LEBANON: Hezbollah appears set to dominate government

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Hezbollah and its allies are again apparently the big winners in the latest round of struggling over political power in Lebanon.

Nothing is official yet, but insiders say Hezbollah’s main Christian ally, the group led by lawmaker Michel Aoun (below right), will likely have a significant share of government posts in the next government.

‘Formally, the Christian group in the opposition has won important portfolios, but it is still Hezbollah, and through it Iran, which have the upper hand,’ said Ali Al-Amine, a Beirut-based political analyst and editor of a local newspaper.

A high-profile accord brokered in Qatar last May among Lebanese political players ended an escalating armed conflict and led to the nomination of a long-awaited president. The deal gave the Hezbollah-led opposition and Hassan Nasrallah (above, left) veto power over government decisions in the next government.

But until recently, wrangling over the main portfolios had slowed down formation of a Cabinet. Finally, after six weeks of negotiations, Prime Minister-designate Fouad Siniora reached an agreement on Saturday with the opposition regarding the distribution of ministries. He told reporters after meeting with Aoun that the Cabinet lineup will be announced in the ‘near future.’

Although it will only serve until the middle of next year or so, the upcoming Cabinet -- by distributing perks, positions and patronage to various Lebanese -- might well determine the winners and losers of crucial parliamentary elections scheduled to take place in 2009.

The result of those elections may determine whether Hezbollah, which is backed by Tehran and Damascus, or the Western-backed coalition will take control of the country in the coming years.

Based on the agreement, the opposition will get the ministries of labor, youth and sports, foreign affairs, health and industry as well as other key service portfolios -- public works, telecommunications, agriculture and power -- which will go to the bloc of Hezbollah’s Christian ally, Aoun.

Control of these highly visible ministries gives Aoun a chance to show his administrative acumen to potential Christian voters.

The critical ministries of defense and interior will be chosen by President Michel Suleiman. Reportedly, Elias Murr will remain the defense minister, although Hezbollah had objected to his nomination earlier, accusing him of belonging to the pro-U.S. camp. Unexpectedly, the sensitive Interior Ministry will be allocated to a prominent lawyer from outside the conventional political arena, Ziad Baroud.

Hezbollah seems to be satisfied with the distribution of the spoils. The group has decided to give up part of its share in the government to its allies as a gesture of support.

On Monday, Nabil Kawouk, a prominent Hezbollah official, told a rally:

Despite the tentative agreement, the formation of the Cabinet has not been announced yet because the Western-backed group, a coalition of Sunni, Christian and Druze parties, has yet to decide on how to distribute the ministries under its control.

But it seems already that the Christians in this coalition will control fewer posts than Aoun.

Under Lebanon’s unique political system, power is shared among Christians, Sunnis, Shiites and Druze. The country is polarized nowadays between two camps led by Sunnis and Shiites. Christians are divided between the two groups.

-- Raed Rafei in Beirut

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