SYRIA: Back on the world stage, with a fury

It’s payback time for Syrian President Bashar Assad. Just as he prepared to move his country out of almost four years of isolation imposed by Americans and Europeans, Assad pointed out that Syria was an important player in the fight against terrorism.

Even the French, who shunned Damascus for years, now acknowledge that developing relations with Syria was "in favor of Lebanon and the region."

In an interview with the Arab daily Al Hayat published today, French official Claude Gueant said permanent solutions to Middle East's problems would not be possible without Syria's participation.

Assad is expected in France to attend a summit of European and Mediterranean countries in the next day. Recently, the Syrian president made a flurry of dovish remarks to a group of French journalists who interviewed him in his private retreat on the hills of Damascus.

One of those who interviewed Assad, Alain Gresh, editor of the French monthly publication Le Monde Diplomatique, described him as "confident, relaxed, talkative."

IRAN: American public won't allow another war, Iranian foreign ministry spokesman says

Despite constant talk of war, U.S. officials have tried to reach out to the Iranian people in an attempt to get past the animosity between Washington and Tehran.

But Iranian officials have also been on a diplomatic offensive, reaching out to ordinary people in the Middle East as well as, more modestly, to Americans.

Known for his good looks, polite manners and kindly attitude toward the media, Iran's silver-haired foreign ministry spokesman, Mohammed Ali Hosseini has emerged as a frequent public face on his government’s policies.

In a lengthy interview in his office Wednesday, he described Americans as a peace-loving people who "hate violence" and are suffering because of the mistakes of their leaders. He said he believed economic pressures, the military entanglements in Iraq and Afghanistan, and American public opinion would prevent war from breaking out between Iran and the United States. "The U.S. and the Zionist regime, thanks to the increasing economic, political, security and military crises in which they are stuck, are not logically in a position to tolerate the expenses of another massive and far-reaching crisis," Hosseini said.

He continued:

Public opinion in the world will not permit [President] Bush to exacerbate the pains and tragedies already inflicted on the nations of the region and the American people. Nowadays, the polling surveys carried out among U.S. elites, thinkers and, by and large, the American people, show they hate violence, further battles and anarchy. The surveys indicate that the Americans are seeking genuine peace, stability and security.

But he warned:

If there is a war against the Islamic Republic of Iran, it will be out of control and with unpredictable consequences. Thus, anyone with minimum rationality and political logic does not dare to step on this path.

Hosseini, 47, is a physicist by training and a career diplomat. A native of Tehran, he studied in India before joining Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs 20 years ago. He’s a family man, with a wife and three children. He sat down for an exclusive and wide-ranging interview with the Los Angeles Times about Iran’s nuclear program, U.S. relations and turmoil in Iraq, Afghanistan, Lebanon and the Palestinian territories, which have became contested terrain in the Cold War between Washington and Tehran.

Some of his answers were blunt. Asked why Iran won't suspend its controversial uranium-enrichment program for a temporary period to calm world fears and bolster Iran's diplomatic standing, he replied that Iran has "so far complied completely with its international and legal commitments and that compliance accredits our diplomatic standing."

But usually he was far more expansive, explaining Iran's positions on a number of topics, including the packages of proposals and counterproposals being bandied about by Iran and world powers to get talks started on Iran's nuclear program.

LAT: Would you consider the European "freeze-for-freeze" proposal in which Iran would stop adding new uranium-enrichment centrifuges in exchange for no new sanctions during a period of negotiations? Why or why not?

MOHAMMAD ALI HOSSEINI: Both the 5+1 incentives package and the Iranian package have valuable elements in common. If we concentrate on the common ground in the two packages, we can initiate a very serious dialogue. If diplomacy can deepen and consolidate the commonalities in the packages and create a mechanism toward confidence-building talks, without a doubt, the talks will help peace and stability in the world. Otherwise the misleading and aimless preconditions are somehow wasting time and cannot lead to settle any problems. Furthermore, there is not such a thing [as freeze-for-freeze] written in the incentives package.

SYRIA: Mum's the word on nuclear inspections

Syrian authorities probably think that it's safer to ignore the big elephant in the room.

That, at least, has been their attitude toward the United Nations nuclear inspectors who arrived to investigate claims that Damascus was secretly developing nuclear facilities.

Not only did Syrian officials keep silent about the visit, the vast majority of local newspapers did not even remotely allude to it and the state-run news agency did not even acknowledge the presence of the international experts.

Others say that foreign journalists have been banned from entering or leaving Syria these days until the inspectors are out of the country.

