Awards Tracker

All things Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tonys

Category: Justin Bieber

100% perfect Grammy Award predictions: Top four races

Grammy predictions are a dangerous thing. They attempt to crawl into the brains of notorious bohemians (members of the music industry) who exult in being contrarians. However, certain voting patterns have emerged over the years that help us to forecast what will happen when trophies are doled out tonight. My conclusion: an Eminem sweep and a Grammy breakthrough by Drake.

Grammmy


ALBUM OF THE YEAR NOMINEES
"The Suburbs," Arcade Fire
"Recovery," Eminem
"Need You Now," Lady Antebellum
"The Fame Monster," Lady Gaga
"Teenage Dream," Katy Perry

PREDICTION: "Recovery"
POSSIBLE SPOILER: "The Fame Monster"

Only three contenders have a prayer: Eminem, Lady Antebellum and Lady Gaga. Eminem has lost twice in the past ("The Marshall Mathers LP," "The Eminem Show"), but he'll finally triumph because his album has the most noble theme: rally from substance abuse.

Lady Gaga, let's be honest, deserves this, but her album is old news, unabashedly trashy and Grammys seem to have a secret gripe against her. Her "Bad Romance" was really the record of 2010, but it's not nominated there and Gaga wasn't even put up for best new artist in the past. The only way Lady Antebellum can win is if the trio also takes the categories for best record and song and then carry this along in a sweep.


RECORD OF THE YEAR NOMINEES
"Nothing on You," B.o.B. featuring Bruno Mars
"Love the Way You Lie," Eminem featuring Rihanna
"… You," Cee-Lo Green
"Empire State of Mind," Jay-Z featuring Alicia Keys
"Need You Now," Lady Antebellum

PREDICTION: "Love the Way You Lie"
POSSIBLE SPOILERS: "Need You Now" and "--- You"

Only one contender doesn't have a prayer: "Nothing on You." All other rivals have a real shot. I'm dismissing "Empire State of Mind" because there's a rap/R&B tune here that feels more important thanks to its message ("Love the Way You Lie") and another one that has the catchiest melody and naughtiest lyrics ("… You"). "… You" has a real shot because of who's voting: rascal members of the music industry who think naughty is nice. However, I may be under-estimating "Empire." Could regret this.

Many award pundits are betting on "Need You Now" because of the apples and orange theory of award prognostication: It's the one serious contender here (orange) in a basket of apples (rap/R&B). Often that's a smart theory to follow, but I believe "Love the Way You Lie" will take this as part of Eminem's sweep of the top three races (album, record and song). Also, it has appeal because of Rihanna's role, which is shockingly brave considering the lyrics she sings.

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Grammy predictions: Justin Bieber or Drake to win best new artist?

Our forum moderators Darrin "DoubleD" Dortch, David "Guru" Schnelwar and I aren't agreeing on much this year when predicting Grammys. We're split on who'll bag best song and record of the year (watch video of our pundit clash) plus best new artist. I can't believe that they're picking Justin Bieber, knowing full well that no teen heartthrob boy act has ever prevailed in the past -- not Chris Brown, Hanson, Kris Kross, not even the Backstreet Boys, who were so respected that they were nominated for best album of 2000.

However, I'm betting on Drake, another long shot considering the fact that no such rapper has ever won in the past -- not the solo type who's also considered to be a bit of a heartthrob. Most Awards Tracker readers agree with Dortch and Schnelwar that Bieber will triumph. The Beeb led our poll with 34% over Drake (29%).

Also watch our video on the race for best album -- a far more harmonious discussion.

-- Tom O'Neil

 


Poll: Will Justin Bieber win the Grammy for best new artist?

The Envelope's forum moderators Darrin "DoubleD" Dortch and David "Guru" Schnelwar both foresee a shocking result in the Grammy race for best new artist -- Justin Bieber, they say, will win. That's a jaw-dropper considering they concede such a victory would defy a longstanding voter bias here. Bubblegum acts don't prevail because they're not taken seriously. Dortch notes that Christina Aguilera squeaked through in the past. OK, but at least she had some small measure of something Bieber lacks utterly: critical respect. Instead, he's considered a laughingstock.

