Oscar nominations poll: Which film will win the Oscar for best picture?

"The Social Network" may have won the vast majority of precursor awards for best picture, but "The King's Speech" just rallied spectacularly at the Oscars, where it reigns with the most nominations (12). Over the last several decades, the movie with the most bids has won best picture 75% of the time. Does that mean it will stop "The Social Network" juggernaut?

A big surprise among contenders was the strength of "True Grit," which scored 10 nominations. That's two more than "Social Network"! Everybody underestimated the wily western at the box office too, where it hit the mother lode ($138 million). Can it strike major Oscar gold next?

Recently, there was a lot of talk about a possible knockout punch by "The Fighter." Voters sure do love boxing flicks ("Million Dollar Baby," "Rocky"). Is it still in the ring? And, if so, that means there are a lot of heavyweight contenders for best picture. If they split their vote, maybe another strong rival with a passionate fan base can break through -- like "Black Swan"?

-- Tom O'Neil

Photos: "The King's Speech" (Weinstein), "The Social Network" (Columbia)

Comments

[MICHAEL LEWIS]

Regarding the Motion Picture Academy awarding Best Picture Oscars to remakes, it did indeed with such films as Gigi (1958) and The Departed (2006). If you consider My Fair Lady (1964) as a remake, it was first a Broadway musical version of the play Pygmalion, whose film version was nominated for Best Picture for 1938! So 2010's True Grit is in good company, ChaChaheels!

[Brett]

The Academy "likes to spread them around," except on those occasions where they send a movie home with Oscars in just about every category for which it receives nominations. In other words, anybody here who thinks they have their finger on the pulse of what the Academy will or will not do will only be right by sheer luck or coincidence.

[scoot]

It's a 3-horse race between The Social Network, The King's Speech and True Grit, don't think the other films stand a chance to win best picture

[scoot]

I think it's a three-horse race between The Social Network, The King's Speech and True Grit

[John Kay]

I am really happy about the surprise nomination for Michelle Williams. Her performance in 'Blue Valentine' was so real I forgot I was watching an actress. I had to keep reminding myself the film wasn't a voyeuristic reality show exploiting this couple's relationship.

[ChaChaheels]

The Academy has never given an award for Best Pic to a remake, so True Grit may be a first or more likely will go empty-handed. The Social Network racked up the majority of critics' awards, but that might be enough for TSN and AMPAS might go with another film for Best Pic. TSN is a good film but not exactly the Best Pic of the year...The King's Speech is good also but has weak moments within the film...The Black Swan and Inception are too much of fantasy/horror thrillers...a little over the top for AMPAS...The Fighter and Toy Story 3 have a better chance to upset over all. Winter's Bones and 127 Hours are the weak entries of the 10 films nominated...I say an upset is very likely here...

[swf]

The Academy, like the Brentwood T-ball games that gives every child who participates a trophy, likes to spead them around. So if you believe that Firth will win best actor and Bale best supporting, that covers Speech and Fighter. Portman for best actress covers Swan. Toy will get animated, Inception special effects and Grit is retro and Network is today. I'll go with today.