Golden Globes versus Oscars: How often do they agree?

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In the past, the Golden Globes have usually been a fairly accurate predictor of who’ll win Oscars. Still true?

Our forums moderator Rob Licuria just ran the stats, and here’s what he discovered. Over the last 65 years, the two awards have agreed on best picture a majority of times, but not recently. Only once in the last six years has the same movie won the top trophy at both shows: ‘Slumdog Millionaire’ (2008).

Remember, the Globes have two sets of awards -- separate categories for dramas and comedies/musicals. Over the last 20 years, one of the winners of the two best actor Globes went on to win the equivalent Oscar 13 times. The Globes and Oscars overlapped four times in the last five years, the one exception being 2008 when Mickey Rourke (‘The Wrestler’) won the Globe and Sean Penn (‘Milk’) won the Oscar.

During the same 20 years, the two awards agreed on best actress 12 times. Over the last five years, they concurred 100% if you allow for the confusion between Kate Winslet‘s two roles in 2008. At the Globes she won in lead for ‘Revolutionary Road’ and in supporting for ‘The Reader.’

The same number of supporting actors prevailed at both prizes over the same period of time. Among supporting actresses, the agreement rate is 11 out of 20 years.

Over the last several decades, the overlap is about 60%-70% in the acting races. Last year, the agreement rate was 100% in the acting contests, but they clashed on best picture. The Globes went with ‘Avatar’ for best drama picture and ‘The Hangover’ for best comedy/musical picture. The Oscars opted for ‘The Hurt Locker.’

-- Tom O’Neil