IRAQ: Shiite vs. Shiite battle mounts

The relative peace created by the surge in Iraq is a fading memory. Talk of imminent strife dominates the news coming out of Iraq.

Cleric Muqtada Sadr, his forces under seige in Basra and Baghdad, warns of all-out war if the Iraqi government continues its offensive. Here's a translation of an extract from the statement he issued Saturday:

I am directing the final warning and talk to the Iraqi government to return to the right pathway, the peaceful way, reject violence towards its people — or they will be like Saddam's government. If the government would not return to the right pathway and rein in the militias that have interfered, we will announce an open war until liberation.

The Times' Baghdad Bureau chief Tina Susman also reports that Iran's ambassador to Baghdad praised Iraq's efforts in the southern city of Basra while, somewhat confusingly, condemning the U.S.-backed Iraqi operation against the same elements in Baghdad's Sadr City. Here's Ambassador Hassan Kazemi-Qomi:

The U.S. insistence on continuing this military action is a mistake, and it will lead to negative results that the Iraqi government will have to shoulder the responsibility for.

More troubles on another front line between rival Shiite factions. The Times' Ned Parker, Raheem Salman and Saad Fakhrildeen in Najaf and Baghdad report on ominous developments in the holy city of Najaf, the spiritual capital of Iraq's majority Shiite Muslims:

Clerics and politicians speak in hushed tones about the names drawn up for assassination. Guards stand outside their compounds clutching assault rifles, and handguns rest on desks. No one can be trusted. All sides fear that dark times are coming to Najaf, the spiritual capital of Iraq's Shiite Muslims....The poisonous atmosphere of treachery and paranoia has consequences far beyond the alleyways of this ancient shrine city.

According to the report, if the all-important city of Najaf goes, so may the entire U.S. project in Iraq:

If it descends into violence, the entire Shiite south will almost certainly follow suit: U.S. forces will be stretched, the chances of a troop drawdown diminished. The Shiite parties involved will probably look to Iran to broker an end to the crisis. And chances for real political process will be on hold.

Finally, former New York Times reporter Judith Miller (yeah, that Judy Miller — accused of regurgitating Bush administration misinformation regarding Saddam Hussein's non-existent weapons of mass destruction program) pens an opinion piece based on her recent trip to Baghdad.

She argues that it would be a mistake for the U.S. military to get tangled up in the brewing fight between Sadr and the Shiite factions represented by the Maliki government (which until recently included the Sadrists). Here's Miller:

Could things get worse? Yes. And they very well might if Washington, in the name of supporting the democratically elected Maliki government, gets our forces further embroiled in a battle among competing Shiite factions. ... Iraqis see the attack as an effort by Maliki — and by his ally of convenience, Abdelaziz Hakim, another Shiite leader who heads the Iranian-backed Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq — to neuter Sadr and his more numerous, better-organized network in advance of provincial elections next October.

— Times staff writer

Photo: Supporters of Muqtada Sadr carry the casket of one of his deputies, assassinated in the holy city of Najaf last week. Credit: AFP

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Comments

[Shag]

Any of you who pretend to know what would happen in Iraq if we exit are full of manure. Nothing about this war is predictable. The country is majority shia and Iran already has a heavy influence in the country. We are the fuel for all that is trouble there now.
Sadr wants his fighters not to fight the Iraqi Army, but to continue to fight the U.S. Ethnic cleansing has, and continues to take place. According to Patraeus' own estimate, there's only about 2k al Qaeda there. Once we're out, there is no common enemy. It's worth a shot, cause this damned sure is not working.

[Hannah]

Freedom,
I agree with you that Peter is speaking nothing but nonsense, but I must say I strongly disagree with you as well. The US was wrong in going into Iraq, as there was no plan whatsoever as in what would happen after the eradication of Saddam and not to mention the Iraqi Infrastructure, etc. is now in ruins, but may I ask what is to happen if the Mhadi army was to expel their "invaders" now? I can tell you. The Iraq we know now will seem like heaven. It will be an all out civil war. you say that the Mahdi army should attack the American Troops with all their strength, but can you really believe that this is the way to solve this? Do we really want more blood, death, and fighting on our hands? If american troops are really guilty of what you say, then do you belielve that your people should stoop to that level instead of rising above it and striving for peace? It is people like you who create problems of this nature. There is no way that we can live peacefully among one another if all we can say is fight back. Violently.

