Reality Check: The Orange Line miracle

  There is no question the Orange Line busway is doing well in terms of riders (23,000 daily riders in March -- a level the MTA predicted it would not be reached until 2020). But there are some caveats to the boast that the line is shattering ridership projections. Back in 2005, The Times' Caitlin Liu noted that MTA decided to go with lower ridership projections with the Orange Line when compared to other mass transit systems like the Gold Line. Officials at the time said they were not trying to lowball the numbers but rather based the numbers on computer modeling. Clearly, the modeling was off. Caitlin noted at the time than the MTA had been stung when the Gold and Green lines turned out to have far fewer riders than the projections.

See all of Caitlin's ridership story by hitting the "continue reading" key.

What do you think about the MTA's projections? Does the Orange Line's numbers suggest good things from the Expo Line and Subway to the Sea? Hit COMMENT and speak out!

MTA Sees Success in Orange Line
* Busway use is much higher than projections. But some say estimates were set cautiously low and that the numbers are misleading.

Home Edition, California, Page B-1
Metro Desk
25 inches; 873 words

SEE CORRECTION APPENDED

--- START OF CORRECTION ---

For The Record

Los Angeles Times   Saturday November 26, 2005
Home Edition  Main News  Part A  Page 2  National Desk
1 inches;  36 words
Type of Material: Correction

  Gold Line -- An article in Monday's California section about
transit ridership said the eastern terminus of the Gold Line was
Sierra Madre. The light rail line ends at the Sierra Madre Villa
station in Pasadena.

--- END OF CORRECTION ---

By Caitlin Liu, Times Staff Writer

Three weeks after the Orange Line opened in the San Fernando Valley, transportation officials are already hailing the busway as a big success: They originally projected 5,000 to 7,000 riders each weekday, but the line is attracting 10,000 to 12,000.

But transit experts said it's far too early for the Los Angeles County Metropolitan Transportation Authority to declare victory.

Some are quick to point out that the ridership projections for the Orange Line were radically lower than those for several other of the MTA's transit systems. For example, the light rail Gold Line, which runs from downtown Los Angeles to Sierra Madre, was projected to have 38,000 weekday boardings this year (it's actually running far below that, at about 15,000).

Another key point is whether Orange Line riders are motorists abandoning their cars to use mass transit or riders of other bus lines who switched to the busway. MTA officials said they didn't know the answer to that yet and were conducting ridership surveys to find out.

"We can't know for certain whether real ridership has gone up or down," said Brian Taylor, director of UCLA's Institute of Transportation Studies. "They may not be new riders to the service."

One indicator may lie in the Orange Line's parking facilities, most of which remain largely empty. The five parking lots along the route, which offer a combined 3,200 spaces, have been only about 20% occupied, according to the agency -- suggesting that many, if not most, of the passengers are existing transit riders simply switching from another bus line.

"I think their projections are noise ... largely meaningless," said James E. Moore II, director of USC's transportation engineering program. "They got burned and are feeling embarrassed about the Gold Line, and they didn't want that to happen with the Orange Line."

MTA officials denied that they lowballed Orange Line ridership predictions but conceded that their forecasts might be more art than science.

"We didn't put it into a computer model," said Rod Goldman, the MTA's deputy executive officer for service development. "A lot of it was our educated guesswork based on our experience."

To come up with projections for the 14-mile east-west transitway, MTA employees considered ridership along parallel bus lines in the Valley. Ridership on Ventura Boulevard is about 9,000 daily boardings and Victory Boulevard's is about 8,500, Goldman said. That yielded an estimate of first-year ridership of 5,000 to 8,000 boardings a day for the Orange Line.

It's unclear why the MTA then reduced the estimate to 5,000 to 7,000, but Goldman speculated that something "got lost in the translation."

The MTA did use computer modeling for long-term projections for the Orange Line. Taking into account growth patterns, job data and census statistics, the agency predicts that the busway will draw 19,000 to 25,000 riders a day by 2020.

The $324-million Orange Line, a dedicated busway that runs from the Red Line subway station in North Hollywood west to Warner Center in Woodland Hills, is the first mass transit system that extends well into the San Fernando Valley.

"It's been so successful from a ridership point of view, they've had to add buses to the line," said county Supervisor Zev Yaroslavsky, an MTA board member who recently stood shoulder to shoulder among passengers on an Orange Line bus. "It has taken us all by surprise ... Even with added buses, they are full to the brim all the time."

But transportation experts said the real test for the busway will be whether the line gets people out of their cars and how it interacts with other transit systems such as the Red Line, which can take riders to Hollywood and downtown Los Angeles.

Officials have yet to complete studies to see whether the Orange Line is improving traffic on the 101 Freeway and nearby roads such as Ventura Boulevard.

