Will the SAG Award winners repeat at the Oscars?
The odds are excellent that the four stars who just won Screen Actors Guild Awards in the lead and supporting categories will repeat at the Oscars next. The four champs lined up exactly last year and have agreed 67% of the time in the past.
Comparing the prizes is tricky because contenders can be out of sync. For example, Kate Winslet won lead actress at the Oscars for "The Reader" two years ago after winning in the supporting slot at SAG. The opposite happened to Benicio del Toro in 2000, prevailing in supporting at the Oscars and lead at SAG for "Traffic."
Comparing the awards exactly, category per category, here's how they stack up: 43 SAG champs repeated at the Oscars in the same 64 races.
The award for best ensemble performanace has been bestowed 15 times. It's agreed with best picture at the Oscars on seven occasions.
— Tom O'Neil
Photo: Kate Winslet at the 2008 SAG Awards. Credit: Mark J. Terrill / Associated Press.