IRAN: Leadership 'more divided than ever,' analyst says
In a new commentary, Anthony Cordesman of the Center for Strategic & International Studies think tank in Washington, D.C., considers Iran’s political future after today’s address by the nation’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
“Khamenei has always had uncertain credentials as a religious scholar and he now has uncertain credibility as a leader. Everyone in Iran, the Middle East, and the world now has reason to question the legitimacy of every element of Iran's leadership and the Iranian revolution. The Iranian leadership now has to realize that it is more divided than was ever apparent before and that Iran's people and the world know it.”
Cordesman’s full commentary follows.
We need to be very careful not to rush out ahead of events in judging what is happening in Iran. We do not yet know whether Ahmadinejad will stay, whether Mousavi will somehow be given a second chance, and if the ongoing political struggle will affect the security of the Supreme Leader. Mass demonstrations are not national popular uprisings, and popular uprisings do not always lead to successful revolutions. Truly radical change may come, but it has not come yet. One has only to contrast the radically different outcomes of what happened in East Germany and Tiananmen Square to realize that "experts" cannot predict the nature and outcome of the events now taking place in Iraq.
What is clear ... from his Friday sermon is that the Supreme Leader has backed Ahmadinejad and the election. It also is clear that any reliance on the Council of Guardians to review the election puts the review firmly under those loyal to the Supreme Leader. Since Khamenei controls the media, security forces, military, intelligence, and justice system this should ultimately give him the power to suppress popular protests -- particularly if he continues to rely on quiet, selective arrests rather than the kind of open repression that could trigger a true popular uprising.
At the same time, while the Supreme Leader did firmly back Ahmadinejad and the legitimacy of the election in his Friday prayer, and he cannot put this genie back in the bottle. Khamenei has always had uncertain credentials as a religious scholar and he now has uncertain credibility as a leader. Everyone in Iran, the Middle East, and the world now has reason to question the legitimacy of every element of Iran's leadership and the Iranian revolution. The Iranian leadership now has to realize that it is more divided than was ever apparent before and that Iran's people and the world know it. It has to see just how much anger there is at the Mullah's level of social repression and the failures in the Iranian economy. The leadership can only quickly ease the social repression side of this equation. It would take years of effort to make a major difference in economic development. As a result, even apparent success by the current leadership will to some extent be lasting failure. This may not have a Berlin Wall kind of ending, but Iran is not China. The lasting impact is much more likely to be similar to the decades long impact of the repression of the uprisings in Hungary and Czechoslovakia.
It also is impossible to rule out some form of Mousavi victory, both now and over the months to come. Whatever happens, if Ahmadinejad stays without a truly legitimate election, the result will fester, not go away. Every embarrassing new piece of excessive rhetoric, every new threat to Iran's neighbors, every new problem in the economy, and every new act of social repression will be a reminder of the fact that Iran's leadership has questionable legitimacy at best.
The less visible problem will be Khamenei. He did not exactly buy his Ayatollahship as a mail order degree, but he largely bypassed the process that would have demonstrated that he had the level of scholarship required. Now he has cast the political and ethical legitimacy of the role of Supreme Leader into doubt. Many, if not most, true senior Shi'ite scholars and clerics have always had questions about such a role, particularly outside Iran. They now have far more reason to question whether any one individual can ever have the sanctity and wisdom required. The issues raised by other key Ayatollahs like Montazari, and mainstream "quietest" clerics, are ones that will now take on a whole new and lasting character and have far more impact and credibility.
In short, no one can yet predict Iran's political future, but some things seem clear. Even if Ahmadinejad stays, and the current regime outlasts the current upheavals, events will play out over months and years to come. At the same time, one needs to be cautious about even the most dramatic change. The struggles in Iran may have led to major popular unrest, but they are still struggles within Iran's revolutionary elite. Even the most dramatic form of Mousavi victory never meant Iran will cease pursuing nationalist goals, stop seeking nuclear weapons and long range missiles, accept Israel, halt its efforts to develop Shi'ite influence and some form of alliances that give Iran added power, or end its opportunistic efforts to expand its influence at its neighbors' expense. Even the most dramatic change may not make critical differences to the security and stability of the region.
