The highs and lows of the Emmy races: The most interesting categories

 
With more than 100 Emmy races, it’s difficult to know which contests will be the most exciting and which ones can be skipped for a bathroom break during the awards telecast. But from the way things are shaping up, here's a cheat sheet to what promise to be the five most interesting races:

Lead actor, comedy: It’s a good thing Steve Carell has a sense of humor. Even though “The Office” proved to be an Emmy darling at the start (best comedy series, 2006), Carell has lost the lead actor race five times, including once to the chap who created the original British series: Ricky Gervais (“Extras”). Now can Carell finally get the last laugh upon leaving the Yankee version? Sarah Jessica Parker was overdue for an Emmy when she ultimately prevailed for her last season on “Sex and the City.”

Drama series: Can “Mad Men” go four in a row for top drama series? Only three programs have won that trophy as many times: “Hill Street Blues” (1981-1984), “L.A. Law” (1987, 1989, 1990, 1991) and “The West Wing” (2000-2003). Its toughest rival may be “Boardwalk Empire,” which won the drama award at the Golden Globes and best ensemble at the SAG Awards. Both shows are old news, though, airing in late 2010. The usurper could be “The Good Wife.” It’s currently airing, Emmy voters love legal dramas and it’s on CBS. Most members of the academy work for broadcast networks — but a show airing on one of the Big Four hasn’t triumphed here since 2006, when “24” took it.

 

Emmy slugfest over best drama actor: Jon Hamm vs. Steve Buscemi

After three past losses for his work on "Mad Men," Jon Hamm will finally win best TV drama actor at the Emmys, according to three of the six pundits polled by Awards Tracker. The gurus are our forums' moderators, who monitor the Emmy voting process closely and believe that Hamm can finally prevail because of the emotional impact and range he displays in the Season 4 episode that he will probably submit to Emmy judges: "The Suitcase."

Our other three pundits are betting on Steve Buscemi in "Boardwalk Empire," which will certainly be a major Emmy contender. The hot new HBO series recently won best drama series at the Golden Globes, halting beat "Mad Men's" three-year winning streak, and may soon do the same at the Emmys.

For the last three years, the Emmy contest for best TV drama actor was dominated by Bryan Cranston, but he's not eligible now because "Breaking Bad" had no new episodes airing during the Emmy eligibility period that ends May 31. Five-time loser Hugh Laurie ("House M.D.") has never won. Other nominees last year included Hamm, Michael C. Hall ("Dexter"), Kyle Chandler ("Friday Night Lights") and Matthew Fox ("Lost"). All may return except Fox.

Other top contenders: Simon Baker ("The Mentalist"), Gabriel Byrne ("In Treatment"), Idris Elba ("Luther"), Charlie Hunnam ("Sons of Anarchy"), Jeremy Irons ("The Borgias"), Andrew Lincoln ("The Walking Dead"), William H. Macy ("Shameless"), Timothy Olyphant ("Justified"), Bill Paxton ("Big Love") and Tom Selleck ("Blue Bloods").

Our participating Emmy pundits: Chris Beachum, Matthew Cormier, Marcus Dixon, Darrin Dortch, Rob Licuria and Matt Noble. Below, they rank their top six predictions for best TV drama actor according to likelihood of winning (1 is most likely). Also, see their rankings for best drama series and comedy series.

-- Tom O'Neil

DRAMA ACTOR	Beachum	Cormier	Dixon	Dortch	Licuria	Noble
Steve Buscemi, "Boardwalk Empire"	2	1	1	2	1	2
Gabriel Byrne, "In Treatment"		6		3	4	6
Kyle Chandler, "Friday Night Lights"			3			5
Michael C. Hall, "Dexter"	4	2	6	5	3	3
Jon Hamm, "Mad Men"	1	3	2	1	2	1
Jeremy Irons, "The Borgias"	3				5
Hugh Laurie, "House M.D."	5	5	5	6	6	4
William H. Macy, "Shameless"	6	4	4	4

Photos, from left: Jon Hamm in "Mad Men"; Steve Buscemi in "Boardwalk Empire. Credits: AMC, HBO