In his earlier Emmy video spoofs, you've seen our rascally forums moderator Matt Noble slay "Dexter," sell "Mad Men" to TV academy voters and croon off-key over "Glee." Now he takes on "Boardwalk Empire."
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— Tom O'Neil
Here is your follow-along-at-home cheat sheet for the Primetime Emmys on Sunday night (8 p.m. PT/ET). The awards will be bestowed in this order:
1. Comedy supporting actress
2. Comedy supporting actor
3. Comedy directing
4. Comedy writing
5. Comedy actor
6. Comedy actress
7. Reality-competition series
8. Variety series writing
9. Variety series directing
10. Variety series
11. Drama writing
12. Drama supporting actress
13. Drama directing
14. Drama supporting actor
15. Drama actress
16. Drama actor
17. TV movie/miniseries writing
18. TV movie/miniseries supporting actress
19. TV movie/miniseries actor
20. TV movie/miniseries directing
21. TV movie/miniseries supporting actor
22. TV movie/miniseries actress
23. TV movie/miniseries
24. Outstanding drama series
25. Outstanding comedy series
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— Tom O'Neil
Photo: Academy of Television Arts & Sciences
More stars have been added to the lists of presenters at the Primetime Emmys. They include three champs from the Creative Arts Emmys (Loretta Devine, Paul McCrane and Gwyneth Paltrow) plus nominees Jimmy Fallon and Hugh Laurie, along with Drew Barrymore, Maria Bello, David Boreanaz, Katie Holmes, Annie Ilonzeh, Minka Kelly, Jimmy Kimmel, William H. Macy, Anna Paquin, David Spade, Rachael Taylor and Anna Torv.
They join previously announced presenters Will Arnett, Scott Caan, Don Cheadle, Bryan Cranston, Jon Cryer, Kaley Cuoco, Claire Danes, Zooey Deschanel, Ashton Kutcher, Rob Lowe, Jason O'Mara, Julianna Margulies, Melissa McCarthy, Lea Michele, Amy Poehler, Ian Somerhalder, Sofia Vergara and Kerry Washington.
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-- Tom O'Neil
Photo: Jimmy Fallon, left, and Gwyneth Paltrow. Credit: Kirk McKoy / Los Angeles Times and Jay L. Clendenin / Los Angeles Time.
Of all Hollywood showbiz awards, the Emmy is most confounding to predict because winners are chosen by small juries viewing sample episodes submitted by nominees as examples of their best work. But I've investigated all entries and I enjoy jumping off cliffs ... so here goes.
DRAMA SERIES
Prediction: "Mad Men"
Runner-up: "Boardwalk Empire"
DRAMA ACTOR
Prediction: Jon Hamm, "Mad Men"
Runner-up: Steve Buscemi, "Boardwalk Empire"
DRAMA ACTRESS
Prediction: Julianna Margulies, "The Good Wife"
Runner-up: Elisabeth Moss, "Mad Men"
DRAMA SUPPORTING ACTOR
Prediction: John Slattery, "Mad Men"
Runner-up: Josh Charles, "The Good Wife"
DRAMA SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Prediction: Margo Martindale, "Justified"
Runner-up: Christina Hendricks, "Mad Men"
COMEDY SERIES
Prediction: "Modern Family"
Runner-up: "Parks and Recreation"
COMEDY ACTOR
Prediction: Steve Carell, "The Office"
Runner-up: Jim Parsons, "The Big Bang Theory"
COMEDY ACTRESS
Prediction: Laura Linney, "The Big C"
Runner-up: Amy Poehler, "Parks and Recreation"
COMEDY SUPPORTING ACTOR
Prediction: Ty Burrell, "Modern Family"
Runner-Up: Chris Colfer, "Glee"
COMEDY SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Prediction: Jane Lynch, "Glee"
Runner-up: Betty White, "Hot in Cleveland"
TV MOVIE / MINISERIES
Prediction: "Downton Abbey"
Runner-up: "The Kennedys"
TV MOVIE / MINISERIES ACTOR
Prediction: Edgar Ramirez, "Carlos"
Runner-up: Laurence Fishburne, "Thurgood"
TV MOVIE / MINISERIES ACTRESS
Prediction: Kate Winslet, "Mildred Pierce"
Runner-up: Jean Marsh, "Upstairs, "Downstairs"
TV MOVIE / MINISERIES SUPPORTING ACTOR
Prediction: Tom Wilkinson, "The Kennedys"
Runner-up: Guy Pearce, "Mildred Pierce"
TV MOVIE / MINISERIES SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Prediction: Evan Rachel Wood, "Mildred Pierce"
Runner-up: Maggie Smith, "Downton Abbey"
REALITY-COMPETITION PROGRAM
Prediction: "Project Runway"
Runner-up: "Top Chef"
VARIETY SERIES
Prediction: "The Daily Show"
Runner-up: "Late Night With Jimmy Fallon"
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-- Tom O'Neil
Photo: Academy of Television Arts & Sciences
Poor Ed O'Neill has endured a long streak of snubs before journeying to the Emmys, but now it looks like it could pay off Sunday with the ultimate Hollywood happy ending: an Emmy win.
