If I Ran the Oscars: Comedian Jon Manfrellotti takes a shot

In this interview series, we ask a host of famous free thinkers to recast the Oscars in their own image. Please direct your attention to our next presenter: actor-comedian Jon Manfrellotti, who steals scenes weekly as Manfro the bookie on TNT’s “Men of a Certain Age”:

 Now that the nominations have been released, which films and performers do you think the academy voters will pick to win the Oscars this year?

For best picture, I think it’s going to be “The Social Network.” Everybody and his brother is on a computer, so now they can go online and tell each other, “I TOLD you it was going to be ‘The Social Network’!”

They’re probably going to give best actress to Natalie Portman. She made a weird face into the camera, and had a lesbian scene, so she’ll get it. On the men’s side, it’ll be Christian Bale for supporting actor, because he lost weight, and it’ll probably be Colin Firth for “The King’s Speech.” You gotta feel bad for a king who lisps.

So if you were in charge of the academy, who would go home with Oscars this year?

Me personally, I’d give it to Jeff Bridges, because I love him. I think he’s great. I know he won last year, and he’s playing the same character but this time with an eye patch. But he still pulled it off. And Hailee Steinfeld blew me away. She was phenomenal. But man, where do you go from there? Better go right into rehab and get it over with.

Which films and performers from the past do you feel deserved the Oscar but didn’t receive one?

Glenn Close should have won for “Dangerous Liaisons.” She lost to Cher in “Moonstruck.” Come on, was Sonny stuffing the ballot? And “Raging Bull” lost to “Ordinary People.” It should have been called “Ordinary Movie.” You talk about a boring movie -– instead of anesthesia, they should show “Ordinary People” before surgery.

My 100% perfect Oscar nomination predictions

Oscar nominations will be unveiled next Tuesday. Below: my predictions in the top six Academy Awards races.

BEST PICTURE
1. "The Social Network"
2. "The King's Speech"
3. "The Fighter"
4. "True Grit"
5. "Black Swan"
6. "Toy Story 3"
7. "Inception"
8. "The Town"
9. "127 Hours"
10. "The Kids Are All Right"

The top seven films on this list are locks for nominations. Mystery looms over what will nab those bottom three rungs where four films jockey for inclusion. "Winter's Bone" is the one not shown here, but could break in.


BEST DIRECTOR
1. David Fincher, “The Social Network”
2. Christopher Nolan, “Inception”
3. Darren Aronofsky, “Black Swan”
4. Tom Hooper, “The King’s Speech”
5. David O. Russell, “The Fighter”

Fincher will win, of course. The only suspense surrounds who'll be nominated. The above five are the DGA nominees. One of them (but not Fincher) might be bumped for Joel and Ethan Coen ("True Grit") or Danny Boyle ("127 Hours"). There's a remote chance Lisa Cholodenko ("The Kids Are All Right") could squeak in now that a woman finally won here for the first time last year.


BEST ACTOR
1. Colin Firth, "The King's Speech"
2. James Franco, "127 Hours"
3. Jesse Eisenberg, "The Social Network"
4. Robert Duvall, "Get Low"
5. Jeff Bridges, "True Grit"

Colin Firth will win, James Franco and Jesse Eisenberg are guaranteed nominations. Duvall and Bridges are vulnerable and could be bumped by Javier Bardem ("Biutiful"), Mark Wahlberg ("The Fighter") or Ryan Gosling ("Blue Valentine").
 

BEST ACTRESS
1. Natalie Portman, "Black Swan"
2. Annette Bening, "The Kids Are All Right"
3. Nicole Kidman, "Rabbit Hole"
4. Jennifer Lawrence, "Winter's Bone"
5. Hilary Swank, "Conviction"

Some pundits doubt that Swank will make the list, but she scored a SAG nomination and that's always a great omen. Otherwise, expect Julianne Moore ("The Kids Are All Right") or Michelle Williams ("Blue Valentine") to sneak in. Outside shot: Lesley Manville ("Another Year"), who won National Board of Review. Some pundits believe Hailee Steinfeld ("True Grit") will be nommed in lead even though she campaigned in supporting. That happened just two years ago with Kate Winslet ("The Reader"), but I don't see that scenario repeating now.
 

