Emmy inside track: The race for best drama actress

Five of our forum moderators believe Julianna Margulies ("The Good Wife") will win the Emmy for best TV drama actress: Chris Beachum, Matthew Cormier, Marcus Dixon, Darrin Dortch and Matt Noble. But beware: that's what most pundits thought last year when Kyra Sedgwick ("The Closer") finally won after four previous defeats. Our other moderator, Rob Licuria, disagrees, picking Elisabeth Moss ("Mad Men") to prevail this year. That's a curious choice considering Moss must compete directly against costar January Jones. I think all of our pundits are underestimating Katey Sagal ("Sons of Anarchy"). If she scores the first Emmy nomination of her career, the recent Golden Globe champ could bag the TV academy prize next. Below, our pundits' rankings in this race.

LEAD DRAMA ACTRESS	Beachum	Cormier	Dixon	Dortch	Licuria	Noble
Kathy Bates, ‘Harry’s Law’	5	6	4	6		3
Connie Britton, ‘Friday Night Lights’		4	5		6	5
Mireille Enos, ‘The Killing’	6				4
Mariska Hargitay, ‘Law & Order: SVU’	4			5
January Jones, ‘Mad Men’		5
Julianna Margulies, ‘The Good Wife’	1	1	1	1	2	1
Elisabeth Moss, ‘Mad Men’	3	2	2	2	1	4
Katey Sagal, ‘Sons of Anarchy’			3	4	5	6
Kyra Sedgwick, ‘The Closer’	2	3	6	3	3	2

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Emmy inside track: The race for best TV drama series

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Emmy inside track: The race for best comedy actress

--Tom O'Neil

Photos: Julianna Margulies in "The Good Wife" (CBS), Kyra Sedgwick with her Emmy (NBC), Elisabeth Moss in "Mad Men" (AMC)

Emmy inside track: The race for TV drama series

Our message board moderators agree that three TV shows are seriously in the Emmy running for outstanding drama series: "Mad Men," "Boardwalk Empire" and "The Good Wife."

Matthew Cormier and Marcus Dixon back "Boardwalk Empire," which won best drama series at the Golden Globes and best ensemble drama series at the SAG Awards earlier this year. Chris Beachum, Darrin Dortch, Rob Licuria and Matt Noble pick "Mad Men" to win for a fourth year in a row.

Curiously, all six moderators rank "Boardwalk Empire" and "Mad Men" in their top two positions — and they all rank "The Good Wife" in third place.

"The Good Wife" has several strong pluses. For starters, it's a hit legal-eagle show in the tradition of past winners "The Practice" and "L.A. Law." It airs on a broadcast TV channel (CBS). Broadcast channels employ the vast majority of the 14,000 members of the TV academy, and they haven't won best drama series since 2006 ("24"). Futhermore, it's airing new episodes right now, so it's fresh in the minds of Emmy voters. "Mad Men" and "Boardwalk Empire" are old news, having aired in late 2010.

Nominations will be unveiled July 14, winners Sept. 18.

— Tom O'Neil

DRAMA SERIES	Beachum	Cormier	Dixon	Dortch	Licuria	Noble
‘Big Love’						6
‘Boardwalk Empire’	2	1	1	2	2	2
‘Dexter’	4	5	4	4	4	4
‘Friday Night Lights’			6	5		5
‘Game of Thrones’	6		5
‘The Good Wife’	3	3	3	3	3	3
‘In Treatment’		6
‘The Killing’	5	4			5
‘Mad Men’	1	2	2	1	1	1
‘Sons of Anarchy’				6
‘The Walking Dead’					6

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Photos: "Boardwalk Empire" (HBO), "Mad Men" (AMC), "The Good Wife" (CBS)

Emmy cliffhanger: What'll win best TV drama series? [Updated]

This post has been corrected. See the note at the bottom for details.

The Emmy battle over best TV drama series is a real drama this year. "Mad Men" has won three years in a row and can prevail again, but that kind of winning streak is rare. "The West Wing" and "Hill Street Blues" pulled off four consecutive victories, but "L.A. Law" was stopped after four wins and great series like "The Sopranos," "Cagney & Lacey" and "The Practice" won only twice. Heck, "ER," "Law & Order," "Lost," "NYPD Blue" and "24" had to settle for a solo triumph each.

"Boardwalk Empire" is "Mad Men's" most serious rival. A few months ago, it won the Golden Globe for best TV drama series and the equivalent prize at the Screen Actors Guild: best TV ensemble.