The International Atomic Energy Agency delegation arrived in Syria on Sunday to inspect a site in the country's northeastern desert. The U.S. alleges the site housed a nuclear reactor nearing completion. Syria had dismissed U.S. accusations about the site of Al-Kibar, which was bombed by Israel in September 2007, as a disused military facility.

SYRIA: France's Nicolas Sarkozy knocks at Damascus' gate

Washington may be turning its nose away, but France appears to be reconsidering its standoffish attitude toward Syria, long considered an associate member of George Bush's axis of evil.

France is offering turn over a new leaf with Syria and change its policy of isolating Damascus, as it has along with other European countries and the U.S.

French president Nicolas Sarkozy recently invited his Syrian counterpart Bashar Al-Assad to visit Paris July 13 to attend the French leader's Mediterranean Sea cooperation project.

On Tuesday Syrian culture minister Riad Naasam Agha began a visit to Paris, the first by a Syrian Cabinet member in the last three years.

Washington, for its part, gave no indication it was following the French lead.

SYRIA: Former U.S. diplomat's 'mission improbable' -- healing rift

When former ambassador and Occidental College international policy professor Derek Shearer, right, first told colleagues he was going to Syria as a speaker on behalf of the State Department, he was sure that even if the authorities didn't shut down his appearances, people would boycott, maybe even hold demonstrations.

But that’s not what happened, not by a long shot.

Despite frosty relations between Damascus and Washington, he was treated more like a celebrity than a graying envoy of a hostile state. He was interviewed by half a dozen Syrian media outlets, delivered six lectures to packed audiences and appeared on the front page of Syrian newspapers.

"Nobody protested my talk at the American Cultural Center, nobody broke up my meetings, nothing was canceled, and the turnout of people was always more than we expected," said Shearer, who teaches public diplomacy at Occidental in Los Angeles.

In a lengthy interview with the Los Angeles Times, Shearer said he wasn't sure why Syria allowed his visit. Only three years ago, after the imposition of U.S. sanctions on Syria. Damascus stopped permitting American-sponsored cultural activities, boycotted U.S. Embassy receptions and neglected demands for entry visas.

But relations between the two countries appear to warming. The U.S. Embassy in Damascus sponsored a well-attended jazz concert a few weeks ago and gave permission for Shearer's goodwill tour, paid for by the American government.

During his visit he spoke his mind about the Bush administration, to which he's hostile, and the government of Syrian President Bashar Assad.

Among his speaking engagements was the government-sponsored Syrian Public Relations Assn. and the Syrian Young Entrepreneurs Assn., where he told the aspiring businesspeople that their government needs to give them freer Internet access, let their country join the World Trade Organization and increase relations with the outside world.

Los Angeles Times: What brought you to Damascus?

SHEARER: You know, there is this natural tendency to think that whenever an American comes, especially sponsored by the State Department, that someone sent him with a secret agenda. I can tell you that my dear classmate, President Bush, didn't send me because as you have heard, I'm very critical of him. although I'm personally friendly.

There is a general message in that America would send people who disagree with the president around the world even if the president wouldn't like to hear what they have to say. The fact is I am part of the circle of Democratic Party thinkers...

Plus, I have a list of cities I wanted to visit before I die and always wanted to go to the best chocolate shops, and I've done that.

SYRIA: Nuclear inspectors going to Israeli strike site

Nuclear weapons inspectors are heading to Syria this month in an attempt clear up the lingering mystery about a Syrian military site bombed in an Israeli raid in September, officials announced today.

U.S. officials told lawmakers in April that the targeted site was a secret plutonium reactor being built with the help of North Korean scientists. Satellite photos suggest that Syria demolished and dismantled the site shortly after the Sept. 6, 2007, airstrike.

Today International Atomic Energy Agency Director-General Mohamed ElBaradei told his board of governors that an inspection team was heading to Syria to inspect the site from June 22 to 24.

The embattled ElBaradei has been criticized by neoconservatives in Washington as being too soft on Iran's nuclear program. After various vague explanations, Syria has for months insisted that the site was nothing more than an unused military site. U.S. intelligence agencies presented evidence that purported to show that the site was a carefully hidden nuclear facility.

SYRIA: Israeli hopes for a Tehran-Damascus rift collapse

Iranian and Syrian officials poured a bucket of ice water this week on Israeli hopes for a rupture in the long-standing Tehran-Damascus relationship.

Israeli officials had demanded Syria break ties with Iran in exchange for returning the occupied Golan Heights to Syria.

