: The MTA board, under its new chairman (that is, Villaraigosa), commences environmental studies. Likelihood of happening: Good.

November 2008: Voters in Los Angeles County approve a half-penny sales tax increase to fund more road and transit projects, including a subway extension. It should be noted that the Legislature and the MTA board still must vote to go forward with the sales tax. Likelihood of happening: So-so.

Late 2010: Environmental study work wraps up, design work begins. Likelihood of happening: not bad, if you believe government runs on time more than MTA buses.

2012 or 2013: construction begins. Likelihood of happening: Depends on the above.

There's likely a sixth 'if' involving the federal government kicking in some money for the project. It should be said that none of that is implausible -- particularly if the will of the people and political will is there.

But it's also fair to label the mayor's projection as optimistic. What happens if community groups along the way start filing lawsuits? Of if a den of live mastodons is discovered under the La Brea tarpits.

Of course, as Chris Berman likes to say on ESPN, "That's why they play the game."

--Steve Hymon

Photo: City of Los Angeles

Comments

[Dan W.]

"Also, even if people west of the 405 are more reluctant to use the subway (nothing more than a guess on the previous writer's part), his argument ignores the fact that lots of people from other parts of Southern California would use the new subway to commute TO Santa Monica and other areas west of the 405."

--------------------------

This is a great point. The Purple Line is not just about taking Westsiders downtown. The Westside is increasingly a job center in its own right.

[Rick Moskowitz]

>>

Setting too many priorities simultaneously is the equivalent of setting none at all. Perhaps some day, we will have subways from the Westside to Van Nuys, on Vermont south of Wilshire, out Whittier Blvd., and the like. But we can only do so much at once, and all the experts say the Wilshire and Santa Monica Blvd. lines would have the highest ridership, get the most traffic off the streets, etc. Let's build the most important ones first, and get them done as soon as possible. If we prioritize Wilshire and Santa Monica Blvds., and secure adequate funding, it should not be necessary to wait until 2012 to begin construction.

Also, even if people west of the 405 are more reluctant to use the subway (nothing more than a guess on the previous writer's part), his argument ignores the fact that lots of people from other parts of Southern California would use the new subway to commute TO Santa Monica and other areas west of the 405. Building the extension all the way to the ocean would increase ridership on all of the other existing lines as well. None of the other routes that the earlier post suggests should have higher priority would have anything like this kind of potential. Does anyone seriously think that as many people commute from other parts of Southern California to Van Nuys or Whittier or South Vermont, as do to Santa Monica, Brentwood, and other Westside areas west of the 405? I doubt it's even close.

[russell]

This is a joke, right? Break ground in 2012? It should be celebrating its third year of service in 2012!

That is what I call ambitious leadership.

[Dan W.]

"All those out farther west of the 405 are wealthy, will not use the train as much, have the Expo line a mile south of Wilshire at Pico, and are not a priority."

----------------

This is total caca.

There are lots of working class and middle class people west of the 405 in Santa Monica and West Los Angeles, walking distance to the propsed transit stops, not to mention environmentally friendly folks too.

It's one thing to argue that getting all the way to the beach is not as high a priority as other projects, but this poster has mischaracterized the area west of the 405.

There needs to be a project that connects the Valley and the Westside to LAX, but that is best done as a separate project.

[Art]

Although i applaud the mayor's enthusiasm and ability to package this project in a cute label, I must note any subway down wilshire built past UCLA/405 should be priotritized behind several other rail projects. Get it to Westwood 405, and make the next segment up the 405 and into the valley to connect to Van Nuys. All those out farther west of the 405 are wealthy, will not use the train as much, have the Expo line a mile south of Wilshire at Pico, and are not a priority. Build heavy rail down Vermont south of Wilshire, Build heavy rail through SE DTLA, down Whittier Blvd in East LA.

[Earth Linkg]

Amazing. 3rd World companies can assemble good rail systems for urban areas in a matter of years, but in the US -- decades. I hope gas goes up to $10/gallon!