Justin Bieber Drake Grammys newsAs a result, I scoff at making such a prediction in favor of making another that's probably just as laughable: Drake. Yeah, yeah, Dortch and Schnelwar note that rap artists never win here either. True. But I agree with their assessment that the other three nominees in this category can't win for all of the reasons they cite below. This race is between Bieber and Drake. Only one has artistic credibility. Thus, he wins, I decree.

Now that I've grandstanded, let's hear what Dortch and Schnelwar have to say. Words below are their own. Then tell us what you think in our poll. Also check out our Grammy predix and polls for record of the year and  album of the year.

David "Guru" Schnelwar's Commentary: Whoever wins this year will be a first.

Esperanza Spalding is not a crossover artist and became more well-known the day the Grammy nominations were announced. We have seen the same scenario previously with Susan Tedeschi (1999) and Ledisi (2008).

Florence and the Machine received only one nomination. The last time an artist won best new artist with one nomination was in 2000 with Shelby Lynne. Before that was Milli Vanilli in 1989. It is possible, but tough odds to overcome.

A non-U.S. band has not won best new artist since the '80s (Men at Work, Culture Club and Sade). This hurts Mumford and Sons' chances.

This race is between Drake and Justin Bieber.

Bigger named rap solo artists have lost in this category: Puff Daddy (1997), 50 Cent (2003) and Kanye West (2004). Lauryn Hill won in this category, but she was more R&B than rap. Drake is nominated for three Grammys in the rap field. He could win if the Grammys honor rap in the general field.

A teen pop act aimed at girls has yet to win best new artist. Hanson (1997), Backstreet Boys (1998) and Jonas Brothers (2008) all lost in this category. Justin Bieber won best new artist at the 2010 MTV Video Music Awards and the American Music Awards. Bieber is the most well-known and best selling of the five nominees. His album surprisingly received a nomination for best pop vocal album. I am going out on a limb and predicting Justin Bieber for best new artist.

Will win: Justin Bieber
Should win: Drake
Spoiler: Drake

 

Darrin "DoubleD" Dortch's Commentary: In the last 20 years, Shelby Lynne is the only artist to win this category without any other corresponding nominations, so it'd be a huge shock if Florence and Spalding managed to win here.

Mumford & Sons are dark horses; their album is quietly selling and their song, "Little Lion Man," has done well on radio. However, Mumford & Sons missed out on some key nominations in the rock field aside from their best rock song nod. A male solo rapper has never won here so a Drake win is unlikely too. 50 Cent and Kanye West had bigger buzz and bigger sales and still lost here.

Many teen pop acts, including the Backstreet Boys, Hanson and Britney Spears, have been nominated here but few have won. In recent times, Christina Aguilera is the only bubblegum act to win here and that was over a decade ago. However, Bieber's buzz, album sales, heavy campaigning and visibility during the voting period will likely hand him a win here. Bieber's previous best new artist wins at the MTV Video Music Awards and American Music Awards are probably still fresh in voters' minds as well.

Will win: Justin Bieber
Should win: Drake
Spoiler: Mumford & Sons

 RELATED:

Poll: What will win the Grammy for album of the year?

Poll: What will win the Grammy for record of the year?

-- Tom O'Neil

Top photo: Justin Bieber. Credit: Kevin Winter / Getty Images

Bottom photo: Drake. Credit: Cash money / Universal Motown


Golden Globes: Justin Bieber grows up

Bieber Jusin Bieber, whose face is either slathered with makeup or he is just so young as to still look a bit dewy, strolled down the carpet searching for the next press op. Not reaching much higher than 5 feet, the diminutive Bieber was on the lookout for one particular woman.  Whom would he most like to meet tonight? Why, it's Megan Fox, proving the kid really is a young man after all.

 

— Nicole Sperling

Photo: Justin Bieber at the 68th Golden Globes. Credit: Reuters.



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