IRAN: Watching closely for next step in nuclear standoff
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Iran’s ambiguous reply to a proposed offer of negotiations over its nuclear program has set off a flurry of confused diplomatic and military activity around the world.
At the United Nations, U.S. and European diplomats have begun pressing for a fourth round of sanctions on the country. But according to a comprehensive analysis by Reuters’ U.N. correspondent Louis Charbonneau, it’s going to be an uphill battle to impose quick, substantive sanctions against the wishes of Moscow and Beijing:
Analysts and diplomats from Security Council member states said the Western powers would most likely get a fourth sanctions resolution on Iran through the sharply divided U.N. Security Council. But it will not be an easy process. With a U.S. election in November, if a new resolution goes through, there may be a new U.S. president in office when the council votes on it. Analysts also expect that it will most likely be a moderate toughening of previous penalties. Iran’s oil and gas industries remain off limits.
According to Iran analyst Kaveh Afrasiabi, writing today in the Asia Times, Iran is playing a cautious diplomatic game meant to ease Western pressure:
The delicate hands of Iranian diplomacy have steadily pushed the issue forward, from its own package of proposals, which was submitted to the sextet ahead of their ‘incentive package’ to Iran, to Iran’s ‘non-paper’ that delineated a multi-stage, rational negotiation track, to Iran’s one-page document, stating Tehran’s readiness to provide a ‘clear response’ to the incentive package while demanding a response to Iran’s own package as well as its stated concerns and requests for clarifications.
In Tehran, officials this week received Ollie Heinonen, a ranking arms control expert at the International Atomic Energy Agency, for closed-door talks about Iran’s nuclear program.
Meanwhile, despite the heightened diplomatic activity, reports have surfaced of a potential escalation of military activity. The Associated Press’ Jerusalem bureau reports that Israel has beefed up its military capacity with new fighter jets and submarines with an eye toward taking out Iran’s constellation of nuclear facilities itself.
The Engllish-language Kuwait Times also reported this week that the government of the Persian Gulf kingdom was taking security and humanitarian measures to prepare itself in case of a conflict involving Iran, the U.S. or Israel on its doorsteps.
What’s the rush?
‘An unnamed senior official revealed that the government has learned that [U.S.] two aircraft carriers are scheduled to arrive in the Gulf and the Red Sea in preparation for the expected war at any time,’ the paper reported.
Iran, too, deployed military as well as diplomatic tools. This week it claimed to have tested a new missile with a range of 180 miles, perfect for firing at targets in the Persian Gulf in case of war.
The war option may not be all that it’s cracked up to be, says a report to be released today by the respected Institute for Science and International Security.
The report, previewed in a Washington Post article concludes that Iran’s nuclear facilities are too widely dispersed (click on map at right) and well protected to be destroyed by air strikes, and that after an attack, Iran could easily reassemble its program and focus exclusively on creating uranium for nuclear weapons.
Currently, Iran is only producing reactor-grade enriched uranium suitable for electricity generation.
Iranians showed no signs they were about to cave in on the issue. Friday prayer leader Ayatollah Mohammed Imami-Kashani told the faithful today that Iran should continue to resist Western demands to either halt or stop expanding its uranium enrichment program to get negotiations started.
‘We are ready for any negotiations based on just and equal stand,’ he said in his sermon. ‘By threatening, you can not force Iranian nation to bow to your pressure.’
— Borzou Daragahi in Beirut and Ramin Mostaghim in Tehran
photo. Credit: Fars News Agency. Map: Some of Iran’s known nuclear installations. Credit: Agence France Presse
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