Emmys: Tom O'Neil's daredevil predictions

Of all Hollywood showbiz awards, the Emmy is most confounding to predict because winners are chosen by small juries viewing sample episodes submitted by nominees as examples of their best work. But I've investigated all entries and I enjoy jumping off cliffs ... so here goes.

DRAMA SERIES
Prediction: "Mad Men"
Runner-up: "Boardwalk Empire"

DRAMA ACTOR
Prediction: Jon Hamm, "Mad Men"
Runner-up: Steve Buscemi, "Boardwalk Empire"

DRAMA ACTRESS
Prediction: Julianna Margulies, "The Good Wife"
Runner-up: Elisabeth Moss, "Mad Men"

DRAMA SUPPORTING ACTOR
Prediction: John Slattery, "Mad Men"
Runner-up: Josh Charles, "The Good Wife"

DRAMA SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Prediction: Margo Martindale, "Justified"
Runner-up: Christina Hendricks, "Mad Men"

COMEDY SERIES
Prediction: "Modern Family"
Runner-up: "Parks and Recreation"

COMEDY ACTOR
Prediction: Steve Carell, "The Office"
Runner-up: Jim Parsons, "The Big Bang Theory"

COMEDY ACTRESS
Prediction: Laura Linney, "The Big C"
Runner-up: Amy Poehler, "Parks and Recreation"

COMEDY SUPPORTING ACTOR
Prediction: Ty Burrell, "Modern Family"
Runner-Up: Chris Colfer, "Glee"

COMEDY SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Prediction: Jane Lynch, "Glee"
Runner-up: Betty White, "Hot in Cleveland"

TV MOVIE / MINISERIES
Prediction: "Downton Abbey"
Runner-up: "The Kennedys"

TV MOVIE / MINISERIES ACTOR
Prediction: Edgar Ramirez, "Carlos"
Runner-up: Laurence Fishburne, "Thurgood"

TV MOVIE / MINISERIES ACTRESS
Prediction: Kate Winslet, "Mildred Pierce"
Runner-up: Jean Marsh, "Upstairs, "Downstairs"

TV MOVIE / MINISERIES SUPPORTING ACTOR
Prediction: Tom Wilkinson, "The Kennedys"
Runner-up: Guy Pearce, "Mildred Pierce"

TV MOVIE / MINISERIES SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Prediction: Evan Rachel Wood, "Mildred Pierce"
Runner-up: Maggie Smith, "Downton Abbey"

REALITY-COMPETITION PROGRAM
Prediction: "Project Runway"
Runner-up: "Top Chef"

VARIETY SERIES
Prediction: "The Daily Show"
Runner-up: "Late Night With Jimmy Fallon"

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-- Tom O'Neil

Photo: Academy of Television Arts & Sciences

Laura Linney is Emmy front-runner for best comedy actress

There are several reasons why most pundits predict Laura Linney ("The Big C") will win the Emmy for best comedy actress. For starters, the three-time past champ has never lost. Her first victory was for best guest comedy actress in "Frasier" (2004); her other two were in the contest for best actress in a movie/miniseries ( "Wild Iris" in 2002, "John Adams" in 2008). This year she competes for best comedy actress for her new TV series on Showtime, which has owned the category for the last two years with victories by Toni Collette for "United States of Tara" (2009) and Edie Falco ("Nurse Jackie") in 2010.

Linney gave Emmy judges the pilot episode, a potent mix of defiant comedy and high drama in which she battles her neighbor, students, husband and son while hiding the secret that she's got cancer. It's loaded with so much emotional impact, range and sympathy that she'll be hard to beat.

However, four of the other five nominees submitted episodes that give them a strong fighting chance. "Saturday Night Live" alums Amy Poehler ("Parks and Recreation") and Tina Fey ("30 Rock") both submitted strong material.

Poehler entered "Flu Season," in which her character -- small-town civil servant Leslie Knope -- comes down with the flu but insists on making an important presentation to the chamber of commerce anyway. The hilarity of her performance builds as, first, she battles flu symptoms, then the mind-altering effects of her medication. Poehler doesn't display Linney's gravitas, but she's a lot funnier. Her only problem may be that "Flu Season" is an ensemble-driven episode, which means she has far less screen time than Linney.

Fey might have the same problem in her "30 Rock" episode, "Double Edged Sword," in which she battles her boyfriend, airline pilot Carol (guest-acting nominee Matt Damon), during a lengthy flight delay. She's terrific while battling on the behalf of her fellow passengers, but she shares the episode with two major subplots -– one involving Tracy Jordan (Tracy Morgan) winning an Oscar, and the other following Jack Donaghy (Alec Baldwin) and his wife in Canada –- so she might also be at a disadvantage.

Ironically, screen time is not a problem for Martha Plimpton, who many thought would have been better off competing in the supporting category for "Raising Hope." But entering the lead race proved to be a shrewd move. She earned a nomination and submitted "Say Cheese," one of her best episodes of the season, in which she is shown in flashbacks trying to corral her family for the perfect family portrait photo. She's arguably more of a lead actress in this episode than Poehler and Fey are in theirs. Plimpton was a surprise nominee, but if she wins, don't say I didn't warn you.

Melissa McCarthy is also a potential spoiler. She came out of nowhere to secure a nomination for CBS' "Mike & Molly," undoubtedly helped by her increased notoriety from this summer's blockbuster comedy "Bridesmaids." She stands a fair chance thanks to her episode, "First Date," in which she, like Poehler, reacts strongly to a heavy dose of cold medicine. She wouldn't be the first star to upset at the Emmys with the help of a hit movie; Katherine Heigl won best supporting drama actress for "Grey's Anatomy" in 2007, the same year she starred in Judd Apatow's "Knocked Up."

