Poll: Which SAG winner is most likely to lose at the Oscars?

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Historically speaking, about three out of four SAG Award champs go on to repeat at the Oscars every year. Assuming the same pattern continues, who is most vulnerable among the most recent crop of guild victors?

I think it’s Melissa Leo (‘The Fighter’), who could get bumped by Hailee Steinfeld (‘True Grit’). A good case can be made for Christian Bale (‘The Fighter’), though. If ‘The King’s Speech’ bandwagon keeps gathering momentum, Geoffrey Rush could cop a ride and toss Bale overboard.

Or maybe it’s Natalie Portman (‘Black Swan’)? After all, Annette Bening is a queen of Hollywood overdue for her Oscar crown, and many industry leaders would like to see her get it for ‘The Kids Are All Right.’ She plays gay in it — that’s how Sean Penn (‘Milk’) and Tom Hanks (‘Philadelphia’) won Academy Awards.

Are we all agreed that no one — absolutely no one — is seizing the lead actor crown from Colin Firth (‘The King’s Speech’)?

— Tom O’Neil