MIDDLE EAST: Can the region's Christians survive the 21st Century?

As the 21st Century enters its second decade, two millennia of Christian presence in the Middle East might be eclipsed by the end of the century.

The new decade began in the Middle East with a car bomb that went off minutes after midnight outside an Egyptian church and left more than 20 people dead. This bombing came just a few weeks after radical Islamic gunmen killed dozens of people in a church in Iraq. The rise of Al Qaeda and the spread of radical Islamic movements have made the difficult situation of the Middle East’s Christian minorities far worse.

Comprising 20% of the region’s population at the beginning of the 20th Century, the remaining 10 to 12 million people make up only 5% of the population today. Though Christians played prominent roles in the cultural, nationalist, leftist and anti-colonial movements of earlier decades, they are excluded from the Islamist politics of recent years.

Since 2001, they have also borne some of the brunt of the confrontation between radical Islam and the (Christian) West.

In Iraq, almost half a million Christians have fled the country since the American-led invasion of 2003. With no safe haven or protective militia, the historic Christian communities of Iraq have been caught in Arab-Kurdish and Sunni-Shiite confrontations, as well as direct attacks from Al Qaeda, and now number less than 3% of the population. In Egypt, the Christian Coptic community, which makes up about 10% of the population, suffers from state discrimination and open hostility from radical Muslim movements.

In Sudan, the northern government has been at war with its largely Christian south for decades -- a war that might end in secession in the coming days. Christians in the Palestinian territories have dropped from 15% of the Arab population in 1950 to about 1% today, pushed out by the conditions of occupation and the rise of Hamas and militant Islam. In Syria, the country’s 10% Christian population has been protected under the Assad regime, although its numbers are also gradually dwindling.

Lebanon used to be the only Arab country with a Christian majority, and as such had a Christian-dominated government from 1920 until 1990. The demographic majority became a minority in the 1950s, and a long civil war from 1975 to 1990 led many Christians to move abroad and ended with the Christian president being stripped of most of his powers.

Protecting that presence will not be easy, as the risks are numerous. The dramatic exodus from Iraq shows that state-provided stability and security, imperfect as it is, is still far preferable to chaos and state failure. But governments must be much more proactive in providing inclusion and security for all minorities. Egypt, for instance, can and should do much more to include and protect the Coptic community.

International pressure will be necessary. The Sudanese government, for example, should be warned against seeking revenge on groups of southern Christians who might be left behind in northern Sudan after secession. In some cases -- and Iraq might be one of them -- setting up safe havens, as was done for the Kurds, might also be an option.

Muslims and Christians have a lot at stake in preserving moderation and tolerant societies in the Middle East. But it will take much concerted regional action and international attention to make sure that the 21st century is not the last century of Christian-Muslim coexistence in the birthplace of both religions.

-- Paul Salem in Beirut

Editor’s Note: The post is from an analyst with the Carnegie Middle East Center. Neither the Los Angeles Times nor Babylon & Beyond endorses the positions of the analysts, nor does Carnegie endorse the political positions of The Times or its blog.

Top photo: Statues of Jesus, the Virgin Mary and Lebanese Saint Charbel sit for sale on a highway outside a shop in Safra north of Beirut on Thursday. Credit: Joseph Eid / Getty Images

Bottom photo: Riot police stand guard near the Orthodox church where bomb attacks took place Saturday in Alexandria, Egypt. Egypt tightened security around churches Thursday on the eve of Coptic Christmas after a New Year's Day bombing killed up to 23 and sparked angry protests by Christians demanding more protection from Muslim militants. Credit: Asmaa Waguih / Reuters

Comments

[anon]

@Joe and sam....and that hideous ABG......I posted a reply to your comments...but the censors did not approved them.
I will try later....

[Mack Fairbanks]

OBAMA FULFILLING THE BIBLE

Pres. Lincoln stated: "I believe the Bible is the best gift God has ever given to man." But several Bible verses are embarrassing to Pres. Obama:
Proverbs 19:10 (NIV): "It is not fitting for a fool to live in luxury - how much worse for a slave to rule over princes!"
Also Proverbs 30:22 (NIV) which says that the earth cannot bear up under "a servant who becomes king."
And Ecclesiastes 5:2-3 (KJV) advises: "let thy words be few...a fool's voice is known by multitude of words."
Although Obama is not descended from slaves, he may feel that he's destined to become a black-slavery avenger.
Or maybe an enslaver of all free citizens!
For some stunning info on Pres. Obama and his fellow subversives, Google "Michelle Obama's Allah-day," "Obama Supports Public Depravity," "David Letterman's Hate Etc.," "Un-Americans Fight Franklin Graham" and also "Sandra Bernhard, Larry David, Kathy Griffin, Bill Maher, Sarah Silverman."
PS - Since Christians are commanded to ask God to send severe judgment on persons who commit and support the worst forms of evil (see I Cor. 5 and note "taken away"), Christians everywhere should constantly pray that the Lord will soon "take away" or at least overthrow all US leaders, including Obama, who continue to sear their conscience and arrogantly trample the God-given rights of the majority including the rights of the unborn. Do we need a second American Revolution?
PPS - For a rare look at a 180-year-old, imported-from-British-crazies endtime escapist belief which has long neutralized millions by promising them an "imminent rapture" off earth - which has diverted them away from being prepared to stand against all enemies, domestic as well as foreign - Google "Pretrib Rapture Dishonesty" and "Pretrib Rapture - Hidden Facts."