Golden Globe predictions: 'King's Speech' or 'Social Network' to reign?

Predicting the Golden Globes is hard because the awards are bestowed by such a quirky group of foreign journalists with unusual tastes. But let's try it anyway. First the film categories.

-- Tom O'Neil

X = predicted winner

PICTURE (DRAMA)
"Black Swan"
"The Fighter"
"Inception"
"The King's Speech"
X - "The Social Network"

PREDICTION: This is a close contest between "King's Speech" and "Social Network." Members of the Hollywood Foreign Press Assn. often like foreign-set films, especially when they involve the British aristocracy, as evidenced by past victories here by "Atonement," "The English Patient" and "Sense and Sensibility." But sometimes the foreigners strive to do the opposite – to prove how in tune they  are with hip Yankee fare such as "Avatar" last year – and "Social Network" this year? I think so, yes.


PICTURE (COMEDY/MUSICAL)
"Alice in Wonderland"
"Burlesque"
X - "The Kids Are All Right"
"Red"
"The Tourist"

PREDICTION: "Kids" is the only movie on this list that has any hope of an Oscar nomination for best picture, so it'll probably prevail. But is it really a comedy?


DIRECTOR
Darren Aronofsky, "Black Swan"
X - David Fincher, "Social Network"
Tom Hooper, "The King's Speech"
Christopher Nolan, "Inception"
David O. Russell, "The Fighter"

PREDICTION: Unlike Oscar voters, Globe voters often spread the wealth and reward helmers of films that don't win best picture. But I don't think that's going to happen this year.


ACTOR (DRAMA)
Jesse Eisenberg, "The Social Network"
X - Colin Firth, "The King's Speech"
James Franco, "127 Hours"
Ryan Gosling, "Blue Valentine"
Mark Wahlberg, "The Fighter"

PREDICTION: Firth hasn't lost a single award yet this season – and he's not going to lose this one, or any other, en route to the Oscar crown.

 

'Get Low's' Robert Duvall and makeup artist Ken Diaz on beards gone wild

 

We wondered just what it took to turn Robert Duvall into a backwoods hermit with a wildly unkempt beard for his SAG Award-nominated role in "Get Low." So we went straight to the source -- well, the sources. Below, we hear first from makeup artist Ken Diaz, who created the massive beard, then we get the other side of the story. The veteran actor tells Awards Tracker about what it was like to work with the artist and about the awe the beard initially inspired. After hearing from them both, one thing quickly becomes clear: Each has a great admiration for the craftsmanship of the other.

Ken Diaz:

"In more than 30 years as a makeup artist for film and television, it is not very often that I get a call to work with an icon of American cinema like Robert Duvall. This is the man who played Tom Hagen in two of my favorite movies [‘The Godfather’ and 'The Godfather, Part II'] and Lt. Col. Bill Kilgore in ‘Apocalypse Now.’ He was the Great Santini. The same man who blew me away as Sonny in ‘The Apostle.’

"I was called in to transform Mr. Duvall into Felix Bush, circa 1930s rural Tennessee, a crotchety old hermit in self-exile for the last 40 years. Many stories are told about that ‘crazy old man’ who lives in that cabin in the woods, outside of town. Now, in declining health, Bush is a man on the road to repentance.

"In the film, Bush goes though a transformation, shaving down his wild-looking hair and beard into a more nicely groomed look. After reading the script, having conversations with the director, Aaron Schneider, and with Mr. Duvall, I took photos of Duvall and Photoshopped different before-and-after hair-and-beard looks.

"For Mr. Duvall’s old-hermit look, I designed a wild-looking beard and mustache. I worked very closely with Natascha Ladek of Favian Wigs to create a beard that had a good blend of colors, giving the beard depth, paying very close attention to proper hair-growth direction, density and mobility.

"I carefully applied the completed wild-looking hermit beard and mustache on Mr. Duvall, taking great care to hide his own mustache and goatee, which we needed to keep for his second look. I then applied a special hair gel to groom and give the hair a natural shine and texture.

