IRAN, ISRAEL: Flexing muscles, turning up rhetoric in preparation for possible war

Things are not looking good for the possibility of a peaceful resolution between Israel and Iran over the latter's nuclear ambitions. Oil prices rose and hearts sank across the region this week as Iran began its biggest air defense drill ever and Israel readied a new missile defense system in preparation for a possible three-front war.

Since President Obama was swept into office promising a change toward strong diplomacy to resolve Middle East problems, his policies have faltered and his options narrowed.

The Bipartisan Policy Center, a Washington-based think tank that favors a hard line on Iran, issued a report last week recommending that the Obama administration begin preparing for possible military strikes on Iran next year. If the U.S. does not strike Iranian nuclear and military facilities, the report said, Israel may decide to take riskier unilateral action.

The year is almost over, and so far Iran is unmoved. Neither the threat of stricter sanctions nor a U.S.-backed fuel-swap proposal has persuaded Iran to abandon its nuclear program, and the war of words with Israel is escalating.

"If the enemy tries its luck and fires a missile into Iran, our ballistic missiles would zero in on Tel Aviv before the dust settles on the attack," Mojtaba Zolnour, a high-ranking government representative, told the Revolutionary Guard this week.

Meanwhile, the Associated Press reported today that Israel is investing in new high-tech weapons, including a cutting-edge antimissile system and two nuclear-equipped submarines. Israeli military experts have said that the army is expecting Iran's allies Hezbollah and Hamas to retaliate by launching synchronized rocket attacks in the event of an airstrike against Iran.

Israel's new antimissile system, known as Iron Dome, would detect incoming rockets and fire an interceptor that detonates into a cloud of pieces instead of trying to shoot down the rocket with a direct hit.

The Associated Press went on to report that in light of international condemnation of Israel over the Gaza Strip war, large resources are also going into developing more accurate weapons and noise-making explosions to scare away civilians before real bombs are dropped.

Some observers say Israel is bluffing, that it won't actually attack Iran for fear of messing up Washington's efforts in the Middle East.

But the prospect of armed conflict has alarmed some analysts, including Steven Simon at the Council on Foreign Relations, who this week published a short report examining the likelihood and consequences of an Israeli attack on Iran.

Although Simon urges U.S. policymakers to forestall an attack that could have serious military, diplomatic and political consequences for Americans, he also says Washington must take practical steps to mitigate the damage of such a conflict.

But, he warns, even such defensive preparations could be misinterpreted by Tehran: 

The United States must hedge against the failure of a war-avoidance policy, and begin preparing for an Israeli attack on Iran and Iranian retaliation. This will be a thorny process insofar as defensive measures the United States takes in the region, or urges its allies to take, could be read in Tehran as preparation for an attack and thus cast as justification for further destabilizing Iranian action.

-- Meris Lutz and Borzou Daragahi in Beirut

Photos: Above, Israeli soldiers this year take part in an army drill simulating a chemical missile attack near Tel Aviv. Credit: Sebastian Scheiner / Associated Press.

Below, Iranian clergymen stand next to air defense missiles during military exercises near the city of Malayer, 180 miles southwest of Tehran, on Monday. Credit: Abolfazl Mahrokh / AFP/Getty Images.

Comments

[Art]

The problem is that if Iran launches enough rockets at Israel, they will not be able to shoot them all down. Iran will evntualy get a nuclear weapon and will use it, even if they know they will loose a war. The other problem is radiation goes where the wind blows so we can all suffer becouse a few power hungry muppets.

[charlie brown]

israel will never get past even all the missiles it knows about. my guess is iron dome is a bluff cause its all they can say to reassure its citizens. missile to missile engagement is still very immature. as a tax paying Israeli citizen i'd be concerned that my government is prepared to gamble my life with its propanganda. agree israel is not a democracy but a religious state, but do most israelie citizens know that? poor bastards, lovely people im sure (the one's that know they are). Make no mistake Iran will retaliate if attacked, and i wouldnt want my family living anywhere near the place (in any circumstances).

Iran will not know the attack is not a necular attack and will most likely attack with full retaliatory capability as it may not get another chance, and the BW and CW will have its intended effect upon the Israeli population, as the crazed Iranians; blinded with rage, use the opportunity to fully express themselves.

Lording a NC over the region is intolerable, and will not stand as element of an environmental peace solution, if peace is what is really being sought. Many doubt it.

