Should we be skeptical of the sudden Oscar love for ‘The King’s Speech’?

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Just a week ago, nearly all Oscarologists predicted ‘The Social Network’ will win best picture, but now most have suddenly switched allegiance to ‘The King’s Speech.’ Out of 22 Oscar pundits polled by Gold Derby last week, only four backed ‘The King’s Speech,’ 17 picked ‘The Social Network’ and one held out hope for ‘Inception.’ Now, out of 18 Academy Awards pundits participating in the most recent poll, 11 opted for ‘The King’s Speech,’ six for ‘The Social Network’ and there’s still one hold-out for ‘Inception.’

Two things have occurred to cause the sudden shift: 1.) ‘The King’s Speech’s’ best-picture victory at the Producers Guild of America on Saturday and 2.) the film scoring the most Oscar nominations on Tuesday. The latter news wasn’t a surprise. Every Oscar pundit on the planet knew that ‘The King’s Speech’ would have the most bids because it’s a royal historical drama, thus guaranteed nominations in all those tech categories such as best costume design and art direction. But the ‘experts’ all knew this last week when they were predicting ‘The Social Network’ will ultimately claim the best-picture crown. So what’s going on?

On one hand, we finally see blatant evidence of something widely suspected: These experts aren’t really as cocksure as they appear. In fact, they can be ridiculously fickle sometimes, jumping on every bandwagon that races through Oscarland, often crashing into dead ends. But this new ‘King’s Speech’ bandwagon may be real, steady and continue across the best-picture line ahead. Here’s why.

Yes, ‘The Social Network’ swept through all of the early awards bestowed by journalists: members of groups such as the National Society of Film Critics and foreign journalists belonging to the Hollywood Foreign Press Assn. These are media wags, who have a sensibility sometimes very different from Oscar voters. They like gritty fare. Academy members –- surprise -– have a heart and sometimes like more sentimental films such as ‘Titanic’ and ‘A Beautiful Mind.’ And maybe ‘The King’s Speech.

‘The Social Network’ has always had a problem in this derby. It doesn’t have a central character to root for. It’s a movie about weasels betraying each other. It may hit too close to home in Hollywood where academy members do that every day for a living. Oscar voters want to empathize with the central character of movies they choose for best picture, even when they pick gritty films such as last year’s ‘The Hurt Locker.’ Jeremy Renner‘s character was an arrogant maverick, true, but viewers still rooted for him to dodge death as he juggled ticking bombs. ‘The King’s Speech’ has a very strong rooting factor. It’s a warmly told tale of a reluctant king with huge responsibility thrust upon him. As he struggles to overcome a simple stammer, viewers of the film urge him on to nail every syllable he strains to utter.

Still, we’d be wise to be skeptical of this sudden Oscarologist love for ‘The King’s Speech.’ None of these pundits predict that its helmer Tom Hooper will win the Directors Guild of America Award on Saturday –- or the equivalent Oscar next month, two things usually essential for a film to win best picture.

Also, there’s good reason to believe that ‘The King’s Speech’ victory at the Producers Guild of America could be a fluke. Sometimes those voters go for heart-tuggers that don’t repeat at the Oscars -– like ‘Little Miss Sunshine’ and ‘Moulin Rouge!’ In fact, PGA has been wrong seven times in 20 years.

What may be ultimately telling –- or not -– is Sunday’s Screen Actors Guild Awards. Last week, most pundits predicted that ‘The Fighter’ will win SAG’s ensemble award -– its equivalent to best picture. But beware: ‘The King’s Speech’ could easily rule. It’s only one of two films that sent DVD screeners to the full guild membership. The other was ‘The Social Network.’

-- Tom O’Neil