[Freedom]

Peter or peterpan,

You really need to educate yourself and READ a few things before posting here. What stupid non-sense are you talking about???
The real enemy of Iraqi's are US politicians in DC and London. 2 million Iraqis misplaced, probably 1 million dead and hurt in the past 5 years, extreme destruction of the country, mental problems for the kids, etc. All because some idiot in DC claimed that Iraq has WMD and they even didn't have HCL as a chemical !
Iraqi's have every right to fight to kick invaders out.....Mahdi army has been extremely patient so far. They should attack all out and fight for their freedom. Why should US contractors get free pass on killing Iraqi civilians? Why should ment be naked in prison and played with American female guards? where is "freedom and justice" in that????
USA ruined Iraq. It is Iraqi's right to fight and kill as many American GI as they can.
Mahdi army should fight with honor to free their homeland.

[Hamid]

Looks like Sadr is bluffing to me. We should call his bluff.

For someone who keeps assassination death squads, Sadr has a lot of guts to call on NGOs to investigate human rights violations against the Mahdi army.

[kite]

The only accomplishment made by the War Hawks in Washington DC is the establishment of an Islamic State and the promotion of its Religion.
The Cleric Mugtada Sadr, his forces are considered liberators to the majority of the Iraqi civilians. Rent the movie Red Dawn. http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0087985

[Realist]

The Shiites just can't govern effectively. It will take the Sunnis in a deal with the Kurds to put Iraq back together.

US will be stuck until then. Rice Cakes is a nice lady but she isn't capable of doing the job. It will take someone like Jim Baker to come out of retirement and put the thing together.
It's the only thing that makes sense. Bushy should have been told by someone that Shiites ain't going to shake it. To cosy with Iran.
Get Jim to broker the deal; then Sunnis and Kurds withdraw
and trigger a new election. Time consuming but we have to deal with the mess as it is. If it can't be completed before election in US? Then so be it!

[Amy Proctor]

Peter, no, Moqtada al-Sadr is in Najaf studying in seminary.

[Amy Proctor]

Actually, it's the wisest thing we can do to get involved in the struggle between al-Sadr and the clerics who oppose him. We should be funding the clerics who support the Sheik Ali Najafi's fatwah that only the Iraqi government has the right to bear arms. We should also be supporting the neighborhoods of those clerics with increased essential services, economic perks and whatever else to secure their support of a long time strategy for a stable Iraq.

This is how Anbar was won. Now this is how the rest of Iraq will be won.

[Ralph Spyer]

The people of England have been ied in Mesopotamia [IRAQ] into a trap from which it will be hard to escape with dignity and honor. They have been tricked into it by a steady witholding of information. The Baghdad communques are beleated,insincere,incompleat, Things have been far worse than the public knows.We are to-day not far from a disaster. Aug.2nd 1920 Sunday Times T.E. LAWRENCE.[LAWRENCE OF ARABIA]

[Esteban]

Peter, you're speaking a lot of gibberish here. Read more carefully. Maliki's main backer is Hakim, the leader of the SIIC, which is supported by Iran. Iran praised Maliki's actions in Basra. Elements of Sadr's militia may have some ties to Iran, but the main Iranian-backed militia, the Badr Brigades, supports Maliki and opposes Sadr. Too complicated for you?

[Fred]

Our real enemies are in Pakistan and Afghanistan. We're just sacrificing our troops in Iraq to appease the jihadists and civilian contractors. Let's get out of there and fight the real war or come home.

[Rob Spooner]

Iraq should invade Iran? With what? They have no army, no air force, no navy of any consequence.

Iraq couldn't successfully invade Iran when it had one of the larger military establishments in the world. Why would they try now? What would they attempt to achieve?

Peter seems to have an odd view of Iraqi political reality. When the dust settles, we will be gone, Iran will still be there, and whatever government rules in Baghdad will be on warm terms with them.

[David]

The surge isn't the driving force behind the cooling period as one can easily see. Sadr and those behind him seem to call the shots. Eventually the US will have to leave and let Iraq decide for themselves what they want and not what the US wants. It is not a call for the US to tell the world what government to have since the US has major problems with their own style of government.

[Jon Parker]

We are in Big trouble with this situation in Iraq. Forget Iran; yes, they will continue to have direct influence in the situaion, but once near total breakdown occurs, what will Suadi Arabia do? It will be interesting to see how much of an ally they truly are with regards to our goals. Additionally, why is there no discussion regarding the Muslim faith; which in no way allows for a democratic state, such as what we are tying to force upon them.

[Peter]

OK, isn't Sadr in Iran?

If it was me Maliki, I would say OK, Sadr has declared war on Iraq and any Country that harbors him will be in direct conflict and will certainly face an offensive.

As Iraqi's this battle is between Iraqi's, and the US will not be involved. If it takes Iraq to invade Iran while harboring Sadr, then so be it.

If it's war Iran and others want then they shall get it. As of this time Sadr is a fugitive of Iraq for declaring war against us.

To the Iraqi people, do you want to be controlled by Iran/Sadr or do you want to fight for freedom?

[groingo]

Can you say "POTTERY BARN"?