Instead, Syria this week appeared to strengthen its ties with Iran, signing a defense cooperation pact in a showy Tehran photo-op on Tuesday.

That same day, Syrian President Bashar Assad told a visiting delegation of British lawmakers that Damascus' relationship with Tehran was not up for negotiation.

In reality, despite a lot of media attention, there was never really much chance of a peace deal between Syria and Israel or a break in ties between Damascus and Tehran. At least not anytime soon.

ISRAEL: Olmert's peace offensive

Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert is waging a peace offensive as he battles on the home front against allegations of corruption that threaten to cut short his term in office.

In an interview with The Times this week, he spoke of a "race against time" to reach an interim accord with the Palestinian Authority in U.S.-backed peace talks before President Bush leaves office in January. "If we miss the opportunity," he said, "then how long will it take before we can restart with a new American administration?"

Broadening his peace effort Wednesday, Olmert went public with the existence, since early last year, of talks between Israel and Syria through Turkish mediators, aimed at ending the two neighbors' long enmity. That represents a longer-term effort by Olmert to end Syria's backing for the Palestinian movement Hamas, a sworn enemy of Israel that is not part of the talks with the Palestinian Authority. The move weakens the Bush administration's policy of trying to isolate Syria.

An Israeli-Syrian accord could oblige Israel to return most or all of the militarily strategic Golan Heights, which it seized from Syria in the 1967 Middle East war. In return, Israel would expect Syria to break its alliance with Iran, which backs the Lebanese group Hezbollah as well as Hamas. Israel is alarmed by Hezbollah's recent muscle-flexing in Lebanon, and by Wednesday's internal political agreement there that appears to solidify the group's status as an armed force overshadowing the power of the state.

—Richard Boudreaux in Jerusalem

LEBANON: Dangerous times and encouraging signs

Scholar and Lebanon expert Augustus Richard Norton recently took time out for a lengthy e-mail interview with the Los Angeles Times about the confusing conflict in Lebanon.

Lebanon watchers have been worried for some time that the current political stalemate between the Western-leaning government and the Iranian-backed opposition could explode and plunge the country into civil war.

"While many Lebanese adults have a living memory of the 15-year civil war that ended in 1990, many shabaab or 'young bloods' on all sides have been rearing for a fight," wrote Norton. "On several occasions dangerous clashes emerged and the country seems to have been close to the brink, and then wiser heads prevailed on all sides."

Norton knows Lebanon well. He served as a peacekeeper in the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) during the 1980s and wrote the groundbreaking book "Amal and the Shi'a" in 1987.

Now a professor of international relations and anthropology at Boston University, he recently published the timely "Hezbollah: A Short History," described by Publisher's Weekly as a "remarkably thorough, articulate portrait" and by the Washington Post as a "lucid primer" on the group.

He's a member of the Council on Foreign Relations and  was an advisor to the Iraq Study Group in 2006.

Below is the interview.

IRAN: Messages of war and bombings escalate

If the medium is the message, as the Canadian scholar Marshall McLuhan put it, the Iranians couldn't possibly mistake the recent communications by the United States. 

On Tuesday, President Bush told reporters that the Israeli bombing of an alleged North Korean-designed nuclear facility in Syria was not just directed against Pyongyang and Damascus, but was also a not-so-subtle telegram to Tehran.

Answering a question about the sudden resurfacing of the Sept. 16 attack on the Syrian facility, Bush strongly suggested that the United States and Israel had Iran in mind when Syria was bombed:

SYRIA: More questions about alleged nuclear site

Professor William Beeman at the University of Minnesota passed along a note today from "a colleague with a U.S. security clearance" about the mysterious Syrian site targeted in a Sept. 6 Israeli airstrike.

The note raises more questions about the evidence shown last week by U.S. intelligence officials to lawmakers in the House and Senate. 

The author of the note pinpoints irregularities about the photographs. Beeman's source alleges that the CIA "enhanced" some of the images. For example he cites this image:

The lower part of the building, the annex, and the windows pointing south appear much sharper than the rest of the photo, suggesting that they were digitally improved.

The author points to more questions about the photographs of the Syrian site.

SYRIA: Was Damascus building a nuclear program?

So are the Syrians or the Americans bending facts about Kibar?

That's the site in the eastern deserts of Syria destroyed in an Israeli airstrike on Sept. 6. The consequences Kibar airstrike continue to unfold. Los Angeles Times Washington bureau reporter Nicole Gaouette writes today about the bipartisan skepticism of U.S. lawmakers about the timing and substance of the Bush administration's presentations (see video below) about the site last week.

