Emmy inside track: The race for best drama actress

Five of our forum moderators believe Julianna Margulies ("The Good Wife") will win the Emmy for best TV drama actress: Chris Beachum, Matthew Cormier, Marcus Dixon, Darrin Dortch and Matt Noble. But beware: that's what most pundits thought last year when Kyra Sedgwick ("The Closer") finally won after four previous defeats. Our other moderator, Rob Licuria, disagrees, picking Elisabeth Moss ("Mad Men") to prevail this year. That's a curious choice considering Moss must compete directly against costar January Jones. I think all of our pundits are underestimating Katey Sagal ("Sons of Anarchy"). If she scores the first Emmy nomination of her career, the recent Golden Globe champ could bag the TV academy prize next. Below, our pundits' rankings in this race.

LEAD DRAMA ACTRESS	Beachum	Cormier	Dixon	Dortch	Licuria	Noble
Kathy Bates, ‘Harry’s Law’	5	6	4	6		3
Connie Britton, ‘Friday Night Lights’		4	5		6	5
Mireille Enos, ‘The Killing’	6				4
Mariska Hargitay, ‘Law & Order: SVU’	4			5
January Jones, ‘Mad Men’		5
Julianna Margulies, ‘The Good Wife’	1	1	1	1	2	1
Elisabeth Moss, ‘Mad Men’	3	2	2	2	1	4
Katey Sagal, ‘Sons of Anarchy’			3	4	5	6
Kyra Sedgwick, ‘The Closer’	2	3	6	3	3	2

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Emmy inside track: The race for best TV drama series

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Emmy inside track: The race for best comedy actor

Emmy inside track: The race for best comedy actress

--Tom O'Neil

Photos: Julianna Margulies in "The Good Wife" (CBS), Kyra Sedgwick with her Emmy (NBC), Elisabeth Moss in "Mad Men" (AMC)

Emmy inside track: The race for TV drama series

Our message board moderators agree that three TV shows are seriously in the Emmy running for outstanding drama series: "Mad Men," "Boardwalk Empire" and "The Good Wife."

Matthew Cormier and Marcus Dixon back "Boardwalk Empire," which won best drama series at the Golden Globes and best ensemble drama series at the SAG Awards earlier this year. Chris Beachum, Darrin Dortch, Rob Licuria and Matt Noble pick "Mad Men" to win for a fourth year in a row.

Curiously, all six moderators rank "Boardwalk Empire" and "Mad Men" in their top two positions — and they all rank "The Good Wife" in third place.

"The Good Wife" has several strong pluses. For starters, it's a hit legal-eagle show in the tradition of past winners "The Practice" and "L.A. Law." It airs on a broadcast TV channel (CBS). Broadcast channels employ the vast majority of the 14,000 members of the TV academy, and they haven't won best drama series since 2006 ("24"). Futhermore, it's airing new episodes right now, so it's fresh in the minds of Emmy voters. "Mad Men" and "Boardwalk Empire" are old news, having aired in late 2010.

Nominations will be unveiled July 14, winners Sept. 18.

— Tom O'Neil

DRAMA SERIES	Beachum	Cormier	Dixon	Dortch	Licuria	Noble
‘Big Love’						6
‘Boardwalk Empire’	2	1	1	2	2	2
‘Dexter’	4	5	4	4	4	4
‘Friday Night Lights’			6	5		5
‘Game of Thrones’	6		5
‘The Good Wife’	3	3	3	3	3	3
‘In Treatment’		6
‘The Killing’	5	4			5
‘Mad Men’	1	2	2	1	1	1
‘Sons of Anarchy’				6
‘The Walking Dead’					6

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Photos: "Boardwalk Empire" (HBO), "Mad Men" (AMC), "The Good Wife" (CBS)

Emmy slugfest over best drama actor: Jon Hamm vs. Steve Buscemi

After three past losses for his work on "Mad Men," Jon Hamm will finally win best TV drama actor at the Emmys, according to three of the six pundits polled by Awards Tracker. The gurus are our forums' moderators, who monitor the Emmy voting process closely and believe that Hamm can finally prevail because of the emotional impact and range he displays in the Season 4 episode that he will probably submit to Emmy judges: "The Suitcase."

Our other three pundits are betting on Steve Buscemi in "Boardwalk Empire," which will certainly be a major Emmy contender. The hot new HBO series recently won best drama series at the Golden Globes, halting beat "Mad Men's" three-year winning streak, and may soon do the same at the Emmys.

For the last three years, the Emmy contest for best TV drama actor was dominated by Bryan Cranston, but he's not eligible now because "Breaking Bad" had no new episodes airing during the Emmy eligibility period that ends May 31. Five-time loser Hugh Laurie ("House M.D.") has never won. Other nominees last year included Hamm, Michael C. Hall ("Dexter"), Kyle Chandler ("Friday Night Lights") and Matthew Fox ("Lost"). All may return except Fox.

Other top contenders: Simon Baker ("The Mentalist"), Gabriel Byrne ("In Treatment"), Idris Elba ("Luther"), Charlie Hunnam ("Sons of Anarchy"), Jeremy Irons ("The Borgias"), Andrew Lincoln ("The Walking Dead"), William H. Macy ("Shameless"), Timothy Olyphant ("Justified"), Bill Paxton ("Big Love") and Tom Selleck ("Blue Bloods").