In 1987, the funnyman starred in Fox network's "Married with Children" as Al Bundy, a role he played for 11 long years. Not only were O'Neill and his costar Katey Sagal snubbed by Emmy voters every season for playing the rude, crude Bundys, but the sitcom entered the Emmy history books as one of the longest-running series to never win a single award.
After that series ended, O'Neill guest starred on many different shows including "The West Wing," a series with major Emmy clout. But he still never managed to wrestle up an Emmy nod himself. All of that looked to change last year when his ABC comedy "Modern Family" started attracting Emmy buzz from the moment it premiered. Unfortunately for O'Neill, that award season ended with him being the only adult cast member to be snubbed. Once again, Emmy slapped O'Neill.
When nominations were announced this year, O'Neill fans rejoiced as the actor finally received his first Emmy recognition. Was he nominated because of the Emmy backlash from last year's snub? Or did Emmy voters simply come to their senses? Whatever the case, he's up for his first trophy this year, and he even has a great shot at winning.
According to predictions at GoldDerby, O'Neill is in second place to take home the award for comedy supporting actor. Experts, editors and users have "Modern Family" costar Ty Burrell out in first place, with Chris Colfer ("Glee") in third, last year's winner Eric Stonestreet ("Modern Family") in fourth, Jesse Tyler Ferguson ("Modern Family") in fifth and Jon Cryer ("Two and a Half Men") in last place.
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-- Tom O'Neil
Left photo: Ed O'Neill in "Married ... with Children." Credit: Fox
Right photo: O'Neill in "Modern Family." Credit: ABC
Last year, most Emmy pundits foolishly believed Julianna Margulies would win lead drama actress for "The Good Wife" even though we knew she picked the wrong sample episode to be evaluated by judges. Instead of submitting the excellent pilot, she picked her subdued performance in "Threesome" and lost to Kyra Sedgwick. This year, Margulies wised up and submitted "In Sickness," in which she kicks her husband out of the house after learning that he once slept with her best friend, Kalinda (Archie Panjabi). Then she has a tearful powwow with her children and battles guest star Martha Plimpton in court. All that can be hard to beat.
But it's beatable. Also submitting a powerhouse episode is Elisabeth Moss, who promoted herself to the lead category after receiving a supporting actress nomination for "Mad Men" last year. In her submission episode, "The Suitcase," she and Jon Hamm bond, battle and get drunk while putting together an ad campaign for Samsonite.
Most Emmy watchers agree that this Emmy race is a close one between Moss and Margulies, but an unlikely contender has a better than expected chance to upset, because "The Killing's" Mireille Enos submitted a strong two-hander of her own. In her episode, "Missing," the murder investigation around which the show revolves takes a back seat when her character must search for her missing son. The episode is dominated by her and her partner (Joel Kinnaman), and though her performance is largely subdued, she has a very emotional moment near the episode's end when she breaks down in tears at a crime scene while thinking her son has been killed.