The presentations to the Senate and House intelligence committees were meant to show that North Koreans were helping the Syrians build a plutonium reactor. Instead, the evidence drew unusually strong criticism.

ISRAEL: Turkey mediates possible Syria deal

Despite months of tension, Israel and Syria appeared Thursday to be engaged in indirect talks on the outlines of a peace accord that would include an Israeli pullout from the Golan Heights.

Direct, U.S.-brokered talks over the territory, captured by Israel in the 1967 Middle East War, collapsed in 2000. There have been periodic peace overtures since, but the current effort is viewed as more serious because it is being mediated by Turkey, which has close relations with both countries.

Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert described his hope for a deal in an interview last week before Passover, telling the Israeli newspaper Yediot Aharonot, "I am acting on this issue, and I hope that my efforts mature into something meaningful."

Click here to read more.

—Richard Boudreaux in Jerusalem

MIDDLE EAST: Spy games

Two blockbuster Middle East espionage tales emerged from Washington today.

First, a scoop by Los Angeles Times diplomatic reporter Paul Richter and intelligence reporter Greg Miller: The CIA plans to brief key lawmakers in a closed-door session about the mysterious Syrian site that was the target of an Israeli air raid in September.

The report cites anonymous Beltway officials. Here's an excerpt:

SYRIA: Radio as a sound sensation

It's the midmorning commute, and time for the horoscope on "Good Morning Syria," the nation's hottest radio show.

"Cancer," host Honey Sayed addresses listeners first in Arabic, then in English, with an air of sisterly candor, "don't get all worked up for nothing."

On the other side of the window, deejay Abdullah Shaaban cues an oldie from John Travolta and Olivia Newton-John. "I got chills, they're multiplying," Travolta sings. "And I'm losing control."

Honey laughs and continues with her astrology report. "An opportunity is present," she coos into the microphone, "so take it, Leo."

Newly instituted freedom on the nation's airwaves has transformed Syria's sonic landscape. Some say it is shaping the way people view themselves, part of a wave of global influences turning this nation, whose government is the most hostile to the West in the Arab world, into the culture most amenable to it.

Click here to read more.

—Borzou Daragahi in Damascus

Photo: Her bubbly laugh has become her signature, and is even used for promos. “A guy called me up and said he wished he could make my laugh his ring tone,” Honey Sayed says. Credit: John Wreford / For the Times

IRAN: Warming up to once-despised Jimmy Carter

The Iranian government has officially and regularly decried former President Jimmy Carter since the founding of the Islamic Republic of Iran in 1979. 

But it looks like some within official Iranian circles are willing to let bygones be bygones, especially now that Carter has defied the Bush administration by meeting with the Palestinian militant group and Iranian ally, Hamas.

Iran's animosity toward Carter stretches back decades. He was, after all, the U.S. commander in chief who toasted deposed Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi months before a popular 1978 uprising against his rule, briefly offered the monarch sanctuary in America and dispatched an ill-fated rescue team to free American diplomats and embassy employees being held hostage in Iran.

But politics makes for strange bedfellows.

ISRAEL: The Carter question, part 2

The Jimmy Carter Middle East Goodwill Tour continues to generate pretty much the opposite of goodwill among supporters of Israel.

Carter arrived in Israel today for several days of meetings with Israeli and Palestinian leaders. In an interview broadcast Sunday on ABC’s “This Week,” Carter acknowledged that he plans to meet with senior leaders of the Palestinian militant group Hamas this week in Syria.

That prospect has the blog-o-sphere at a full-boil, with perspectives running from supportive to outraged to surrealist.

ISRAEL: The Carter question

For a man generally regarded as one of the nicest people ever to hold the office, former President Carter has developed a talent for getting people angry. Carter became persona non grata among supporters of Israel when his “Palestine: Peace Not Apartheid” was published in 2006.

Carter arrives in Israel Sunday as part of a controversial Middle East diplomacy tour. After several days of meetings here with Palestinian and Israeli politicians, he moves on to Damascus, Syria, amid growing speculation that he will break a major U.S. and Israeli taboo by meeting with Hamas leader Khaled Meshaal.

The Carter Center hasn't confirmed the meeting, but a Hamas official told the Associated Press that Carter's representatives had requested the appointment. 

Either way, the response has been swift and harsh.

SYRIA: Shocker from Iran about militant's death

A stunning report carried by pro-government Iranian media accuses Saudi Arabia of complicity in the February assassination of the militant Imad Mughniyah, the shadowy Lebanese commander with ties to Syria and Iran. 