[Ray]

@ John... With all respect, I think we've all been very patient... History is clear... there are assets probably worth surfacing... and potential taxpayer dollars worth saving. Has the fabric of the city changed that much in 20 years on the west-side? Maybe and then again, maybe not. Pork barrel funds for hoards of consultants and more cannon fodder for the nay-sayers and nimby set... From Wikipedia:

In 1980 voters passed Proposition A, a half-cent sales tax for a regional transit system. The measure succeeded after proposals in 1968 and 1974 had failed. The map that accompanied the initiative showed ten transit corridors with the Wilshire subway line the "cornerstone" of the system, according to former SCRTD planning director Gary Spivak. County Supervisor Kenneth Hahn was one of the key supporters of the proposition, declaring, "I'm going to put the trains back."[4] Hahn ensured that his South Los Angeles district received the first dollars for a light-rail line on the old Long Beach Red Car route from Los Angeles to Long Beach, after seeing the success of the San Diego Trolley. (This would become the Blue Line.)

In 1985, affluent area residents, fueled by elitism and prejudice joined in a well-organized coalition of homeowner groups opposing the project.

On September 11, 1985, Congressman Waxman added an amendment to that year's Federal Transportation Budget removing all subway construction funds, citing safety concerns after an unrelated methane explosion in the Fairfax District.[5]

By 1986, thanks in part to last minute lobbying by RTD president Nick Patsaour, compromise was reached between Waxman and Representative Julian Dixon. The deal allowed funding to go through as long as it did not pass through the Wilshire corridor. With a Wilshire corridor alignment prohibited, the Red Line was reprioritized and routed north up Vermont, the next highest projected ridership corridor, to Hollywood. Because of the change in alignment, there is now a 1-mile (1.6 km) stub on Wilshire between Vermont and Western.[6]

Where's the old plan to take it Santa Monica... Completely invalid?

[Dana Gabbard]

Ah, Rob Dawg, statewide Propsition 1 for the bullet train bond only needs a majority vote to pass. And overthe years it has polled well. Plus so far there is no organized opposition. The L.A. sales tax and it may play off each other, as the state bond includes $950 million for connecting regional rail services and could help fund the Foothill extension of the Gold Line, more Metrolink etc.

[Jen]

2012, 2013...sounds so far away at first. That's because we are remembering what it was like to play with our calculators when we were kids trying to figure out what year it would be when we turned 30.

2012 is one presidential term away...right?

[Jody Litvak]

I'd like to invite anyone and everyone to follow along and participate in the official study that is a necessary requirement before any project can receive funding or get built. Please go to the study website at www.metro.net/westside. You will find all the information from the study since we began last Fall. Please also click on "Contact Us" to tell us what you think and let us know how to contact you. That way we'll let you know when we're ready to go out with our next round of meetings. You can also follow along with more frequent updates and discussion at our Facebook Group, "Metro Westside Extension."

Thanks,

Jody and the Metro Westside Extension Study Team

[Alan Fishel]

Maybe we should start thinking outside the box. We all know the need for the Subway to the Sea and we know it is going to get funded and built. The question is when?

We have the two tunnel boring machines from the First Street tunnels from the Gold Line. Why not start boring the subway tunnels NOW from Western Ave toward Santa Monica under Wilshire.

The expensive parts of subway construction are the stations and utility relocation not the actual tunnel construction. The dirt could be removed through the current tunnels in gondolas at night after operating hours to the Metro Shop area and taken by the BNSF tracks to be dumped as land fill. How expensive would the boring and lining the tunnels with concrete be? The line could be moving west a few yards a day while funding is put together. This is also the most time consuming part of building the line. With this type of construction there would not have to be any disturbance on the surface until the stations start construction.

When the line is funded their can be many miles of tunnels already completed and then station construction can start. This could take years off the total construction time to build this much needed line. This would also lend creditability and interest to the line and show all that “something” is happening now.

Alan

[Gary K.]

I really hope it happens. However I'm saddened because the first time I heard of this project they were projecting if it started then, it would be finished around 2013. Now maybe it will be started by then.