[Joe]

Clarification, Odin is a god in Norse mythology!

[Joe]

Dear geo, with all do respect for Christianity, it's the only religion which proselytizing is a accepted practice and being sanctioned by Church, other religions will accept convert but you have to willingly walk to their clergies and ask for it before they start preaching you about their way of religious practices, African Americans do get attracted to Islam because Islam is a color blinded religion since their founders and most of their present followers aren't white skinned and also they were forced to accept Christianity during slavery and Africa colonial period, that's one way for them to resist white supremacy put downs specially in jails, as far as Judaism or others web site, you can chose to visit them or not but they won't send you email to join them, as I said they do accept converts but they don't send you a live person to persuade you!
Don't take ABG seriously, he just like to insult our intelligence!
I have been forced to worship Odin, seriously that's the name of my nephew, do you want him :)

[sam]

@geo88a greetings, you have not read? or understand,any of my previous postings or you would not have made the comment to me that you did,you would also understand that i'm an israeli/jew who stands by my comments that i have nothing against muslim/arab,people infact had you have read previous comments you would understand my fuller picture,i am against radical/islam and the way they force them-selves on others,and all the disgusting things that go along with them,as far as your comment to me about christians,again you are way off base,i give all people i meet the same, i hope friendly and polite manner,until i learn how they feel about me,then of course i can back off if needed,
this is a far to long subject to repeat my-self but i grew up with the problems and know a lot more about them than you do.
in my job i have been to many places that my passport allows,seen many things mixed at ground level with the people,and judge as i find some-thing that has not always been returned to me.
thank you.

[Dean Blake]

@ Jack - Christians haven't learned to hate Muslims, yet. Muslims will teach them. Xtians are naive and easily forgive and turn the other cheak. Jews remember Pharo and despise him and his kind for their behavior. We learned our lesson and we taught our children that people who express bad ideas, if not confronted, corrected and chatised, will impliment those ideas at the expense of others.

However, I agree the issue is oil, not religion for the West, its just a distraction while we extract our American oil out from underneath the starving masses of Arabia while benefiting only the Roayal families. Muslims are counter-attacking because they feel threatened, and Western ideas and values are threatening to Muslims if for no other reason than it represents different values. We are seeing the effects of 'future shock' on Arab societies that have not advanced incrimentally in 2,400 years. If freed Black American slaves had immigrated not to Liberia but to the Levant and not Jews, the Arabs would oppose those Xtains, too. Rich people use religion, the only hope poor people have, to obtain more riches. Truthfully, we Jews don't think, read or talk about gentile's religious beliefs at all; its forbidden, aside from being a waste of time, like golf.

[ABG]

Wow, Jack.... How many of your voices contributed to that amazing run-on sentence of abject hatred and Jew baiting lunacy?

[ABG]

@geo88: It is against the law in Judaism to prosletyze, so I'm not really sure where you're getting information about "rabbis actively recruiting on the web."

Then again, this wouldn't be the first time you posted untruths about Jews on this web portal.

[geo88a]

@Joe....(shaking head)....you must not go much, huh? There are rabbis actively recruiting on the web. Islam is the religion of most U.S jails with large black populations.
@sam.....you obviously don't understand Christianity..much less Islam.
As for me, I would have been more than happy to worship our own Norse Gods from the past.

[Joe]

In state of Utah once in a week couple of well groom young man will knock at your door and talk for hours in order to convert you to Christianity or their religious denomination, yet to see any Moslem or Jewish or Buddhist person knocking on my door trying to convert me, I guess you have to walk in to their churches if you want to convert!

[John Williams]

No. They never will survive what George Bush II did to them there during his reign as Warrior-President of the Middle East Antiterrorism Cartel.

[Jack]

By reading commentaries for years now I have came to a conclusion that Christian and Moslem commentators do not perceive each other as enemy and vocally they're courteous to each other since both realize their well being is dependent on maintaining peace and dialogue since both side have followers in tune of billions and it'll be catastrophic for humanity to have war between them, on other hand Jewish commentators obviously despise Arabs and Moslem in general and definitely don't like Christians but never vocally demonize them since their economical well being are dependent on Christian societies not so much do on Muslim societies and therefore they're the ones trying to stir the pot by vocally demonizing one side or another when opportunity arises, no one take them seriously do since both leaders of Christian and Moslem world are emphasizing that religion is not motive in present conflicts unlike present Israeli leaders statements and therefore one can be assured that present conflicts in Middle-East are about oil and other natural resources and not a religion.