The report cites unnamed sources close to the investigation and could not be confirmed. At the very least it  hints at ongoing tension between Damascus and Tehran over the course of the probe into the  legendary Hezbollah commander's fiery death.

The report was first published Tuesday by the Persian-language section of the Fars News Agency and then carried today on the front page of  the conservative newspaper Kayhan, which is close to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, Iran's top authority on all matters.

On the off chance you read Farsi, the links are here and here. The report has been translated by the Italian AKI news agency, as well.

Mughniyah was a high-ranking Hezbollah commander said to be in charge of the group's international operations. He was killed in a Feb. 12 car bombing attack in a highly secure section of Damascus.

The source quoted in the report told Fars that the Syrians had discovered a network connected to Israeli intelligence and Saudi Arabian Prince Bandar bin Sultan as well as a Saudi intelligence official in Damascus as partly behind the death. The source alleged that the Syrians had already arrested a Saudi official and were about to release their long-delayed report about the killing implicating the Saudis but were swayed by Kuwait to hold off.

Both Saudi Arabia and Kuwait urged their citizens to leave Lebanon after Mughniyah's slaying.

Here are other allegations in the report:

• Israeli intelligence officials monitored Mughniyah's comings and goings for a year before the assassination.
• Conspirators included Jordanians, Syrians and Palestinians who, along with their families, had rented or bought housing near Mughniyah's residence in the Kafar Sosa district of Damascus.
• The Saudi official overseeing the operation fled home after the assassination but was lured back by a woman with whom he was having an affair.

Take 'em all with a grain of salt.

Publication of the report by  pro-government outlets suggests an ongoing rift between Syria and Iran over Mughniyah's death. It could also stir up sectarian troubles in Lebanon, where Shiite Hezbollah is at odds with the Saudi-backed Sunni-led government.

— Borzou Daragahi in Beirut

Photo: The front page of today's Kayhan in Tehran featured a photograph of Saudi Prince Bandar bin Sultan conferring with President Bush above an article alleging Saudi complicity in the assassination of Hezbollah commander Imad Mughniyah.

MIDDLE EAST: War fears grip the region

While Israel is trying to keep a low profile about its latest series of catastrophe drills, the Lebanese are accusing the Jewish state of beating the drums of war. 

Top Hezbollah officials said that the military exercises next door, which continued for the second day today, were a sign that Israel was preparing for the next war after its "humiliating defeat" in the summer 2006 war.

The Shiite militant group's deputy leader, Sheik Naeem Qassem, told a rally in south Beirut on Sunday:

These drills are part of preparations for war because Israel is always in a warlike situation … These drills are part of plans for something in the future, probably it could be far off, but it is a preparation for war.

Hezbollah's main supporter, Iran, described the Israeli home front defense drills as "provocative actions." Mohammed Ali Hosseini, a spokesman for the Iranian Foreign Ministry, told reporters in Tehran today:

"The war game was performed to boost the low spirit of the Zionist regime's troops. But the nature and raison d'etre of the Zionist regime is terrorism and intimidation. Regrettably, whenever one U.S. official visits Israel, the Zionist regime's officials are emboldened to behave aggressively."

JORDAN: Guns galore at Middle East weapons fair

The specter of conflicts in the Middle East intensifying and widening worries many countries in the region. But some Arab nations are showing a growing interest in acquiring or selling sophisticated weapons as suggested by the wide participation in an international exhibition for military hardware, held in Jordan over the last few days.

The event, Special Operations Forces Exhibition and Conference (SOFEX) 2008 was a muscular display of tanks, armored vehicles, high-tech surveillance equipment, gunboats, machine guns, etc.

Check out the first minute or two of the promotional video for the event and you'll get the idea.

SYRIA: Arab League Summit's bitter aftertaste

The Arab League Summit ended over the weekend in the Syrian capital of Damascus with no breakthroughs, as expected, on the various political crises of the region.

The main news that came out of this annual meeting of Arab leaders was the absence of several heads of state. Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Egypt, among other countries, sent low-ranking officials to the conference because, in their eyes, Damascus was blocking the selection of a president in Lebanon, which sent no one to the conference.

SYRIA: The Seinfeld summit

The Egyptians are sending a low-ranking official. The Saudis, too, are sending a nobody, while the Lebanese are actually sending nobody.

Prime Minister Nouri Maliki of Iraq may have to struggle to wrest himself from his troubles, while the archipelago nation of Comoros, undergoing a coup d'etat, is  probably in no position to send anyone to the Arab League Summit, where Arab heads of state or their delegates are scheduled to meet this weekend to talk about...well, that's a good question.