-- Alexandra Zavis in Los Angeles
Full coverage of Iran's presidential election and its aftermath.
Is this email I received true? Can someone please verify?
Hot off the press. I don’t know if this is valid but if it is, you can see why they want to stay to milk the country
Foreign bank accounts of
Iranian leaders
cid:1.479638636@web65104.mail.ac2.yahoo.com
1) Ali Khamenei
- Sparkasse Bank (Frankfurt/Germany) Acct.# 234075617: DM 112.1 Millions
- Corner Bank (Geneve/CH) Acct. # 217824: US$ 97 Millions
- Banque Cantonale (Lausanne/CH) Acct. # 71713: US$ 73.2 Millions
cid:2.479638637@web65104.mail.ac2.yahoo.com
2) Ali Akbar Hashemi Rasfandjani
- Union Bank Suisse (Geneve/CH) Acct.# 223870390: SF 532.5 Millions
- Societe Generale ( Z urich/CH) Acct.# 30064183: DM 477.2 Millions
- Sparkasse (Ciborg/Germany) Acct. # 2957132: DM 238.2 Millions
cid:3.479638637@web65104.mail.ac2.yahoo.com
3) Mohammad Ali Tasskhiri
- Societe Generale (Geneve/Ch) Acct.# 500032654: DM 280.7 Millions
- Midland Bank (London/UK) Acct.# 832-150270: BP 12.2 Millions
- Dressdner bank (Dusserdolf/Germany) Acct.# 8354783: DM 48.3 Millions
cid:4.479638637@web65104.mail.ac2.yahoo.com
4 ) Mohammad Golpayegani
- Credit Bank Suisse (Geneve/CH) Acct.# CEO7680: SF 85.7 Millions
cid:5.479638637@web65104.mail.ac2.yahoo.com
5) Bijan Namdar Z angene
- Union Bank Suisse (Geneve/CH) Acct.# 314380320: US$ 141.7 Millions
6) Habibollah Asgar Aladi
- Corner Bank (Geneve/CH) Acct. # 3983BHK: US$ 180 Millions
cid:6.479638637@web65104.mail.ac2.yahoo.com
7) Ahmad Jannati
- Midland Bank (London/UK) Acct.# 92114016: BP 54.2 Millions
cid:7.479638637@web65104.mail.ac2.yahoo.com
8) Abdollah Nategh Nouri
- Union Banque Suisse (Geneve/CH) Acct.# 2102120321ND: USD 123.9 Millions
- Deutsh bank (Hamburg/Germany) Acct.# 03223486: DM 64.1 Millions
9) Mohsen Rafighdoost
- Union Banque Suisse (Geneve/CH) Acct.# 2183130687: USD 122.7 Millions
10) Mohsen Hashemi Bahremani
- Deutsh bank (Munchen 3/Germany) Acct.# 1732736: DM 370.7 Millions
- Credit Bank (Geneve/CH) Acct.# 928530FC: USD 178.2 Millions
cid:8.479638637@web65104.mail.ac2.yahoo.com
11) Abbas V aez-Tabassi
- Corner Bank (Geneve/CH) Acct.# FAH7272: SF 97.2 Millions
- Sparkasse (Hamburg/Germany) Acct #. DFH72251660: USD 216.7 MillionsÂ
12) Hossein Shariatmadari
- Midland Bank (London/UK) Acct.# 34414011: BP 37.8 Millions
Image removed by sender.
13) Mohsen Rezai
- Union Banque Suisse (Geneve/CH) Acct.# 442760430: USD 78.2 Millions
- Credit Bank (Geneve/CH) Acct.# FAH7967: SF 52.7 Millions
14) Massood Movahedian
- Commerz Bank (Koln/Germany) Acct.# 3528817: DM 287.8 Millions
Image removed by sender.
