Golden Globe predictions: ‘King’s Speech’ or ‘Social Network’ to reign?

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Predicting the Golden Globes is hard because the awards are bestowed by such a quirky group of foreign journalists with unusual tastes. But let’s try it anyway. First the film categories.

-- Tom O’Neil

X = predicted winner

PICTURE (DRAMA)
‘Black Swan’
‘The Fighter’
‘Inception’
‘The King’s Speech’
X - ‘The Social Network’

PREDICTION: This is a close contest between ‘King’s Speech’ and ‘Social Network.’ Members of the Hollywood Foreign Press Assn. often like foreign-set films, especially when they involve the British aristocracy, as evidenced by past victories here by ‘Atonement,’ ‘The English Patient’ and ‘Sense and Sensibility.’ But sometimes the foreigners strive to do the opposite – to prove how in tune they are with hip Yankee fare such as ‘Avatar’ last year – and ‘Social Network’ this year? I think so, yes.

PICTURE (COMEDY/MUSICAL)
‘Alice in Wonderland’
‘Burlesque’
X - ‘The Kids Are All Right’
‘Red’
‘The Tourist’

PREDICTION: ‘Kids’ is the only movie on this list that has any hope of an Oscar nomination for best picture, so it’ll probably prevail. But is it really a comedy?

DIRECTOR
Darren Aronofsky, ‘Black Swan’
X - David Fincher, ‘Social Network’
Tom Hooper, ‘The King’s Speech’
Christopher Nolan, ‘Inception’
David O. Russell, ‘The Fighter’

PREDICTION: Unlike Oscar voters, Globe voters often spread the wealth and reward helmers of films that don’t win best picture. But I don’t think that’s going to happen this year.

ACTOR (DRAMA)
Jesse Eisenberg, ‘The Social Network’
X - Colin Firth, ‘The King’s Speech’
James Franco, ‘127 Hours’
Ryan Gosling, ‘Blue Valentine’
Mark Wahlberg, ‘The Fighter’

PREDICTION: Firth hasn’t lost a single award yet this season – and he’s not going to lose this one, or any other, en route to the Oscar crown.

ACTRESS (DRAMA)
Halle Berry, ‘Frankie and Alice’
Nicole Kidman, ‘Rabbit Hole’
Jennifer Lawrence, ‘Winter’s Bone’
X - Natalie Portman, ‘Black Swan’
Michelle Williams, ‘Blue Valentine’

PREDICTION: Portman is lucky that her chief Oscar foe – Bening – is shoved off to the separate Globes category for comedy/musical actresses. That makes her victory here easier, but not a cinch. Kidman is a darling of the Hollywood foreign press, who’ve given her three Globes in the past and may be tempted to give her a new one for what is arguably the best performance of her impressive career. But I’m still betting on Portman because I think Globers like to foreshadow the Oscars.

ACTOR (COMEDY/MUSICAL)
X - Johnny Depp, ‘Alice in Wonderland’
Johnny Depp, ‘The Tourist’
Paul Giamatti, ‘Barney’s Version’
Jake Gyllenhaal, ‘Love and Other Drugs’
Kevin Spacey, ‘Casino Jack’

PREDICTION: The Globes love Depp so much that they nominated him twice in this race. He’s got an excellent chance to triumph for his wacky turn as the Mad Hatter, but watch out for Giamatti and Spacey. Sometimes voters like to pick artsy roles in little-seen films just to prove how smart they are. I’m betting that Globers will go for star wattage, as usual.

ACTRESS (COMEDY/MUSICAL)
X - Annette Bening, ‘The Kids Are All Right’
Anne Hathaway, ‘Love and Other Drugs’
Angelina Jolie, ‘The Tourist’
Julianne Moore, ‘The Kids Are All Right’
Emma Stone, ‘Easy A’

PREDICTION: Bening won this race a few years ago for ‘Being Julia.’ Being an Oscar front-runner now, she can’t lose here again.

SUPPORTING ACTOR
Christian Bale, ‘The Fighter’
X - Michael Douglas, ‘Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps’
Andrew Garfield, ‘The Social Network’
Jeremy Renner, ‘The Town’
Geoffrey Rush, ‘The King’s Speech’

PREDICTION: Bale just won a bunch of critics’ awards and looks like he’s Oscar-bound, but now he faces his toughest foe, Douglas, at turf most favorable to Douglas, who’s so beloved by these voters that he’s won three times in the past. How can they resist giving him a big hug now that he’s struggling publicly with cancer?

SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams, ‘The Fighter’
Helena Bonham Carter, ‘The King’s Speech’
Mila Kunis, ‘Black Swan’
X - Melissa Leo, ‘The Fighter’
Jacki Weaver, ‘Animal Kingdom’

PREDICTION: Tossup. Everybody here has a real shot to win. Eenie, meenie, miney, Leo.

SCREENPLAY
Danny Boyle and Simon Beaufoy, ‘127 Hours’
Lisa Cholodenko and Stuart Blumberg, ‘The Kids Are All Right’
Christopher Nolan, ‘Inception’
David Seidler, ‘The King’s Speech’
X - Aaron Sorkin, ‘The Social Network’

PREDICTION: An easy win for the masterpiece by Hollywood’s hottest script writer.

SCORE
Alexandre Desplat, ‘The King’s Speech’
Danny Elfman, ‘Alice in Wonderland’
A.R. Rahman, ‘127 Hours’
Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross, ‘The Social Network’
X - Hans Zimmer, ‘Inception’

PREDICTION: Zimmer’s score is the most memorable, haunting and hummable. But ‘Social Network’ could could catch a ride on its awards juggernaut.

SONG
‘Bound to You’ (music by Samuel Dixon, lyrics by Christina Aguilera and Sia Furler), ‘Burlesque’
‘Coming Home’ (music and lyrics by Bob DiPiero, Tom Douglas, Hillary Lindsey and Troy Verges), ‘Country Strong’
‘I See the Light’ (music by Alan Menken, lyrics by Glenn Slater), ‘Tangled’
‘There’s a Place for Us’ (music and lyrics by Carrie Underwood, David Hodges and Hillary Lindsey), ‘The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader’
X - ‘You Haven’t Seen the Last of Me’ (music and lyrics by Diane Warren), ‘Burlesque’

PREDICTION: I’m going with the anthem packed with the most defiance that’s crooned by the biggest diva (Cher).

ANIMATED PICTURE
‘Despicable Me’
‘How to Train Your Dragon’
‘Illusionist’
‘Tangled’
X - ‘Toy Story 3’

PREDICTION: ‘Toy Story 2’ won as top musical/comedy years ago, back before there was a separate category for animation. Part 3 is even better, so it will have an easy victory here.

FOREIGN-LANGUAGE PICTURE
X - ‘Biutiful,’ Mexico/Spain
‘The Concert,’ France
‘The Edge,’ Russia
‘I Am Love,’ Italy
‘In a Better World,’ Denmark

PREDICTION: ‘Biutiful’ is the greatest film, but it’s hard to watch Javier Bardem’s ghastly battle with cancer. Did HFPA members watch their DVD screeners? If not, then ‘I Am Love’ will triumph.