Cynics will cackle that the Arab League summits rarely accomplish anything. Previous summits have focused on the situation in Iraq or the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.

But so far about only thing this year's summit in Damascus has been mostly about is who is attending and who is blowing it off.

(Let's not forget the biggest issue: who's actually going to pick up the tab.)

Today, as foreign ministers of the Arab states met, the hundreds of journallists who've descended upon Damascus from around the world were left to interview each other at the international press center.

I have already fielded two requests for interviews. While waiting for news to break, I called up a source in Damascus for an interview.

With my cellphone cradled between my chin and shoulder, I began taking notes. Suddenly three photojournalists descended on me and began clicking away.

Apparently, I was the only journalist at the press center actually working.

— Borzou Daragahi in Damascus

Photo: Arab League Secretary General Amr Mousa speaks to a journalist after the meeting of Arab foreign ministers in Damascus on March 27. Credit: LOUAI BESHARA/AFP/Getty Images

LEBANON: Not taking the road to Damascus

Lebanon's political life is on hold these days. And all eyes are now focused on the annual summit of Arab leaders at the end of this week in Damascus. The meeting is expected to extensively discuss the Lebanese conundrum.

But hopes are already low that a miraculous solution will come out of these Arab talks. Late Tuesday night, the Lebanese government decided to boycott the Arab Summit.

SYRIA: Offering Lebanon an olive branch, or a booby trap?

Is Syria just playing games or is it really trying to repair its acrid relations with the Lebanese government?

That was question this week after Damascus dispatched an official for an express visit to Beirut. His mission: deliver an official invitation to Lebanon's government for this year's controversial Arab Summit, scheduled for Damascus at the end of March.

LEBANON: U.S. warship draws Moscow's ire

The crisis in Lebanon continues to draw world powers into its vortex, this time Russia.

A U.S. show of force off the Lebanese coast has not only jolted U.S. foes in the region, Syria and Iran, but apparently also Moscow.

On Monday, Russia's U.N. Ambassador Vitaly Churkin criticized the U.S. for deploying warships in the eastern Mediterranean at a closed Security Council meeting. He said that the presence of the ships was simply not helping solve the political crisis in the small nation; quite the opposite actually, according to his comments in the Associated Press:

"We pointed out the fact that basically all Lebanese political forces expressed their concern about that, including the government of Prime Minister (Fuad) Saniora, and we have said that such acts were bringing up some unwanted historical analogies. So we did not see it as a constructive contribution to the situation in Lebanon."

SYRIA: Avoiding an Arab League fiasco

Once again, Syria is proving to be the "black sheep" of the Arab world.

After years of waiting, it's finally Damascus' turn to shine as host of the annual Arab League Summit. But now come worries that Saudi Arabia, along with Egypt and Jordan, might ruin the party.

The so-called "moderate Arab states," backed by the U.S., want to punish Syria for trying to regain control over its smaller neighbor, Lebanon. For the past three months, Saudis have blamed Syrians for repeatedly blocking the election of a Lebanese president.

LEBANON: U.S.S. Cole heads toward Lebanese coast

Is the U.S. beating the war drums in Lebanon? U.S. officials revealed Thursday the unexpected deployment of American warships off the Lebanese coast "to bolster stability" in the region. But in Lebanon, the move was slammed as a military threat to the Shiite Muslim militant group Hezbollah and its backers, Syria and Iran.

According to media reports, the famous U.S.S. Cole was heading toward Lebanese waters from Malta. The stated reason was said to be growing concerns in Washington over the political deadlock in Lebanon and Syria's meddling in Lebanese internal affairs.

"The presence is important. It isn't meant to send any stronger signals than that but in fact it does signal that we're engaged, we're going to be in the vicinity," Adm. Mike Mullen, chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, told reporters at the Pentagon.

Hezbollah denounced the American decision as a "failing attempt by the U.S. administration to support its [Lebanese] allies with its military apparel." Hezbollah lawmaker Hassan Fadlallah told one local newspaper that this "proved the real confrontation [in Lebanon] is with decision makers in Washington."

A drawn-out political crisis has pitted the U.S.-backed Lebanese government against the Hezbollah-led opposition supported by Iran and Syria. As a result, the country has been without a president for the past three months. Tensions between the two feuding factions are rising on the streets.

Local pro-Hezbollah newspapers attacked the U.S. show of force. One virulent headline talked about "a direct military threat" and one editorial slammed the Bush administration for repeating its "humiliating" deployment of warships along the Lebanese coast in 1982. The U.S. pulled out its troops then from Lebanon after deadly attacks against its embassy and its Marine barracks in Beirut.

