IRAN: Nuclear program no easy target

The devil is in the details of Iran's nuclear program.

That’s the message of a new report published by the Institute for Science and International Security, a respected Washington think-tank which has for years monitored Iran’s efforts to unlock the secrets of the atom.

The study, co-authored by former nuclear inspector David Albright, bears close reading.

It argues that while bombing Iran’s nuclear facilities may sound like a plausible solution to slowing or halting Iran’s drive toward mastering technology that could be used to create atomic weapons, it likely won't work, and might instead backfire badly.

Iran says its nuclear program is aimed at producing energy for its growing population. Israel and the U.S. doubt that, and they've led the charge to force or convince Iran to stop sensitive parts of its nuclear program, refusing to take the military option off the table.

The problem, write Albright and his colleagues David Brannan and Jacqueline Shire, is in the nature of Iran’s nuclear program.

Israel bombed Iraq’s Osirak plutonium reactor in 1981 and Syria’s alleged reactor in 2007, delivering possible setbacks to those country’s alleged nuclear programs.

But comparing those strikes to any assault on Iran “neglects the important differences between a gas centrifuge uranium enrichment program and a reactor-based program,” the report says.

Iran’s program is geographically diverse, relatively advanced and hardened against a military strike.

The multiple strikes required to destroy the uranium enrichment plant at Natanz or the reprocessing facilities in Isfahan would require “far more military ordinance than that used on either reactor attacked by Israel,” the report said.

What's more, Iran's program is likely easy to reassemble even after an airstrike.

Iran has also had years to “acquire centrifuge items abroad, often illicitly, allowing it to create reserve stocks of critical equipment and raw materials,” the report says.

Iran has already stockpiled enough uranium gas to produce 30 nuclear bombs if it wanted to or could enrich it to weapons-grade levels.

“Destroying the facility would not eliminate this stockpile,” the report says, noting that the material has likely already been moved.

In addition, Iran's homegrown nuclear industry now has the capacity to produce its own components. Even if the U.S. and Israel bomb Iran’s nuclear facilities to smithereens, Iran can quickly “replicate” enriched-uranium producing machines. The next time around, they may kick out the inspectors.

Foreign intelligence agencies lack precise details about Iran’s nuclear facilities. Though the International Atomic Energy Association, the United Nations’ nuclear watchdog, has fairly thorough understanding of the Natanz and Isfahan facilities, it lacks information about where the components for those facilities are being made.

Unlike the North Korean and Iraqi plutonium reactors, the gas centrifuge plants Iran is relying on to produce enriched uranium are tough to pinpoint on satellite photos.

“Intelligence agencies simply lack reliable information on the full-scope of Iran’s centrifuge facilities and activities,” the reports says.

Iranians are clever at disguising their nuclear facilities. Up until 2003, Iran used to produce parts for its nuclear industry at a former clock factory, a former automobile spare parts factory, a cutting tools workshop and other factories dispersed in discrete locations all around the country.

“Considering the modular, replicable nature of centrifuge plants, we conclude that an attack on Iran’s nuclear program is unlikely to significantly degrade Iran’s ability to reconstitute its gas centrifuge program,” the report says. “It is time to set aside the military option and concentrate instead on credible diplomatic approaches to end Iran’s growing nuclear weapons capabilities.”

— Borzou Daragahi in Beirut

Photo: Satellite photo shows general area of alleged nuclear component manufacturing site called Sanam Electronic Industries. It was allegedly somewhere within a densely packed residential section of northeastern Tehran. Credit: Insitute for Science and International Security

Comments

[ts]

Iran has enough oil to provide them energy for the next 130 years, they don't need nuclear power for energy. They only have one purpose and that is to use it for mass disstruction. They are willing to share that nuclear power with all muslim and terrorist groups. They pose a serious threat to global security and should be stopped!
Even though U.S. and Isreal have nuclear cappabilities, unlike iran, we value life....iran doesnt and wont hesitate to use it!!!!

[Tom Westergaard]

Israel already possesses several hundred nuclear weapons. Israel does not produce electricity for public consumption using nuclear energy. Israel's nuclear program is devoted solely to the production of Weapons of Mass Destruction. Therefore it's logical to attack and take out Israeli nuclear facilities first.

[TK]

The Israeli and the United States Governments, both with powerful nuclear arsenals and self-righteous pretensions to have the right to attack anyone anywhere over perceived threats to "National Security", have made it clear that they want to attack Iran on the grounds that Iran is a serious nuclear and regional threat.

Meanwhile, Iran has never even invaded anybody in its entire modern history, its supreme leader continues to issues Fatwas against the use of nuclear weapons, and the IAEA has yet to find any evidence of a viable nuclear weapons program. On top of that, America's own intelligence agencies recently said as much too, that there is no evidence of an active nuclear weapons program.

This situation allows criminal states like Israel to coerce and bully other states and other peoples and even blackmail the entire world. It allows Israel to bomb Tunis, Baghdad, Syria and threaten to bomb the Egyptian Aswan Dam and then tell the helpless victims “hit me back if you dare.”

[Amin]

----------The United States should pick up the ball on this and do what must be done. Nuke Iran. As Professor Morris noted in his piece. It's either now or later. America should be a real ally and do what's right.-----------

The desire to mass murder Iranians is strong in you.

So many psychotic anti-Iranianites in this world.

[michael arronson]

This report supports Israeli Professor Benny Morris's July 17 editorial in the NY Times. For the very reasons stated in the report the nuclear option is the only effective way to go.

Sanctions and Diplomacy have not worked and no senior official on either side believes it will be decisive.

The United States should pick up the ball on this and do what must be done. Nuke Iran. As Professor Morris noted in his piece. It's either now or later. America should be a real ally and do what's right.