The MTA has struggled with projections on other lines. When the Green Line opened in 1992, authorities predicted that the Norwalk-to-El Segundo rail system would attract 25,000 riders after its first year. Shortly before the light rail line opened in 1995, nervous officials revised their projection to 10,000 passenger boardings a day. Actual daily ridership after a year turned out to be 15,000. Today, the line carries 32,000 riders a day.

The MTA has done better with the Blue Line, which runs from Long Beach to downtown Los Angeles. Considered the most-used light rail line in North America, it carries 73,000 daily passengers. The Red Line subway carries about 112,000 riders a day.

Orange Line boosters say its ridership numbers are impressive even if most of those on board switched from other buses.

"Ridership is key....Once they see something that'll move them faster, they'll gravitate toward it," said Kymberleigh Richards, a transit advocate and vice chairwoman of the MTA's bus board for the San Fernando Valley. "If people are transferring to it and riding it, they see value in it."

But USC's Moore is not convinced.

"A full train is not necessarily a victory," he said, citing how rail ridership rose after the MTA axed cheaper bus lines serving the same route. "That thinking ignores the trade-off. How many other bus lines have you given up to make way for the Orange Line?"

Descriptors: METRO ORANGE LINE; LOS ANGELES COUNTY METROPOLITAN TRANSPORTATION AUTHORITY; PASSENGERS; STATISTICS; FORECASTS

Comments

[metro man]

The orange line, like LA fashion, is a temporary solution to the decades old problem. yes rider-ship is great 23k, but the demographic is still majority working class and 10-20% business. We will never clear the freeways or our busy SFV street with a band-aid solution. Per usual, the bus line was an attempt to make the usual politicians look good in the face of crowded traffic systems. A longer term solution with an eye to our future would have passed the light rail or the redline extension. Stop slapping ourselves on the back and lets revitalize the red car days. Efficient, timely, rapid transit, not temporary, short sided, band-aids for political gain. I challenge all those egomaniacs with their fancy, expensive, trophy cars to get on the metro and make LA a real city. If everyone would stop complaining about the traffic and actually did something to take a bite out of the congestion, collectively we could change our local traffic problems. Oh, by the way, lets get rid of the "honor" system. Who exactly are we kidding? We are loosing far to much profit for later development with the current "honor" system. Surf Metro, it's a lifestyle!!

[Tom A.]

The only reason the Green and Gold lines haven't met their ridership projections is because they haven't been extended into LAX and beyond East Pasadena, respectively. Build them to where they need to go and watch the ridership figures skyrocket.

[Bob Zwolinski]

I’m sure that if the Orange line was built as its originally designed mode, as a westward extension of the red line subway, the ridership would be double than it is today. Well, at least the valley has something instead of a local bus crawling on surface streets. I’m glad it’s doing well, even though the actual initial ridership figures were lowballed. I just wish it was rapid transit, rather than a bus that takes over 40 minutes to go only 14 miles.

As for MTA’s projected patronage on the Expo Line and the westward extension(s) of the Wilshire subway, I’m sure the trains will be packed to the gills on opening day and stay that way long after the initial thrill is gone. They’ll be the only way to get around town with the way our gridlock situation is growing.

[Shaun]

These high ridership numbers are great news and even further proof this Orange Lines is going ot have to be made into a rail extenstion of the red line. Buses can only carry so many people b/c they are much smaller than a train and require more drivers to carry the same amount of people as a single train with one operator could. MTA really needs to start looking into extending the Red Line down this right of way in the future b/c the Orange Line will become a victim of its own success if it gets too crowded for people to use. Light rail is a bad idea b/c a mid line terminus just kills ridership and is a bad idea in any transit system. Elevate or put it in an open trench but just extend the Red Line b/c it's the only mode of transit that will get people out of their cars in significant numbers.

[kp]

meh, I smell a troll at L.A. Times. Nothing like dragging out another quote from Prof. Moore to spook up pro-rail comments. Nice try.

[Richard H]

Bus lines should be compared to other bus lines not rail lines. How does the Orange line compare to say the ridership on the Wilshire Blvd. buses, or the Ventura Blvd. buses? Even the El Monte busway which doubles as a car pool lane?

If the Orange line were a lite rail line instead of a busway, the ridership would be mediocre, ok for line that just started but nothing great. If this were a 14 mile extension of the Red Line (as this route was promised to be back in the early 1990’s), 23,000 riders per day would be considered disastrously poor ridership.

I think the most significant thing is that the buses are already running at near capacity. Could bus ridership on the Orange line be increased to 40,000 as is possible on the Green line? Or 70,000, as currently ride on the Blue line? Or 250,000 or more as would have been possible on a Red Line extension? I don’t know what the ridership would have been on Supervisor Mike Antonovich’s mythical 1992 monorail, but there are monorail lines supposedly capable of 150,000 riders a day (Disneyworld).

Very many more riders on the Orange line, and passengers will have to ride on top of the buses or hang on to the windows like they do in third world countries.