SAG Awards poll: Who will win best lead actress?

Most pundits believe that the battle over lead actress at the Oscars is a close contest between Annette Bening ("The Kids Are All Right") and Natalie Portman ("Black Swan"). At the Screen Actors Guild, one of them is likely to emerge as the official front-runner. Which one?

Could there be a spoiler? If votes split between Bening and Portman, yes, and Nicole Kidman("Rabbit Hole") could pull off an upset. She's never won a SAG Award. She wasn't even nominated for "Moulin Rouge" and when she scored a bid for "The Hours," she lost the prize to Renee Zellweger ("Chicago").

Hilary Swank ("Conviction") pulled off a huge surprise getting nominated here. Pulling off a win would be a miracle. Jennifer Lawrence ("Winter's Bone") gets the token bid for this year's hot, new, unknown star of a critically acclaimed indie. That's sufficient.

-- Tom O'Neil

Left photo: Natalie Portman in "Black Swan." Credit: Fox Searchlight

Right photo: Annette Bening in "The Kids Are All Right." Credit: Focus Features