IRAN: A week of war cries, sanctions talk and protests begins

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A perfect storm of controversy and uproar over Iran’s nuclear program is coming together this week, with three big events coinciding that could dramatically escalate tensions in the Middle East.

The biggest event, of course, is the United Nations General Assembly meeting, where both Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and President Bush are scheduled to speak on Tuesday and a bunch of protests and campaigns against Iran are scheduled to begin.

The board of governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency, the U.N.’s nuclear watchdog, is also scheduled to meet this week, with Iran a top item on its agenda.

In Iran, Jerusalem Day is coming up Friday. It’s also Sacred Defense Week, marking the Iraqi invasion of Iran and the beginning of the 1980-88 conflict that shaped the country, as well as annual Army Week. (Iran is keen on such commemorations.)

It’s typically a period when Iranian leaders ramp up militaristic, anti-Israeli and pro-Palestinian rhetoric that should give those opposed to Tehran’s ambitions plenty of rhetorical ammunition to make the case that Iran is a menace to the region.

Iran doesn’t have nuclear weapons, and its leaders say they don’t want them. But Western and Israeli officials, as well as most arms-control experts, suspect the country is trying to obtain at least the capacity to become a nuclear power quickly if it so chooses.

Iran also has what human rights experts describe as a very poor record on maintaining rights for women, ethnic and religious minorities, juvenile criminals and political opponents of the government. Iran says its human rights record is no worse than other countries in the region and considers the issue a ploy to put pressure on Iran.

Swarms of protesters will greet Ahmadinejad’s arrival in New York. Some decry Iran’s human rights record while others, like the ill-fated ‘Stop Iran’ rally that was forced to pull invitations to elected officials after Sen. Hillary Clinton canceled her scheduled appearance, will oppose its aspirations to obtain advanced nuclear technology.

Several ‘grassroots’ campaigns have also begun, including United Against a Nuclear Iran, a self-described coalition of unnamed human rights, labor and humanitarian groups. They are led by a group of that include neo-conservative Iraq war advocates R. James Woolsey, Fouad Ajami and Leslie Gelb, who pushed for the invasion ‘as the best medicine for anti-Americanism around the world I can imagine.’

For its part, Iran is leading a drive to get a voice on the IAEA’s 35-member governing board, demanding seats for itself or for its ally Syria. Today IAEA general secretary Mohamed ElBaradei voiced ‘serious concern’ about Iran’s failure to clear up questions about alleged nuclear weapons activities that apparently took place up until 2003.

At the U.N., Iran has shored up its support from Security Council members China and Russia, which announced on Saturday that it would not support an additional round of economic sanctions on Iran.

European diplomats in the know have long whispered to The Times that they didn’t think they could get another round of sanctions against until early next year, especially after heightened tensions between the West and Moscow following the short war in Georgia.

Meanwhile, the tough talk continues. It’s hard to figure out what’s real and what’s bluster.

Ahmadinejad said Sunday that if any country attacked Iran, ‘the country’s armed forces will cut his hand before he can pull the trigger.’

In Israel, former general and army chief Moshe Ya’alon called war with Iran ‘inevitable,’ likening Ahmadinejad’s Iran to Hitler’s Germany.

Israel and its friends are trying hard to paint Iran as a dire threat to the world, and not just a strategic challenge for the Jewish state. But they continue to find themselves out on a limb, with international inspectors, Europe, China, Russia and even the cash-strapped, militarily overextended America taking a more nuanced view.

-- Borzou Daragahi in Beirut

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Photos, from top to bottom:

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad boards a plane at Tehran’s Mehrabad airport on Sunday as he leaves Iran for New York to address the U.N. General Assembly. Credit: STR / AFP / Getty Images

An Iranian Kurd living in the Iraqi city of Erbil protests with her mouth bound in front of the U.N. headquarters in support of Iranian Kurdish prisoners being held in neighboring Iran on Sunday. Credit: Safin Hamed / AFP / Getty Images

Iran’s Shahab-3 medium-range missile with a maximum range of 1,200 miles has caused international concern, especially in Israel, as the missiles could reach all parts of the Jewish state, at a military parade marking the Iraqi invasion in 1980. Credit: Abedin Taherkenareh / European Pressphoto Agency

Director General of the IAEA Mohamed ElBaradei, left, and Iran’s Ambassador to the IAEA Ali Asghar Soltanieh arrive for the International Atomic Energy Agency board meeting at Vienna’s International Center, on Sept. 22. Credit: Hans Punz / Associated Press