My fearless, 100% perfect Tony Award nominations predictions

Because Tony Award nominations will be unveiled Tuesday morning, it's time for kudos pundits to stick out thin, trembling necks. Below are my predictions for the top categories.

Notice the odd numbers of contenders per race. At the Tonys, there are only four nominees for best play, revival of a play and musical. However, considering how few musical revivals were staged on Broadway this season, that category will have only two. Meanwhile, there will be five nominees in the acting slots –- except lead musical actress. Because there were only six contenders eligible, there will be only four nominees.

The four rivals for best play look pretty solid. In the race for best musical, "The Scottsboro Boys" is vulnerable because it has closed, so it's possible that "Catch Me If You Can" gets in.

Compare my predix to those of other top Tony pundits at GoldDerby. Here is a full list of all rivals eligible in the top races.

There's no mystery surrounding what will win best musical ("Book of Mormon") and best musical revival ("Anything Goes"), but most other races are wide open.

-- Tom O'Neil

BEST PLAY
"Good People"
"Jerusalem"
"The Mother… With the Hat"
"War Horse"

Possible
"Bengal Tiger at the Baghdad Zoo"
"Brief Encounter"
"Ghetto Klown"

BEST MUSICAL
"Book of Mormon"
"Priscilla Queen of the Desert"
"The Scottsboro Boys"
"Sister Act"

Possible
"Bloody Bloody Andrew Jackson"
"Catch Me If You Can"
"The People in the Picture"

BEST PLAY REVIVAL
"Born Yesterday"
"The Importance of Being Earnest"
"The Merchant of Venice"
"The Normal Heart"

Possible
"Arcadia"
"Driving Miss Daisy"
"House of Blue Leaves"

Sizing up the Tony Awards: Who's ahead to win?

The cut-off for Tony Awards eligibility is still a few weeks away (April 28), some top contenders like "Jerusalem" still haven't opened and the Tonys administration committee hasn't yet ruled on whether performers such as Norbert Leo Butz ("Catch Me If You Can") will compete in the lead or featured categories. But that shouldn't stop us from making bold early prognostications before the announcement of nominations on May 3 and wins on June 12.

Soon I will break down each of these contests with further analysis, but for now here's an overview of the top categories. The only race that's sewn up is best musical: "Book of Mormon" can't lose, of course.

-- Tom O'Neil

BEST PLAY
(Front-runners)
"Bengal Tiger at the Baghdad Zoo"
"Good People"
"Jerusalem"
"The Mother... with the Hat"
"War Horse"

(Possible)
"Brief Encounter"
"Lombardi"

BEST MUSICAL
(Front-runners)
"Book of Mormon"
"Catch Me if You Can"
"Priscilla Queen of the Desert"
"Sister Act"

(Possible)
"Bloody Bloody Andrew Jackson"
"The People in the Picture"
"The Scottsboro Boys"

BEST REVIVAL OF A PLAY
"Arcadia"
"Driving Miss Daisy"
"The Importance of Being Earnest"
"The Merchant of Venice"
"The Normal Heart"

(Possible)
"Born Yesterday"
"House of Blue Leaves"
"La Bete"

 

Will 'Book of Mormon' be snubbed at the Tony Awards?

Who would have guessed that the chief creative talents responsible for the hottest musical on Broadway would also be the mavericks behind "South Park," the potty-mouthed animated series on Comedy Central that has spit-roasted every sacred cow within sight?

Now "South Park" creators Matt Stone and Trey Parker are widely considered to be the front-runners to win best musical at the Tony Awards for "The Book of Mormon," but beware: Their history at showbiz peer-group awards is rocky.

On the plus side, "The Book of Mormon" opened last week at the Eugene O'Neill Theatre on Broadway to rapturous reviews. The L.A. Times described "Mormon" as "boisterously outrageous" with "the propulsive verve of a runaway hit," while the notoriously cranky New York Times veritably gushed with praise: "hie thee hence, nonbelievers (and believers too), to 'The Book of Mormon,' and feast upon its sweetness."

One potential downside — lots and lots of "South Park"-style blue humor — has been smoothed over by the glowing notices. Plus, Parker and Stone cowrote the book, music and lyrics with Robert Lopez, who shared a Tony in 2004 for the score of another hit musical with a sweet heart and a foul mouth: "Avenue Q." The show is produced by Scott Rudin, who's won Tonys for staging best musical "Passion" (1994), best plays "Copenhagen" (2000), "The History Boys" (2006), "Doubt" (2005), "The Goat, or Who Is Sylvia?" (2002) and "God of Carnage" (2009) plus best play revival with "Fences" (2010).

"South Park" has 10 Emmy nominations for best animated series and four wins. That's not too shabby, but neither Parker nor Stone has ever been nominated for their prodigious voiceover work, nor have they been cited for comedy writing or penning any of the show's numerous musical ditties. It can't be the ribald material. Heck, Justin Timberlake shared a recent Emmy for penning "…. in a Box" for "Saturday Night Live."

(Emmy voters are notoriously stodgy about that voiceover category. Despite giving life to many iconic characters on "The Simpsons" for nearly 20 years, longtime castmate Harry Shearer didn't earn a nomination until 2009.)