Emmy contenders: Will Laura Linney continue to go undefeated?

Laura Linney has yet to win an Oscar despite three nominations, but at the Emmys she has proved unbeatable. She is three-for-three, winning her first award in 2002 for lead actress in a TV movie or miniseries for Showtime's telefilm "Wild Iris," an upset in which she defeated Vanessa Redgrave for "The Gathering Storm," that year's winner for best TV movie, as well as Linney's own costar, Gena Rowlands. Her second win was in 2004 for guest-starring as Kelsey Grammer's final love interest on "Frasier." And in 2008, she won a third prize, once again in the movie/miniseries race, for her lead role as Abigail Adams in the HBO miniseries "John Adams."

Last year marked her first regular television role, playing a woman battling cancer on Showtime's "The Big C," which has earned her a fourth nomination. Will she continue her unbroken winning streak? She submitted the pilot episode, a whopper of a reel in which she responds to her cancer diagnosis by lashing out at her neighbors, students and family before finally revealing her diagnosis to a dog. It's an episode with tons of impact and range, but just one problem: It's not very funny.

But two previous Showtime leading ladies have won this category for more dramatic fare: Toni Collette took home the gold in 2009 for playing a mother with multiple personalities on the the now-defunct "United States of Tara," and Edie Falco won last year for playing a drug-addicted nurse on "Nurse Jackie." Falco is back in the race again this year, and she submitted a funnier episode this time around: "Rat Falls," in which she discovers that the titular rodent has gotten into her stash of painkillers. But buzz has dwindled for "Nurse Jackie" this year, so Falco may have to step aside for Showtime's newest star.

But Linney isn't a lock. She's got tough competition from a pair of actresses who have never won before and submitted strong episodes. Amy Poehler, nominated twice before for "Saturday Night Live" and then last year for NBC's "Parks and Recreation," is back this year with her fourth career nod, and she submitted the "Flu Season" episode of "Parks," in which she comes down with the flu and struggles her way through an important public event. It's a broad, slapstick-heavy episode without the gravitas of Laura Linney, but Poehler's altered-state performance might remind voters fondly of Lucille Ball's famous "Lucy Does a TV Commercial" episode of "I Love Lucy," in which she gets drunk selling "Vitameatavegamin."

Martha Plimpton is another major contender. She plays Virginia, the grandmother of a newborn on Fox's "Raising Hope," and she submitted "Say Cheese," in which she struggles to corral her family for a perfect family photo. It's a broadly comic, manic performance, but also sympathetic, after Virginia discovers that her perfect family photo was taken unexpectedly by a red-light traffic camera.

Another fresh Emmy winner of best comedy actress?

If a recent Emmy voting trend holds, forget Tina Fey ("30 Rock") or Edie Falco ("Nurse Jackie") winning the award for lead comedy actress. They've already bagged the category in the past. The champ will be one of the other four nominees: Laura Linney ("The Big C"), Melissa McCarthy ("Mike and Molly"), Martha Plimpton ("Raising Hope") or Amy Poehler ("Parks and Recreation").

For the last 10 years, a different winner has claimed the category every time. No one has repeated. Patricia Heaton ("Everybody Loves Raymond") began the trend toward solo victors in 2001. Subsequent recipients: Jennifer Aniston ("Friends"), Debra Messing ("Will and Grace"), Sarah Jessica Parker ("Sex and the City"), Felicity Huffman ("Desperate Housewives"), Julia Louis-Dreyfus ("The New Adventures of Old Christine"), America Ferrera ("Ugly Betty"), Fey, Toni Collette ("United States of Tara") and Falco.

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-- Tom O'Neil

Photo: Melissa McCarthy and Billy Gardell in "Mike and Molly." Credit: CBS

What will be the big jaw-dropper among Emmy nominees?

You can always count on the Emmy nominations to include shockeroos. What will they be Thursday morning when the list is revealed? Commenters on our message boards have these hunches (below) when asked to name just one. See more predictions here.

Beau Salant: A Showtime woman will not get nominated. My prediction: Laura Linney.

blueprint: No Betty White.

thesmartone: Wendie Mallick in Supporting Actress

Moviemjk102: "Fringe" breaking through in a big way -- Series, Lead Actress, Supporting Actor.

problemchild: No Chris Colfer, "Glee" (Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series)

oopschoice: Patricia Heaton is in, while Martha Plimpton is out.

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-- Tom O'Neil

Photo credit: Academy of Television Arts & Sciences

The highs and lows of the Emmy races: The five most predictable categories

 
It's often difficult to predict which show or performance will win an Emmy. That's what makes the awards ceremony so exciting. But sometimes, in some categories, the results are a gimme. Here's a look at the five most predictable categories.

Best variety series: Last year, “The Daily Show” won best variety series for an eighth consecutive year even though it submitted a ho-hum episode to Emmy jurors. Surprisingly, it beat such fierce competition as Conan O’Brien’s farewell on the “Tonight” show and “The Colbert Report’s” visit to a U.S. Army base in Iraq where President Obama appeared via satellite. Forget it. “Daily Show” can’t lose.

Guest drama actress: Speaking of unstoppable winning streaks, “Law & Order: SVU” seems to have a lock on the guest drama actress category. It has won for the last four years (Leslie Caron, Cynthia Nixon, Ellyn Burstyn, Ann-Margret) and offers a lot of top candidates this go around: Shohreh Aghdashloo, Maria Bello, Joan Cusack, Marcia Gay Harden, Jennifer Love Hewitt, Christine Lahti, Debra Messing and Rita Wilson.