Both series are vulnerable because of timing, however: They're old news. "Mad Men's" last episode was telecast in October. "Boardwalk Empire" went off the air in December. What could beat them? "The Good Wife" can pull off an upset because it's a well-crafted legal thriller in the tradition of past champs like "The Practice" and "L.A. Law" –- and it's on CBS. Most members of the TV academy work for programs airing on the broadcast channels, and there's strong pressure on Emmy voters to let their kin win again. The last time a broadcast series won the category was 2006 ("24").

Remember, the Emmys have expanded this category to six nominees. That means three more slots are open. "Dexter" and "True Blood" got in last year and may return. There's a good chance that "Friday Night Lights" will finally break through. Last year its lead stars, Kyle Chandler and Connie Britton, finally scored nominations. TV critics continue to cheer it vigorously while new episodes are airing on NBC right now –- after their first spin on DirecTV. If nominated, it actually has a shot to win.

* = nominated last year

BEST TV DRAMA SERIES
(Favorites)
"Boardwalk Empire"
"The Borgias"
"Dexter" *
"Friday Night Lights"
"The Good Wife" *
"In Treatment"
"Justified"
"The Killing"
"Mad Men" *
"Shameless"
"Sons of Anarchy"
"True Blood" *
"The Walking Dead"

(Possible)
"Big Love"
"Burn Notice"
"The Closer"
"Game of Thrones"
"Harry's Law"
"House M.D."
"Luther"
"Parenthood"
"Treme"

Peabody Award surprises: 'Men of a Certain Age,' 'Justified'

How nice that the latest list of Peabody Award winners isn't so snooty. Often, these laurels bestowed by the University of Georgia's journalism school can get a bit esoteric while struggling to prove that they don't pander to TV Nielsens. In the past, they've courageously hailed canceled shows ("Boomtown," 2002) and struggling ones ("Friday Night Lights," 2006).

However, the newest Peabody champs include such quality hit TV programs as "The Good Wife" and "Justified," only one of which got adequate Emmy love last year. "The Good Wife" was nominated for best TV drama series and its star Julianna Margulies was up for lead actress, but "Justified" and star Timothy Olyphant were unjustifiably snubbed.

So was "Men of a Certain Age," which received a major prestige boost Thursday by making the Peabody list. It is TNT's first Peabody victory since 2002 when its TV movie "Door to Door" won a prize. "Men of a Certain Age" receives ace reviews from TV critics, but it's low-rated and needs some spotlight. A Peabody judge hails it thus: "A series about three longtime pals, 'regular' guys, navigating middle age, it’s comical, poignant and harrowing, sometimes all at once."

Last year the Peabodys also picked popular TV faves such as "Glee" and "Modern Family," but made a few heroic choices such as the nod for "In Treatment," which was HBO canceled this week, and the pay channel's "The No. 1 Ladies' Detective Agency," which felt the ax fall soon after its debut.

-- Tom O'Neil

Photo: TNT

Emmy nominations often repeat, but not winners

Once a performer is nominated at the Emmys, they usually can count on bids for several years. However, winners rarely return to the podium the following year. Of last year's victors in the eight regular series races, only best drama actor Bryan Cranston ("Breaking Bad") had previously taken home the prize for the same role.

Among the other seven winners, only best comedy actress Edie Falco ("Nurse Jackie") was a prior Emmy champ with three victories as best drama actress for "The Sopranos" (1999, 2001 and 2003).

The remaining half a dozen were all new to the Emmy spotlight. Rounding out the drama categories were lead actress Kyra Sedgwick ("The Closer"), supporting actor Aaron Paul ("Breaking Bad") and supporting actress Archie Panjabi ("The Good Wife"). Sedgwick finally prevailed on her fifth nomination for the TNT procedural, while Paul secured victory on his second bid for "Bad." And Panjabi shocked pundits by winning with her first career nomination for the freshman hit.

Besides Falco, the other winners in the comedy field were lead actor Jim Parsons ("The Big Bang Theory"), supporting actor Eric Stonestreet ("Modern Family") and supporting actress Jane Lynch ("Glee"). Parsons won with his second consecutive nom while both Stonestreet and Lynch prevailed for the first year of their shows.

Six of last year's winners are eligible again this year. The extended hiatus for "Breaking Bad" has robbed Cranston of the chance to make it four in a row and has taken Paul out of the running. And while some of the others could repeat, last year's ceremony reminded us that Emmy loves awarding new blood.

-- Tom O'Neil

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Photo: Edie Falco defied the Emmy odds while competing for "The Soproanos," winning three times. She won last year for "Nurse Jackie." Can she repeat? Her toughest competition will be her Showtime costars Laura Linney ("The Big C") and Toni Collette ("United States of Tara"). Credit: Jason Merritt / Getty Images

Emmy poll: Will 'Walking Dead,' 'Dexter' or 'Mad Men' win best TV drama series?

