Oscars mystery: Why isn't Natalie Portman considered a shoo-in to win?
"Why isn't Natalie Portman considered a lock?" asks our forums moderator David "Guru" Schnelwar about her Oscar chances to win lead actress. He dug up research about past award patterns that suggests the odds are overwhelmingly in her favor.
Portman ("Black Swan") and Colin Firth ("The King's Speech") have won all of these awards this derby season: Golden Globe, Screen Actors Guild, Critics' Choice and BAFTA. With only one exception, all actors who have pulled off that feat in the past went on to bag the Oscar next. However, some notable gurus, such as our Buzzmeter pundits Anne Thompson and Peter Travers, are nonetheless betting on Annette Bening ("The Kids Are All Right") to prevail.
The only star who didn't win the Oscar after sweeping those precursor prizes: Russell Crowe ("A Beautiful Mind"). He probably would've won the Academy Award too, but he lost the sympathy of voters when he lost his temper and attacked a BAFTA producer, thus throwing the lead actor race to Denzel Washington ("Training Day").
Portman has behaved most graciously throughout this awards season, of course, but there are several good reasons why she could be tripped up by Bening, who is: 1) a three-time past loser overdue to win; 2) a member of the academy's Board of Governors; 3) a heterosexual star who plays gay, which earned Oscar gold for Sean Penn ("Milk") and Tom Hanks ("Philadelphia").
Below: The actors who swept their awards season by winning the Oscar, Golden Globe, Critics' Choice, SAG and BAFTA Awards.
BEST ACTOR
1996 - Geoffrey Rush, "Shine"
2004 - Jamie Foxx, "Ray"
2005 - Philip Seymour Hoffman, "Capote"
2006 - Forest Whitaker, "The Last King of Scotland"
2007 - Daniel Day Lewis, "There Will Be Blood"
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
2007 - Javier Bardem, "No Country for Old Men"
2008 - Heath Ledger, "The Dark Knight"
2009 - Christoph Waltz, "Inglourious Basterds"
BEST ACTRESS
2000 - Julia Roberts, "Erin Brockovich"
2005 - Reese Witherspoon, "Walk the Line"
2006 - Helen Mirren, "The Queen"
2008 - Kate Winslet, "The Reader"
2003 - Renee Zellweger, "Cold Mountain"
2006 - Jennifer Hudson, "Dreamgirls"
2009 - Mo'Nique, "Precious"
-- Tom O'Neil
Photo: A scene from "Black Swan." Credit: Fox Searchlight
Whatever. I'm in the minority opinion that Natalie Portman's performance in Black Swan was one-note, boring and, ultimately, grating. It's been a long time since I threw up my hands after a character (seemingly) died and said, "Well, thank GOD for that!" I couldn't wait for it to end.
Posted by: James S. | February 25, 2011 at 12:26 PM
OscarPredictor, you say that Annette "lost fair and square during those three times. She was not robbed." I beg to differ. She most certainly should have won for "Being Julia" over Hillary Swank for "Million Dollar Baby". Just another entry to the list of Oscar mistakes:
Julia Roberts winning for "Erin Brockovich"
"Crash" beating "Brokeback Mountain"
Reese Witherspoon winning for "Walk the Line" (Supporting, MAYBE, but not lead) Felicity Huffman definitely deserved it over Reese.
I wonder if any mistakes will be added this year?
Posted by: Joe | February 24, 2011 at 02:51 PM
Considering the ammount of miserable performances that got awards based on last-minute press (I'm thinking of Julia Roberts childish plea to Newsweek that resulted in Denzel Washington winning for the abyssmal "Training Day", Morgan Freeman's win for "Million Dollar Baby" for HIS body of work , after many nominations, and the worst...Sissy Spacek winning ALL THREE MAJOR awards (Globe, SAG and BAFTA) and then losing to a pitiful performance by Halle Berry--because she's Halle Berry.)...the likelihood of a Bening upset is quite strong. Natalie Portman's performance in the overrated "Swan" is a performance that rode on the same emotion for two hours..there was no range...Bening's ( a remarkable actress--don't believe me see "Running With Scissors") performances (albeit few) are always strong and multi-layered without being out of control showy...It is possible this could be her year. But to producers Natalie Portman may look better in the paper the next day (I'm thinking of the travesty of the Reese Witherspoon win ("Wlak the Line") over Felicity Huffman ("Transamerica") a few years ago...how ridiculous that was......anything can happen
Posted by: Jeffrey | February 24, 2011 at 09:02 AM
Bening would be the worst decision since Crash.
