Sizing up the Tony Awards: Who's ahead to win?

The cut-off for Tony Awards eligibility is still a few weeks away (April 28), some top contenders like "Jerusalem" still haven't opened and the Tonys administration committee hasn't yet ruled on whether performers such as Norbert Leo Butz ("Catch Me If You Can") will compete in the lead or featured categories. But that shouldn't stop us from making bold early prognostications before the announcement of nominations on May 3 and wins on June 12.

Soon I will break down each of these contests with further analysis, but for now here's an overview of the top categories. The only race that's sewn up is best musical: "Book of Mormon" can't lose, of course.

-- Tom O'Neil

BEST PLAY
(Front-runners)
"Bengal Tiger at the Baghdad Zoo"
"Good People"
"Jerusalem"
"The Mother... with the Hat"
"War Horse"

(Possible)
"Brief Encounter"
"Lombardi"

BEST MUSICAL
(Front-runners)
"Book of Mormon"
"Catch Me if You Can"
"Priscilla Queen of the Desert"
"Sister Act"

(Possible)
"Bloody Bloody Andrew Jackson"
"The People in the Picture"
"The Scottsboro Boys"

BEST REVIVAL OF A PLAY
"Arcadia"
"Driving Miss Daisy"
"The Importance of Being Earnest"
"The Merchant of Venice"
"The Normal Heart"

(Possible)
"Born Yesterday"
"House of Blue Leaves"
"La Bete"

 

BESTY REVIVAL OF A MUSICAL
"Anything Goes"
"How to Succeed in Business Without Really Trying"

BEST ACTOR IN A PLAY
(Front-runners)
James Earl Jones, "Driving Miss Daisy"
Joe Mantello, "The Normal Heart"
Al Pacino, "The Merchant of Venice"
Mark Rylance, "Jerusalem"
Robin Williams, "Bengal Tiger at the Baghdad Zoo"

(Possible)
Brian Bedford, "The Importance of Being Earnest"
Tristan Sturrock, "Brief Encounter"
Jeffrey Wright, "A Free Man of Color"

BEST ACTRESS IN A PLAY
(Front-runners)
Nina Arianda, "Born Yesterday"
Edie Falco, "The House of Blue Leaves"
Cherry Jones, "Mrs. Warren's Profession"
Frances McDormand, "Good People"
Kathleen Turner, "High"

(Possible)
Lily Rabe, "The Merchant of Venice"
Vanessa Redgrave, "Driving Miss Daisy"
Hannah Yelland, "Brief Encounter"


BEST ACTOR IN A MUSICAL
(Front-runners)
Norbert Leo Butz, "Catch Me If You Can" (featured?)
Josh Gad, "The Book of Mormon"
Daniel Radicliffe, "How to Succeed in Business Without Really Trying"
Andrew Rannells, "The Book of Mormon"
Tony Sheldon, "Priscilla Queen of the Desert"
Aaron Tveit, "Catch Me if You Can"

(Possible)
Colin Donnell, "Anything Goes"
Joshua Henry, "The Scottsboro Boys"
Benjamin Walker, "Bloody Bloody Andrew Jackson"


BEST ACTRESS IN A MUSICAL
(Front-runners)
Sutton Foster, "Anything Goes"
Rose Hemingway, "How to Succeed in Business Without Really Trying"
Sherie Rene Scott, "Women on the Verge of Nervous Breakdown"
Patina Miller, "Sister Act"
Donna Murphy, "The People in the Picture"

(Possible)
Beth Leavel, "Baby It's You"

Photo: "The Book of Mormon" / Credit: Eugene O'Neill Theatre

Comments

[Dempewolf]

Why wasn't Aaron Tveit nominated for Catch Me If You Can? He is exactly the sort of performer who would be attractive to a younger Broadway audience and that is a very desirable demographic.

[GL]

I love when Hollywood actors show up at these things. It shows that they are serious about being actors. I hate when something is for sure, though I heard incredible things about the Book of Mormon. I hope we see many upsets though^>6

[office space]

Lily Rabe go for it girl !!!

[Beth]

I love me some Cherry Jones, but there is no way she's getting a nomination. That spot will go to Lily Rabe, who gave the performance of the season amidst personal tragedy.

[DLBnyc]

Oh, Honey, trust me: You are wrong regarding Best Actor Play. Brian Bedford is most definitely not on the "Maybe" list. It's going to be Bedford or Pacino...though possibly Rylance for either "La Bete" or, more likely, "Jerusalem." But the rest of your predictions...right on target. Go, Sutton Foster!

[ChaChaheels]

My predicts:

Best Musical: Priscilla Queen of the Desert, The Book of Mormon, Catch Me If You Can, Bloody, Bloody Andrew Jackson

Best Play: War Horse, Lombardi, Bengal Tiger..., The Mother..ker with the Hat

Best Revival Musical (no brainer only two entries): How to Succeed..., Anything Goes

Best Revival Play: Driving Miss Daisy, The Merchant of Venice, That Championship Season, Arcadia