LEBANON: A change in mood to forming a new government

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An apparent Saudi-Syrian rapprochement followed by a series of high-level meetings in Lebanon have raised hopes that the small Mediterranean country may soon have a government after months of political deadlock.

‘I think there is a change in mood,’ said Dr. Paul Salem, head of the Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut. ‘There’s a sense that things have been worked out a bit, and I think there is more optimism.’

In the wake of Syrian President Bashar Assad’s surprise visit to Saudi Arabia on Wednesday, Prime Minister Saad Hariri is wasting no time meeting with opposition lawmakers while President Michel Sleiman flexes his diplomatic muscles at the U.N. General Assembly in New York.

Hariri’s efforts appear to be paying off. Hezbollah lawmaker Mohammad Raad told local media Thursday that the party feels ‘there is common ground with Hariri over Cabinet formation.’ Local press also cited sources close to leading opposition Christian Gen. Michel Aoun describing the general’s meeting with Hariri as ‘open’ and ‘honest,’ although they would not confirm or deny whether they had reached an agreement over key issues.

In June, the U.S. and Saudi-backed March 14 Coalition reaffirmed its majority in parliament, defeating the Syrian and Iranian-supported opposition. But in the months that followed, March 14 suffered a number of setbacks, including the withdrawal of a key Druze ally and worsening relations between the two opposing sponsor states, Saudi Arabia and Syria.

Salem told the Times that Saudi Arabia and Syria’s rift over Lebanon appears to have more to do with political power struggles than specific issues like Syria’s role as a conduit for arming the militant group Hezbollah. ‘The issue was whether Hariri was going to be allowed to form a government or not,’ said Salem. ‘Would the opposition help Hariri by giving him an easy process, or would they drag him through the mud. It seems to be that, more than the real issues on the table, which have mostly been decided.’

After the elections, all factions appeared to agree that Hezbollah’s arms would only be discussed in the context of the ongoing national dialogue, and that the Cabinet would be divided between the majority, the the opposition and the president with 15, 10 and five seats, respectively.

But former March 14 die-hard Walid Jumblatt’s defection from the Hariri-led coalition threw the entire 15-10-5 equation into question, while the leading Christian opposition figure, Aoun, dug in his heels by insisting his son-in-law retain the telecommunications ministry. In September, Hariri stepped down as prime minister to protest the blocking of his Cabinet lineup, but was quickly reelected.

--Meris Lutz in Beirut