[John]

@Ray

NYC still has the same subway lines 100 years after building them, so I maybe a few years of study to make sure this thing is built right aren't a waste. I'm as impatient as you are, but a screwed-up system would blow support for future lines and also be more costly in the long run.

[Devil's Advocate]

A heavy rail line through the densest and most congested corridor around? What a radical concept. The time is now.

[Dan W.]

"How about a metro line running up and down the 405!"

-------------------------

It's not either/or.

We do need a line connecting the Valley and the Westside from Sylmar to LAX.

However, we need it to hook into the Purple Line, Expo Line, Green Line, and a light-rail Orange Line for it to be fully effective.

If you want such a rail project, be sure an let Metro know. They still don't take travel between the Valley and the Westside seriously.

[Luka]

How about a metro line running up and down the 405!

[Rob Dawg]

You are assuming the "Ha'Penny for Pork" sales tax increase is enough to cover the LA County share of the costs. Chances of that; slim to none.

Politically whatever Measure is assigned it is going to be down ballot from the $0b choo-choo Proposition 1 and is therefor likely to exaust voters. If anything the two will drag each other down in the region/sub-regions where each needs a supermajority to pass.

[Ray]

Yes, Mr. Baldwin, it does take money to operate the NYC subway system. Carrying 5 million passengers a day, in over 6,000 subway cars, across nearly 850 miles of track, stopping at over 450 stations for an average of $1.67 per ride will surely require a subsidy. (That's the average fare for a monthly Metrocard holder - incredible isn't it!). The moral of the story LA? Take care of what you have as you build new infrastructure. NY is playing catch up after a few generations of 'neglect'. We'll get there.

[Ray]

Let's just say I'm encouraged. Yet, one wonders if its time to make structural changes to get things moving faster. Today it has been three years since this very pro-transit mayor was sworn into office. During those three years the mayor has been chairman of the transit agency. The mayor's party controls the legislature, the county board of supervisors and the city council. One might say a perfect storm of enablers.

Yet the only thing Angelinos have so far on transit infrastructure is a "verbal reference" to a possible ground-breaking date for a conceptual subway line (that's still being studied). That date is four or five years away (with many "ifs" hanging over it).

Do you really want this?

[Tom A.]

Anyone else find it ironic that the Gold Line Foothill Extension could have been up and running as far as Azusa for a couple of years by then (with work on the Azusa to Montclair leg well underway)? No? Just me? Oh well. I guess that old saying "A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush" is just a bunch of malarkey.

[Robert Baldwin]

Let's also hope that Angelenos don't find out what a massive cash sewer a typical municipal subway system is. I live in NYC and depend on the subway here, but it visible wastes much of the money that goes into it. Pack yourselves into one of our sardine cars and take one of the "express" trains that average 17mph on a good day - or any day when they're running. Check out the maintenance crew, and I'll give you $10 if you can find more than 1 of 10 actually doing work. That's among those visible to the public - the white collar folks at HQ probably dig beaurocratic holes to be filled in with dollars.

Hey ... why don't you just take our subway? It's the "best in the nation".

[Stephen]

Looking forward to our wonderful friends in Beverly Hills nickel and diming this project with lawsuits to keep the rest of 'us' away. In addition to hiring a security consultant from Israel for LAX, perhaps he needs to hire the contracting firm for the subway extention from there as well.

[sammy]

The US built the transcontinental railroad during the Civil War. We should be building urban infrastructure with as much urgency. Because the need is so great, we should pull back on the ability for citizens and public interest groups to pursue lawsuits fighting the projects. We should also hire undocumented workers, to help defray the costs. There's a precedent there, again with the railroad: Chinese workers were paid much less than the whites who did the same work. I'd rather undocumented workers build a subway than some private contractor's new condominium complex.

[Dan W.]

Where there is a will, there is a way.

After the 1994 earthquake, the 10 Freeway was rebuilt sooner than anyone expected.

Let's summon up the will to complete this most important of public transit projects in Los Angeles Coiunty.

[Tony Fernandez]

Lol, a den of live mastadons. Hilarious.

2012, we're not so far away . . .