Posted by: Atze | February 23, 2011 at 09:26 AM
Oh Please! Stop.
could be, but will not be.
It’s just marketing.
Natalie Portman will win – Best Actress in a Leading Role.
That’s all.
xoxo
Posted by: Patricia | February 23, 2011 at 04:56 AM
Natalie Portman is going to win. If she was upset, It would be by Jennifer Lawrence, not Anette Bening.
Posted by: Mark | February 23, 2011 at 02:53 AM
I, for one, am still bitter about Star Wars I, II, III.
Posted by: Richard Chen | February 22, 2011 at 11:09 PM
Natalie Portman is winning. I feel like all the talk about Annette triumphing is either wishful thinking or a bunch of people who are bored with/don't like Portman and are thirsty for an upset. When Black Swan first came out people were singing praises, and now that she's won a chunk of the awards people are screaming 'overrated'. All factors are suggesting a Portman win. How can you deny BFCA/GG/SAG/BAFTA wins and over $100 million Black Swan box office returns? Not to mention the woman is having the year of her life, and is ubiquitous as ever with like 5 movies coming out in 2011 and magazine covers etc. That, mixed with the whole back story of how long and tedious it was for her to train for the film, I'd be damn shocked if anyone but Portman gets the Oscar.
Posted by: alpal | February 22, 2011 at 10:13 PM
A Hollywood communist will win over Luke and Leia's Mother. Who could expect anything else?
Posted by: Ursus Indomitus | February 22, 2011 at 08:21 PM
Natalie Portman deserves the Oscar.
Posted by: Lela | February 22, 2011 at 07:10 PM
1) a three-time past loser overdue to win...
Except that she lost fair and square during those three times. She was not robbed.
2) a member of the academy's Board of Governors...
I honestly don't think how this could affect her positively?
3) a heterosexual star who plays gay, which earned Oscar gold for Sean Penn ("Milk") and Tom Hanks ("Philadelphia")...
Except all those instances they are men. I'm not sure if lesbians are as accepted as gay men in the industry. Also, Sean Penn played a real-life character and had to emulate that person and did so to a "T". Oscar loves that crap. Tom Hanks, a very popular actor which Bening is not, played an AIDS victim so there were that tragic elements to his role. Bening's is just a run-of-the-mill mom.
Overall, I just don't think Bening is all that sympathetic in Hollywood. Not saying that she's unlikeable, but the impression is that she married herself into royalty and has been rather sporadic in appearing in movies during this period. She acts when she chooses and things come rather easily for her.
Posted by: OscarPredictor | February 22, 2011 at 05:50 PM
If the Academy loved Bening she would have won by now. Besides, Bening doesn't have all that much screen time in "The Kids Are All Right." Natalie has been nominated before for "Closer," and "Black Swan" is her tour de force. I can't imagine the Academy not awarding her and giving it to Bening for her ensemble work.
Also, I believe Russell Crowe would have won for "A Beautiful Mind" is he hadn't just won for "Gladiator."
Posted by: Doug | February 22, 2011 at 05:36 PM
Why - Because the fix is in for Bening.
This is probably her last and best shot at the oscar.
Posted by: East Coast Scout | February 22, 2011 at 03:33 PM
I really don't know how the Academy votes. Last year Gabourey Sidibe lost to Sandra Bullock. Now, I love Sandra as much as the next person, and "The Blind Side" was a great movie, but she was just being a slightly exaggerated version of...well...herself. Blonde, albeit, but still. That is not acting. Gabourey completely immersed herself into her role in "Precious", where you would swear you were looking at two completely different people. THAT, my friends, is ACTING! Gabby was robbed.