[Joe]

Well, few Yiddish speaking crowd left a edict decades ago for English speaking people on what definition they should use for "anti-semite" label, like they need a lesson on how to comprehend their own mother-tongue language, wishful thinking on their part :D
Educated people know Arabs are Semites, unfortunately few are trying to fool uneducated people in believing Arabs are "anti-Semitic" and therefore "anti-themselves", it's as funny as Cambodians calling chinese; "anti-orientals"!

[gesi]

i smell antisemetism in the tone of some of the commentators. do we need any other prove that iran will attack or instigate an attack on isreal if they have the opportunity? it is simple, isreal has to prepare to defend herself before they are fried out of existence.i think america as the world leader should prepare for the out come of the war, and allow isreal do what they have to do. we all know how many times attempts have been made to wipe out the jews..americans should just imagine how painfull 9/11 was and compare it to the holocaust which the iranian president claims as false meaning is intention is to repeat the same thing..please let us not allow such things to happen again and people should do away with antisemetism, its so shamefull

[Victor]

Somehow, someone has got to stand up to Iran's threat to Israel.
The Iranian Leader does not recognise the state of Israel and has vowed to wipe it off world map.

The best form of defence is attatck

[Adiari, C]

What a world! Is life not sweet enough to be alive? Why must human fight a fellow human? Why will a man die and leave his children and family in sorrow in the name of fighting a war? Why will matters of religion, race, or ideological differences be a tool for conflicts, war and their attendant sorrows? Why must human be wicked to himself and his world?

Can’t we learn from history? Has any group, race, or sex benefitted from a war? May be it is time for Jesus Christ, the Prince of Peace, to return and take His rightful reign on earth.

[Tara]

The "Bipartisan Policy Institute" favors the U.S. striking the first blow--if only to prevent Israel from "taking unilteral action"? Who is the world power here? It boggles the mind that Israel is essentially trying to threaten the U.S. into compliance with its self-inflicted (Palestine) paranoid policies.

[josh]

lol what dumb comments, Israel has been in a proxy war with Iran for how long now, Iran continues to equip Israel's enemies which continues to further endanger more and more Israeli's, example : Hamas' and Hezbollah's capabilities of both hitting Tel Aviv, the last thing Israel wants is to add Nuclear warheads to the picture.

For Esther Haman Iran has also stated that its retalitation will be solely on Israel, and not on the Gulf oil reserves.

for Joe, there's no talk or plan to invade Iran as any attack will revolve around delaying Iran's nuclear program, thats it, the invasions will be to the north and to the south and Iran's proxy will likely get involved in the situation

[Esther Haman]

If Iran fought an 8 years war with battled hardened Iraqi forces with our help, under sanctions and in the middle of a revolution, it is hard to imagine that they would put their arms down and surrender after an Air strict on their nuclear facilities. That would allow Iran to send her Million man army to Iraq and Afghanistan and will bomb every oil facilities in the gulf, not to mention that then they have all the support and reason to build the Bomb and maybe then use it out of frustration. So, get ready for oil prices to jump to $400/B and long lines at the pumps with gas prices reaching to $10/G if not more. Are people under the impression that this war will be another 7 days war and be over in a week or a month? Think again, how long we been in Iraq and Afghanistan!!

All this blood letting just to appease 4 million Zionists to keep their Nuclear supremacy in the Middle East? What next? All the Muslims in the world will lay down and die? Hardly. This would give every Muslim in the world a reason to fight the US and its to heart its interest. You think we have problem with terrorism now, this war will make terrorism incidents to go up exponentially.

What is so hard about swapping the Iranian LEU with the fabricated enriched uranium rods that Iran needs for its cancer patient treatment inside Iran borders?! Do we have to fool Iran to give up its highest technological achievement and that would end things to our benefit! How is this going to go down in the history?

[Wildthing]

Wars are a false profit and they never solve anything but setting the causes and conditons for the next war. Dominance and submission, territoriality, and national gods and the willingness to rationalize acceptable collateral damage is something we will have to outgrow or we will be the cause of our own extinction as a failed evolutionary experiment.

[Joe]

It's amusing to hear such small country which is dependent on US handout for survival to pretend to be such a fearsome actor while her population and economy can not support any meaningful military offense beyond a few months of action, and to top it off, she's manipulating her new benefactor to spend blood and treasure instead of her to hurt the only other benefactor (Persia) she ever had throughout her history according to her own.
I don't see any fidelity on their part and that's one reason they were thrown out of every place they resided ever since they were chased out of Egypt for trying to destabilize Pharaoh's throne, now they are trying to hurt both US and Iran for her selfish gains, we don't expect thank you from them but expect their silence on matters which no one invited them to bud in!