Our participating Emmy pundits: Chris Beachum, Matthew Cormier, Marcus Dixon, Darrin Dortch, Rob Licuria and Matt Noble. Below, they rank their top six predictions for best TV drama actor according to likelihood of winning (1 is most likely). Also, see their rankings for best drama series and comedy series.

-- Tom O'Neil

DRAMA ACTOR	Beachum	Cormier	Dixon	Dortch	Licuria	Noble
Steve Buscemi, "Boardwalk Empire"	2	1	1	2	1	2
Gabriel Byrne, "In Treatment"		6		3	4	6
Kyle Chandler, "Friday Night Lights"			3			5
Michael C. Hall, "Dexter"	4	2	6	5	3	3
Jon Hamm, "Mad Men"	1	3	2	1	2	1
Jeremy Irons, "The Borgias"	3				5
Hugh Laurie, "House M.D."	5	5	5	6	6	4
William H. Macy, "Shameless"	6	4	4	4

Photos, from left: Jon Hamm in "Mad Men"; Steve Buscemi in "Boardwalk Empire. Credits: AMC, HBO

Emmy poll: Will 'Walking Dead,' 'Dexter' or 'Mad Men' win best TV drama series?

When we asked our forum moderators to predict the Emmy race for best drama series, they cited 11 potential nominees (see list below) and two likely winners ("Mad Men," "Boardwalk Empire"). Now let's use that list of contenders and ask you -- the real experts -- which program will win.

"Mad Men" has reigned undefeated over this Emmy category for three years in a row. It continues to reap strong ratings from viewers and ace reviews from TV critics, but Emmy voters may be bored and want a change. That's what happened in the past when "The Defenders" (1962-1964) and "L.A. Law" (1989-1991) lost after three consecutive victories. However, two shows managed to continue their romps for a fourth year: "Hill Street Blues" (1981-1984) and "The West Wing" (2000-2003).

Our forum moderators believe "Mad Men's" most serious rival is "Boardwalk Empire," probably because Emmy voters are nuts for HBO programs and the pay channel's new series about Atlantic City bootleggers recently won best drama series at the Golden Globes. HBO also has "Big Love" (nominated once) and "Treme" and "In Treatment" (never nominated), but they're not considered to be serious threats now. Debuting April 17: "Game of Thrones." Yeah, yeah, fantasy fare usually doesn't do well at Hollywood peer-group industry awards, but that's what they said about "Lord of the Rings" before its historic Oscar sweep. Last year, HBO stunned Emmy watchers by nabbing a nom for "True Blood," which could rise again.

Don't give up on "Dexter" or "The Good Wife," which have lost in the past ("Dexter" three times; "Good Wife" once). When "Law & Order" won in 1997, the victory followed five previous defeats. Both shows will probably be nominated again.

If TV critics' darling "Friday Night Lights" finally gets its first nomination, it could garner widespread support from the industry. "Sons of Anarchy" is overdue -- and beloved -- too.

Among new shows, AMC's "The Walking Dead" is red-hot, and the network will soon debut "The Killing." Also to be unveiled during the tail end of the Emmy eligibility period will be Showtime's "The Borgias." The network's previous historical pageant, "The Tudors," failed to rule at the Emmys, but this time God is on its side.

Showtime will enter its new show, "Shameless," as a drama series, which is a bit of a surprise considering that it has recently been classifying its many dramadies as comedies because competition is less fierce in those slots.

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It's Emmy war! Can "Boardwalk Empire" conquer "Mad Men"?

-- Tom O'Neil

Photo credit: Academy of Television Arts and Sciences

It's Emmy war! Can 'Boardwalk Empire' conquer 'Mad Men'?

Looks like "Mad Men" finally has serious competition in the Emmy battle over best TV drama series. While the hit AMC series has gone undefeated for three consecutive years, our forums' moderators are divided over whether it can prevail again. Four of our six pundits believe it will. Two foresee it losing to recent Golden Globes champ "Boardwalk Empire."

The following gurus offer their predictions ranked by likelihood of winning: Chris Beachum, Matthew Cormier, Marcus Dixon, Darrin Dortch, Rob Licuria, Matt Noble. All of them forecast nominations for "Boardwalk Empire," "Dexter," "The Good Wife" and "Mad Men." That's no surprise, considering one of those shows just won the Globe and the other three were nominated last year. However, our pundits are split over the following choices for the other two slots in the category: "The Borgias," "Friday Night Lights," "In Treatment," "The Killing," "Sons of Anarchy," "True Blood" and "The Walking Dead."

Last year, those two slots went to the now-canceled "Lost" and "Breaking Bad," which isn't eligible this year, but will be back in competition at next year's Emmy derby.

Missing from their predictions are past nominees "House, M.D." and "Big Love." Since "Treme" was snubbed last year, none of them is betting on it now. Nor are they backing "Harry's Law" from past Emmy magnet David E. Kelley or Showtime's new drama series about the ultimate dysfuntional family, "Shameless."

-- Tom O'Neil

	Beachum	Cormier	Dixon	Dortch	Licuria	Noble
“Boardwalk Empire”	2	1	1	2	2	2
“The Borgias”	6
“Dexter”	4	4	4	4	4	4
“Friday Night Lights”			6			6
“The Good Wife”	3	3	3	3	3	3
“In Treatment”		5		5	5	5
“The Killing”	5
“Mad Men”	1	2	2	1	1	1
“Sons of Anarchy”				6
“True Blood”		6
“The Walking Dead”			5		6

Photos: "Boardwalk Empire" (HBO), "Mad Men" (AMC)