[sam]

CHRISTIANITY. is the only religion which actively recruits other religions followers.
the muslim/terrorists seem to have been left out of this comment,they recruit any and all religions they think they can converting them to their madness,and of course unlike any other religion once your in its for life if you try to leave the brain washing,well its your life ended,the only religion that does this,is islam.
thank you.

[michael g]

But, Mr. Obama has told us over and over that the Muslims are our "friends". It's the "Religion of Peace", afterall. Our illustrious President is coddling the very people who are bent on destroying us... What a tragic shame. The Fall of 2012 cannot come soon enough for the America people...

[anon]

It seems other posters here either are ignorant of history or wish to rewrite it. The Christian Copts of Egypt are the indigenous people of Egypt. The Arab Muslims only came to Egypt during the 7th century. In sum, no Egypt is not a Muslim land. It is a Christian Land.

[Jehudah Ben-Israel]

There is a saying in Arabic: Today is Saturday, tomorrow is Sunday. Meaning, today we "cleanse" our life of the Jews, tomorrow we do the same of the Christians...!!

"Saturday" is long gone. The Muslim-Arab world is void of any Jewish soul.

Now it is "Sunday", based on this Arabic saying...!!

[Dean Blake]

Why do Xtians expect to receive special treatment in Muslim lands? The Jews were expelled. Why would you ever expect that Xtians would not also be expelled? The underlying presumption of the article is that the mistreatment of religious minorities by Muslims should somehow have naturally made an exception for Xtians. The inference being that Ba'hia, Jews, Suffi, Buddists and others somehow deserve their maltreatment at the hands of Muslims, while Xtains should be naturally exempt. Very arrogant.

@ Miriam - less than 1/2 the population has an IQ exceeding 100, your remarks will not be understood as cynical, but as truth. Most Xtians have not been tritheists for any longer than Muslims have been monotheists as it didn't spread widely until the 500's and the Prophet came along in 614. Sweds and Norwedians didn't convert until the 1400's.

[Dan]

Dr Salem, the premise of your argument is correct, and you get off on the right footing, but somewhere along the way, you miss important points:

a) Attacks on Christians stem from an imaginary belief among extremists that these Christians are protected and in cahoots with the same Western governments that have supported Israel, attacked Iraq, and colonized the region and divided it to their liking in previous centuries.

b) In reality, while Christians were targeted and have faced some dire circumstances, to say they bore the "brunt" of the clash between the extremists and the West is out of touch. Muslims were killed by Al Qaeda and other extremist militant groups in far bigger numbers than Christians in the Arab world and the West combined.

c) In the brutal dictatorship of Omar al-Bashir, there was a long war between the Muslim north and the Christian/animist south. It was a civil war, and that has nothing to do with the argument you're making.

d) In Lebanon, also due to a civil war, BOTH Muslims and Christians moved out, which is why the Lebanese population outside Lebanon is far greater than that in Lebanon. To make it seem as though the Lebanese Christians were somehow more so victims than their Muslim brothers is ludicrous. No need to go into more details.

e) TO equate Hamas' rise in Palestine with the occupation is out of touch. Most Christians left Palestine because of the occupation - and before the creation of Hamas.

f) The Assad regime has protected Christians for political reasons, and shouldn't be brushed off as a valiant protector.

Arab governments should do a lot more to protect their Christian minorities. The threats in Iraq and Egypt, that of the Israeli occupation, and even the threats in the future North Sudan and lack of freedoms in Saudi Arabia should be addressed and should be solved. But to demand the protection of Christians for any of the reasons I stated above would be unfair and would be a mis-characterization of several Muslim Arab peoples. Oh, and international pressure should be on these regimes to treat everyone equally, not just Christians.

[Jehudah Ben-Israel]

Sadly, what we witness throughout the Muslim-Arab world is a form of "cleansing": "cleansing" Islamic lands of their Christians, despite the fact that those Christian communities, e.g. Iraq, Egypt, have been there from time immemorial, that is since the very early days of Christianity.

Also sadly, Muslim societies and countries have done so in the past, even in more brutal ways, having committed a genocide against the Assyrians and nearly wiped a whole people off the face of earth, and later on against the Armenians, aiming to do the same (in both cases the Muslim Turks led the way).

Isn't it time the Christian community worldwide realized that this too is part of the clash of civilization...??

Isn't it time the leadership at the White House called the child by its name instead of, due to built-in loyalty to Islam, demanded of government officials to avoid the use of terminology that even suggests Muslims are responsible for the "cleansing" we witness...??

[Ahmad Badawi]

Interesting hatred words on living in coexistence between Muslims and Christians. Your problem Miriam is that you are mixing between our Middle East Christians and the Western world, which are too different populations. Christians in the Middle East have been living here for thousands of years and are not Westerners but part of our society and fabric. I don't see why we should make them pay the price for what the US did in Iraq or what Israel does.