"It is wishful thinking if the US thinks that the Lebanese people will adore this exhibition of military force," wrote a French-Lebanese blogger at Les Politiques.

Lebanese Prime Minister Fouad Siniora tried to diffuse the impact of the U.S. move. He told reporters that "there are no foreign warships in Lebanese waters," adding that the government did not request any military support.

— Raed Rafei in Beirut

Photo: U.S.S. Cole sails the sea. Credit: Ship website

SYRIA: Mysterious death of an enigma

Word of the killing of Lebanese militant Imad Mughniyah, unleashed a flood of speculation around the world. Who was behind the killing? What does it mean?

Arabs and Iranians immediately blamed Israel, which has long wanted the head of Mughniyah, a reclusive militant known as the chief of "special operations" for the Shiite militia Hezbollah as well as a key ally of Iran.

Haaretz correpsondent Amir Oren, in an analysis, said if Israel did the job, its Mossad secret service deserved the credit for sending a clear message to Israel's enemies.

Iran saw Mughniyah as a crucial asset...Whoever tracked Mughniyah down in Syria had excellent operational and intelligent abilities...The operation sends a poignant message to Hamas, Islamic Jihad and Hezbollah and will make them think twice about opening a second front if Israel is to enter Gaza in a major ground incursion.

It's possible that Mughniyah was taken out by one-time allies he might have crossed in some way. A Shiite Muslim, he may have been the target of Sunni militants believed to be linked to Al Qaeda or, it has been suggested, even by governments in Damascus or Tehran that might have felt he'd outlived his usefulness.

But some observers say his death is a victory for the U.S. and Israel, no matter who is responsible. His considerable black ops expertise will be missed by Hezbollah, Iran and Syria, they say. Here's a comment from Kent's Imperative, an intelligence blog:

It does not matter, in that moment, whether this was merely red on red violence, or if some unknown covert action element of the international great game achieved the decisive checkmate. It only matters that the faces now change, and the benefits of Mughniyah’s long operational experience has been denied to the terrorist adversary.

Most Westerners and a smattering of bloggers in the Middle East hailed Mughniyah's passing. "May he rot in hell," declared Shaun Mullen over at the Moderate Voice blog.

But most Arabs hailed him as a hero who fought against Israel. His career as a militant began with the 1980s Israeli invasion and occupation of Lebanon. Zeinobia at Egyptian Chronicles justified her sympathy for the slain Lebanese fighter:

I do not think that he is terrorist in the same way that the Israelis do not believe that Ariel Sharon is a war criminal. Seriously. You look it from your perspective. This man was defending his country... I know very well and so [do] other patriots in Lebanon who were the invaders.

— Borzou Daragahi in Los Angeles

Photo: A photo released by the Hezbollah media office, shows Imad Mughniyah, the elusive senior Hezbollah commander. Credit: AP Photo/Hezbollah Media Office 

Winter weather in Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, Israel, etc.

For once, it isn't just terrorist attacks and political intrigue making headlines in the Middle East, but a subject everybody can relate to: the weather. The whole area seems to be more at the mercy of a rare snowstorm than any political crisis.

In Jerusalem, the snowy weather almost overshadowed a government report on Israel's 2006 war on Lebanon. Large parts of the Holy City were covered in white, causing schools and stores to shut and children to engage in snowball fights. Public transportation was grounded.

In Amman, even adults gave in to the rare pleasure of pelting each other with snowballs after almost a foot of snow blanketed the city. Here, too, vital business also came to a standstill. News reports said that flights were grounded for a few hours Thursday at the Jordanian capital's international airport, where de-icing machines worked frantically to clear planes for takeoff.

Lebanon's central areas were cut off from its coastal cities. Snow blocked roads leading to the Bekaa Valley and covered most of the country's mountain villages. The snowstorm crippled an already poorly performing power system, increasing the long hours of electricity outtages in many areas.

The mountains surrounding Damascus were also blanketed in snow and many roads in Syria's rural areas were blocked.

— Raed Rafei in Beirut

Photo: A Syrian family enjoys the snowfall in the capital, Damascus. A wave of cold weather and snow storms is hitting the Middle East, closing mountain roads and hindering traffic in some regions in Syria, Lebanon, Jordan and Israel. Credit: LOUAI BESHARA/AFP/Getty Images

SYRIA: The usual suspects

It seems that the Syrian government is clamping down again on homegrown dissidents.