15) Kamal Kharrazi
- Corner Bank (Geneve/CH) Acct.# AMF4567: USD 18.2 Millions
cid:12.479638637@web65104.mail.ac2.yahoo.com
16) Ali-Reza Mo-ayeri
- Societe Generale (Geneve/CH) Acct.# 50024814: USD12.6 MillionsÂ
17) Hossein Kordi
- Corner Bank (Geneve/CH) Acct.#14710025: USD 14.7 Millions
18) Abbas-Ali Forooghi
- Corner Bank (Geneve/CH) Acct.# 12930034: USD 10.7 Millions
Posted by: Mehernaz Farsi | June 27, 2009 at 01:23 PM
it is not the people of iran, anymore than the people of ww2 germany. it is their corrupt, godless thugs and murdererous governing class beating a voiceless population, dividing and conquering the voices of reason. the jackboots of the hitler era have quietly moved to Iran (Persia). Iran "militias" are no different from the "brown shirts" coming in the middle of the night to silence any opposition. I fear the only thing these attempts will bring is the slaughter of innocent lambs, among wolves whose only desire is kill. Shame on true believers. the children of good will not forget. Revenge is not one-sided.
Posted by: vs | June 23, 2009 at 10:42 AM
Poor Esther,
You think Ali Khamenei has is legitimate because he was hand picked by Ayatollah Khomeini?
If anything that makes him illigitimate. Why does one person have the right to impose his will on an entire population? Iran's government is a farce.
Posted by: Mike | June 19, 2009 at 02:57 PM
Great insight everybody...check out Rock the Vote's website and sign our statement of support in an effort to preserve democracy in Iran.
http://www.rockthevote.com/campaigns/iran/
Posted by: Chandan Sharma | June 19, 2009 at 01:10 PM
Alexandra, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has been a leader in Iran since 1989, I don't know were you been or were you are getting the idea that his leadership is not legitimate. since he was hand picked by Ayatollah Khomeini himself!! This type of articles have only one purpose and that is baseless propaganda.
Posted by: Esther Haman | June 19, 2009 at 12:29 PM
Mehran-
We stand in solidarity with you and the people of Iran. Even if the situation stays the same, the bravery of the Iranian people is an example to the world. Always know that there is one American girl in Florida who is praying for her friends in Iran.
Posted by: Gina Marie in the USA | June 19, 2009 at 12:15 PM
Creation of anything worthwhile requires patience.
Iran, like the USA, needs to, and will, go through a process that we all must be patient with.
WE must assume the goodness of Iran will emerge from this chaos and Iran will become a constructive partner and contributor in human events earth wide.
I see Persia as a proud culture with a good heart and with much to offer the west...
But, we must be patient...
Posted by: Columbus Guy | June 19, 2009 at 11:49 AM
"One has only to contrast the radically different outcomes of what happened in East Germany and Tiananmen Square to realize that "experts" cannot predict the nature and outcome of the events now taking place in Iraq."
Iraq??
ROTFLMAO
Posted by: Laughing | June 19, 2009 at 11:44 AM
Dear Readers
I'm really unhappy for what is going on Iran. Actually thing is going bad. For me, all the face of the government and supreme leader have cleared at night and more today. The supreme leader addressed the leader of protests and said that he will be done more badly if the parades continue. It means that the supporters of Khamenei will kill more and more. Things here are in a fact that you cannot imagine I can just say an example “The dogs of Napoleon in Animal Farm story". The supporters of Khamenei will kill all the people like what the dogs have done. So what we could do? Will Mr. Mousavi bow out? I don’t know what really will be done but I believe that Mr. Ahmadinejad will be the sinister president for four years more.
Best regards
I can not write my name, The dogs will kill me.
Posted by: Mehran | June 19, 2009 at 11:29 AM
I think the worldwide trend for a couple of decades has been away from authoritarian systems. Maybe we should rest our hopes on that.
Posted by: Lester Hunt | June 19, 2009 at 10:54 AM