I haven't seen any of the nominees this year, but I would hate to see Annette Bening get it just because she didn't get it the last few times she was nominated. (I believe, if I remember correctly, two of the times she was beat out by the same person...THERE'S a clue!)
Posted by: K.C. | February 22, 2011 at 09:31 AM
Annette Bening is a remarkable actress. She definitely deserves the Oscar. Portman is a class actand did a great job, but it's not her time yet. I'm a huge Portman fan, but hoping for the upset.
P.S. Off the subject, still upset Angela Basset didn't win for What's Love Got to Do With It :(
Posted by: Ty | February 22, 2011 at 09:30 AM
Al Pacino won an undeserved Oscar for "Scent of a Woman" for a hammy, over the top performance in a year when Denzel Washington should have received the Best Actor award for "Malcolm X," because he was "due." It's memories of that travesty that make some people itchy about the whole Annette Benning-Natalie Portman race.
Posted by: Brett | February 22, 2011 at 06:35 AM
Annette Bening TOTALLY deserves the Oscar, for her complete body of work....
However my vote (If I had one) would still go to her, for her performance in the "Kids are All Right" - at my home I was impressed by the fact that my three sons and husband, actually enjoyed watching this film with me.
My attempts to broaden the "movie" horizon are usually met with a LOT of wisecracks.
Posted by: ali | February 22, 2011 at 04:02 AM
Oh please Talia. The country is going to hell and you think there will be an outcry if an actor loses an award?
BTW I think Jennifer Lawrence and Bening deserve to win over Portman whose film was so ridiculous! Portman will win thought because it's all about the hype and the oscar voters always pick the sexy young actress over the veteran. And Portman has lesbian action in her film so why use the gay excuse for Bening and not her lol.
Posted by: Lilith | February 21, 2011 at 11:10 PM
Natalie had one of the most amazing performances that I have ever seen. If she doesn't win I will lose all faith in Academy and will not watch the awards again. The award shows have become way too politicized. They should focus on the talent and performance alone.
Natalie Portman deserves this Oscar!
Posted by: Emma | February 21, 2011 at 10:32 PM
Banksy is nominated in the documentary category. He should not have been nominated and should not win. He committed animal cruelty in his film and lied about it. Photo evidence in the link above.
Posted by: Animal Advocates | February 21, 2011 at 07:59 PM
A Statistical Analysis (found here: http://www.moviegamut.com/2011/02/final-countdown.html) suggests that Annette Bening has about a 0.27% chance of winning to Portman's 99.67%. To quote, "If Annette Bening wins this award, as so many seem to be suggesting is possible, it will be unquestionably the biggest upset in Oscar history."
Posted by: Brian | February 21, 2011 at 07:53 PM
Manufacturing drama to make us watch a show whose outcome was decided months in advance? Her performance is over-hyped, over-praised, and overrated? Her oscar campaign has purposefully downplayed the contributions of real ballerina Sarah Lane and the cgi head replacement that was done repeatedly in the movie and exaggerated the dancing done by Ms. Portman? She all of sudden became the chattiest, most open actress after being the most private when the oscar was finally, inevitably dangled in front of her? Bening's performance was less showy but harder and required more acting rather than dancing talent? She hasn't been all that gracious actually as evidenced by her GG speech and Oscar luncheon snarkiness? I don't know, pick whichever one you want, you're the experts.
Posted by: Soraya | February 21, 2011 at 04:13 PM
Portman doesn't get the straigh/gay thing? Or does she lose points for swinging both ways in Black Swan?
Posted by: Robert | February 21, 2011 at 04:02 PM
Isn't this about who deserves to win, not what they've already won? Why should she be considered a shoo-in? I would say that she's a shoo-in because of the luridness of her role and the film in general. Hollywood eats that stuff up.
Posted by: Sophie | February 21, 2011 at 03:42 PM
Because 'whispering' isn't a performance. It's an affectation.
Posted by: Jay | February 21, 2011 at 03:14 PM