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LEBANON: With even Hezbollah’s OK, Hariri likely next prime minister

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Saad Hariri, leader of the U.S.-backed March 14 coalition, which successfully defended its status as the parliamentary majority in Sunday’s elections, is expected to be named Lebanon’s next prime minister, according to local news reports.

It appears that even Hariri’s political rivals in the Shiite Muslim militant movement Hezbollah have given him their blessing, with the party’s second in command, Naim Qassem, telling Reuters that Hariri is a ‘strong candidate’ for the premiership.

The oft-cited alternative candidate is former Prime Minister Najib Miqati, a telecommunications tycoon from Tripoli who maintains close relations with Damascus. The real contest, however, is likely to be over the office of parliamentary speaker and specific cabinet appointments..

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In past governments, the prime minister has been a consensus figure from the majority while the office of parliamentary speaker, who must be a Shiite, automatically went to Amal leader Nabih Berri.

But now, some voices within March 14 are holding out for the parliament speaker as well, hoping to appoint Hariri favorite Oqab Saqr instead. March 14 former minister Marwan Hamadeh told the pan-Arab daily Al Sharq al Awsat on Thursday that the coalition should not agree to Berri’s return except as part of a package deal that includes thorny Cabinet issues.

But the battle over Cabinet appointments cannot be broken down as easily as the electoral race, which pitted the Western-backed March 14 Coalition against the opposition, which includes Hezbollah and is openly backed by Iran and Syria. The Lebanese state operates on a complicated confessional system that allocates high government positions and certain ministries according to sect, which often leads to infighting.

Although the Maronite Christian president, Michel Suleiman, will remain, Lebanon’s opposing parties will have to agree on a Sunni Muslim prime minister, a Shiite parliamentary speaker and a Greek Orthodox Christian deputy prime minister.

The finance, interior, defense and foreign ministries also has to be divided evenly among Maronite, Sunni, Shiite and Greek Orthodox candidates.

Officially, the prime minister is appointed by the president and the Cabinet is formed by the prime minister before being voted on in parliament. Unofficially, it’s a knock-down, drag-out power struggle involving politicians, tribal leaders, paramilitary groups and foreign governments who have a stake in the outcome.

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So far, March 14 is standing firm against the opposition’s demand for the veto power it was granted after the Doha accord ended fighting between Hezbollah and pro-government forces on the streets of Beirut last spring. Opposition figure Gen. Michel Aoun has also said he will challenge the election results in several districts and is also demanding seven out of 30 seats in the new Cabinet.

Aoun’s demands will also undoubtedly be rejected by March 14, which may lead to a standoff, which may, in turn, lead to a ‘Doha II,’ another round of negotiations mediated by Qatar.

Official nominations are not likely to begin until the current parliament’s term expires this month, but it seems Lebanon’s entrenched political elite have already started the lengthy process of political haggling.

-- Meris Lutz in Beirut

Photo: A handout from the Lebanese photo agency Dalati and Nohra shows a child greeting Saad Hariri, leader of the Future Movement, in Beirut. Credit: European Pressphoto Agency

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