Sizing up the other candidates in this category, it would be foolish to disregard Kathy Bates. The Oscar-winning actress is a widely respected leader in the acting community, and despite nine total Emmy nominations, she's never won TV's top prize. More important, she plays a lawyer on a David E. Kelley series, "Harry's Law," and Kelley has TV's best track record when it comes to winning awards for his actors. However, her episode submission lacks the kind of stirring speechifying that won James Spader three Emmys for "The Practice" and "Boston Legal." In "Innocent Man," her character, lawyer Harriet Korn, argues for the parole of a wrongly convicted inmate.
The Emmys have announced more stars who'll present awards this weekend at the Nokia Theater on Sunday when Fox airs the kudocast (8 p.m. ET/PT). They include Don Cheadle ("House of Lies"), Kaley Cuoco ("Big Bang Theory"), Rob Lowe ("Parks and Recreation"), Melissa McCarthy ("Mike & Molly"), Lea Michele ("Glee"), Jason O'Mara ("Terra Nova") and Ian Somerhalder ("Vampire Diaries"). "The Big Bang Theory," "Parks and Recreation" and "Glee" are nominated for best comedy series and McCarthy is up for lead comedy actress.
They join previously announced presenters Will Arnett, Zooey Deschanel, Ashton Kutcher, Julianna Margulies, Amy Poehler and Sofia Vergara.
-- Tom O'Neil
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Photos: "Glee" (Fox) and "Mike and Molly" (CBS)
Now that we're getting glimpses of the new fall TV season, it's time for award prognosticators to stick out thin, trembling necks and make some bold forecasts. Which program do you think has the best shot at winning future Emmys? Some show great promise, such as "Boss," starring Kelsey Grammer, whose "Frasier" holds the record for most Emmy victories of all series in TV history (37).
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-- Tom O'Neil
Photo: Kelsey Grammer in "Boss." Credit: Starz
"Mad Men" has won the Emmy for drama series three years in a row. In fact, it's never lost. Thus the pressure is on the AMC series to do what only three other programs have achieved: "The West Wing," "L.A. Law" and ""Hill Street Blues." Sure, voting has closed now, but our forums moderator Matt Noble unveils four ad campaigns the series could've used to pitch voters.
— Tom O'Neil
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The vast majority of Emmy pundits have been betting on "Mad Men" to win best drama series for a fourth year in a row, but now they must be worried after witnessing its wipe-out at the Creative Arts Awards on Saturday. Not only did "Mad Men" win just one trophy (hairstyling), but its chief rival, "Boardwalk Empire," ruled the kudofest with seven. All "Boardwalk Empire" needs to tie "The West Wing's" 2000 record for most victories in one year is two more at next Sunday's Emmycast. Surely, it'll bag best director for Martin Scorsese. Steve Buscemi has an excellent shot at best actor and ... hmmm ... what about that top prize for best series? Suddenly, it all appears to be within HBO's grasp.
That shouldn't be surprising considering that "Boardwalk Empire" won best drama series at the Golden Globes plus best drama ensemble at the SAG Awards, but pundits have been pooh-poohing its Emmy hopes because original episodes were last seen on TV in December.
That seems hugely unfair considering that original episodes of "Mad Men" were last seen on TV in October, but most pundits shrug that off, probably because "Mad Men" was able to overcome the same problem in the past. However, each time "Mad Men" won, AMC aired new episodes during the voting period and Emmy voters couldn't drive down Sunset Boulevard without spying Don Draper and the gang smiling down from billboards overhead and from the sides of buses gliding by. Not true this time. Series creator Matt Weiner's protracted negotiations with the network caused production delays, which limited all that advertising.
Will that matter? Maybe. But maybe not. Back in 2002, "Mad Men" merely won one prize at the Creative Arts Emmys and it just so happened to be the same solo category it won this year –- hairstyling -– and it still managed to prevail as best drama series. This year "Mad Men" clearly has widespread support across the academy since it leads with 12 nominations, compared with 11 for "Boardwalk."
Personally, I think "Mad Men" will still win. It has class and Emmy voters are snobs. That's why they kept picking "The West Wing" for four years in a row. It's no coincidence that the TV series with the most wins in all categories (37) is about two snooty brothers bickering about opera and vintage wines: "Frasier." "Boardwalk Empire" has "The Sopranos" problem. It's about thugs and, remember, "The Sopranos" lost its first year in the race for best drama series to "The Practice," a classy show about attorneys.
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