On Monday, Syrian authorities arrested a leading opposition figure, Riad Seif, hours after putting 10 other critics of the ruling Baath Party on trial, according to international human rights groups.

The link between the detained opposition figures is a high-profile political meeting they all attended at Seif's residence in Damascus in December.

We caught up with Ausama Monajed, a London-based Syrian dissident and member of an opposition group, for a phone interview:

It is obvious that the regime wants to eliminate any seed of democracy that could grow and endanger it. But with international pressure and growing local support, the opposition cannot be easily shut.

Seif and the 10 other dissidents face years-long jail sentences for charges such as "weakening the national spirit and awakening racism and sectarianism," and "spreading false information," and "involvement in a secret organization."

Monajed described these charges as "outrageously unfounded, tailor-made accusations."

Seif has already served five years in prison for his political activities. He recently formed an umbrella opposition group, called the Damascus Declaration National Council ,to lead the way "peacefully" for democracy in Syria.

Prying open a small window of hope for democratic reforms in Syria, the group was celebrated for encompassing an unprecedentedly large range of political entities, including leftists, liberals, conservatives, Kurds and moderate Islamists.

Apparently the Syrian government is not yet ready to tolerate such opposition.

The Movement for Justice and Development, a vocal opposition group with representatives in Syria and Britain, said that the arrests were widely seen as "an attempt by the Syrian regime to forestall the development of a strong pro-democracy movement in the country."

The arrests also provoked the indignation of Human Rights organizations. The U.S.-based Freedom House accused the Syrian government, in a press statement released yesterday, of "trying to conjure up some legal fiction to mask its blatant repression of any independent expression."

— Raed Rafei in Beirut

Photo: Syrian dissident Riad Seif, also spelled Riyad Saif, has been jailed. Credit: Forsyria.org

MIDDLE EAST: Dutch film about Koran could spark new clash

Uh-oh... The clash of civilizations may fire up again with the possible release of a short film by an ultra-rightwing member of Holland's parliament who has likened the Koran to Adolf Hitler's "Mein Kampf."

Geert Wilders, a Dutch lawmaker, has made a movie that has raised alarm bells across Europe even before it's been screened. Political leaders worry about another flare-up of cross-cultural conflict like the one that erupted in 2006 after the Danish publication of cartoons depicting the Prophet Mohammed. 

The film purports to show the dangers of the Koran and Wilders has threatened to air his movie during a segment on Dutch television alloted to his Freedom Party. Wilders has a less-than-stellar record when it comes to cultural sensitivity on the issue of Islam. He has demanded an outright ban on Islam's holiest book, which he calls a "fascist" text. And he means it when he says ban, according to his website:

Not only the sale, but also the use in mosques and ownership in a household context should be punishable. If the current legislation does not allow that, then a new law on banning the book should be introduced. This book incites hate and murder, and therefore does not fit in with our rule of law. If Muslims want to participate, they must distance themselves from the Koran. I know that is asking a great deal, but we have to stop making concessions.

LEBANON: Untouchable diva in political cross-fire

Lebanon is a highly divided nation where people of various religions constantly bicker over almost everything. The one thing Lebanese of all stripes have long agreed on has been their unconditional devotion to the country's greatest pop music diva, Fairouz.

Well, apparently, not anymore. After their beloved 70-something mega-star decided to sing late this month in the country's much-derided neighbor, Syria, even she has been soiled by Lebanon's political mudfight.

LEBANON: 1,000 days, no end in sight

Lebanon’s parliament today, the fourth time, announced a delay in choosing a new president. Speaker Nabih Berri said negotiations between the pro-Western and anti-Syrian camp and the Syria- and Iran-backed opposition faction continued.

Lebanon also marked 1,000 days  since the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri in February 2005.

Lebanese commuters passing through central Beirut are greeted by the beaming face of their former prime minister on a large billboard with a digital counter tallying the number of days since his killing above the words, "The truth, for the sake of Lebanon." 

SYRIA: Iraqi refugee woes

In the bustling streets of Damascus, Syrians have something new to grumble about — the increasing frequency in which they say they hear the Iraqi accents of their neighbors who have fled the war and come to Syria.

Best estimates put the Iraqi refugee population in Syria (population 18.5 million) at anywhere from 1.5 million to 2 million, an influx that clearly has been felt by all segments of Syrian society.

For the poor, there is competition for entry-level jobs such as janitors, waiters and laborers, with Iraqis willing to flout the law and their refugee status to earn a living. This, however, pushes Syrians out of this kind of work. And the situation has been made worse because the influx of Iraqis is driving up the prices for apartments and  other rentals.