Poll: What will win the SAG Award for best ensemble?

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Eight days ago, before ‘The King’s Speech’ won the Producers Guild of America Award and led with the most Oscar nominations, we asked you what will win that key Screen Actors Guild Award for best ensemble this Sunday. Poll results: ‘The Fighter’ (33%), ‘The Social Network’ (29%), ‘The King’s Speech’ (21%), ‘The Kids Are All Right’ (8%), ‘Black Swan’ (7%).

Now let’s ask again. The SAG ensemble award is considered to be so important because it has a reputation for predicting best picture at the Oscars, but, truth be told, it’s a tenuous link. Over the past 15 years, they’ve overlapped seven times. However, two of those occasions were hugely significant because the SAG victories foretold upsets to come at the Oscars: ‘Shakespeare in Love’ (1998) and ‘Crash’ (2005). At this point, ‘The King’s Speech’ is gaining such momentum that its Oscar victory as best picture wouldn’t be considered an upset. Indeed, most pundits favor it to win.

According to Gold Derby’s poll of 19 experts, eight predict ‘The Social Network’ win will best ensemble, seven pick ‘The Fighter,’ four (including me) say ‘The King’s Speech.’

-- Tom O’Neil