"After I completed the makeup, hair stylist Colleen Callaghan would expertly apply Mr. Duvall’s long hermit hairpiece, to complete the look.

"For Mr. Duvall’s second look, I kept his own mustache and goatee neatly trimmed. I adjusted his makeup to show the various stages of Bush’s health throughout the film.

"I completed the look by gluing a pair of flesh-colored acrylic "ear braces" behind Mr. Duvall’s ears to give him a more interesting look.

"I feel both privileged and honored to have been given the opportunity to work so closely with Mr. Duvall, helping develop the look of his character and then watching him masterfully transform into another memorable screen character."

Keep reading for a Q&A with Duvall on beards gone wild.

'Black Swan,' 'The King's Speech' lead BAFTA's Longlist nominees [Updated]

 

 
"Black Swan" and "The King's Speech" dominated the British Academy of Film and Television Arts' Longlist for the Orange British Academy Film Awards on Friday morning with 15 mentions each.

The Longlist is a result of the first round of voting by BAFTA members. The second round of voting, which begins Friday and concludes Thursday, will narrow the choices down to five nominations in each category. The final nominations will be announced Jan. 18 and the awards will be handed out Feb. 13.

Making the best film Longlist are "127 Hours," "Another Year," "Black Swan," "The Fighter," "The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo," "Inception," "The Kids Are All Right," "Made in Dagenham," "Shutter Island," "The Social Network," "The Town," "Toy Story 3," "True Grit" and "Winter's Bone."

Directors on the list are Danny Boyle for "127 Hours," Tim Burton for "Alice in Wonderland," Mike Leigh for "Another Year," Darren Aronofsky for "Black Swan," David O. Russell for "The Fighter," Niels Arden Oplev for "The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo," Christopher Nolan for "Inception," Lisa Cholodenko for "The Kids Are All Right," Tom Hooper for "The King's Speech," Nigel Cole for "Made in Dagenham," Martin Scorsese for "Shutter Island," David Fincher for "The Social Network," Ben Affleck for "The Town" and Lee Unkrich for "Toy Story 3."

Leading actor contenders on the Longlist  are Aaron Eckhart for "Rabbit Hole," Ben Affleck for "The Town," Colin Firth for "The King's Speech," James Franco for "127 Hours," Javier Bardem for "Biutiful," Jeff Bridges for "True Grit," Jesse Eisenberg for "The Social Network," Jim Broadbent for "Another Year," Johnny Depp for "Alice in Wonderland," Leonardo DiCaprio for "Inception" and "Shutter Island," Mark Wahlberg for "The Fighter," Paul Giamatti for "Barney's Version," Robert Duvall for "Get Low" and Ryan Gosling for "Blue Valentine." [For the Record: An earlier version of this report spelled Mark Wahlberg's name incorrectly.]

Making the list in the lead actress category are Andrea Riseborough for "Brighton Rock," Annette Bening for "The Kids Are All Right," Carey Mulligan for "Never Let Me Go," Gemma Arterton for "The Disappearance of Alice Creed" and "Tamara Drewe," Hailee Steinfeld for "True Grit," Jennifer Lawrence for "Winter's Bone," Julianne Moore for "The Kids Are All Right," Michelle Williams for "Blue Valentine," Natalie Portman for "Black Swan," Nicole Kidman for "Rabbit Hole," Noomi Rapace for "The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo," Rosamund Pike for "Barney's Version," Sally Hawkins for "Made in Dagenham" and Tilda Swinton for "I Am Love."

For more information on the BAFTA  Longlist, go to Bafta.org

 -- Susan King

Photo: Geoffrey Rush in "The King's Speech." Photo: Laurie Sparham / Weinstein Co.

SAG nominations: Robert Duvall on 'Get Low'

 
An appreciative Robert Duvall had this to say, in a statement released Thursday morning, about his Screen Actors Guild Award nomination, for his role as a regretful hermit in "Get Low":

�Thank you to the Screen Actors Guild for acknowledging my performance in 'Get Low.'  It�s a film I�m very proud to be a part of and happy if this nomination helps to give the film the attention I would like it to receive.�

Photo: Robert Duvall. Credit: Robert Gauthier / Los Angeles Times