When we asked our forum moderators to predict the Emmy race for best drama series, they cited 11 potential nominees (see list below) and two likely winners ("Mad Men," "Boardwalk Empire"). Now let's use that list of contenders and ask you -- the real experts -- which program will win.

"Mad Men" has reigned undefeated over this Emmy category for three years in a row. It continues to reap strong ratings from viewers and ace reviews from TV critics, but Emmy voters may be bored and want a change. That's what happened in the past when "The Defenders" (1962-1964) and "L.A. Law" (1989-1991) lost after three consecutive victories. However, two shows managed to continue their romps for a fourth year: "Hill Street Blues" (1981-1984) and "The West Wing" (2000-2003).

Our forum moderators believe "Mad Men's" most serious rival is "Boardwalk Empire," probably because Emmy voters are nuts for HBO programs and the pay channel's new series about Atlantic City bootleggers recently won best drama series at the Golden Globes. HBO also has "Big Love" (nominated once) and "Treme" and "In Treatment" (never nominated), but they're not considered to be serious threats now. Debuting April 17: "Game of Thrones." Yeah, yeah, fantasy fare usually doesn't do well at Hollywood peer-group industry awards, but that's what they said about "Lord of the Rings" before its historic Oscar sweep. Last year, HBO stunned Emmy watchers by nabbing a nom for "True Blood," which could rise again.

Don't give up on "Dexter" or "The Good Wife," which have lost in the past ("Dexter" three times; "Good Wife" once). When "Law & Order" won in 1997, the victory followed five previous defeats. Both shows will probably be nominated again.

If TV critics' darling "Friday Night Lights" finally gets its first nomination, it could garner widespread support from the industry. "Sons of Anarchy" is overdue -- and beloved -- too.

Among new shows, AMC's "The Walking Dead" is red-hot, and the network will soon debut "The Killing." Also to be unveiled during the tail end of the Emmy eligibility period will be Showtime's "The Borgias." The network's previous historical pageant, "The Tudors," failed to rule at the Emmys, but this time God is on its side.

Showtime will enter its new show, "Shameless," as a drama series, which is a bit of a surprise considering that it has recently been classifying its many dramadies as comedies because competition is less fierce in those slots.

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It's Emmy war! Can "Boardwalk Empire" conquer "Mad Men"?

-- Tom O'Neil

Photo credit: Academy of Television Arts and Sciences

It's Emmy war! Can 'Boardwalk Empire' conquer 'Mad Men'?

Looks like "Mad Men" finally has serious competition in the Emmy battle over best TV drama series. While the hit AMC series has gone undefeated for three consecutive years, our forums' moderators are divided over whether it can prevail again. Four of our six pundits believe it will. Two foresee it losing to recent Golden Globes champ "Boardwalk Empire."

The following gurus offer their predictions ranked by likelihood of winning: Chris Beachum, Matthew Cormier, Marcus Dixon, Darrin Dortch, Rob Licuria, Matt Noble. All of them forecast nominations for "Boardwalk Empire," "Dexter," "The Good Wife" and "Mad Men." That's no surprise, considering one of those shows just won the Globe and the other three were nominated last year. However, our pundits are split over the following choices for the other two slots in the category: "The Borgias," "Friday Night Lights," "In Treatment," "The Killing," "Sons of Anarchy," "True Blood" and "The Walking Dead."

Last year, those two slots went to the now-canceled "Lost" and "Breaking Bad," which isn't eligible this year, but will be back in competition at next year's Emmy derby.

Missing from their predictions are past nominees "House, M.D." and "Big Love." Since "Treme" was snubbed last year, none of them is betting on it now. Nor are they backing "Harry's Law" from past Emmy magnet David E. Kelley or Showtime's new drama series about the ultimate dysfuntional family, "Shameless."

-- Tom O'Neil

	Beachum	Cormier	Dixon	Dortch	Licuria	Noble
“Boardwalk Empire”	2	1	1	2	2	2
“The Borgias”	6
“Dexter”	4	4	4	4	4	4
“Friday Night Lights”			6			6
“The Good Wife”	3	3	3	3	3	3
“In Treatment”		5		5	5	5
“The Killing”	5
“Mad Men”	1	2	2	1	1	1
“Sons of Anarchy”				6
“True Blood”		6
“The Walking Dead”			5		6

Photos: "Boardwalk Empire" (HBO), "Mad Men" (AMC)